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It’s still Cook and Cohen
Thursday, Nov 18, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Greg Hinz touches today on the fight between the Republican Governors Association and the Bill Brady campaign. Subscribers know some of this already, but let’s have a look…
The Blagojevich attacks didn’t work at all during late summer focus grouping. But the Brady campaign claimed the issue spiked up toward the end of the race, so they decided to try it because the race was getting too close for comfort. The RGA was adamantly opposed and wanted to stick with the tax hike and economy stuff. Remember the Thursday before the election when TV stations throughout the state pulled Brady’s ads off the air for non-payment? That was because the RGA decided at the last minute not to hand over $750K in what the Brady campaign believed were promised contributions and used that money instead on its own ads. Because of that, Brady’s campaign went dark and wasn’t fully back up again until late the next day after some very frantic fundraising to replace the RGA cash. By the time Brady went back up, he’d dropped his Blagojevich ad. The RGA never had any love for Brady’s campaign manager. They forced the campaign to hire a staffer before they would agree to spend money on the race. Communications between the two camps was never really good. The campaign “CEO” Ron Gidwitz was supposed to be handling the money, but even he was blindsided by the RGA decision. Gidwitz also spent a lot of time bad-mouthing the campaign manager behind the scenes, but Giddy isn’t exactly the greatest campaign mind of all time. He spent over $10 million to get 10 percent of the vote in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. His job was mainly the money. And the RGA money was therefore within his domain. The campaign completely miscalculated in its late dealings with the RGA. They made a personal plea to Haley Barbour to overrule RGA staff and go along with Brady’s positive ads. Barbour thought it over for a day and concluded his RGA staff was right, but Brady’s campaign went ahead anyway. And all along, Brady’s people figured they’d still get that RGA money and placed their final buy accordingly. When the cash didn’t show up, they were put into a huge bind and had to make up for a gigantic shortfall. It’s more than just conceivable that when Brady’s campaign went dark he lost votes. But the RGA’s ad was up and running, so a message was still getting out there, and it was a fairly decent message. It’s also clear that Brady’s positive ads weren’t all that good. He looked kinda creepy with that forced smile. The Blagojevich ad may or may not have been a mistake, but pulling it after running it for only a couple of days meant that the money spent was wasted. And there is no doubt that while Pat Quinn was having a focused, strong, well-financed closing week, Brady’s campaign was distracted by its changed messaging, severe infighting and extreme money problems. * But all of those problems pale in comparison to the fatal mistake made by both the Brady campaign and the RGA of failing to realize that they needed a much better suburban Cook County message to women and that they had to somehow kneecap Scott Lee Cohen. In other words, dark, schmark, infighting, schminfighting. The message wasn’t good enough by either the Brady campaign or the RGA. As I’ve already told you, the Brady campaign long believed they needed at least 43 percent of the suburban Cook County vote. They got 40. That was their real problem. That’s where they lost the race. We can enmesh ourselves in the intricacies of this thing for years, but it was still suburban Cook County that did him in. They failed to meet their must-get target and they lost. Period.
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- Amalia - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 2:09 pm:
Yep, Cook and Cohen. I suppose if the too many cooks fighting approach had been solved perhaps they could have picked up more in Cook. But, mostly, the product was flawed….right wing extremist.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 2:29 pm:
The campaign had tactical problems, but strategically they were never able to separate themselves from Brady’s conservative base.
That problem goes ALL the way back to the primary.
Jim Edgar is right: dogmatic conservatism is a recipe for failure.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 2:36 pm:
Egos Abound!!
- shore - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 2:38 pm:
1. I have a big problem with all this edgar love. What has the guy done for the party the last 12 years besides sit on the sidelines and say “I could do it better”? Nothing. He sits there wherever he is and trashes conservatives and the party and says if only you were more like me we’d be ok. Doesn’t offer ideas, doesn’t offer an organization. It’s like the 85 bears, he wants to be kissed on the feet forever.
2. brady’s conservatism was not the issue. chris christie’s career was made by karl rove. He’s a conservative and he won new jersey which is even more democrat than Illinois. Bob Mcdonell is a protege of even more right wing pat robertson. he cruised to a win in virginia despite his social conservativsm. The difference between those guys and brady-and I posted the new york times exit stuff broken down by gender/county/age ect was that they knew from day one that their conservatism was going to be a concern in the general and they built a message and campaign designed to innoculate them from those attacks.
Brady didn’t do that, not even close in a state where the prior governor had a much lower polling number than corzine or tim kaine.
I also agree his positive ads were creepy.
- Dirt Digger - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 2:38 pm:
YDD, such a recipe for failure that Brady overperformed Topinka by some 300K votes?
