* 10:30 am - Bill Brady’s 10:30 am announcement on the future of his campaign will be covered live by WLS Radio. Click here to listen.
[Oops. That WGN link was for the national Republicans. Back to WLS Radio for us.]
* I’ve switched over to WJBC. Click here.
* Brady is not conceding, of course. He’s going to wait for the rest of the results to come in and the election to be certified. He just said “realistically we think we’re looking at a 30-day process.”
* 10:45 am - And it’s over.
* 10:46 am - Military ballots still out there? According to state Rep. Dan Brady it’s a bit over 2000. Not enough.
* 10:58 am - Somebody mentioned the military ballot situation in comments, which was about the same thing I heard from a Republican operative on the phone today. Quinn has made it a regular practice to see the troops off to Iraq and Afghanistan. He also, of course, attends their funerals and/or wakes. He’s visited both countries and spent time with Illinois troops. This is not your usual Democrat, and the military votes might reflect that.
*** AUDIO *** From BlueRoomStream.com…
Download Link Brady presser
*** 10:38 am *** From the Chicago elections board…
We have 40 precincts out. At 1 p.m. today (Wed., Nov. 3) at the Board’s warehouse at 1819 W. Pershing, we hope to resolve most or all of those through procedures most of you may recall from the February primary, where we break the seals on the precinct records and remake the cartridges that could not be read in front of the campaigns, the media, etc.
* We processed a total of 37,127 absentee ballot applications (meaning ballots were sent to those voters). Of those, 31,335 were received by Sunday and are included in the Election Day counts we have (or in the case of the remaining 40 precincts, will soon have.) Those are the absentee ballots that were able to be logged onto the poll sheets so that judges could compare who had or had not voted.
* We have 4,418 absentee ballots that arrived Monday and Tuesday that need to be compared against affidavits that voters filed in the polling places on Election Day. If any of those absentee ballots are from voters who completed affidavits to say they were voting in the polling place out of some concern that their absentee ballot was not sent to the board in time, the corresponding absentee ballots will not be counted. We advised the campaigns last evening that it is our intent to process those on Friday, along with any absentees that arrive in the mail Wednesday and Thursday that can be compared to the affidavits and that are postmarked Nov. 1 or earlier.
* That leaves a remaining universe of approximately 1,400 absentee ballots that could arrive in the mail over the course of the next two weeks (by Nov. 16) and still be counted so long as they have postmarks of Nov. 1 or earlier.
* There also is an unofficial total of 11,210 provisional ballots where the ballots are inside an envelope, and the voter-registration records that are on the outside are then scrutinized by hand to review whether or not that voter was indeed eligible to vote in that precinct, and in turn, whether the enclosed ballot can be entered into the count.
* By law, the deadline is 5 p.m. on Thurs., Nov. 4 for the Board to receive (at 69 W. Washington St. on the 6th Floor) any supporting documentation that any voters who cast provisional ballots may want to supply, such as proof of identity, residency and/or voter registration in the precinct where they cast the provisional ballot.
*** 11:32 am *** From the Quinn campaign…
“The Quinn/Simon campaign wants every vote to be counted. We want to make sure the voice of every voter in the State of Illinois is duly counted and heard.
The ballots left to be counted appear mostly to come from Cook County, where the Governor held a large margin over Senator Brady. We expect to hold our lead, and may increase it. We do not see a path to victory for Bill Brady.
As Gov Quinn said last night, “the people have won and I we believe we won…We know there are more votes to be counted, but we are ahead.” We expect to hold that lead, and expect that Pat Quinn will continue to be our Governor.”
-Mica Matsoff, campaign spokesperson
That’s pretty much a declaration of victory, no?
- metro transplant - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:34 am:
Can someone please provide updates. I can’t access the link. Thanks !
- Amalia - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:35 am:
thanks Rich!
