Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » 2010

Cullerton holds pension borrowing until veto session

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

Posted by Barton Lorimor

While we’re tracking the AP’s decision to call the gubernatorial election for Gov. Quinn, Senate President John Cullerton has decided not to call the pension borrowing bill until the veto session…

Senate President John Cullerton told a committee Thursday he would continue talking to the GOP and try to resurrect the multibillion plan when the fall veto session begins in 10 days.

More from the AP…

“I think the people of Illinois know I won the election,” Quinn said at a Chicago deli where he thanked people for voting on Election Day.

Exit polls showed Quinn received overwhelming support in the city of Chicago and had solid support among those from households with less than $100,000 income, labor union households and those with a family member who had lost a job in the last two years.

Brady had said Wednesday he wouldn’t concede and wanted all the votes to be counted, including absentee ballots from military members serving outside Illinois. State officials have 30 days to certify all results.

“Votes need to be counted, there are good votes, and we’re going to deal with all the data that’s there and we’ll then deal with the decision-making process as we gather data,” Brady said earlier Thursday at the state capitol because the state Senate was in session.

…Adding…
The Washington Post has more numbers…

The Associated Press called the race for Quinn this afternoon. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Quinn received 1,721,812 votes to Brady’s 1,702,399, a margin of victory of half a percentage point.

*** UPDATED 3x (5:02 p.m.) ***
Schuh just told the AP Brady does not plan to concede despite the AP calling the election.

*** UPDATED 4x (5:18 p.m.) ***
The final numbers, according to the AP are:
Pat Quinn: 1,721,812 (46.6%)
Bill Brady: 1,702,399 (46.1%)
Scott Lee Cohen: 134,219 (3.6%)
Rich Whitney: 99,625 (2.7%)

Also, the absentee vote count in Jackson County turned it over to Brady this morning by 23 votes. That means Quinn’s county victories included Cook, St. Clair and Alexander.

89 Comments

Clueless

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If Melissa Bean’s election results don’t show the rank stupidity of her campaign and the DCCC, then I don’t know what does.

Even if she somehow manages to overcome her 553-vote deficit - and that’s doubtful - this never should’ve been close.

Joe Walsh had tons of people in the field, marching in parades, knocking on doors. Bean didn’t. Bean made some bad votes for her district (health insurance, stimulus, etc.). She had always run as a conservative to moderate Democrat, but then she changed. Unfortunately for Bean, her district didn’t.

* Bean also didn’t realize until it way was too late that she was in trouble, and she quickly tried to flood the airwaves with negative ads. By then, everybody else was already on the air with their ads. She was drowned out.

And what did the DCCC do? Nothing. They could’ve weighed in late, but they didn’t. They probably thought she had it in the bag and was just being a typical whiner incumbent who always thinks she’s in trouble.

Bean won her first two races with 52 and 51 percent, respectively. She behaved like a moderate in Congress. Then she clobbered her GOP opponent two years ago, so maybe she and the DCCC figured she was unbeatable and Bean could do whatever she wanted. But 2008 was a Democratic landslide, especially here in Illinois. This time, Illinoisans were clearly furious with the Democratic Congress, and they made those feeilings known. Just ask Phil Hare, Debbie Halvorson, Bill Foster, Dan Seals and Alexi Giannoulias.

Bean apparently believed her own hype and thought she could sit on what she thought was her lead. Wave rules didn’t apply to her. And her campaign was clearly convinced that Joe Walsh’s numerous personal problems disqualified him in voters’ minds. Wrongo.

* And then there was this…

The presence of Green Party candidate Bill Scheurer of Lindenhurst also likely hurt Bean’s re-election bid.

Scheurer’s name was already familiar, since he ran for Congress in 2008 and for state representative as a Democrat in 2004. And Mezey said most of the 6,400 voters who backed Scheurer on Tuesday are probably progressive liberals who would have otherwise voted Democratic.

Third party candidates aren’t viable in Illinois, but as Bill Brady found out the hard way, they can still do you in. Bean’s campaign and the DCCC’s non-involvement was a screwup from beginning to end. And the third party angle was just one of the bigger reasons behind it.

* If anything, I now have a bit more respect for the We Ask America polling firm. While they didn’t get the final point spread right, they did have Walsh leading Bean in their last survey, and they showed the Green Party candidate getting over 5 percent. He ended up with 3, but that’s well within the margin of error.

They were also the only public pollster to predict that Bob Dold would beat Dan Seals. They got the spread way wrong, but the end result was the same. They also had Hultgren over Foster.

