41 Comments - "Old Timer Dem" - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:09 am: Talk about an anti-climatic news conference. - tubbfan - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:13 am: Is he expected to play nice and speak kindly of the opposition? - How Ironic - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:14 am: I love this from the AP: “The two spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity so as not to pre-empt Brady’s planned announcement later Friday in his hometown of Bloomington.” As if witholding their names somehow makes the story any less pre-emptive. - S - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:15 am: Wow… the GOP is completely up the river without a paddle after re-districting. Not going to be a fun 10 years. - Secret Square - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:18 am: “The GOP is completely up the river without a paddle after redistricting” I dunno about that. The current map was drawn by Democrats after all, yet the GOP still managed to win four Dem congressional seats, including the 17th which had been Dem for almost 30 years. Also, a commenter on the previous thread noted that Dan Rutherford won statewide office despite being a Downstate conservative… any bets what he might be doing four years from now? - "Old Timer Dem" - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:23 am: Secret Square has a point. No matter how the map is drawn, if things do not improve nationally and locally with the respect to the economy, you will see more Repubs elected statewide and in both chambers of the legislature. - just sayin' - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:26 am: “I dunno about that. The current map was drawn by Democrats after all, yet the GOP still managed to win four Dem congressional seats, including the 17th which had been Dem for almost 30 years.” Oh come on, are you serious? Except for the 17th, all the other “pick-ups” were in historically GOP districts. GOP just retaking what it shouldn’t have lost in the first place. Denny Hastert drew that now-Kinzinger seat as safe as he thought he could, not to mention his own, the 14th. Besides, the Dems didn’t draw the congressional map. Hastert and the senior Lipinksi did. All the incumbents were supposed to safe, except for the downstate Dem who was odd man out with the lost seat. - S - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:27 am: I remain hopeful, Secret Square. However, looking at what the past 10 years wrought isn’t a pretty picture. And I would submit that seizing those 4 seats this year were the product of some intriguing natonal developments… Joe Walsh doesn’t beat Melissa Bean in that district most years. Time will tell… - John Galt - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:31 am: 1) Something tells me that Rutherford won’t attempt a run for the governorship. 2) As a relative newbie (i.e. wasn’t around during the redistricting in 2001), the whole “redistricting” think seems confusing to me. It’s my understanding that for the past several decades, there has been a re-map deadlock, necessitating the name being drawn from a hat. In 2001 it was a D, and so the map was essentially a D map. Was that fact that the governor & the senate under R control somehow mitigating? Otherwise, the map we have NOW was presumably drawn to the greatest advantage for Democrats. I could see some marginal changes based on some demographic shifts and/or an effort to force some top performing legislators out of their seats. But I don’t see how if was a D map before that it could be so catastrophic for the Republicans, especially in DuPage County. Not to mention the fact that if the panel deadlocks (as is assumed), there’s a 50/50 shot that an R will be pulled from the hat, no? - Him Say - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:33 am: Secret Square, your assessment sounds more like wishful thinking and I couldn’t disagree more. Consider the following: * Speaker Madigan won the House with only a one-term forced hiatus after the last Republican tsunami in 1994. Why? He recruits better candidates, has more resources (read: money) than his Republican counterpart. He has more talented ground troops than the Republicans. * The Democrats have made re-districting in Illinois into an artform and is the envy/model for the nation. Nobody does it better. * It will be a long 10-year winter for the Republicans no matter what happens nationally. Tuesday’s election proved that. - John Galt - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:34 am: *Apologies for all of the typos. Is there any way to activate a preview function on this site? - JN - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:34 am: Secret State ++ Also, forward-planning Dems might dismantle some of the swing districts and use the blue neighborhoods to secure their own seats in 2012 and 2014. We all know how our politicians care most about their own self-preservation. - 47th Ward - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:34 am: Secret, the current Congressional map was drawn based on an agreement between Bill Lipinski and Dennis Hastert to protect incumbents (except for Phelps, who was in his first term, and was tossed under the bus). That’s why, as blue as Illinois has been this past decade, we’ve had an evenly split Congressional Delegation. That’s one reason the GOP did so well in these races on Tuesday. 