- JN - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:38 am:
So far all WLS has is Chicago bashing. Brady’s presser is running late.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:41 am:
Brady is running late … so it’s like the campaign’s ground game?
Snark aside, this is going to be interesting …
- JN - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:44 am:
Brady: I have been patient…we must wait…
He’s not going anywhere.
- Anon - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:45 am:
Brady is “waiting for the ballots to be certified.” “We are confident we are going to win.”
- JN - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:45 am:
Brady: We still believe we can win…We will wait for the ballots to be certified by the State Board of Elections.
- Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:45 am:
When reporters asked Brady what he thinks the math is…well, to say he was evasive is an understatement.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:46 am:
so, what is the best bar near 1819 W. Pershing…….
- JN - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:46 am:
That’s all that matters.
CO: Brady isn’t personally counting the ballots. If they want numbers, they are at the wrong venue.
- ChrisChicago82-Independent - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:47 am:
Oh boy. As much as I dont want Quinn to win, Mr. Brady… do what is right, and concede.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:47 am:
Waiting doesn’t cost you a dime, execept for your lawyers … a recount … that will get costy… Brady said it … less than a vote a precinct … this is a Staff/Field Operations loss.
- Demoralized - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:49 am:
If we are waiting for certification, that is what, December 13??
Also, WLS continues to push this thought that the election is “fishy.” I agree that it is a little bit of a surprise, but the fact that it is close should have been expected. There is nothing to indicate that there has been some sort of fraud. They don’t understand how Kirk and other Republicans won their Senate and House races, yet Quinn is winning the Governor’s race. They are concluding that indicates something is wrong with the Governor’s vote count. I think people need to take a step back and realize that none of this is connected b/c the Governor’s race is a totally different dynamic.
- ChrisChicago82-Independent - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:49 am:
Rich, or Oswego, is there any mathematical and realistic way Brady can still win? I just dont see it right now.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:52 am:
Looking at outstanding precincts … including the Chicago Board of Election admitted precincts … and going 60/40 Brady and 50/50 in the Chicago precincts … Brady is still short.
- Nearly Normal - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:53 am:
I have to admit that I am rather enjoying hearing all the local Repubs on WJBC in a turmoil about the outcome. There has been a lot of arrogance in this town about how they were so much better than the ‘others’ and how they were going to be a part of a big landslide when the Republicans take over.
All they did was tick off moderates and those who are not so sure that Bill has the chops for the job. And, they voted for Quinn.
- Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:53 am:
JN — So, you’re suggesting it’s wrong for a reporter to ask a candidate how he thinks he will win? Okay.
Geez, people needed to get more sleep.
- DuPage Moderate - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:54 am:
I’m no Brady fan but I think the vote is close enough that he has to wait. To those who say “Concede” with a 8k deficit and all the ballots aren’t in I say: lay off the donkey kool-aid and let the votes get counted like we all expect them to be. There’s no harm in it.
And kudos to Quinn, he’s handled himself with a lot more class than many of his supporters re: this issue.
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:54 am:
Unless the Cook County absentees/provisionals all voted drastically differently from those who voted in person, I don’t see how Brady can win at this point. The margin is 8,000 votes, not 80 or 800. Not enough downstate votes left to make up the difference.
Just curious: has there ever been a case, in IL or elsewhere, in which a candidate conceded defeat in a close election and then ended up winning when the official results came in? Can someone un-concede if, by some miracle, that happens?
- JN - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:55 am:
WLS is very red-blooded. The talking head said it himself: “I don’t know how moderates can be turned off by Brady’s strongly conservative positions.”
If they weren’t, they probably wouldn’t be moderate, now would they?
- siriusly - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:55 am:
I am thinking that the GOP should have waited until the day AFTER the election, not the week BEFORE, to thump their chests about their GOTV operations. Doh!
- JN - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:56 am:
CO - No, reporters can ask whatever they want. Just don’t be surprised when the candidate dodges a question that they obviously can’t answer.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:57 am:
JN, turn off the radio before your brain fries.
