My own guess is that Brady is doing much better in his gubernatorial race than his Republican teammate Kirk in the Senate race because of the dissatisfaction of conservatives with Kirk.
I’ve seen this speculation before among conservatives, so I’m not trying to single out Byrne here. But the argument doesn’t really hold up if you look deeper into the polls. Byrne was referring to the most recent Rasmussen polling, so let’s look at the pollster’s crosstabs, with leaners, among conservatives…
It’s 75 percent of conservatives for Brady without leaners and 69 percent for Kirk. Little to no difference in the split.
Public Policy Polling’s latest crosstabs for conservatives…
Brady 70%
Kirk: 66%
Again, Kirk is doing slightly worse than Brady, but not all that much. It certainly doesn’t explain the huge difference in their respective races with their Democratic opponents. As you already know, Rasmussen has the leads at 13% for Brady and 4% for Kirk (both totals include leaners). PPP had Brady winning by 9 and Giannoulias ahead by 2.
* So, why is there such a difference between the head-to-heads? Well, for one, Quinn is a bumbling incumbent in an anti-incumbent year who ran twice with Rod Blagojevich, has a $13 billion deficit and 10+ percent unemployment rate and is encumbered with a 63 percent job disapproval rating. The Senate seat is open, so neither men are defined as incumbents and Kirk has been damaged as much so far by his own problems as Giannoulias has. Brady is still mostly an unknown quantity, and people don’t seem to care because Quinn is so bad.
* The crosstabs on party and gender are kinda all over the place. Rasmussen has Brady getting far more Republican support than Kirk, but PPP has it almost the same. Rasmussen also has Brady getting much more support from women than Kirk, but, again, PPP has it much closer.
Your thoughts?
…Adding… The Sun-Times has now posted a story about the latest Rasmussen poll, which was released yesterday.
* Democratic Congressman Bill Foster’s new TV ad features his children and even his ex-wife. Rate it…
* Rudy Giuliani gets the quote of the day for his whack at Alexi Giannoulias: “The only experience this guy has with crime seems to be that his bank was loaning money to criminals.” Listen…
* When in doubt, attack the messenger. Republican congressional candidate Bobby Schilling, who owns a pizzeria, says he knows more than the Congressional Budget Office when it comes to returning federal income tax levels to the Bill Clinton era…
Schilling says he doesn’t think extending the tax cuts will cost the treasury at all.
He says the tax cuts will stimulate enough revenues to pay for themselves.
“The CBO, I don’t believe to be credible,” he said.
Yep, and the earth is flat.
And Schilling’s opponent, incumbent Democrat Phil Hare, doesn’t want to use that tax cash to pay down the nation’s budget deficit…
U.S. Rep. Phil Hare, D-Ill., says now is not the time to extend tax breaks for the wealthy, who he says have “done real well” over the past 10 years. That $700 billion, he says, would be better devoted to building new roads, bridges and railroads.
With the Republican Party tacking right and the Democratic Party hanging a left, the two men running for the 16th House District present a refreshing change of pace. U.S. Rep. Don Manzullo of Egan and Freeport Mayor George Gaulrapp, the Democratic challenger, discussed issues for an hour and a half Monday at the Editorial Board. Sparks did not fly, and the men seem to like each other.
That niceness could be because Gaulrapp has no chance whatsoever of winning.
Thomas Fitzgerald, chief justice of the Supreme Court of Illinois, informed his colleagues Monday that he has Parkinson’s Disease and will leave the court Oct. 25.
On Fitzgerald’s recommendation, the other justices voted to appoint Appellate Justice Mary Jane Theis to replace him for a two-year term beginning Oct. 26.
“I don’t not want to do anything to hurt the court or the people it serves,” Fitzgerald said Monday through a spokesman. “Right now I am fully capable of discharging my duties. I don’t know how long it will be true.”
Fitzgerald, 69, was a former prosecutor and the longtime presiding judge of the Cook County Circuit Court’s Criminal Division at 26th and California before being elected to the state’s high court 10 years ago. As chief justice, he presided over Gov. Blagojevich’s impeachment trial in the state legislature.
