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Behind the numbers: Absentees, money, GOP calls, lobsters, pensions, Twitter, fumigation
Monday, Nov 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The Illinois Manufacturers Association totaled up all absentee ballot requests through October 31st by county, added them to the early voting tallies and came up with the following numbers…
Mind you, requests aren’t the same as actual absentee votes. They define independents as people who didn’t vote in the primary or who have bounced around in the past three primaries. The county-by-county numbers are here. This is a far better showing for Republicans than in the past. And they’ll probably get the majority of those independents as well. [I misunderstood the IMA e-mail and had to rewrite the above section. The numbers the IMA gave me today are the grand totals.] * This is kinda apples and oranges. From the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform…
Four years ago, Rod Blagojevich had about $17 million for the fall campaign, including his cash on hand at the end of June. This is the same way the ICPR figured this year’s numbers. But Blagojevich started running TV ads against Judy Baar Topinka in April. He spent almost $3.7 million on media buys between April 1 and the end of June and another $173K in mail. So, his actual “fall” spending was about $21 million. Plus, there was no millionaire independent spending money hand over fist like this year. So, yeah, it’s a record on paper, but that isn’t the entire story. Also, the Republican Governors Association accounts for a third of Brady’s cash. * Back on October 20th, Fox News reported that Illinois Republicans have outperformed every other state party in terms of voter contact. The Republicans’ Illinois Victory program has called “almost three million” voters since the summer, the station reported. The party posted the video on its YouTube site with the headline: “FNC: Nearly 3 Million Calls by Illinois Victory! ” Watch… * And here’s Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady today…
That means they’ve made over 100,000 calls a day since October 20th. Hmm. But how many are completed calls? I decided to check with the state party this afternoon. Of those 4.4 million calls, a bit under 2 million were actually completed. Of those, they’ve identified the leanings of a little over 929,000 people, whether those be Republican, Democrat or whatever. They have a GOTV universe, they say, of 2.5 million. That would include hard “Rs” who’ve voted in primaries. * From a Tribune editorial…
Illinois has the lowest state employee per capita ratio in the nation. Propping up the “bureacracy” is only a real problem in their minds. And the “caretakers” of our sick, disabled and mentally handicapped citizens pretty much all have lobbyists, contrary to the Tribune. The Illinois Hospital Association, the Illinois Council on Long Term Care, Illinois State Medical Society, Illinois Nurses Association, Lutheran Social Services, SEIU, Voices for Illinois Children, The ARC of Illinois, Illinois Association of Rehabilitation Facilities, National Association of Social Workers, United Cerebral Palsy of Illinois, Illinois Networks of Centers for Independent Living, the Illinois Association of Public Health Administrators, the Illinois Cannabis Patients Association… Shall I go on? Angry people don’t think. And the Tribune editorial board is a good case in point. * This Tribune story overlooks an important point…
Yes, the move pushes up the unfunded liability. But by lowering the expected annual rate of return, that means the interest rate the state pays to the pension funds for our unfunded liability amount is also lowered. The magic of compound interest means that, over time, this may actually save the state some cash. * Um, no…
Actually, if they had just gone to Quinn’s campaign page, you’ll see a prominent link to his Twitter account. Quinn has 1,151 followers. * Bill Brady says he will fire at least 300 Rod Blagojevich holdovers if elected. However, the House’s “fumigation bill” targeted 750 employees…
Maybe he needs an audit.
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- CousinEddie - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:25 pm:
I can agree with you that most lobbyists get a bad rap in the public, and that they serve an essential purpose for those clients they represent, but I can agree with the Trib, too, in the sense that I have never seen such a proliferation of lobbyists as I have seen in the last eight years. Lon Monk pulling down a million bucks? Yeah, right. Blagojevich squeezed four or five at a time into some operations (”here, Julie, give B-dog a taste from your client list”). It seemed a little overkill. But, hey, if the deep-pocketed business and non-profit communities want to keep handing out big checks . . .
- Uncle Donnie - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:37 pm:
I wouldn’t brag that I called and “bothered” so many people. It’s funny that I’m on the Do Not Call List but politicians made a loop hole so they could still call. The process goes like this: You call me with a pre-recorded message I consider voting against you. Call me during dinner, early in the morning or late at night, then I consider campaigning against you.
- George - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:38 pm:
Headline:
“Brady pledges to keep 450 Blagojevich holdovers to run his administration”
- Aldyth - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 2:57 pm:
Feel free to tell the people with disabilities who have been terminated from services because of the funding cuts that their lobbying groups should have done a better job. One of those individuals that I know well wrote his heart into letters to the governor, state senator, and state representative and got a computer generated post card in response from the state senator. He was ignored by the rest.
Guess how him and his family are going to vote tomorrow. I can’t blame him. I’m doing the same.
- progressive voice - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:06 pm:
“Angry people don’t think. And the Tribune editorial board is a good case in point.”
Right on the money, Rich.
Throw in a very large ax to grind as well, and any even-handed analytical ability disappears.
- Demoralized - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:09 pm:
That “fumigation” list that has been out there is not accurate. There are people on the list that should not be and there are people missing from the list that should be there. I hope they at least get a correct accounting before they just let the pink slips fly. I am on the list but should not be there. I’ve worked for the state for more than 13 years and had nothing to do with Blagojevich OR Ryan. I can re-apply for my job if they want me to - I just hope they are serious about looking at qualifications if it comes to that.