- CK - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:57 am:
Military votes won’t even help Brady–spoke to a 3 tour Afghanistan vet (and Republican) today who said his fellow vets love Quinn for his commitment to the troops, etc. I don’t see how Brady gets to wehre he needs to be
- Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:57 am:
Secret Square, I seem to remember Gore conceding to Bush, then pulling the concession back when Florida kept getting tighter. He didn’t win, of course, but that proves you can ‘un-concede’.
I believe the phrase ‘don’t get snippy about it’ was tossed around during that phone call, too…ah, memories….
- siriusly - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:57 am:
I understand the “wait and count the votes” approach, I think I would be saying that too if I were him.
However, the facts are that these votes are not from areas where Brady performed well. The chances of him overcoming an 8,000 vote deficit are extremely remote.
- old chicago hand - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:58 am:
The provisional ballots will be key. We are talking about over 11,000. Remember AG Madigan’s memo? The election judges were directed to basically give these ballots to anyone who claimed they were eligible to vote in the precinct. I believe these ballots have been included in Chicago vote count which means most of them would be Quinn votes. If they are tossed out that could put Brady over the top. If I am wrong and they have not been included then Brady’s position looks weak.
- Chicago Bars - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:59 am:
Somebody go walk over to Chesterfield Club across from the Board of Elections warehouse at 1800 W Pershing and tell them to open up because recount & thirsty journalist Christmas has come early.
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 10:59 am:
Thanks CO. I didn’t recall whether Gore ever actually conceded or not… that seems like a gazillion years ago now.
- the Patriot - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:00 am:
So the big question is whether Madigan gives Quinn the tax hike. This is Quinn’s only plan to fix the budget. I only raise the issue here because of how/whether a Brady hold out eliminates any action in the veto session. Can Brady hold Quinn hostage for another budget year by holding out? The budget/tax implications on a hold out, plus the effect on help from DC before the republican take over in the house all will be affected by Brady’s actions here.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:00 am:
===If they are tossed out that could put Brady over the top. ===
I’m not sure I get your math. Brady is behind right now. How does throwing out a bunch of uncounted Quinn votes - if that’s what actually happens - put him over the top?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:01 am:
Where the “Votes” are in the city especially … Brady can not chase down 8k votes …the precincts where he can chase a margin in are not located in Chicago … and 40 precincts are about 2/3 of a Chiacgo ward …numbers are tough.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:03 am:
Chesterfield Club….classy!
- Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:03 am:
JN…really? You don’t think the candidate could answer that? I’ll give you an example.
“There are outstanding military votes, which we expect will break heavily toward us. Many of the absentee ballots that have yet to be counted are in areas that so far have leaned my direction. And this race was completely different two weeks ago, when many of the outstanding ballots may have been cast. The fact is, we don’t know what the ballots say, and they should all be counted, and until they are, I believe we will win this race.”
He chose to evade any similar statement, and just say “we’re convinced we’ll win.” That’s a choice, and I understand why he made it, but it signals one of two things: He doesn’t see a path, or he doesn’t want to divulge the path. Either way, he’s evading.
Put another way — what do you think his advisors were doing meeting with him before he met the media? They were charting a path to victory…they were examining the numbers. Either they see something and aren’t sharing, or they don’t see anything and don’t want to admit it. And it’s completely reasonable to ask what they see.
- anon - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:04 am:
Even with all the flip flopping Quinn has done, the thing he has been steadfast on is his support for the military. Which translate into him getting there support when they vote there absentee ballot. So the repubs bet hang there hat some where else to make up ground.
- dave - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:04 am:
I believe these ballots have been included in Chicago vote count which means most of them would be Quinn votes. If they are tossed out that could put Brady over the top.
Um, no. Provisional ballots are not counted unless it is a very close election. They are absolutely not included any current vote numbers.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:09 am:
looks like that bar will drive the Brady crowd nuts!