Best wishes to Justice Fitzgerald, who served his state well.
* The Question: Should state supreme court justices be appointed by the governor and confirmed by the Senate (like the federal system) rather than elected? Explain.
* It’s already almost impossible to convince even people who understand these things that the state’s new capital spending is affordable in light of the state’s crushing budget deficit. Gov. Pat Quinn isn’t helping matters much with stuff like this…
Despite the budget deficits in Illinois, Governor Pat Quinn is optimistic that if Missouri doesn’t find a way to help build a new stadium for the St. Louis Rams in the next decade, his state could become a player.
Teachers are being laid off by the thousands, crucial social service organizations aren’t being paid, but we’re gonna help some millionaire sports owners from across the river (OK, the new, unapproved to date owner is from Illinois, but the team is still across the river) build an expensive new stadium that’ll be used 8 times a year? Great. Wonderful idea, governor. Keep up the good work. You’re not undercutting your position whatsoever.
If fairness and competitive advantage for border communities were the only factors on which to judge Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady’s call for ending the state sales tax on gasoline, it would be easy to say, “Go for it!” But there is another factor — a more compelling factor, at this point — and that’s revenue. […]
Brady argues that the revenue lost by eliminating the sales tax on gasoline would be made up by travelers buying other items in the convenience stores that are part of many of today’s gas stations. That might be true in communities near bordering states — we emphasize the “might” — but it would make little difference in other parts of the state.
Brady has formed a border commission run by his lt. governor nominee Jason Plummer. Border issues are legitimate grounds for debate because we have such long borders and we abut several metropolitan areas across the lines. But this idea was tried under George Ryan and pretty much universally denounced as a failure…
A six-month break on sales taxes on gasoline in 2001 did not trigger an increase in other sales, according to a study by the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.
One reason is pay at the pump, which is even more prevalent now.
* In other news, the Gaming Board apparently screwed up and now video gaming has been postponed for another four months because of it…
Bar patrons hoping to gamble on video gaming machines in Illinois may have to wait until next summer for the opportunity. […]
This August, the Illinois Gaming Board bidded a contract to a company, Scientific Games International, to help develop a communications system for video gaming.
Earlier this month, the board retracted that contract and will redo the bidding process at a date to be determined.
The gaming board bid out the system at the end of last year, and awarded it to Scientific Games International in May, sealing the deal with a contract estimated at about $90 million in August. Yet competing Greek-based Intralot complained its bid was actually lower after filing a Freedom of Information Act request later that month and looking the final bids over.
The gaming board issued a release over the weekend confirming “miscalculations were made, due, in part, to assumptions made by the gaming board and by vendors that were not uniform and not verified.” Parts of the bid that were actually included in the Intralot offer were re-added by mistake and applied to its total cost.
O’Shea said the new bidding process would proceed from scratch, and “it would be open to anyone,” not just those two companies.
Great. Just great. Nice job, Gaming Board.
* Related and a roundup…
* Why do most cigarette smokers tolerate massive state tax increases?
* State, U.S. invest in broadband through La Salle County
* Quinn no longer coming to Central groundbreaking: But according to the governor’s published schedule released last night, he will be in Chicago at 1:30 p.m. to announce a capital project at the University of Illinois at Chicago.
* Governor Quinn Breaks Ground on $26 Million Project to Redevelop Brownfield Site in East Peoria
Street Extension to Create Jobs, Stimulate Local Economy
*** UPDATE 1 *** The editor of the American Spectator, Bob Tyrrell, says he wants to run for mayor. He wouldn’t be your usual Chicago candidate. One of his favorite people is apparently Conrad Black, the guy who stripped the Chicago Sun-Times of its cash and wound up in prison, where he wrote columns for Tyrrell’s magazine.
