* Check out the right-leaning blogs today and you’ll see a huge number of posts that more than just suggest the Democrats are plotting to deny Republican Mark Kirk his rightful place in the US Senate. A representative sample…
* Illinois: We can’t certify Mark Kirk’s win until after Thanksgiving because of “paperwork”: And yet, despite there being zero doubt as to who won, “paperwork” means Kirk won’t join the Senate until late November at the earliest. I’m not sure which is worse — the thought that Illinois Democrats are purposely dragging their feet to keep Kirk out of the chamber so that he can’t block lame-duck Democratic legislation or the thought that they’re not dragging their feet and this really is the fastest they can move.
* Mark Kirk stopped from taking Senate Seat to give Burris power to vote on Lame Duck Agenda: Despite the voice of the people in this pivotal race, the democratic party machine that runs Illinois is attempting to hold up Kirk’s appointment to the Senate seat so that Roland Burris, never elected, appointed by Rod Blagojevich, can help Barack Obama pass his agenda to fundamentally transform America.
* OUTRAGE: Illinois Demorats Delay Seating Sen. Kirk: The state says they cannot seat him until after Thanksgiving due to paperwork. Yeah, riiiiight. And that even though Kirk won by more the 70,000 votes and his opponent has graciously conceded.
Illinois Republican Mark Kirk won’t be seated in the U.S. Senate in time for the start of the lame duck session of Congress this month - unlike two other newly elected senators.
The session begins Nov. 15. But state officials say the paperwork officially declaring Kirk the winner of the Senate race won’t be delivered until Nov. 29.
That should still allow Kirk to participate in two weeks of the session in December.
* OK, first of all, way back in July the judge who ordered the special election gave the Illinois State Board of Elections until November 24th to certify the special. This schedule has been in place a very long time, before anyone knew that Kirk would be elected.
* Secondly, the Illinois State Board of Elections actually plans to certify the election a day early, according to an official I just spoke with. They’re gonna do it on the 23rd, not the 24th.
* And fourthly - and most importantly - Secretary of State Jesse White’s office claims the AP misquoted them. What they said was they intend to process the paperwork immediately and will make sure that it gets into the hands of the proper DC authorities in plenty of time for the first day of the restarted lame duck session on the 29th. Between the 23rd and the 29th lies Thanksgiving, remember. Things can happen. That’s why they stressed they want to make extra special sure that Kirk is sworn in on or before the 29th.
* So, to sum up, the schedule that was set way back in July is still on track. The State Board of Elections is actually pushing up the ordered date by a full day. The AP screwed up. The SoS will expedite matters. Mark Kirk will be sworn in by the time the Senate reconvenes on Monday, November 29th.
Also, I’m not sure where Tom Roeser found that December 3rd date, but he’s way off.
Gingrich said the move to seat Democrats Chris Coons of Delaware and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and not Kirk was a prime example of a “really corrupt machine style.”
“That is such an outrageously corrupt and dishonest position that even Harry Reid ought to be ashamed of himself,” Gingrich said.
Gingrich called on the entire country, including President Barack Obama, to bring pressure on the Democratic Party to act honorably and seat Kirk immediately.
“The president could certainly intervene and say to the Senate Democrats and say to the Illinois secretary of state, ‘we need to play fair and we need to honor the American people,’ Gingrich said.
Gingrich called the delay in seating Kirk “much worse” than the machinations involving the seat of former Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy.
*** UPDATE *** House Speaker Michael Madigan is throwing a bit of cold water on all this “mandate” talk by Gov. Quinn…
“If (the governor) has a mandate, it’s not a real strong mandate,” Mr. Madigan said, perhaps referring to near-solid opposition from Springfield Republicans to any tax hike without big spending cuts first.
But then Madigan went on to lay out how the governor might improve his tax package…
The way “is not only an increase in the tax for education funding,” as Mr. Quinn most recently has proposed. Rather, “my suggestion: Illinois has a severe budget deficit problem. The immediate need is bad. And the need is to pay the bills.”
Even with tax-producing economic growth and/or a modest income tax increase — Mr. Madigan didn’t mention a specific figure — it will take “three to five years to work out of our problem,” he said. The state’s cumulate budget hole is about $14 billion, according to state officials and watchdog groups.
“All we heard about in the campaign is that Illinois is running a big budget deficit,” Mr. Madigan concluded, returning to his main point. “We need to pay the bills.”
And that means a one percentage point income tax hike won’t be nearly enough.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* Unlike others, I believe that Gov. Pat Quinn has at least some right to claim a limited mandate from last Tuesday. How many people ran for governor this year promising to increase income taxes and still won? I think he’s probably the only one. That took guts and he prevailed.