- Dirt Digger - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 2:49 pm:
To clarify, that is Topinka 06 v. Brady 10.
- UISer - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:01 pm:
Shore,
His conservatism did matter. You want a good example of a moderate conservative winning in Illinois? I give you Senator-elect Mark Kirk.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:05 pm:
@Dirt Digger:
LOL. You’re trying to compare 2006 to 2010? And Quinn’s campaign to Blago, who spent what…$25 Million?
Brady got 1,702,399 votes this time around.
Topinka garnered 1,911,900 in the Comptroller’s race - 7 percentage points better - and that was with 70,000 fewer ballots cast.
Even if every single person who voted for Scott Lee Cohen had voted for Brady, Topinka still would have outperformed Brady by 3 percentage points and 70,000 votes.
Look, something’s not true just because Edgar says its true or false because Edgar says its false.
But Topinka, whom I think most would agree was the most liberal member of the GOP statewide ticket in 2010, was also the top vote getter this year.
In 2006, Topinka finished second just behind Christine Radogno, whom some would argue is even more liberal.
- votecounter - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:08 pm:
Any Republican should know that you have to get over 400,000 votes (On election night) in Cook/Chicago in an off year election to win. If Brady had gotten 410,000 election night Quinn would have been in a bad situation. The Brady campaign got 4000 in the primary and was unknown in the city.
It also didn’t help to see Brady on election day on the Chicago noon newscasts badmouthing Chicago. Saying that people were tired of Chicago ruling the state and now it was other parts of the states turn. I could have thrown up! City voters don’t like that and will show up to vote against any “H—b—y” that badmouths them. (That was the word used at the lunch place I was at on the north side.)
- votecounter - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
YDD
Voting for Topinka for a down the ticket office is different than her representing the party as Governor it was for me.
- davE - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
Its time the ILGOP tells about 75% of its voters to go to the Libertarian Party so we can finally adopt a winning platform…Democrat light.
- He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:17 pm:
Shore, I agree with you on Edgar. He is not helping matters when he is blasting GOP candidates in primaries. He needs to ride off in the sunset.
He was just lucky he got off of the MSI probe!!
- Conservative Veteran - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:25 pm:
UISer, Rep. Kirk isn’t a moderate conservative; he’s a liberal. Here are a few of his latest interest group ratings: Planned Parenthood, 100%; John Birch Society, 33%; and Gun Owners of America, F-.
Sen. Brady should have campaigned, more often, in independent and moderate towns. He should have been in the Glenview Independence Day Parade, on July 5, and the Buffalo Grove Days Parade, on Sept. 6.
- ANON - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:26 pm:
UISer, Kirk actually had more than just a shell of a campaign in the Chicago area. That’s why he did better. Brady’s strategy did him far more damage than his ideology.
- Jimbo - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:30 pm:
Topinka is the only Republican I’ve voted for in six years. I also would have voted Dillard if he was on the top of the ticket this year, and I’m a hard core liberal. Moderates play in IL with people like me, so I’m assuming Indies would be receptive of them as well. Hard Righties on the social issues are totally unelectable in IL. If the republic party would realize this, they’d have more success.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:32 pm:
On the flipside, Rich Whitney apparently did little to take votes away from Quinn. Some of my AFSCME colleagues on the far left (including me, before I thought things through) wanted AFSCME to ditch the Democrats and vote for a third party, specifically for Greens.
AFSCME luckily stayed Blue and campaigned for Quinn. In retrospect it’s ridiculous to think that AFSCME would ditch the Democrats and get nothing for it. Of course, many know that Quinn tried to lay off state workers/union members last year but was forced back into negotiations with AFSCME via the court. I believe that if AFSCME ditched the Dems, even with the layoffs that happened to nonprofits, AFSCME would have lost hugely. The Dems would no longer be politically saddled with protecting union workers and could do a more popular thing by cutting further.
The Greens lost significant ground, even in that they’re not getting many votes to begin with. My decision to not vote for Whitney was correct, in my opinion. Whitney had some years to build up a movement but failed. For me, it was bring the party and I’ll show up. I’d rather have a plank (Quinn) to hold onto in the stormy anti-goverment seas these days than nothing with Whitney.
- Statesman - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 3:58 pm:
===”The RGA, some sources tell me, balked at that, perhaps not quite understanding Illinois’ political culture.”
Seems like not understanding “political cultures” , “North of I-80 cultures” or “Cook county subcultures” on multiple fronts cost the BC the election. Add a little insider hubris and you have a repeat of ILGOP history. Dems 1 GOP zip
- foster brooks - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 4:28 pm:
Bradys threat to the pensions lost 200,000 votes from teachers,fireman,police, county,city and state workers
- just sayin' - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 4:28 pm:
I’m sure Ron Gidwitz is a good guy in most respects. But wow, he’s clueless where politics is concerned. Just goes to show there are some things you can’t inherit, like political savvy.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 4:34 pm:
Outstanding reporting and analyis, Rich.
