* My syndicated newspaper column drills down into the numbers to see what’s behind those polls released last week…
While the Republicans say the pollsters are contacting the wrong people, the fact remains that three polls released last week had the Illinois governor’s race within 2 percentage points. And five polls released in the past month have shown it to be a single-digit race.
The Chicago Tribune’s pollster had Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn leading Republican state Sen. Bill Brady 39 percent to 38 percent last week, which is a narrower margin than its 5-point Brady lead a month ago. A CNN/Time poll had Brady up by 2 points, and a Democratic Governor’s Association poll had Brady up by 1 point. Public Policy Polling had Brady with a 7-point lead.
The Republicans say the “universe” is skewed on all these polls. They believe that Republicans actually outnumber Democrats come Election Day by a narrow margin. At the very least, they say, those other polls just skew too far Democratic.
If the Republicans are right, it would be the first time their party would outnumber or come close to outnumbering Democrats in any Illinois election in a very long time. This is a weird year, so nobody really knows who’s correct at the moment. Still, you need to keep the GOP’s strong objections very much in mind as we head into the final weeks of this campaign.
The other thing to remember is Quinn’s horrific job-approval rating. The average of the four polls that asked the job-approval question (CNN did not) was a 26 percent approval rating for Quinn, while 58.5 percent disapproved of his performance. He’s already vastly outperforming his approval rating, so it will be darned tough to push his own numbers up much higher unless people start feeling better about him soon.
Still, you simply cannot ignore five polls in a month showing Quinn within single digits of Brady. Whether the governor can pull this off is another story.
Why does this race suddenly look so close? For months, polls have shown it to be a blowout for Brady.
I now firmly believe this race has been much closer than I thought for weeks, if not months. The reason why I and others got this wrong is very bad polling.
Every poll published from the beginning of August to before last week had Brady leading Quinn by anywhere from 9 to 13 points.
Well, actually, one poll did show a close race. At the beginning of last month, the Chicago Tribune’s poll had Brady leading Quinn by only 5 points.
That Tribune poll was so different from the others that it essentially was ignored. But then last week, those other polls came out that showed a tighter race than widely assumed, and I noticed something curious. Pollsters who did not include millionaire independent candidate Scott Lee Cohen’s name in their polls showed a far wider gap between Brady and Quinn than those who did.
Last month’s Tribune poll included Cohen’s name in the mix, as well as the other candidates. The polls released last week that showed a tight race included his name as well.
The average of all five polls during the past month that included Cohen’s name is 38.6 percent for Brady and 35.8 percent for Quinn - a roughly 3-point split. The two-month average for polls taken that didn’t use Cohen’s name was 46.4 for Brady to 35.8 for Quinn - an almost 11-point race.
Notice that Quinn’s average is exactly the same in both sets of numbers. Brady’s is different. Why?
In a two-person race, when you attack an opponent, a portion of your opponent’s supporters eventually will cross over to your side. But in races where lots of people are running, when you attack your main opponent, then his or her supporters might end up with one of the other “minor” candidates.
If you drill down into the polls, it appears that significant numbers of women voters left Brady after Quinn’s early attacks and moved to Cohen. Now, I know that sounds absolutely insane, considering the domestic abuse allegations involving Cohen and his arrest for allegedly holding a knife to his girlfriend’s throat. But lots of people still don’t know who and what Cohen is. And the news media has all but stopped reminding them.
Some top Republicans have been increasingly jittery that Cohen might be making this thing a little too close for jubilation. They appear to have been right.
More craziness to come, I’m sure.
* Levi Moore adds…
Finally, maybe Mayor Daley’s retirement from public office did not suck all the oxygen out of the state-wide races - as many pundits predicted. It was thought that the free-for-all for the Chicago Mayor’s Office would shift all attention and resources to that election. But, it may have merely caused Chicagoans to focus more on politics in general.