10 years ago, Madigan and the Dems went along with the Congressional map deal. This time, there’s no Speaker of the House to offend, and no reason for Dems to draw lines to protect a GOP dominated delegation. It’s going to be a long ten years for the Republicans under the new maps. Dold, Schilling, Walsh et al had better rent or sleep in their offices. They won’t be in Congress very long. - (618) Democrat - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:42 am: Rich Watch the Brady announcement live on ABC7Chicago.com at 1:30 p.m. Friday I copied this from their web site. - siriusly - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:44 am: 47 - you and me - we’re like this - wordslinger - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:45 am: It was an awfully close election. - Him Say - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:46 am: John Galt: The last time the map was re-drawn, there was a Republican governor. Blago was the first Dem governor in decades and he was elected in 2002. There will not be a deadlock on the map this time around. - John Galt - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:49 am: === * Speaker Madigan won the House with only a one-term forced hiatus after the last Republican tsunami in 1994. Why? He recruits better candidates, has more resources (read: money) than his Republican counterpart. He has more talented ground troops than the Republicans. === I suppose this is a much larger & free-ranging discussion than this thread intends, but why is this the case? Madigan, Cook County & Chicago still have more patronage jobs to hand out despite the Shakman Decree (more than DuPage and Oswego at least). But you’d think the parties would re-balance at some point and the GOP would find at least *some* competitive edge, whether it be more money, or building a more cohesive ground-game. Obviously free-pizza and fresh face kids aren’t enough to get the job done. Maybe that plus some Tea Party moms is enough to do a one-time wave election, but it isn’t something that can be relied upon over a period of decades. Assuming the GOP doesn’t want to follow the G. Ryan model of playing the patronage game along w/ the Democrats (at least in the traditional patronage/government jobs/public sector unions sense), they’ve got to find some other edge or issue that motivates people to put in the sweat-equity to build a lasting coalition. The Democratic Machine was built over a generation or so. If the IL GOP wants to be a stable and viable entity cycle after cycle, they need to find a sustainable model. The Machine has the ability to just grind away even the most promising individual GOP candidates in some circumstances. The GOP is caught in a perpetual reactive/survival mode where each individual candidate is out for himself and there’s no party discipline. It saves the individual legislator’s neck for a few years but allows the Machine to divide, isolate & conquer– thus eroding strong GOP infrastructure over the longer-term. Maybe it’s an issue of ego. Intelligent people can see this dynamic playing out, but at least on the GOP side, there’s too many chiefs and not enough indi–er–native americans… Without the clout to wield large enough carrots & sticks to entice an orderly heirarchy, it remains that way. - Secret Square - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:52 am: “Something tells me Rutherford won’t attempt a run for the governorship” He might not… ’cause Durbin’s Senate seat comes up for election in four years also. “Madigan has more resources and more ground troops than the Republicans” Maybe so, but he won’t be around forever (although it may seem like it). He’s creeping up on 70 now if my math is correct. Of course no one knows for sure what he will do next (probably not even God himself) but… how many people assumed Daley would be mayor for life and never retire? “If the panel deadlocks there is a 50/50 chance that an R will be pulled from the hat” Which is exactly what happened in ‘91 if I remember correctly. The Dems were still in charge of the GA then with a GOP governor (Thompson) in charge. I’m not saying this will necessarily be some kind of glory decade for the GOP, but neither do I think they should be written off as hopeless in this state because Brady didn’t win and the Dems still control the GA. If Quinn gets his tax hike, but the economy continues to go south or goes south again, and state finances don’t noticeably improve…. which party do you think will end up taking the blame for that? - just sayin' - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:53 am: “It will be a long 10-year winter for the Republicans no matter what happens nationally. Tuesday’s election proved that.” Him Say, you are absolutely right. If state Republicans couldn’t capitalize in a bigger way this year, they never will. Not with the team on the field anyway. The GOP is completely outgunned in Illinois by Madigan & Co. It’s like watching the girls’ glee club play the Green Bay Packers, in football. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:53 am: ===He’s creeping up on 70 now if my math is correct.