Meanwhile, a little closer to reality, but not much, Ald. Bob Fioretti has begun collecting petition signatures.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Rasmussen polled Emanuel and Daley statewide…
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that just 40% of Likely Voters in President Obama’s home state have a favorable opinion of the man he chose as his White House chief of staff. Forty-six percent (46%) view Emanuel unfavorably, as he considers leaving his job in Washington, DC to run for mayor of Chicago. These findings include 19% who share a Very Favorable opinion of him and 32% who have a Very Unfavorable one. […]
Sixty-five percent (65%) of Democrats in Illinois view Emanuel positively, while 77% of Republicans and 53% of voters not affiliated with either party have a negative impression of him. […]
As for the man he is reportedly interested in replacing, longtime Chicago Democratic Mayor Richard Daley is viewed favorably by 50% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 41%. This includes 23% who have a Very Favorable impression and 22% with a Very Unfavorable one.
State Senator Kwame Raoul, who represents President Barack Obama‘s old legislative district, said Tuesday he is going against the grain and opting not to run for mayor, in part because he doesn’t think he could raise the money needed for a competitive bid. Raoul said last week that he was considering entering the race.
“I have been getting a lot of requests to run from people, and it is extremely flattering and I am thinking about it,” Hoffman told the Chicago News Cooperative. “But the main thing is whether it is the right time for us. We have a little boy at home who just turned three and having just come off this [U.S. Senate] campaign, there are lots of other things to think about in terms of the race, but things I have been focusing on are personal.” […]
Hoffman said he has not put a deadline on his decision but said he would have to make one “soon.”
The Chicago City Council could be in for its biggest turnover in decades — with as many as 20 seats changing hands — thanks to a surge in voter turnout tied to the wide-open mayoral race, alderman and political observers warned Monday.
Why? Just keep reading the story…
Chicago has had 50 aldermen since 1923. Since that time, the biggest Council turnover occurred in 1931, when 24 new aldermen were swept into office, along with a new mayor and city clerk.
Washington was accompanied by 15 new aldermen. In 1991, there were 13 new aldermen. Four years ago, there were five.
Retirements alone will bring in several new aldermen, but 20 new ones? I know lots of people are talking about a huge turnover, but that would be tough to do. Even with a coordinated campaign by labor unions, there was only a fraction of that turnover four years ago. Still, there is a good reason why so many aldermen are nervous about this upcoming mayor’s race. They mostly suck at what they do, and voters know it.
As pastor of one of the South Side’s largest congregations, Rev. Meeks believes homosexuality is morally wrong. He says that teaching comes from the Christian Bible and the revealed Word of God. He opposes abortion for the same reason. […]
In a telephone interview, Meeks at first declined to answer questions about his long-standing opposition to abortion and gay rights. “I don’t want to get into divisive issues, or talk about hypotheticals,” he said.
Meeks said abortion is not an issue that would normally be addressed by either the Mayor of Chicago or the City Council. City officials, though, would deal with certain gay rights issues, including how police would treat “hate crimes,” whether to register civil unions and what rights to grant city employees with same-sex partners.
“Now, if I were sitting around bored with nothing to do, that stuff might come up,” Meeks said. “But I expect to be so busy with schools, crime and budget problems during my first term that I wouldn’t have any time.”
The openly-gay State Rep. Harris (D-Chicago) said he was not impressed. “Oh, great. So, our right to basic equality would depend on his whim? That is not acceptable.”
If Meeks makes it into the runoff, the city’s decades-old black/liberal alliance, which pretty much broke during the John/Todd Stroger campaigns and was only temporarily repaired by Barack Obama, will be endangered yet again.
Also, as Progress Illinois notes, the city council does occasionally dip its toes into the abortion issue, like when it passed the abortion clinic bubble zone ordinance.
* A blast from the past reemerges. Carol Moseley-Braun wants to be mayor…
Braun, who now owns an organic food company, is currently interested in hearing from the community and believes she needs at least two million dollars in support to run an effective campaign, according to sources. On Sunday, political operative Billy Paige held a meeting with supporters to gauge the feasibility of a campaign.
Braun is already supported by political activist Gloria Steinem.