The last theory is purely speculative. But, the way things looked for him a few weeks ago, Pat Quinn needed any help he could get. With one month to go, the Illinois governor’s race may be less about change and more about whether Illinois’ typical Democrat/liberal base goes to the polls.
That’s certainly part of it. The oxygen was surely sucked out of the coverage, but maybe not out of the interest.
Thoughts?
* Related…
* Brady discounts polls that show Quinn gaining ground: “We don’t really believe it’s tightening,” Brady told reporters at a tea party event in front of the Statehouse. “Our internal data … shows that our momentum is growing every day. Our internal polls continue to show a strong, growing support for us.
* Brady rallies local support: “I have a problem with red light cameras being used too extensively,” he said.
* VIDEO: Sen Brady at Capitol October 3, 2010
* Brady bus tour here Monday
* Northwest Herald: Governor: Bill Brady: For small-business owners, the backbone of our local communities, Brady proposes a five-year moratorium on federal payroll taxes and the creation of a Main Street Small Business Advisory Board to help the owners of small and fledgling businesses get off the ground and grow.
* Civil unions, concealed carry could confront next governor: “Bill believes marriage is the union of one man and one woman,” said Brady campaign spokeswoman Patty Schuh. “Our current laws reflect that.”
* Journal-Standard: Candidates need to step up: The report complains that 32 percent of the state inspection reports reviewed by the federal EPA were not detailed enough to determine if a confined-animal operation was complying with environmental laws; that state enforcement actions were rarely taken, and in more than 60 percent of the cases reviewed by the feds the state failed to get compliance even after violations were found. The report contends that the Illinois EPA is slow to respond to citizen complaints or take formal action against big feedlots and dairies that violate federal and state environmental laws.
* Business backs Brady while unions line up behind Quinn
* Tax policies display sharp differences for Quinn, Brady: While Brady is currently proposing elimination of the estate tax, “we don’t know what the feds are going to do,” Schuh said. “If they set it for estates over $10 million, maybe we’d take a look at it.”
* Erickson: Who will be the better business governor?
- Pat collins - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:15 am:
If the above analysis is correct, the remedy is for a LOT of Brady ads explainging Cohen’s child support payment history, documented issues with his ex and his “GF” on Lifetime, etc.
Cheap buys, gets to the heart of the issue, so to speak.
- matt - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:15 am:
Of course it’s tightening. However, just as in the primary, the polls aren’t reflecting the “screw Chicago” factor outside Chicago. Don’t know about the suburbs, but it won’t be tied. Never met someone who wasn’t a party hack who actually likes Pat Quinn.
- anon - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:16 am:
If you drill down into the polls, it appears that significant numbers of women voters left Brady after Quinn’s early attacks and moved to Cohen. Now, I know that sounds absolutely insane, considering the domestic abuse allegations involving Cohen and his arrest for allegedly holding a knife to his girlfriend’s throat. But lots of people still don’t know who and what Cohen is. And the news media has all but stopped reminding them.
I agree and do you think they will figure this out before they vote?
- Demoralized - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:21 am:
It is simply unfathomable that someone would think of cutting taxes with the budget in the current shape that it’s in. Even if you believe that cutting taxes increases revenues - which I don’t - the hard fact is that there will be at least an initial decrease in revenue making the current budget situation that much worse.
- the Patriot - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:29 am:
We knew the polls would tighen for a number of reasons. First, democrats will vote for a dog if he has a D next to his name. That is how Rod got more than 49% even when his own AG told the world he was under investigation. Second in a 4 way race, the thought that someone will win by double digits is crazy. Third, the polls are flawed. They focus on Chicago and cannot account for the fact State employees do not accurately respond because of fear of retribution.
Quinn has to beat the Topinka 37% from 06. Brady wins 46-42 on election day.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:34 am:
If you didn’t know anything about Cohen, and just heard his radio spots, which ran quite a bit on WBBM in past weeks, you’d think he was a pretty swell guy.
All he talks about is jobs, jobs, jobs. You’d think the other guys would take a cue.