* Related…

* 4 Ill. House seats flip to GOP

* Dem machine wins what it most wants while losing U.S. House seats

* Behind by 553 votes, Bean won’t concede to Walsh

* Tea party favorite claims victory in U.S. House race — but nothing settled yet

* Walsh claims victory with all precincts counted

* Lyons: Tsunami unexpectedly splashed 8th District

* Dold credits catchy ad and other strategies in House win

* How Walsh surprised Bean

* Dold wants to extend tax cuts, boost economy

* Replacing Health Care Bill a Priority: Bob Dold

* In victory, Dold takes a centrist tack

* Hultgren says national issues propelled win

* Faith guides Congressman-elect Randy Hultgren

* Congressman-elect tours 14th District

* Hultgren win part of national wave

* Victory ‘humbling’ for Kinzinger

* Politics has long been a passion for U.S. Rep.-elect Kinzinger

* Kinzinger’s win no surprise to those around him

* Afghan, Iraq vet unseats Dem incumbent

* Need to Bring Government to People: Kinzinger

* Schilling out thanking voters after upset win over Hare in 17th Congressional District

* Schilling says voters are real winners

53 Comments

Question of the day

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The setup…

WLS News has learned that senior Illinois Republicans are now urging Bill Brady to concede the governor’s race to Pat Quinn.

Our John Dempsey has more.

A source tells WLS that party leaders want Brady to concede because they do not see any way he can overcome what is now a 19,000 vote deficit to Governor Pat Quinn.

The source also says the national Republican Governor’s Association is driving Brady’s decision not to concede after the group spent nearly $8 million on Brady’s attempt to defeat Quinn.

* The AP’s latest count has Quinn ahead of Brady by 19,514 votes. That’s down 47 votes from last night.

* The Question: Should Brady concede today, or should he wait until the absentee votes are counted tomorrow, or should he wait a month until the ballot is certified? Explain.

122 Comments

The ground game and Democratic and union turnout

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Democrats’ coordinated campaign…

Across Illinois, over 23,200 people knocked on doors and made phone calls over the final four days, many of them filling multiple volunteer shifts, as part of the IL Democratic Coordinated Campaign. There were 8,000 people on the street on election day alone

We knocked on over 975,000 doors and made over 380,000 phone calls over the last four days.

Over 50 percent of these voter contact efforts were concentrated in Cook County. These efforts resulted in higher than expected voter turnout within Chicago (over 50%). African American turnout was up from 2006 in many south side neighborhoods and southern Cook County townships.

ROBO CALLS IN FINAL FOUR DAYS:

80k VPOTUS
240k POTUS- “Vote tomorrow”
240k POTUS- “Vote today”

There are a lot of Democrats in this state, and when they vote (and they almost always do) they make a big difference. From the exit polling…

That’s a two-point drop in Democratic representation from 2006, and that led to some problems everywhere. But it could’ve been much worse. The ground game certainly helped keep this from being a total, complete Democratic disaster.

Illinois election day voters also had a far higher opinion of the Democratic Party than they did the Republican Party…

A 58 percent unfavorable for the GOP? Not great branding. And considering the beating the Democratic Party has taken in the media here, a 51 percent favorable is downright astounding. The result is also another indication that the Democratic Party did a better job of getting its people to the polls. And while David Miller probably didn’t have a chance against Topinka, the numbers suggest that he and Robin Kelly could’ve benefited from some coordinated campaign and/or state party help…

David Miller believes state Democratic Party leaders and unions failed him Tuesday. Miller is a dentist, a state representative since 2001 and a resident of Lynwood.

On Tuesday, he was badly defeated in his campaign for state comptroller by Republican Judy Baar Topinka (52.9 percent to 40.6 percent of the vote).

“I think African-American political leaders are going to have to take a look at these races and ask what happened,” Miller said, referring to his defeat and that of Matteson resident Robin Kelly, who’s also black and was beaten by a Republican in the state treasurer’s race.

It would’ve also helped if Miller and Kelly had put together better campaigns on their own, of course. Nothing attracts campaign assistance like success.

* And don’t forget the unions…

Quinn also latched onto organized labor. The Illinois Education Association alone scared the pants off suburban educators, convincing them Brady would decimate public education and pensions. The e-mails that circulated among teachers in the final weeks of the campaign pushed swing voters and women to vote against Brady.

Service Employees International Union, Teamsters, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and dozens of other groups dumped gobs of money and resources into Quinn’s campaign.

“The unions pulled out all the stops because (Quinn) has been very kind to them,” said Andy Shaw, a veteran political reporter and now executive director of the Better Government Association. “It proves (that) in a ‘blue’ state unions still matter.”

Quinn didn’t win a super-gigantic percentage of the union household vote, but it was enough…

Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, union households are dropping. 32 percent told exit pollsters they lived in a union household four years ago. Still, if it wasn’t for that money the unions spent and the effort they put into the campaign, it would’ve been a much worse day for the Democrats.