- Melancton Smith - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:16 am:
I was for Brady, and did some work on the ground for him, and I support his plan to wait for all ballots. However, realistically I don’t think he’ll win.
My gut feeling was that Brady is too conservative for IL and his results compared to Kirk’s bears that out. That is the reason I supported Dillard in the primary.
- siriusly - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:21 am:
Primary voters made some really poor choices that hurt their parties on both sides.
Of course Dillard would have beaten Quinn. I also think that Hamos would have also beaten Dold and Hoffman would have done far better against Kirk than Alexi did. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Can we please go back to talking about Rahm? What did he have for breakfast?
- JN - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:22 am:
The reporter asked him, “How many ballots remain to be counted?” The answer is a number which is constantly changing. The example did not provide a number, and is just a long-winded way of saying, “We don’t know.”
Instead, he said, “We’re convinced we can win.” I certainly wouldn’t play the odds on it, but it is not impossible.
- unspun - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:25 am:
With Brady’s math, anything is possible. Haven’t you heard of his “plan” to balance the budget with cuts alone?
I’m also curious to know why Brady can’t access enough information to formulate a budget plan, yet he readily bandies the number of employees he plans to fire within state agencies.
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:31 am:
With the outstanding precincts in the city and the suburbs, and those limited to outside the metro area as well;
THERE IS SIMPLY NO PATH TO VICTORY FOR BRADY with the available additional votes from the areas where they were voted.
THE ONLY PATH TO VICTORY FOR BRADY NOW would be if certain vote totals were revised during the canvass and certification process, such that a large number of votes cast and counted already were disallowed for reasons such as duplicate counting.
The Fat Lady has sung, and while you can await the outcome of the formal process, there is very little chance that the outcome will change, other than perhaps the margin of victory substantially increasing for Quinn.
- Been There - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:35 am:
I think Rich and Dave cleared up the provisional ballot thinking of “old chicago hand”. But I think that is the main reason Brady is a lost cause. I thought Brady had a chance until I read that. My guess is a large percentage of the provisionals end up getting counted with Quinn obviously getting more of them than Brady.
- Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:37 am:
JN, that’s not what the reporter asked him. At least, that’s not what I was referring to.
Reporter: “Senator, can you take us through the math a little bit, exactly…I mean, by our account, you’re about 83-hundred votes separated from Pat Quinn. Are there enough of those military ballots, some of which may lean toward Pat Quinn because of his own veterans’ record…so just, discuss where you think the numbers help you.”
Brady: “Our analysis of the numbers is, we still believe we will win. The process will take its place, I’ve been through this a couple times before, as I said, a lot can happen and we’re gonna wait until the ballots are certified by the state Board of Elections.”
He evaded the question, just as I said.
- dave - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:39 am:
bottom line:
brady to conservative in illinois, moderates chose quinn instead in cook county.
dillard would’ve given the republicans the governor’s seat.
193 votes gave brady the republican candidacy over dillard.
wow.
- Joe Blow - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:43 am:
@ dave - I agree.. Dillard would have been partying with Kirk today.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:43 am:
So he waits. Why shouldn’t he.
But Quinn doesn’t have to. He’s already in the job. Get a top-notch COS, please. There are too many moving parts in state government for you to be effective under your current management style.
- Mark Buerhle - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:44 am:
Word, word.
- Mommy2one - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:48 am:
Dillard definitely would have won. People in Bloomington-normal stunned. They don’t understand how Kirk #s could be so different from Brady’s.
- train111 - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:49 am:
At 11:30 there was an update to Macoupin County’s totals.