And, by the way, I’m still not sure who I’m voting for tomorrow . . . I hate both Quinn and Brady. I’m gonna have to think long and hard tonight. I might write my own name in.
- CookDemCon - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
Hey Rich,
Even going off the IMA’s numbers and assuming I’s break 55% Repub to 45% Dem the Dems come away from the early vote/absentee voting phase of the campaign with at least a 55,000 vote lead. That may not be as big a lead as Dems have enjoyed in the past (we have no way of knowing that is the case btw) but it is certainly a nice cushion of votes with one sixth of the votes cast. If I were the Repubs I would not be crowing about being down that much. AND, the Manufacturers definition of an Independent likely also includes thousands of 2008 Obama voters. My educated guess is that the Dem lead among the early vote/absentee voting universe is significantly higher that 55,000. Just sayin is all.
- ANON - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
CookDemCon, Rep’s have been polling much better than the 10 point gap among Ind’s that you’re giving them. The numbers are very good for Rep’s
- OneMan - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:18 pm:
Well PatQuinnsBrain is a more interesting read….
- Give Me A Break - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:19 pm:
I’m wondering if Brady wins, will they will do what Blago did and come in “guns a blazzing” and start firing folks without any thought to whether the person knows what they are doing or is qualified?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:20 pm:
You’re probably right, OneMan.
- CookDemCon - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:23 pm:
Hey ANON,
WHay you say may be true but you do not know where these Independents came from. How they poll statewide is not a material fact here. Indepednents tend to vote like their geographic nieghbors. If many of the Independents that requested absentee ballots live in high Dem performing areas then they will not perform as well as the Independent poll number. Ansentee and early voting does not HAVE to reflect state polling but rather the geographic distribution of those voters and a reflection of the organizations that recruited them in the first place. The most likely outcome here is that Democrats have a greater than 55,000 vote lead among these voters. I would not be surprised if the Dem advantage was closer to 75,000 or greater. Nice try though.
- ChuckT - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:31 pm:
Will Brady still welcome advice from Blago’s Deputy Governor when he decides who to “fumigate”?
- Cindy Lou - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:39 pm:
Speaking of Ol’ Rod, he’s blabbering right now on MSNBC. Yawn.
- RobRoy - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 3:55 pm:
GMAB, there are so many more state workers, especially in management, than when Blagdoodle took over that any new administration will have to use a scalpel not a bomb. Many not covered by the union are scrambling for protected positions (ala Ryan’s folks.)
- lincolnlover - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 4:18 pm:
Aldyth - thanks for proving Rich’s point that angry people don’t think.
- Emily Booth - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 6:33 pm:
Bill Clinton talked about the electoral mood as being one of anger, apathy and amnesia. The Tribune editorial board is angry because they work for a bankrupt company and they have no pension. What I find interesting in all this anger and amnesia (I won’t accuse the Trib of apathy but perhaps there is some of that, too) is no one ever talks about the legislators pension fund. SERS manages 3 funds: judicial, legislator and state employee. It’s really the legislators’ abuses that people object to and that Quinn’s poorly written pension reform attempted to address.
- DuPage Dave - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 6:38 pm:
Aldyth- While being ignored by your elected officials leaves a bad taste in your mouth, you should stop to think and realize that services for disabled people in Illinois will not do better under Brady.
GRF funds have been cut under Quinn, Blagojevich and Ryan to DDD and DMH. The cuts will continue under Brady. He has never publicly supported an increase in GRF for services to the disabled. On the contrary, he’s said he is for cutting at least 10 percent across the board for state-funded programs.
- countryboy - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 7:02 pm:
Emily…
State Board of Investment manages the funds for all three…
Sooner or later the public is going to wonder why there even is a retirement fund for our citizen legislature.
- Justme - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 8:09 pm:
–The magic of compound interest means that, over time, this may actually save the state some cash.–
Sadly, no. The assumed rate of return does not change the total amount of cash the state is projected to pay out. It merely reflects the fact that, if you put money into a fund today and invest it, you will won’t have to put as much cash in because the return on investment will pay some of the liability. The higher the assumed return rate, the less you have to put in today to have enough cash in the fund to pay pensions when they come due. If you assume you’ll need $200 billion to pay pensions and no return on investment, you’ll need to put $200 billion into the fund no matter when you put it in. If you assume a 10% rate of return, and you need $200 next year, you can put under $182 in today to pay the obligation, and it costs you over $18 to delay. At 5%, you need to put in over $191, and it costs you less than $9 to delay. The higher rate always means you pay less cash in, but the costs of delay are greater.
- Anon - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 9:19 pm:
Small distinction . . . the agencies and organizations you mention are not necessarily lobbyists for the sick and the disabled. Their primary interests are those of its members. The IL State Medical Society and the IL Nurses Association, for example, lobby on behalf of it doctors and nurses. And while caretaker interests often sync with those of the sick and disabled, it is a mistake to assume it is always the case.
- Park - Monday, Nov 1, 10 @ 9:31 pm:
i’ll bet Brady doesn’t cut more than usual….the Agency heads and their political staff. Normal moves.