“I think people are prepared to support the most qualified person, without regard to race and gender,” she told me. “My qualifications should win the day.
“Just to show you how things work in life, last month I started having conversations with the people who wanted to buy into the company, and in the middle of that Daley announces.
“I am positioned perfectly to do this. Who would have thought it?”
Braun has already signed up former Channel 5 reporter Renee Ferguson as her spokesperson.
Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas said Monday she is thinking about running for mayor.
“Yes, I am considering it,” said Pappas, joining the growing field of might-be candidates in the wake of Mayor Daley’s announcement last week that he won’t seek another term. “I’ve got great countywide, citywide numbers.”
On Monday, I found Kathy Posner, a Chicago civic leader, who was called by Emanuel’s pollster on Saturday.
She told me the 20-minute survey asked about Emanuel; Ald. Brendan Reilly (42nd); David Hoffman, the former city inspector general who lost a Democratic Senate primary bid; Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart and state Sen. James Meeks.
Posner said there was a query about Daley’s job rating and what city issues are important: jobs, police, etc.
After running through some positives about Emanuel — his congressional career, his work as Obama’s chief of staff — Emanuel tested some potential negatives: his onetime friendship with former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and how Emanuel made millions as an investment banker with City Hall connections. There was also a question about Emanuel and convicted political fixer Tony Rezko.
But don’t forget: It’s going to be dangerous to be the front-runner in this race.
Just look at how quickly various forces went on the attack against Emanuel. There was muttering about Dart at last week’s City Council meeting, too, but it was more restrained.
If the other contenders gang up on Dart, there’s still no telling who could slide to the front.
This has to be one of the most hard hitting ads Hotline On Call has seen so far this cycle: Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL) is up with a new ad that attacks Iraq war vet Adam Kinzinger (R) for supporting free trade agreements.
The ad features a series of heartfelt testimonials from people who lost their jobs. “It’s real hard to explain to my wife why I was losing my job,” says one. “You get cut off at the knees.”
In the final testimonial, the speaker levels a direct attack at Kinzinger as the screen goes black.
“Young man, you have no idea what you’re doing,” he says.
This is a Halvorson ad, but the DCCC has reportedly reduced its ad buy for the Chicago area.
…Adding… The NRCC responds…
“This ad is a farce: it’s the policies of Washington Democrats like Debbie Halvorson that have been forcing jobs overseas with higher taxes and job-killing mandates. Unlike career politician Debbie Halvorson, Adam Kinzinger is committed to putting an end to the Democrats’ agenda so that we can finally create jobs and grow the economy.” — Tom Erickson, NRCC spokesman
* Roundup…
* IL-10: Bob Dold’s Amateur Hour on Channel 64.81.157.18 slated for cancelation Nov. 2: A 10-second investigation into what else user 64.81.157.18 has done at Wikipedia reveals that the same Dold for Congress computer has also repeatedly fouled up Dan Seals’ Wikipedia article with juvenile acts like surreptitiously changing his party affiliation from Democratic to Green, etc. as far back as July of this year.
The top essay score is 12. Illinois students scored an average 7.9, down slightly from 8 in 2009, but highest in the country.
Still, with results from all parts of the writing test combined, Illinois’ average writing score slid to 577, from 583 in 2009.
Likewise, Illinois’ average reading score dipped to 585, from 588 in 2009; and the average math score dropped to 600, from 604 in 2009. Each test is graded on a scale from 200 to 800 points.
Mary Fergus, a spokeswoman for the Illinois State Board of Education, noted that fewer than 6 percent of the state’s students take the SAT.
This year’s more than 6,100 Catholic high school seniors in Cook and Lake counties averaged a score of 22.8 on the 36-point ACT, up 0.1 percentage point from 2009, the Archdiocese of Chicago’s Catholic School office disclosed Monday.
Meanwhile, nearly 25,000 Chicago public school seniors averaged a score of 17.3 — up 0.3 percentage points from the previous year.
Two other measures are aimed in part at Joe Berrios, a county tax appeals commissioner and Democratic county assessor nominee. He faces a challenge from Commissioner Forrest Claypool, a Chicago Democrat running as an independent.