Quinn +1159
Brady +1095
Quinn net +64. Not a good post election day start for Mr. Brady.
train111
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:54 am:
FWIW,
The Bright one has some new numbers up vs. last night, which reflect a 54 vote net increase for Quinn, increasing the margin from 8,349 to 8,403
- train111 - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:55 am:
Yup, thats a + for Quinn of 1149 in Macoupin and a net gain of 54. Can’t add or subtract anymore after last night. Too tired.
train111
- DownstateGuy - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 11:59 am:
I was just looking at the results from the St. Clair County Clerk’s website (http://results.platinumelection.com/reports/summary/6) and there is a big difference between the numbers the AP is reporting for St. Clair County and what is on the website and it’s a big advantage for the Republicans. Anybody know what is going on?
- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:09 pm:
I don’t know, but Cook County results web site says the following:
Rep. in Congress, 1st District
165 of 166 Precincts Reported
Vote For 1
Precincts Reporting Status Bar
% Votes
Raymond G. Wardingley (REP) 47.78% 26,395
Bobby L. Rush (DEM) 44.77% 24,734
Jeff Adams (GRN) 7.45% 4,118
That’s right, it shows Bobby Rush losing! And he won with some USSR style vote percentage!
- Fellow traveller - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
Downstate Guy. You are not adding in East Saint Louis with its own election commission. All those Democratic votes will make it match up.
- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:10 pm:
Ah, I think I just figured it out. Those are the Suburban cook vote totals! I didn’t know any part of that district was in the burbs.
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:18 pm:
Still shaking off the sleep deprivation. Did Jay Hoffman in fact get beat?
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:18 pm:
Yes
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:20 pm:
Any insight into the mechanics of that? Was he washed over in the “wave”, or was he denied the benefits of the resources from the ILDP, due to past “indescretions”?
- Alex - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:20 pm:
Vote count updated once more. Quinn’s lead just increased from 8,403 to 9,774.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:20 pm:
DPI did a lot for him. You should subscribe.
- Publius - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:24 pm:
Rich, do you have just an online only subscription offer? Also this race is over with the lead just expanding
- Joe Blow - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:26 pm:
I think I heard Kass mention TV last night that Mike Madigan’s opponent was some democratic union operative running as a republican. He asked the guys parents about their son running.. they had no clue he was even running for public office!! LOL
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:26 pm:
CF is invaluable; if just for its entertainment value alone, let alone the benefit to be gained from timely strategic information.
My subscription benefactor revoked my privilege however in a budget cutting move; and economic times being what they are, I have had to make some “hard decisions” personally on my own as well.
I’ll come back into the fold hopefully by next year, and who knows, maybe there will be a subscription gift card in my Christmas Stocking.
I’ve been good for goodness sake!
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:28 pm:
In the meantime someone better touch base with the ILHBPA, and talk the ED back in off of the ledge.
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:35 pm:
P.S. Has there been any adjustment in the over/under for the timeline of the completion of the Congressional House Ethics Committee investigation into JJJ since last night?
- train111 - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:39 pm:
Quinn’s 9774 lead came from 2 adjustments.
Some more Cook County precincts finally reported:
Quinn +1964
Brady +193
Peoria County’s total was also adjusted
Quinn +266
Brady +666
train111
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 12:40 pm:
I think Quinn will come out fine, but I’d like to see some thoughts about whether the votes from those missing precincts will be enough to put Bean back on top.
700 votes from 6 precincts seems like a bit much, but I don’t know which precincts and how they lean.
- Matt How - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:03 pm:
How many absentees down state?
- Alex - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:04 pm:
Results updated again. Quinn’s lead has gone from 9.774 to 9,494.
- train111 - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 1:11 pm:
Christian County:
Brady +548
Quinn +268
train111
- Alex - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 2:04 pm:
Results updated once again. Quinn’s lead has now increased from 9,494 to 12,344.
- John Poshepny - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:18 pm:
I think unless their is a miracle in the Absentee Ballot department Brady is toast.
- Not Pat Quinn - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 3:23 pm:
I tinks I wons.
-Not Pat Quinn.
- FillB - Wednesday, Nov 3, 10 @ 6:12 pm:
Remember how Brady told Dillard to take his time after the primary? Me neither.