Quinn believes his win is a mandate for an income tax increase.
“I think that’s absolutely true,” Quinn said Friday. “The people understood my position and they voted for me. The majority carried the day. We’ll have to get more revenue to get Illinois to a better place.”
The “majority” voted for someone else, governor. Also, Bill Brady, Scott Lee Cohen and Lex Green all flatly opposed a tax hike. Total up their numbers and you get 51 percent.
Offering little hope of new funding for buses and trains in the Chicago region, the state’s top legislative leaders from both parties agreed Monday on one point — free rides for senior citizens must be curtailed. […]
House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, said he expects the General Assembly will roll back the free transit rides for seniors that former Gov. Rod Blagojevich insisted on in exchange for his support of a small sales-tax increase for mass transit in 2008.
“My expectation is that eventually we will go back to a system where those who are needy are the ones who get consideration on the fares on mass transit,'’ Madigan said at the fourth annual William Lipinski transportation policy symposium at Northwestern University.
Madigan’s key word there is “eventually.” That could mean next year, it could mean in 20 years. The longer the program remains in place, however, the tougher it’s gonna be to kill or modify.
Blagojevich used his amendatory veto powers to add the free rides provision. And even though people in both parties screamed bloody murder, the General Assembly didn’t dare knock down his AV. Seniors vote. And once you give them something, it’s politically dangerous to take it away.
The House has tried to come up with a compromise in the past to only give the free rides to the “truly needy,” but it’s been stopped in the Senate and Gov. Pat Quinn has threatened to veto it.
If they can reach a compromise in the coming months, then that could be a sign that the majority party is willing to stick their necks out on other items.
While the lawmakers said the growing state budget deficit will make bailing out the transit agencies a low priority in the next legislative session, Madigan expressed support for raising the state motor fuel tax.
“I think we ought to raise that tax,” Madigan said at the symposium.
Madigan was the chief co-sponsor of House Bill 1 last year, which would’ve increased the motor fuel tax by 8 cents per gallon. The money would’ve been used for capital projects, but the House Republicans refused to go along and pushed video gaming instead. Raising the fuel tax partially for mass transit would require one heck of a huge compromise with Downstate legislators, to say the least.
Quinn was attempting at the time to control the damage done by his budget director, who predicted to Bloomberg that the income tax would be hiked by two points in January, which would be double Quinn’s proposal.
* But a one point hike that includes property tax relief doesn’t do a whole lot to balance the state’s budget. And without further cuts, many legislators will be reticent to vote for any tax increase…
While [GOP Rep. Mike Tryon] expected the tax increase to come during the fall veto session starting Nov. 16, [Democratic Rep. Jack Franks] said he expected it in January, just prior to the new General Assembly being seated. He said he didn’t think it would be successful.
“They’re asking for more money, but to do it without cuts and while keeping the same problems? Nobody in their right mind would vote for that, so I don’t think [Quinn] will get it passed,” Franks said.
Franks will never vote for a tax hike no matter how much the budget is cut. But he may not be too far off with that prediction of his.
In this year’s election there were dozens of referenda on the ballot asking voters if they support or oppose local sales and/or property tax increases. Of the 37 tax increase referenda, only 16 passed. The levies were proposed to fund school facilities, municipal services, roadway construction, and other local government operations.
16 out of 37 is actually a pretty decent batting average, as far as recession-era tax hike referenda go. Hinsdale passed a sales tax increase, for example, as did Lake Zurich and even Macon County, where Bill Brady cleaned up. Even so, local sales and property tax referenda are different animals. I’m not sure there’s a direct comparison here.
* First up, Scott Reeder, who is a proud papa of a new baby…
Caitlin Roberta Reeder arrived at 8:09 a.m. today in St. John’s Hospital in Springfield. The 8 pounds 7 ounce newborn and her Mom are happy and healthy. Dad and big sisters Grace and Anna are proud as can be.
Illinois Review is launching its 6th year of serving Illinois conservatives by providing news, commentary, discussion and events. We want to thank each of our generous Illinois Review contributors who’ve faithfully and graciously shared their thoughts and talents with us over the years.
We’re also thankful for all the faithful readers — from Springfield to Chicago, Metro East to Washington D.C. And we appreciate the support of fellow conservatives committed to the principles of limited government, individual rights, free markets and traditional values.
At least 30 states will be governed by a single-party when new lawmakers and governors are sworn in early next year. Last week’s election gave Republicans control of the legislature and the governor’s office in 20 states, up from nine. Democrats, who controlled 15 states, will see that number shrink to 10.