- Way Way Down Here - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:37 am:
Cohen mailers are starting to appear in southern Illinois, and although virtually nobody has heard of him, his “vote ‘em out” message is appealing to many who have received them and do not know his history.
- Deep South - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:38 am:
Dead cat bounce for Quinn? Or are the Dems finally waking up and realizing that if they don’t go to the polls they’ll end up with, well, tea-bag laced GOP office holders, who are totally unacceptable to them. Polls and pundits across the country seem to think that just well be the case. Early predictions of a GOP/Tea Bag revolt just may be all wet.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:41 am:
===State employees do not accurately respond because of fear of retribution===
Number of state employees: 65,599
Number of voters in 2006 gubernatorial election: 3,487,989
State employee percent of voting universe: 1.88
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:42 am:
An interesting note about these poll differences is those taken by a more traditional means (humans calling voters) show the Brady/Quinn and Kirk/Alexi races closer than the more modern method of robo-polling. One can presume that a more apathetic voter would hang up on the robo-poll, where the more enthusiastic voter would, because of their displeasure, stick with the robo-poll. My hypothesis is that this may equate to more voter enthusiasm (read turn-out) among those polls using robo-polling. This may equate to a larger turn-out among displeased voters than is being measured by the traditional method, which may mean that the robo-polls are a closer measurement of the races than the traditional polls, and are more accurate.
I wish the pollsters asked their likely voters to measure their likelihood of voting on a sliding 1-10 scale (10=Short of death, I’m voting) which would help us get a measure of enthusiasm of voters, and the effect on candidate voting.
- bored now - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:48 am:
Cincinnatus: obviously, republicans would prefer that only the really enthusiastic, dedicated voters came out to vote in 2010. that would leave us with all the crazy nut jobs like christine o’donnell, bob dold, bill brady and mark kirk.
you might also prefer that there was an income requirement on voting, as well.
however, down here — where i live — we won’t be counting on the 10s to come out and vote, we’ll be dragging even the 2s to vote. the polls won’t reflect that, and bill brady (and mark kirk) will inevitably be accusing democrats of stealing this election BECAUSE PEOPLE ACTUALLY VOTED!
how dare they!!!
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:54 am:
- First, democrats will vote for a dog if he has a D next to his name. That is how Rod got more than 49% even when his own AG told the world he was under investigation. -
Well that makes a lot of sense considering Quinn polling ~35%. Did the rest of those Democrats move?
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 10:57 am:
bored now,
I believe you are missing my point by a mile. For the past month, Rich has been struggling with the meaning of the polling numbers, and has posted several threads about the mood swings of the polls themselves, in addition to the swings of the voters.
All I am saying here is that I started looking at some of the differences in the polling that are outside of those we have already explored (sampling, likely v. registered, etc). As a strict observation, I noticed that there is a difference in polling method between the closer race polling and the polling showing wider gaps.
So the questions are:
Is there indeed a correlation between method and result? Someone should doublecheck my work.
If there is a correlation, what is the cause, if any, for the difference?
If there is a cause, does it equate to turnout or some other factor we can use to understand the poll differences?
So, I have no clue how you can even make a statement like:
“[Y]ou might also prefer that there was an income requirement on voting, as well.”
other than you are purposely trying to insult me, or you’re an idiot.
- Cindy Lou - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:01 am:
–”Of course it’s tightening. However, just as in the primary, the polls aren’t reflecting the “screw Chicago” factor outside Chicago. Don’t know about the suburbs, but it won’t be tied. Never met someone who wasn’t a party hack who actually likes Pat Quinn. “– Matt at 10:15
I was up into Whiteside, Lee and Ogle counties this past weekend and there are a lot of Quinn signs up that way. Not a lot of population in those areas, but I saw much more Quinn than Brady signs. There are finally some Quinn signs popping up down here around Peoria, but still seeing many more for Brady.
