26 Comments - Deep South - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:11 pm: If Obama didn’t come to Illinois, Republicans would be saying he’d written off the state. As for who’s right? Plouffe. Polls are not showing a landslide. - A.B. - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:12 pm: Neither - it just means it is a competitive, high value,race and the pundits believe an appearance by the president will help. It really is that simple. - Sue - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:12 pm: It will nbe a close election but absent Quinn pulling off a victory- Kirk wins and Obama gets to continue his appalling endorsement record - Thoughts... - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:14 pm: Pat Brady kills his credibility by calling Illinois the ‘bluest of the blue.’ Has he been to the Northeast or to California? As a result, he’s quite obviously wrong. Plouffe nailed it - I don’t see Obama going anywhere the Dem can’t win. - grand old partisan - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:15 pm: Both - although Brady’s comments are a bit of an exaggeration. Plouffe is right that the President is a valuable resource that shouldn’t be wasted in states where they have no chance of winning, and Alexi does have a chance. But the converse is also true (and doesn’t inherently contradict Plouffe’s point): the President is a valuable resource that shouldn’t be wasted in states where he isn’t needed. Obviously, Alexi is in enough trouble that he needs the President to come here. So Brady right to point out that this is a bad sign for Democratic candidates in the deep-blue, home state of the sitting Democratic President. - Ron - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:19 pm: I’ll go with Plouffe on this one, Brady hasn’t done anything but run his mouth. - 47th Ward - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:20 pm: I think Brady’s comment is an example of wishful thinking when it comes to Illinois. The fact is, Alexi is not the strongest candidate the Democrats could have nominated. But he is the nominee, and so far he’s done a remarkable job of keeping the race close. If there was a GOP tidal wave coming in Illinois, don’t you think Kirk would be further ahead in the polls? Kirk can still win this thing, but it will be very close, which means there isn’t a huge wave about to break over the state. Kirk is not exactly firing up the most energetic Republicans. They will most likely hold their noses and vote for him anyway. He is the Mike Castle of Illinois and if our primary was held later, neither he nor Giannoulias might be leading their respective tickets. Plouffe is more right than Brady on this one. - RMW Stanford - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:21 pm: It’s a competitive race and the Democrats are clearly worried that Alexi will lose, with good reason too. This seat is one a handful of seats that could decide who controls the senate. Pat Brady is right to extent that the Democrats are looking at pretty bad election year this time around. - dupage dan - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:26 pm: I don’t think that you can compare Illinois to other states as Plouffe seems to be doing. Since this race is about “Obama’s seat” the president could suffer more loss of prestige as a result of the loss of the seat to the GOP. Having said that, the senate race is close - all can see that. The landslide referred to is not just about the one seat, it is about the whole slate. It’s a draw. - OneMan - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:27 pm: Perhaps they both are… Brady is right, this is supposed to be the blues of the blue state so the President comming here does show some concern, you don’t do stops in places where you really don’t have concerns about and/or where you don’t think it will not do any good. Also I don’t think he did any large events so coming to raise money for a guy shows to some extent he could use more money and help. However… If this was going to be a world of suckage for the Democrats they would have stayed away because it would have been a waste of resources and time the other way. Then again if you told me the Democrats were going to have to work this hard two years ago I would have laughed at you a bit…. - votecounter - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:38 pm: Yea and the President would never put the prestige of the presidency on the line and go to the Olympics announcement with out knowing the decision and risk looking foolish. - Edison Parker - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:44 pm: I don’t see the need for the Obama of 2008 to campaign for anyone in Illinois. That the Obama of 2010 has to because it is close enough, says he is worried. The well-loved 2008 Obama wouldn’t have to come to his home state to help out a candidate. He wants to be able to say “his” seat stayed Dem, because too many other ones may flip. It would be embarrassing to lose Illinois like it was for Gore to lose in Tenn. - Leroy - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 1:55 pm: Obama has shown questionable judgement in the past when it comes to ’showing up for support’ Think Chicago 2016 Olympic bid. If Alexi loses the race, Obama is going to have more egg on his face. - ZC - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 2:02 pm: “Landslide” in Illinois looks too strong at present. But Obama coming here to Illinois certainly could be interpreted as a sign that the White House is concerned about losing control of the U.S. Senate. It would take a series of bad outcomes in a lot of Senate seats nationwide that, collectively, could fairly be compared to a “landslide.” I’m not convinced in any way that’s an electoral -embrace-, of the Republicans … but it’s certainly a rejection, of the Dems. Bottom line is that, after the Delaware meltdown, Republicans still have a shot at winning the Senate if and only if Kirk wins. If Alexi wins, the probability of a Senate flip to the GOP is essentially zero. (Proviso: assuming Joe Lieberman doesn’t defect on November 3rd). - Cynic - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 2:07 pm: “You have to make sure you’re spending your time and your resources and your effort in places where you see a pathway to victory.” Yeah, just ask Martha Coakley. - just