The Illinois GOP of 2010 can never escape the fact that in a historic year, they got out-hustled in the governor’s race. The only race that matters.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 4:42 pm:
I don’t know how many of you watched the last gubernatorial debate with Carol Marin, but if I remember correctly, Brady was radical with Creationism in public schools. Did he not say that he supported the teaching of Creationism, but not as science, in public schools? I remember him saying he believed in evolution.
I guess that taking back the government to some also means disregarding the First Amendment. That was scary, along with his abortion stance that turned off Cook County suburban women. Quinn was so beatable.
- votecounter - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 4:55 pm:
one million “street money” dropped by Obama on the Saturday night before the election helped get the vote out too! Laura Washington wrote on the 25th that Preckwincle and the SEIU would each put in $400,000 in the last week to “get the African
american vote out” that is $1.8 million to spend on the city GOTV effort. It brought up turnout over the 50% mark. Tuff for the GOP to compete but they better find a way!
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 5:05 pm:
votecounter, you’ve posted that several times and it’s just not accurate.
Washington wrote that SEIU and Preckwinkle would split the $400K cost. Not that each would put that in. http://www.suntimes.com/news/washington/2831574,CST-EDT-laura25.article
Of that, $128,000 was for a radio ad buy. And they had 2,000 paid workers, which will eat up cash fast.
Also, the state party said the $900K was used mainly for Alexi TV.
- rudy - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 5:18 pm:
–while Pat Quinn was having a focused, strong, well-financed closing week, Brady’s campaign was distracted by its changed messaging, severe infighting and extreme money problems–
In September, PQ took heat here on this blog for firing the Axelrod firm, who then shot back something about PQ’s lack of focus and changed messaging. Meanwhile we kept reading here about what a smooth operation “Jerry” was running for Brady–all BB had to do was keep his mouth shut and stay out of his own way. It’s amazing that you say now that PQ, apparently on his own, shaped up his message and focus, while the ever-smoothly running Brady ship, unexpectedly sank, because of all the heretofore undisclosed infighting.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 5:27 pm:
rudy, he had a very good final week, just like he did in the primary. he essentially repeated his primary playbook, which saved his rear back then. gold star ad, “you know me” ad, big auto plant announcement, etc. that was all reported here and/or to subscribers.
What else do you want? He certainly didn’t have a great autumn. i stand by that.
- Dirt Digger - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 5:28 pm:
Also what is “using” “scare quotes” “doing” for “you”? Are African-American votes suspect, or just campaign money spent towards goals you dislike?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 5:32 pm:
===It’s amazing that you say now that PQ, apparently on his own===
He did the same, exact thing in the primary. Quinn took almost complete control of his campaign messaging, etc. in the final days.
The Brady campaign went south during that same period. But until then they were running a pretty good operation.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 5:44 pm:
Was it Team Brady or the RGA who decided not to target African-American voters? African-Americans were really not at all pro-Quinn, but only became so once Obama got involved at the end.
Was it Team Brady or the RGA who came up with the “In the Groove” ad to “target” (read: insult)African-Americans?
In any case Team Brady wears the jacket for this loss, not the RGA. Team Brady knew going in that suburban white women were the key group and Brady let months go by without answering the DGA attacks. Team Brady did nothing to inoculate against the attacks, and just stood there looking stupid. It was their race to lose and, boy, did they!
In a state like Illinois Team Brady, the RGA or whatever should never have taken any voting bloc for granted, and should have tried to get as many votes where they could.
Poor strategy and execution.
- 4 percent - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 6:04 pm:
The Brady campaign was busy measuring the curtains and dividing up jobs instead of working a GOTV program.
Why was Brady in a coal mine in deep southern Illinois the last week instead of the suburbs?
Why did their entire GOTV program consist of putting up stupid kick signs (oh wait, I forgot that it worked for Jerry when he ran Mike Bosts race in Murhysboro in the 1990s).
Why did the campaign not put Bill up talking to the camera like the Demuzio or Marla Wilson?
There are lots of questions. The fact of the matter is that the Republicans lost the race in the primary when they chose Brady.
If you want to know who is really to blame, look at Andy McKenna, Tom Cross, Jim Ryan, and Bob Schillerstrom.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 6:10 pm:
===Why did the campaign not put Bill up talking to the camera like the Demuzio or Marla Wilson?===
They did. That was the positive ad. And doing that didn’t help either Demuzio or Wilson win, btw.