- D.P. Gumby - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:03 am:
Getting the Rahm soap opera over early is going to help focus back on this election. Now it’s all part of the scrum. Rich, you hit the head…plus all the tea bag talk has got all Dems to High Alert such that the GOTV is going to be significant. And w/ early voting, it doesn’t have to wait til election day.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:07 am:
D. P. Gumby,
Good points, even if you need to resort to the Tea Bag slur. In addition to my points above, your points trigger one more thought. This year in Illinois, we may see the Democrat GOTV effort indeed work as it usually does, in which case we can expect typical Democrat turnout.
The question then becomes if voter anger will equate to a significantly increased turnout among Republicans and Independents who support Republican candidates, and if that increased turnout balances (or overcomes) a typical Illinois Democrat turnout.
Anyone want to through a few braincells at this question?
- Deep South - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:16 am:
===”even if you need to resort to the Tea Bag slur”===
Puh-leeze. What goes around comes around. (Still, not much of a slur. A bit sensitive, Mr. Cincy?)
- bored now - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:19 am:
Cincinnatus: you can choose to think that i was “purposely trying to insult you.” or you could apply occum’s razor and realize that i’ve been arguing (for months) that the polling screens are highly suspicious and reflect a.) prior elections and b.) a belief that only republicans are energized by this election.
but i can only lead you to water, i can’t make you think.
there’s a reason why the tea party has been dominating the “energized voter” screen and that is that very, very, very, very few democrats and progressives could be more energized than in 2008. so the standard test is biased, or rather, useless, for this election.
now this may mean nothing to you. which is why i assume you brought up feeling insulted. obviously, you have preferred outcomes. i just look for facts and try to draw my conclusions form those…
- MikeMacD - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:26 am:
“Anyone want to through a few braincells at this question?”
Have begun analysis this question. Anticipate results ooa 3 Nov. Plate full.
:)
- Irish - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:29 am:
I somewhat agree with Cinnci. There are so many unknowns that go into polling that I don’t see how one can draw any definite conclusions from any of them.
I don’t see the retribution thing with State employees. #1. How would the pollster know that the person is a State employee. Even if they did I don’t see the effort taken by a pollster to then communicate the employees response to someone who would retaliate. It would require more organization and follow through than I have seen displayed in state government,.. ever.
I have been wondering if the shift away from Brady came as a result of the big push by outside interests that Illinois voters care for. It seemed to me that Brady was doing okay, then there was a big push by the Tea Party people and I don’t think their platform resonates with moderates in Illinois. Then the Crossroads folks began to run adds in Illinois and I know folks who were totally turned off by that group coming here and their message, especially when they know Karl Rove is behind them. Past Republican victories have counted on moderates from both parties to carry them to victory. I think the strong push by the conservatives chased people who were thinking they would go with Brady, back to Quinn, and those who couldn’t bring themselves to that went to Cohen.
- Irish - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:31 am:
Sorry - voters DON’T care for
- vole - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 11:58 am:
Could be many of the dems who do not approve of Quinn’s performance and told themselves they could not vote for him are reconsidering that stand as the election draws near and the direct consequences to them of a Brady win is now weighing more heavily on their decision. Will the majority decide that their interests are best served by Quinn in a one to one match up with Brady? My poll of one tells me they will.
- Ghost - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:01 pm:
The polling numbers show tat Quinn may be closer, but I think the Dem voter apathy is so high right now there needs to be a massive get out the ote camapgn or Quinn is still way done.
I have yet to see the Union support appear on the ground; and if Quinn wants to win he needs to campaign down state, not just have somone place some underwear in a drawer for him.
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:15 pm:
“Brady proposes a five-year moratorium on federal payroll taxes”
How is a state governor going to accomplish a moratorium on FEDERAL taxes?
“and the creation of a Main Street Small Business Advisory Board”
Where is no-tax Brady gonna find money for this considering Illinois had to cancel its Main Street program in APRIL OF THIS YEAR because of lack of funds?