National map of one-party state governments before election day…
After election day…
* The Question: Considering that the Republicans could not take over either legislative chamber, the governor’s mansion or the Supreme Court during the greatest Republican wave since 1994 (and the largest GOP state legislative wave since 1928), and considering that the GOP will be completely shut out of the redistricting process for the first time since our new state Constitution was adopted, are Statehouse Republicans doomed here? If not, why? If so, for how long? Explain.
* Bonus Question: Either way, what should legislative Republicans do now?
* Subscribers already know what I found last week after talking to Bill Brady’s campaign and others about where and why Brady lost to Gov. Pat Quinn.
“Social issues” seems to be a big part of everyone’s post-election analysis, although I think I’ve pinpointed that aspect of it far more for subscribers.
Another surprise was Gov. Pat Quinn beating Republican Bill Brady. Redfield suspects that suburban Chicago voters were wood by Quinn’s political commercials that pushed Brady’s conservative views on guns, abortion, and education. Redfield said, “They did a good job of making Brady look scary.”
* Sean Trende, a Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics, published a nifty little map. The counties in blue are those that Mark Kirk outperformed fellow Republican Bill Brady. The counties in red are those where Brady did better than Kirk…
Looking at the counties where Brady ran behind Kirk, the most likely explanation is that the Democratic Governor’s Association’s advertisements emphasizing his socially conservative views took their toll. Even in a very red year, the state’s blue fundamentals took over in that race.
The DGA’s ads ran during the summer. They didn’t work. This is what happens when you write your analysis in DC and you only talk to fellow DC denizens who love to take credit for themselves.
* Bernie thinks that creationism and Sheila Simon were in the mix…
What do Sheila Simon and creationism have in common? Each might be able to take some credit for helping Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn steer clear of the Republican wave that swept the nation Tuesday.
Buoying Quinn and Simon’s likely successful election bid was strong support from minority voters. Statewide, African-Americans and Latinos cast an estimated 90 percent and 62 percent of their ballots, respectively, for the Democratic candidates according to a CNN exit poll.
62 percent of the Latino vote is pretty darned horrid. Rod Blagojevich took 83 percent of the Latino vote four years ago.
[Brady’s] campaign team assumed that independent Scott Lee Cohen would pull votes from Mr. Quinn. Wrong. As I see it, any race involving an incumbent is a referendum on that incumbent, and any third candidate just splits the anti vote.
It’s more than just random third candidates, however. Keep in mind that Cohen spent a fortune on this race. He wasn’t your usual third party also-ran.
The Brady campaign told me a few months ago that they believed Cohen wouldn’t hurt them until he got more than 7 percent of the vote. I told them at the time that I thought they were wrong. They were.
Let’s take a look at just two suburban counties. In DuPage County, Mark Kirk won by 57,338 votes and Brady won by 44,812. Third party candidates received 14,491 votes in the US Senate race, but third partiers and Scott Lee Cohen combined to score 20,188 in the governor’s race.
Lake County saw the same thing. Kirk won by 36,247 and Brady won by 15,800. Third partiers got 9,451 US Senate votes and 15,148 gubernatorial votes.
This actually happened all over suburbia.
Lots of voters took a look at Quinn and decided they couldn’t be with him. But then they looked at Brady and, for various reasons (likely the social issues, subscribe for more detailed info on why) decided they couldn’t vote for him, either. So, they went with Cohen, who spent millions on TV, mail and radio.
I told you weeks ago that when Cohen’s name was included in the polling, Quinn significantly closed the gap on Brady. For weeks, I refused to even run Rasmussen’s poll numbers until they included Cohen’s name in their surveys for that very reason.
The Cohen factor was huge, yet it’s been almost wholly ignored out there.
Scott Lee Cohen hated Pat Quinn. He got into the governor’s race thinking he could destroy Quinn. In the greatest of all 2010 ironies, Cohen ended up playing a major role in electing Quinn.
* I had heard this, but wasn’t able to confirm it last week, but Michael Sneed ran it…
Contrasting styles: Dem Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan spent the afternoon fielding the phones on Election Day in his 13th ward office . . . while Illinois House GOP leader Tom Cross played golf at Medinah Country Club in the northwest suburbs.
Without a doubt, the worst place to be right now in Illinois politics is the state’s House Republican caucus. Their leader Tom Cross went “all in” this year against House Speaker Michael Madigan and came up way short.
There were the innumerable planted newspaper stories about Madigan, including, for instance, how he apparently picked his own Republican challenger. The Republicans then staged a downtown Chicago “fundraiser” for Madigan’s invisible opponent.
Then there were the billboards along the Tollway ridiculing Madigan, which ginned up even more unflattering media coverage. Of course, there also were the countless mailers and TV ads claiming that Madigan was the real problem in Illinois.