=== MJM’s mom lived into her 90s. He may very well co-sponsor my death resolution. - archpundit - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:57 am: ===Not to mention the fact that if the panel deadlocks (as is assumed), there’s a 50/50 shot that an R will be pulled from the hat, no? The panel only comes to be if the Legislature cannot pass a bill. With both chambers and the Governor, there won’t be a panel. Essentially Dems in both chambers will draw their respective maps, pass them, and Quinn will sign. And as 47 pointed out, the last Congressional map was a consensus map. That won’t happen this time. In terms of Legislative districts, there is a lot of tinkering you can do as demographics change to boost Democratic chances. You don’t wipe out the other party, you simply concentrate their support in as few districts as possible. - archpundit - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:59 am: ====# MJM’s mom lived into her 90s. ===He may very well co-sponsor my death resolution. Having seen him at the State Fair in 95+ degree heat and not even breaking a sweat there is a significant chance he is either an alien or robot and will in fact live forever. - Him Say - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 11:59 am: +“If the panel deadlocks there is a 50/50 chance that an R will be pulled from the hat” Which is exactly what happened in ‘91 if I remember correctly. The Dems were still in charge of the GA then with a GOP governor (Thompson) in charge. == There won’t be a deadlock. It deadlocked because the Republican governor vetoed the map. I don’t think Pat Quinn will veto a Dem drawn map, nor do I think the Supreme Court as it stands today will over-turn the Dem map either. I’m sorry to be the first to tell anyone holding out for a deadlock on the map but it’s officially “game, set, match” for the Democrats. - John Galt - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:03 pm: I guess my thinking about this whole topic boils down to these two points: 1) Although at a statewide level this is bodes ill for the IL GOP, this is not 2002 or 2003. They might get lucky w/ the re-map, and some of the amateur talent that’s been attracted in 2009-2010 is going to stick around and become veterans. 2) That being said, it’s clear that the next generation of the IL GOP needs to understand real-politik. Madigan & Daley didn’t win elections by inspiring speeches & offers of free pizza for precinct walking. The IL GOP needs to find candidates & party leaders who ideally are polished in the media & in front of voters, but behind closed doors are able to find & comfortably wield bigger carrots & sticks. - John Galt - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:05 pm: OK. Strike point #1 in that case. Without any speed-bump for the map, it’ll get pretty crummy for the GOP. Yikes. - Way Way Down Here - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:12 pm: Arch: MJM sweats like karate man bruises—on the inside. - Secret Square - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:26 pm: OK, so the Dems have total control of the redistricting process this time around, and they “choose their voters”. But even so, if there is another double dip recession and/or a complete state fiscal meltdown in the next few years, perhaps combined with some major national development (Obama not running again, successful terrorist attack, Katrina-level natural disaster, resurgence of inflation, etc.) then all bets are off. - Bluejay - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:31 pm: Headline from the future: November 5, 2018 Governor Pat Quinn today celebrated his re-election to a third full term as Governor of Illinois, following a concession call from his Republican opponent. Despite a state budget deficit which has ballooned to more than $50 billion in the eight years since he first won election to the post in his own right, and despite the trial and conviction of more than 100 members of ex-Governor Blagojevich’s adminstration since 2010, Quinn nevertheless rode to victory on strong support in the Chicago region. Political observers credit union support and Mayor Emmaneul’s GOTV effort, with turnout exceeding 75%. Quinn’s opponent won every other county in Illinois but was unable to overcome the Democratic margin in Cook… - Give Me A Break - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:34 pm: Due to the Speaker’s ability to cope with Springfield’s heat in August, the 2011 State Fair Butter Cow is being replaced with a Butter Speaker. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:37 pm: i bet rutherford aims for sos not gov 4 yrs from now. especially if treasurer/comptroller consolidation happens. - soccermom - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:47 pm: A Butter Speaker would be amazing. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:49 pm: ss - you do know there is something wrong with your party if the only way of having hope for electoral victory is a successful terrorist attack or natural disaster or economic depression or something happening to obama right? couldnt you hope for an upturn that the national house gop gets credit for or something less bleak? i worry for my country seeing posts like this. would you have been happy if that crackpot wrigley bomber had succeeded? i mean thats like a double win for gop right? dead dem voters and obama looks bad? sheesh. - Team Sleep - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:50 pm: Since Brady bows, here is my prediction for 2014: Lisa runs against Quinn in the primary. The two Republicans best suited to run for the top two statewide offices - U.S. Senate and Governor - will be Dan Rutherford and Aaron Schock. After some cups of coffee - preferrably Irish coffee! - one will decide to take on Senator Durbin (if he runs again) and the other will run for governor. Both are prolific fundraisers and campaigners. - Wizard of Ozzie - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 12:55 pm: “OK, so the Dems have total control of the redistricting process this time around, and they “choose their voters”. But even so, if there is another double dip recession and/or a complete state fiscal meltdown in the next few years, perhaps combined with some major national development (Obama not running again, successful terrorist attack, Katrina-level natural disaster, resurgence of inflation, etc.) then all bets are off. ” Sounds like a sound strategic plan to me. This post is a perfect reflection of state of the Republican party in Illinois. - ZC - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 1:10 pm: I agree redistricting in 2012 is bad news for the DC GOP House delegation, but there’s no way the Democrats can take out -all- of them … Schilling, Dold, Walsh, Hultgren, etc. There’s only so many Dems in the state to add to their districts. And the more Democrats you map into their districts, the more vulnerable you make the Chicago Dems. Which won’t make them happy. Take IL-10 for example. Dan Seals won Lake County by 5,000 votes. The problem is, he lost the northern Cook suburbs in his district by about 10,000 votes. You could maybe “solve” that problem, by taking more of the northern Cook suburbs out of IL-10, and giving them to Jan Schakowsky. But she wouldn’t be happy with that. So the “bluer” you make IL-10, the “redder” you make IL-9, and the more Jan could be subject to her own GOP “wave year.” There’s only so much you can do with redistricting. The more GOP incumbents you try and take out, the more vulnerable by necessity you make your own Democratic incumbents. - CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 1:12 pm: How will NoTaxBill face the media to explain how he and Unkie Ron blew $8 million RGA secret cash in a year where nearly every GOP toad won across America….Maybe CloseDoesn’tCount Tom can help with the story. Of course, his alibi will be that he was at Medinah so no one can blame him for the failure. capt Fax please publish the full text of Daddy’s Little Deduction’s speech as it is likelyto be the last time he will be let out of his room for quite a while - Amalia - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 1:13 pm: ummmm, Butter Speaker. Both parties are in need of retooling. my party may still run the House, the Senate and the Gov’s office, but there were losses, and big losses at the Congressional level. and there are losers who won, losers who still control, people who don’t think positively, aren’t helping to grow new leaders, aren’t being supportive in general of the party. just because you win doesn’t mean you are good. it means you have power. use your win as an opportunity to make things around you better. - ZC - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 1:14 pm: That would be another fascinating QoTD of its own: if you were drawing the Democratic map, who in D.C. do you take out, and how? If Illinois is losing a seat, you might try and create a Republican super-district that in effect throws Hultgren and Manzullo together, and carve out another “blue” district in Western IL that picks up where Foster and Hare did well. But there’s only so much that can be done here. You can’t create an infinite number of Democratic seats outside Cook County. The numbers to support them aren’t there. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 1:26 pm: it seems like there would be dem votes in peoria to combine with rock island and the river to make a western il dem district work. especially 2 yrs from now with aa turnout up as obamas on the ballot again. and especially if that district still snakes around to pick up parts of springfield and decatur although for the sake of the good people of central il i hope that doesnt happen. - Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Nov 5, 10 @ 1:32 pm: In a related report, 20-something year-old GOP running mate, Jason Plummer, had nothing to communicate about the concession when asked on WTTW. Well, he tried, but just couldn’t respond altogether. His answer started OUT like he understood the reporter’s question and just what a concession MIGHT be, but similar to his previous response on WTTW weeks back on Education policy in Illinois, Plummer began uttering the WORD “concession,” but then as millions of interested voters anxiously awaited his no-doubt well-considered opinion on this critcal matter, he quite regretably appeared altogether dumfounded, stared blankly for a few seconds seeeming either completly lost or at least significantly confused. However, Plummer WAS able to quickly blurt out some harried, garbled comment to the effect that “Well, I WILL say, that it really is none of anybody’s business what my INcome tax returns have on ‘em, cuz, well, gee, aren’t I a handsome hunk anyways???” Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.