- Cuban Pilot - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:30 pm:
Every one is getting way to up tight about these polls. Point is, in this year, with these particular candidates and in this particular environment, ABSOLUTELY NO ONE (INCLUDING THE POLLSTERS), have any idea of what is happening or going to happen. Anyone can win. The environment is way to fluid. So, polls have very limited value, and it is pointless to try to “read into” these poll numbers. Thus every political junkie not involved with a campaign should just enjoy the fun. After all, it is rare to have this many important races come down to a crapshoot. And, for those involved in a campaign, just spend October pretending that you are 5% down.
- Small Town Liberal - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:56 pm:
- I somewhat agree with Cinnci. There are so many unknowns that go into polling that I don’t see how one can draw any definite conclusions from any of them. -
Cinci sure was quick to draw the definite conclusion that Quinn was toast right up until the polls showed something different.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:57 pm:
Hisgirl, I thought the paper had just gotten it wrong on the moratorium on federal taxes for small businesses. But I checked Brady’s website, and it’s there, with a lot of other mushy, mealy-mouth stuff.
However, if Brady is going to expand his mission like this I suggest a real money-savers:
–Brady will propose that Osama Bin-Laden and crew come out of their caves with their hands up. He will recommend that they not try anything funny, because he’s packing and is just looking for a reason.
The $6.7 billion a month that will be saved from the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will be used to replace revenues lost from the repeal of the Illinois gasoline tax and to fix up the Governor’s Mansion really nice.
- Lewis Grad - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:00 pm:
Even if the horse race numbers are good for Quinn, Quinn’s numbers are still not good. As Rich stated in the post his avarage disapproval is at 58.8%, In all these polls he has around 38-40% of the vote. If he can’t get people who disapprove of the job he is doing to vote for him, he would need the 3rd party combined vote to be 17.9% of the vote to win the election, since the approve or undecided total on Quinn’s job approval is 41.1%.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:13 pm:
If Rich is correct and women slid from Brady to Cohen, they will keep sliding, either to Whitney or back to Quinn wants they re-learn Scotty boy.
I would think, you can also look for lots more Brady women to slide away as they find his positions untenable.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:19 pm:
“wants” was supposed to be “once”. Oh” good lord!
- Rambler - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:28 pm:
I’d say vole makes a good point.
Interesting article — it’s also likely that people were simply much more familiar with Quinn than with Brady, so the attacks on Brady were more effective.
It makes you wonder about SLC’s motivation. Didn’t he get into this sort of to spite Quinn? If he’s perhaps helping Quinn, would he curtail his campaign? Does he really think he can win? Seems like he’s lightening his wallet for minimal benefit.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:56 pm:
I still think that Quinn is toast. I do not believe the polling is adequately reflecting the enthusiasm of the voters and what I believe is an anti-incumbent, anti-Democrat backlash that will happen in November. I further think that the only reason Quinn is polling as well as he has been (no matter if he is up or down in a particular poll) is the fact that Illinois is one of the very few states where Obama is not underwater in his polling.
These two reasons are why I am talking in my previous posts about wishing that the polling firms used some different methods to determine the intensity among likely voters.
- Fred - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:01 pm:
Women changing their vote from a solid family guy to a guy who was accused of verbal and physical abuse? How sad if that is really the case.
- Retired Non-Union Guy - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 6:36 pm:
I don’t answer any phone number I don’t recognize … but I get many polling messages on my answering machine. Now I’m wondering what my answering machine is telling the pollsters …
- Cool Hand Luke - Tuesday, Oct 5, 10 @ 6:45 am:
It appears that Cohen is hurting Brady the most. I am surprised that neither Quinn or Brady view Cohen as a substantial threat to their chances of getting elected. If they did, you would think that one of them would at least be running a couple of attack ads against Cohen in order to make voters realize that Cohen carries lots of baggage with him (hooker ex-girlfriend who he held a knife to her throat, etc.).Perhaps Quinn is happy that Cohen is running in this race in order to siphon votes away from Brady? It seems a little strange.