“I have no problem identifying Mr. Berrios as someone who has conflicts of interest that are currently legal,” Simpson, a former Chicago alderman, said, adding later, “I do support Mr. Claypool in the assessor’s race.”
That got an immediate response from Chicago Democratic commissioners loyal to Berrios, who is also chairman of the Cook County Democratic Party.
“All of this is political,” said Commissioner Deborah Sims. “It’s not fair.”
“This is not a democracy,” added Commissioner Joseph Mario Moreno. “It’s a hypocrisy.”
Mayor Daley wants to give the Chicago City Colleges a $1.8 million subsidy to purchase the Harold Washington Cultural Center in Bronzeville, a move former Ald. Dorothy Tillman (3rd) calls “totally illegal” and “political harassment.”
The influx of tax-increment-financing (TIF) funds would pave the way for City Colleges to purchase the center’s foreclosed mortgage, take the 1,000-seat auditorium at 47th and King Drive out of the hands of a non-profit run by Tillman’s daughter and turn it into an education and performing arts center.
If Mayor Daley had chosen to seek a seventh term — and once again drawn only nominal opposition — the Feb. 22 turn-out could have been under 42 percent, as it has been in the last four mayoral elections.
That’s down from over 60 percent 1989 and 47.8 percent in 1991.
But, with a wide-open mayoral seat for the first time in 64 years attracting interest from scores of candidates, turnout could double the 33 percent that went to the polls four years ago.
Insiders say changing the appointment process of a replacement state’s attorney is a reach because state election code outlines that process. The law calls for the chairman to make a recommendation to the board. If the board and chairman can’t agree, the chief judge can make an appointment until the issue is resolved by the board and chairman, said current State’s Attorney Joseph Birkett.
“I’ve got some mixed emotions here,” Zaranti said after winning the appointment. “For me, this is not time to celebrate. This is not something I’m prepared to do. It’s with great honor and with a heavy heart I accept this opportunity.”
Zaranti, who was elected to the council in 2007, previously served two terms as a park district commissioner. He said he was excited to “continue the work (Lopez) started.”
Finance director KathyCarr said the amount fluctuates each year and the 2011 contribution is adding to a projected $1.3 million deficit Moline staffers now are working to reduce and eliminate for 2011.
A total of $2.67 million is recommended to be levied for firefighter pensions and $2.28 million for police pensions. That is only the city’s contribution for 2011.
* Visitation will be 2-8 pm Wednesday at Blackburn-Giegerich-Sonntag Funeral Home, 1500 Black Road, Joliet, and from 4-8 pm Friday at Gent Funeral Home, 2409 State St. Alton. Mass is at 10 am Saturday at Saints Peter & Paul Catholic Church, 717 State St., Alton.
While recuperating from a recent surgery, Matt Ryan recalled his days as campaign manager for one-time candidate for governor Paul Vallas, when he learned that Vallas had gone to Haiti to work on earthquake relief efforts.
“He went to Haiti? I couldn’t get him to fly to Carbondale,” Mr. Ryan said with a laugh, recalling the former candidate’s fear of flying and his narrow loss after being massively outspent by Rod Blagojevich in the 2002 Democratic primary.
Matthew Edward Ryan, 53, who most recently was chief of staff to Will County Executive Larry Walsh, died today at RML Specialty Hospital in Hinsdale of complications from cancer.
In his storied career Mr. Ryan aggressively promoted his clients and helped shape Illinois politics at the municipal, county, state and federal levels. When the workday ended he shifted from political operative to storyteller, whose laughter belied the endless detail of running campaigns and managing politicians’ agendas.
The Bolingbrook Sun also has a story. You can continue commenting on our open post here.
O, all the comrades e’er I had,
They’re sorry for my going away.
And all the sweethearts e’er I had,
They’d wished me one more day to stay.
But since it falls unto my lot,
That I should rise and you should not,
I gently rise and softly call,
Goodnight and joy be with you all.
