* A new Fox News poll left out one the candidates’ names (Libertarian Lex Green), which is just ridiculous. But “Some other candidate” took 1 percent, which is about in line with other recent polling.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters taken October 23rd has Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 44-39. Independent Scott Lee Cohen has 6 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney has 4 percent.
According to the poll, Quinn leads among women voters just a single point. He has just 64 percent of the “non-white” vote, while Brady has 12, Whitney has 6 and Cohen has 5. Quinn has just 74 percent support among Democrats, but Brady has 87 percent backing among Republicans. Independents break heavily 45-27 to Brady. All those numbers are pretty much right in line with other recent polling.
Among those who have already voted, 58 percent said they cast their ballot for Quinn, while 37 percent were with Brady. That could help put some of these early voting stories into context.
43 percent said the policies of the Obama administration have hurt Illinois’ economy, while just 31 percent said it helped and 23 percent said it made no difference. Just 44 percent said Obama’s policies will help the country in the long run, while 47 percent said they’ll hurt. 45 percent strongly or somewhat support the tea party, while 43 percent oppose it. 11 percent were neutral. 49 percent of women opposed it, while 37 percent supported it.
* Speaking of the tea party…
When is a tea party-sponsored event for Republican governor nominee Bill Brady not a tea party-sponsored event? When Brady is the one promoting it, apparently.
Brady’s campaign today sent out an e-mail promoting the “final stop on Brady’s suburban ‘Clean Break Express’ tour” on Wednesday in southwest suburban Homer Glen. Appearing with Brady will be Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Bob McDonnell of Virginia.
But in promoting the event, dubbed “Crunch Time 2010,” Brady’s campaign made no mention of the fact that the Will County Tea Party Alliance is hosting the event. The tea party group and a variety of conservative groups are promoting attendance by saying, “Tea Partiers, Independents, Republicans, Conservatives, and Libertarians will gather together in Homer Glen to prepare for the final drive to victory.”
* And David Axelrod uses big words to excuse possible failure…
A top White House official blamed “extraneous factors” for Democrats’ troubles this fall in President Obama’s home state.
White House senior adviser David Axelrod blamed the political fallout from former Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s (D) time in office for some of the difficulties now facing Alexi Giannoulias (D) in his race for the president’s old Senate seat and Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) bid for reelection.
“There were some extraneous factors in Illinois this year,” Axelrod said on MSNBC, “including a lot of contretemps about how the president was replaced.”
* The Fox News pollster only included two names in its US Senate poll, so I’m not reporting the results here. Go see it for yourself.
* Roundup…
* Big, late cash in guv race
* New Chicago Tribune poll mirrors Post-Dispatch’s, has GOP’s Brady up by 4 for gov
* Social issues divide Brady, Quinn
* Brady: I’ve Always Been Campaigning for Black Votes
* Brady: “There’s No Room for What Rickey Hendon Did”
* Quinn, Brady Argue Over Who Should Apologize
* Scott Lee Cohen puts another $3.2 million of his own money into governor race
* Scott Lee Cohen has loaned $2.1 million to his campaign since July
* Sun-Times: For lieutenant gov, Simon bests Plummer
* RR Star: Keep Jesse White as secretary of state
* “This will be it,” Jesse White says
- Vote Quimby! - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:09 pm:
“fractiousness” sums up Illinois pretty well…
- todd - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:16 pm:
the early voting would be on par with the dems typically having a better ground game and “driving” their voters to vote early to change the election day gotv to those independants and swing voters. if you don’t have to chanse down another 200 people in a precint on election day, you have more time for something else.
but out by me, all the early voting seemed to be going republican. wonder where the sample was from.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:16 pm:
When asked if he had any evidence to support his extraneous factors theory, Axelrod replied: “Do you have any evidence that it is not?”
The Tea Party question is hard to figure. What exactly is the Tea Party? The Washington Post, in a series the past few days, has attempted to identify and contact every self-described Tea Party group in the country in search of that answer.
They’ve done a lot of work, but they’re really not any closer to the answer.
- shore - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:17 pm:
blago was mentioned ONCE in passing in the senate debate. that race was not about blago.
buriss was not mentioned, nor was the process. that race was not about the process.
the white house failed to find a suitable candidate in the presidents home state so they were forced to run an immature hack who owes his career to the president.
this race was about axelrod and obama, and they failed.
- Living in Oklahoma - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:17 pm:
Dems are running out of time. Republicans are measuring the drapes.