That’s not to mention the hundreds of times Cross boldly predicted he would win the majority and finally put Madigan in his place. Madigan detested Cross before the election. It’s gone way beyond that now.
Maybe Cross truly believed he could take Madigan out. More likely, the boasting was a ruse to raise money from gullible rich Republican businessmen.
Maybe Cross figured that even if he didn’t win, Bill Brady surely would beat Gov. Pat Quinn, and then Cross would have someone to protect him and his members from Madigan’s retribution. A Brady win also would mean that Cross would have a chance at drawing the new legislative district map next year.
And maybe Cross concluded that even if he didn’t win and Brady lost, then at least Democratic Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Kilbride would lose his retention battle because out-of-state business groups were spending cash hand over fist against him. With Kilbride out, the court would at least temporarily lose its Democratic majority and might be frightened into going along with any Republican lawsuit against a Democratic district map.
Well, not only is Cross still in the minority, he won’t have a Republican governor to backstop him. And Chief Justice Kilbride won - big.
Most of Cross’ members are loyal, but they have to be worried about their future. Legislators, like most humans, are mainly concerned with self-preservation. But the Quinn/Kilbride wins mean that Speaker Madigan will draw the new district map. And the power of the map means that some of those Republicans won’t be coming back in two years. One time-tested map trick is to draw two or more “enemies” into the same district. In other words, the Republicans need to hope that the housing market improves soon because some of them will have to find new digs.
The remap always hovers above everything in Springfield. During the last redistricting process in 2001, several state senators were in the secure computer room on Sept. 11. Planes were crashing, buildings were falling, but they were checking on their boundaries. That’s how important this is to them.
It’s no secret that Madigan is not the forgive and forget type. And he’s not above using something as important as the map to “urge” compliance with his wishes. There are a whole lot of crucial votes coming up during the next several months as the General Assembly attempts to dig the state out of this massive hole.
The Republicans have spent the past three years in open, hostile opposition to Madigan, with the situation degrading sharply over the past year or so. Many of those members are trying to figure out how they can best navigate the next couple of years and preserve themselves in the process.
It’s not that simple, though. Even if some of Cross’ members bow down to His Royal Highness in exchange for map crumbs, they have another, perhaps even more serious problem to ponder.
Several House Republicans have state facilities in their districts, so they naturally are more amenable to “revenue enhancements.” Others, particularly in the suburbs, have long been allies of the teachers unions. But many of those same members surely are worried what could happen to them if they vote with the Democrats. Forget Cross. I’m talking about the tea partiers.
Just look at what the tea partiers did to established Republicans in primaries all over the country this year. In Delaware, they beat the most respected Republican in the state with a bizarre candidate who eventually had to run TV ads assuring voters she wasn’t a witch. No way does Harry Reid go back to the U.S. Senate if Nevada Republicans had nominated their sane primary candidate.
Illinois’ next primary will be held in a little over 17 months. Whatever the Republicans do next year still will be fresh in angry voters’ minds.
I just wouldn’t want to be in their shoes right now.
* Related…
* Despite big wins, Illinois GOP fell short Tuesday: “The Democrats will be in the catbird seat,” said Christopher Mooney, professor of political studies with the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois Springfield. “There’s nothing more important politically in a decade than redistricting. It’s the most political activity that a state does. It has huge implications for policy… This will be the first time under this constitution that a single party has controlled it,” Mooney said. “There’s no hat-pulling, there’s no long, drawn-out process.”
* Despite GOP wins, Democrats still control much of Illinois government: “I woke up the morning after and I thought, ‘Nothing’s different,’” said state Sen. Dave Luechtefeld, R-Okawville. “The same people are running the place.”
* House Speaker Mike Madigan has work to do: Madigan’s critics — including some quiet ones in his own party — have long argued that politics and power, not policy, consume the speaker. But policy is what we’re desperate for in this economically depressed state. Bipartisan compromise and consensus would be a welcome relief. There is no one more knowledgeable or better positioned to achieve any of this than Mike Madigan.
* Lawmakers expected to consider drastically expanding gambling: State Sen. Terry Link (D-Vernon Hills) said he’s proposing a measure this week that would allow four new casinos - one in Chicago, another in an undetermined south suburban location, one in north suburban Park City and a fourth in downstate Danville. Advocates of expanded gambling haven’t confirmed where in the south suburbs a casino would be located, but opponents of the plan say Ford Heights is a likely target.
* Horse tracks hope to hit on slots: A plan that would allow slot machines at six Illinois racetracks is expected to be introduced in Springfield this week by Sen. Terry Link (D-Vernon Hills) as part of a gambling expansion package.