- Just The Way It Is One - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 6:14 pm:
I stand by my original assessment–NOT ONE of us can substantially prove the overriding, single reason Brady lost…it was a COMBINATION OF FACTORS, the suburban women’s vote unquestionably being ONE of that array of factors. His failure was due definitively to that one cause, however? No. I will give this much, though, to those who have been espousing that strict interpretation–Brady did NOT ever effectively sell himself well enough either in the City OR the suburbs, and failed abysmally to stand out among women overall. I personally believed that one thing he blew was quickly pulling an EXTREMELY effective, moving TV Ad featuring his young adult, working daughter–Whoa! The second I finished viewing THAT one, I thought, Yikes, the Quinn campaign to women–which had just gained momentum with that group, per the polling–had just taken a MAJOR hit if the BB Camp kept running it…but then, within a DAY, whoosh, they yanked it, never to be seen AGAIN–and I watched the Telly religiously every day/night on several channels…BIG mistake there. It should also not be underestimated that another factor is–People in Cook County KNOW Quinn and HAVE known “who THIS guy is” forever, and basically like what he stands for…fighting for the little guy/gal all these years. Now HIS last couple of days of AD air play with the 2nd “YOU know ME!” AD was VERY effective and showed up in a nick of time, just as a friendly reminder from good ‘ol, talkative Uncle Pat to all those last second Chicago and suburban Dem friends of old who hemmed and hawwed till the end cuz of all the income tax increase chatter (I mean, heck, Quinn even won the only arguably Republican-leaning 41st Ward, which houses a ton of FOA (Brady-backed) police and their spounses! But getting back to your point, Rich, maybe the male Coppers voted Brady while their wives and girlfriends stuck with ‘ol reliable…the friendly, divorced guy father of those two, handsome, nice young men down the street, (or a couple suburbs over)–Quinn! But like ya say, we could debate it for years and never really know the REAL reason it played out the way it did….
- CircularFiringSquad - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 6:42 pm:
The single reason NoTaxBill went into the Dumper is that UnkieRon and the RGA did not force CommandoMakeItUp to do an ad/letter/robo call, sidewalk chalk message that ZBrady was his pal and the 19th Century wing nut.
Had that communication happened NoTaxBill would have won and they could have drawn enough districts so that even Billboards Tom would be speaker
Fire,Aim, Ready
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 18, 10 @ 7:00 pm:
Jerry and Co., blew it, bottom line.
Gidwitz is no brain trust about campaigns, but the terrible way this campaign didn’t figure in Cook, or Cohen, or what I have been banging away at, the zero field operation needs a lynch pin to tie all of it together.
The lack or RESPECT each one of the campaign staff had for each other, and the fact Jerry and Co. seem to drop the ball WAS the factor that ALL these factors have in common.
How could Jerry and Co. lead when Gidwitz is bad mouthing them at every turn? Even if what Gidwitz was saying the truth about Jerry and Co., it dosen’t help, and further, if the RGA didn’t want certain staff, that speaks volumes as to why communication was so horrible. If you ever played “telephone”, and found that the message you started with was not what you ended with, then how the heck can you have a campaign with not just bad communication, but NO communication, and limited communication with your biggest source of money?!?!?!?!
The more that comes out … and the more people are out there covering themselves, and it seems no one is wearing the jacket, when everyone knows the group that should … we will see the complete pettiness of some Paid Campaign Staff, and some pettiness of some campaign CEOs ….
Jerry and Ron … its your jacket … go spread the news, look for “answers” that don’t require either of you to take the blame … but the more you walk away from this they way you are, the worse its going to get.
1.4 votes a precinct more…. and we are all laughing WITH them …if …1.4 votes more a precinct.
- Capitol View - Friday, Nov 19, 10 @ 12:00 am:
come on, gang. I concur with Rich that Quinn did not win as much as Brady lost, but the reason why was the unmasking of the Far Right wingers as the anti-abortion extremists that they are.
The Tea Party presentation is a voter and press distraction and evasion - they are not interested in governing, just gaining power to push their far right wing agenda that they did not campaign on.
The pro-choice soccer moms did Brady in, once he was exposed as the far right winger that he always was.
- Statesman - Friday, Nov 19, 10 @ 10:01 am:
====”The pro-choice soccer moms did Brady in>>>”
BINGO!
What you learn in Business (sometimes the hardway) is that you can’t have success without a cohesive, well-defined strategy and your strategy isn’t worth a hoot without execution. When you fail to have both- You have the results produced on 11/2.
Open up your pocketbooks everyone- here comes the tax man.
- Larry Mullholland - Friday, Nov 19, 10 @ 10:04 am:
The feel good ad Brady had at the end was terrible. He was indeed “creepy” as was stated and he looked bad but what stuck me most about the add was his voice in the end of the add that tailed off and left a bad impression of him as a person.