- Team America - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:18 pm:
I think the Fox News poll omitted Labno but not Jones in the Senate race. Still it seems pretty consistent with all the other recent polls.
- Bakersfield - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:19 pm:
Does “extraneous factors” include the fact that Illinois is like one of five states where the president’s support won’t actually kill democrats? Otherwise, Quinn/G/Hare/Seals/Foster would be toast.
- PIoneer P. - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:19 pm:
How bout the fact that the Dems just plain ol put an embarrassing group of people on the ticket? I mean, it’s just awful. Everyone dickered around all summer and now we’re a week out saying, “Wha happened?” Get a clue, some ideas, a message and maybe the votes will come, but it’s waaay too late now.
- cassandra - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:19 pm:
Actually, compared with the 2006 election when it seemed we were hearing about George Ryan corruption matters a great deal, the Blago corruption trial and related matters seem to me to be playing a far lesser role in this election. Brady brings him up occasionally (as well he should) but I don’t have nearly the same sense of being inundated with references to massive corruption as in 2006. I guess the economy and generalized anti-incumbent fever trumps everything. Of course, if folks are kind of putting Blago behind them, that should be helping Quinn, but I guess it isn’t much.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:46 pm:
wordslinger,
I think that the Tea Party isn’t really a “thing” in any traditional sense. It is more a rallying cry focused around fiscal responsibility and constitutional freedoms. Each Tea Party is a unique group, with its own leaders and agenda, but commonly share those two traits. The Washington Post is spinning its wheels trying to get its arms around the Tea Party movement. The movement is amorphous, dispersed and diverse. These traits are both its strength and its weakness. There can be no doubt that the Tea Party has made a significant impact in 2010. The question remains as to its impact in future elections.
- ChrisChicago82-Independent - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:48 pm:
This Fox poll is actually extremley consistent with most other polls we have seen lately.
The good news for Dems is the early voting breakdown.
Among those who have al ready voted (according to this poll), Quinn beats Brady by 21% and Alexi beats Kirk by 23%. Couple that with a decent Chicago early voting turnout (beyond NOT 2008 like, which it REALLY needs to be as close to as possible, but good enough to suggest a healthy 57 to 60% of registered Chicago voters will vote in this election)and what only amounts to a moderatley increased early voting turnout in some “red” like counties, and you have, as Rich put it, a ray of sunshine for Dems.
However…
Look at the the margins in regards to the favorables/unfavorables, along with the Independent vote.
Brady is +2 in the favorable vs unfavorable department (42-40).
Quinn? At 37-52, his margin is -15!
Kirk is -10 (34 to 44), but Alexi? -19 (33-52). To make matters worst for Alexi, his approvable rating is likely to stay the same since almost everybody, according to this poll and many others, knows who he is. Kirk, on the otherhand, is unknown by a % reaching double digits, so it is more then likely that he could be looking at an approval rate in the high 30’s (if not very low 40’s, al though I think that is somewhat of a stretch) by election day.
Then we go to the Indy voters. Brady has an 18 point advantage over Quinn (45-27), while Kirk has a 16 point advantage (45-29).
If you couple that with the fact that most (to what degree I’m not sure) of your tradinional Republican voters will be showing up in a much stronger force then usual on Nov 2nd, the “ray” of sunshine for Dems is just that… but one bright light to be shined on an otherwise cloudy day.
Quinn will need FAR more then just that.
However, that MIGHT be enough for Alexi. While I objectivley predict a 1.5% victory for Kirk based upon how Indy voters are breaking for him and the fact that he seems, based upon the last week of polling, less dislikeable then Alexi, my level of confidence on that one is at best 55%. As a result, please dont be surprised if come next Wednesday morning I’m on here writing “Ok… well I was wrong about Kirk.”
- Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:50 pm:
If centist FOX has BB up by only 5, the “liberal” Trib by 4, and after his negative, nightly MGT smash ad against Quinn, when factoring in the likely more accurate recent PPP Poll–(only a 1% difference, identical to Hynes leading Quinn one week before the Primary–then this thing very will IS closer than ya think. Plus, a 45% total of the FOX poll strongly or somewhat support the not at all highly conservative TEA Party in Illinois, adding in 11% neutral, for a whoppin’ 54% FAVORing it or at least thinkin’ it’s tolerable?? Surely the poll is aberrational there, makin’ ya wonder about it on the whole….
- Quinn T. Sential - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:54 pm:
I find the prospect that the Fox News survey outcomes may be suspect. They age banding of their demographic data points seems vague when you categorize respondents into what are essentially 20 year age bands at the low and the high end, and then just a 14 year age banding for those in the middle.