sayin' - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 2:20 pm: Plouffe is obviously right. This is a wave election and every Republican in every state is going to benefit, often even despite themselves. But if there is one guy who could screw it up for the GOP in Illinois, it’s Pat Brady. I don’t think he’s got a clue. He should just stay out of the way and let the wave happen naturally. Less would be more. - Cincinnatus - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 3:02 pm: The fact that they have had to call on Obama (and his wife and members of his cabinet) a number of times to campaign for Alexi shows that the Democrats are desperate to hold this seat, which they must consider part of a firewall against the loss of the Senate. The fact that even with multiple appearances by Obama, Inc. a weak opponent, and a heavily Democrat electorate, Alexi is still behind in the RCP averages and that Kirk has a slight edge according to 528 models show what an incredibly weak candidate Alexi is. Kirk’s (and his allies’) upcoming ad buys will seal this deal for Kirk, even though it will be an extremely close race. The only questions that remain: Will a winner be declared on election day, and if so what time? If a winner is not declared on election day, how many days (weeks, months) after the election is a winner declared? How many days in court will be spent declaring a winner? - Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 3:14 pm: Man, this question had it all. State GOP chairman - which is usually a favorite target of Republicans. And Obama. Not to mention yet another opportunity to tee off on Alexi and Kirk. Just goes to show that not everything is a slam dunk. - MrJM - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 3:26 pm: I think OneMan got it correct. – MrJM - Wensicia - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 3:46 pm: Obama wouldn’t have come if he and the party didn’t believe it was absolutely necessary, they don’t want to lose this seat. Don’t be surprised if he stops by again the final week. I notice Quinn made sure he got a photo op out of the visit. - Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 4:19 pm: Some may remember the old FOUR SEASONS’ song–Let’s Hold ON To What We’ve GOT–from Obama’s point of view, he IS going to do whatever he can to keep one or both Chamber in the D category, and based on RCP, it looks like the Senate is his best bet. And I’ll echo Edison Parker above–imagine what fodder for the GOP to tell the Nation, “We won OBAMA’S own seat–what does THAT tell you!?” The Prez. wants none of that message going around the U.S. (plus it would be beyond embarrassing) so he IS making an extra effort for AG as a result…. Plus, Alexi, like Pat Quinn, is an old, loyal friend, so he’s going the extra mile for both of ‘em–and particularly so in PQ’s case so as to safely shore up that more substantial percentage than usual of blacks (reliably Ds as a rule) and even some independents (many who backed him, but obviously blacks almost exclusively so) with the upcoming, potent “Pat Quinn is a friend of mine and I’m voting for HIM” radio message hundreds of thousands will soon be listening to. It’s likely to make a marked difference for the Governor. But they’re launching (i.e. not only Kirk, but all SORTS of groups) an all-out assault on the “G” man, with more to come no doubt, and it’s questionable if BO will have much of a coattail left for him after all of the rockets are fired… And Brady’s not far off either–oh, they’d NEVER admit it, but they’re worried all right, about losing Congress, Obama’s own seat, some key Governships, etc. and he NEEDED to come to Ilinois, where he still is popular enough to at least try his darndest to nudge PQ and AG over the top…without Barack’s help, both may well have gone down, but WITH him, both MAY survive, but likely only one of em…which D do ya think? - votecounter - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 4:45 pm: Anyone who dosen’t think that there is a wave coming has not been out in the counties. I have been to all 102 in the last year and a half and you can feel the buildup. counties that had 50 to 60 people active now have hundreds -mostly women- thats what the difference is. Obama came yesterday and raised less than 1 million? Google bush comes to Chicago to raise money or McCain or Clinton they usually raise a million at a lunch, Obama had to events and came up short? Not a good sign. - wordslinger - Friday, Oct 8, 10 @ 5:01 pm: Plouffe is right. If Alexi didn’t have a chance — which he shouldn’t — the wizzos in the White House would have put the word out long ago that they were writing him off. Illinois is the Bluest of Blue? That’s absolute nonsense. The state party that couldn’t craft a message to compete with, much less beat, an obviously corrupt Blago in 2006, and had no better idea than Alan Keyes in 2004, needs to look in the mirror. - krome - Saturday, Oct 9, 10 @ 1:23 pm: Both are right - for Illinois to be in play at all, that indicats a possibilty of a GOP landslide. Illinois will be tight - other places that are normally tight might be substantial GOP wins, and typical strong GOP spots could be laughers. A landslide is when a party wins decively overall - that happens by shifting everywhere a ew or several points. Shifting typical Illinois Dem comfortable wins a few or several points makes Illinois tight. - VanillaMan - Saturday, Oct 9, 10 @ 3:23 pm: We are seeing a president of the United States campaigning in his home state on the verge of a mid-term. That doesn’t happen unless the bottom is falling out against him. If you don’t recog - Cool Hand Luke - Saturday, Oct 9, 10 @ 5:26 pm: Alexi appears likely to lose this one. He is more than just a Democrat candidate from Illinois. He is Obama’s buddy and close friend. That is why Alexi losing would be like Barack getting hit in the face with a cream pie at a nationally publicized event. That would be a huge embarrrassment to Obama. Mark Kirk doesn’t make Tea Baggers or Illinois Republicans souls quiver like Jell-O but they will still vote for Kirk before they will vote for Alexi. The other reason Obama is heading to Illinois is simply because Obama feels that he still has more friends than critics in this state. It is basically a “comfort level” sort of thing for Barack Obama. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.