The 18-39 year old crowd appears to make up 24% of the sample, and the 65+ crowd makes up roughly 19%. In terms of a “likely voter” screen however I believe the 65+ demographic group may be exponentially more likely to actually vote than the younger group; and especially those at the younger end of the 18-39 range.
If the senior crowd is running 50-33 ahead for Brady, but yet has been under-represented in terms of the universe of likely voters, then the margin for Brady could actually be considerably higher than the 5 points refelcted in this poll.
The fact that Brady leads by 7 points in the younger age, and just 1 point among women across the spectrum of the full LV sample universe would appear to me to make this siuation far more ominous for Quinn than they are suggesting.
- Wally - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:00 pm:
Cassandra———Watch for Brady’s new TV ad. You may see Blago!
- ivoted4judy - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:14 pm:
No way the turnout in Chicago is anywhere near 60%.Just aint gonna happen.
- Quiet Sage - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:18 pm:
2010 is going to be a shocker. 1994 in reverse.
- lawyerlady - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:21 pm:
Re: early voting. For several evenings last week, I helped make some calls to downstate hard and soft R’s to promote early voting, and most of them seemed offended that I was suggesting they do anything different than going in on election day to vote. One older lady even exclaimed that if she voted early, she wouldn’t get to wear her “I Voted” sticker on election day and her friends would all think she wasn’t doing her civic duty.
I think whoever said before that downstaters are going to be much more traditional in the sense of saving it for election day is probably right.
Plus, after living in Chicago for a few years, I can tell you that voting down here on election day isn’t as much of a PITA.
- (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:35 pm:
Rich: Do any of these pollsters call cell phones?
- Cool Hand Luke - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:48 pm:
Who or what really is “The Tea Party”? It is everybody and it is nobody. It is best defined as—-”Dissatisfaction with the status quo” — “Anger” —and “The pot finally getting hot enough to finally boil over”.
- dave - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:55 pm:
Rich: Do any of these pollsters call cell phones?
No, not really. Pew recently found an approximately 5% bias towards Republicans by not including cell phones.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1761/cell-phones-and-election-polls-2010-midterm-elections
- (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:59 pm:
As far as I know pollsters do not call cell phones.
From the AP 5/12/2010: One in 4 households has a cell phone but no traditional landlines, a trend led by the young and the poor that is showing no sign of abating.
Which is a more reliable poll. A poll of likely voters or a poll of those who have already voted?
From the Fox News Poll: Among those who have already voted, 58 percent said they cast their ballot for Quinn, while 37 percent were with Brady.
- (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 3:03 pm:
@dave 14:55
Thank You!
- ANON - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 3:17 pm:
Yes, pollsters call cell phones. I’ve received more than one call on mine.
- soccermom - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 3:40 pm:
I think the Republicans need to be wary of creating a base of furious people. Kind of hard to keep them reined in and on message, as Rand Paul’s “headstomper” demonstrated. (And no, Rich, I’m not trying to change the thread to out-of-state issues. It’s just an example of how difficult it is to build on a boiling base of “I’m Mad As Hell and I’m Not Going to Take It Any more.”
- Responsa - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 3:54 pm:
Just because Blago’s name does not come up all that often in the campaigns does not mean he is not on voters’ minds. In fact, he is part of a larger, roiling undercurrent of public corruption and bad acts, lying just below the surface, that continues to infuriate taxpayers and is certainly playing a role in these elections. (In company with the likes of the Toddler, Carla Oglesby, Phil Pagano, Fast Eddie, Charles Flowers, on and on and on.) Perhaps those closest to the politics of the city and Cook County see these as distinct and individual cases–different departments, different types of malfeasance, etc. But to most normal citizens they are a single narrative and seen as part of the continuum of all-too-frequent examples where the public trust has been betrayed, scarce funds were wasted/stolen, and is viewed as proof of an endemic failure in Dem leadership and stewardship.
- (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 4:13 pm:
@anon 15:17
Were all of those pollsters that called you on your cell phone in 2010?
In all of my decades of voting I have never got a call from a pollster.
Lucky you.
- Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 4:36 pm:
How on earth does anyone know how early voters are voting? I suppose they could have people doing exit polling, but I don’t understand how anyone could take those numbers seriously. Had someone asked me as I was leaving the polling place the other day, I’m sure I would have told them to mind their own business. Or I might have just lied to them.
- conda67 - Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 8:58 pm:
The real numbers are available, fox is being very good to PQ right now,