* Election day voters seemed more liberal than recent polls have suggested. For instance, every poll taken before the election had pluralities or even majorities of likely Illinois voters favoring repeal of the federal health care legislation. Not on election day…

* Related…

* SJ-R: State needs timely election resolution

* Cook County tallies votes that could decide governor’s race

* Officials Doubt Brady Can Top Quinn’s Lead

* Quinn mum but reportedly optimistic

* Obama calls Quinn to offer congrats

* Simon: Outcome “Looking Good” for Democrats

* Simon, like everyone, waits out a nail-biter

* Schoenburg: Simon ‘brand,’ creationism might have aided Quinn

* If Brady needs a shoulder to cry on, he should call Kirk Dillard

* Brady’s mom knows the pain of politics, many times over

40 Comments

Suburbs, ideology and third partiers cost Brady dearly

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I am hearing this myself a lot these days from Republicans…

Sneed is told GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bill Brady got machine-gunned by suburban women voters deluged by direct mailings last week highlighting his “socially-right-wing-not-exactly-pro-female agenda,” according to a GOP source.

Personal PAC did a whole lot of mail, as did other groups. Gov. Pat Quinn doesn’t believe in direct mail, so they had to pick up the slack.

* So, is this true? Well, Brady vastly outperformed Judy Baar Topinka’s 2006 numbers in the collars, but he underperformed Mark Kirk’s percentages…

Kirk also did much better than Brady in suburban Cook County…

Brady Cook suburbs: 276,432 (40%-53%)
Kirk Cook suburbs: 303,758 (44%-52%)

Kirk received almost 14,000 more votes than Brady in Chicago as well.

* The fact that Kirk outperformed Brady in the suburbs and in the city is no huge surprise, since Kirk is a suburban moderate. But Brady’s campaign made the fatal error of thinking they could make up the difference Downstate. Check out these Downstate totals…

Brady Downstate: 832,006
Kirk Downstate: 827,140

Brady simply did not concentrate enough time and effort on the suburbs. He was also never able to assuage suburban women that he wasn’t a wingnut, as Peter Fitzgerald was able to do in 1998. Brady wouldn’t send a moderate message and it cost him dearly…

Just more than one-third of those casting ballots characterized themselves in exit polls as conservatives. Yet a greater proportion - more than two in five - said they were moderates, while one in five said they were liberals.

While almost three in five Kirk voters described themselves as conservatives, about two in five labeled themselves as moderates.

Even among supporters of the Tea Party movement, who overwhelmingly backed Kirk over Giannoulias, more than one-third described themselves as moderate or liberal.

Also, more than four in 10 voters identified with the Democratic Party, compared with just three in 10 who picked the GOP. And despite electing Kirk, Illinois voters did not show a preference for Republican control of the Senate.

* And for all you conservative folks who thought that Kirk wouldn’t play well Downstate, well, now you know how wrong you are.

Brady only received 7 more votes than Kirk in his home county of McLean. And his margin over Quinn was 259 votes less than Kirk’s margin over Giannoulias. Why? Third party and independent candidates.

Scott Lee Cohen spent big bucks and got 4 percent of the vote statewide. The other two third partiers received another 4 percent, for a total of 8 percent for the gubernatorial also-rans. In the US Senate race, the third party candidates received just 5 percent of the vote. That 3 percent was crucial. And it was more prominent in Chicago and the Cook suburbs, where third party and independent gubernatorial candidates received 8 percent while third party US Senate candiates received just 4 percent.

The Brady campaign could never figure out how to deal with Cohen, and his 4 percent really hurt them in that close race. What happened was that some people who couldn’t stand to vote for Quinn took a look at Brady and decided they couldn’t be with him, either, so they went with Cohen. I’m not really sure what they could’ve done, but they didn’t do anything and that was yet another major mistake.

* Now, there were other factors in this. Chicago’s turnout, for example. The superior Democratic ground game. Bigtime union involvement for Quinn. Etc. But Brady’s over-reliance on Downstate to carry the day and his refusal to spend more time and energy portraying himself as a moderate in the suburbs are both his fault. He couldn’t control the Democrats’ game. He could control his own.

…Adding… These exit poll results pretty much say it all…

Look at the difference in the female vote between the two candidates and the difference in how both genders voted for third party candidates. Brady was hurt both ways.

* Related…

* Officials Report Close To 52% Voter Turnout

* Wins For GOP Doesn’t Mean State Turning Red

* Illinois divided at polls

* Local party leaders mull GOP’s ‘phenomenal’ victories

* Southtown: Two years later, voters call for yet more change again

* Illinois Is GOP’s Only ‘Trophy’ Senate Win

* Kirk, Giannoulias Meet for “Beer Summit”

* Alexi and Mark have a beer at the Goat

* Kirk And Giannoulias Grab A Brew

* Kirk could be new senator by end of November

* Court order could expedite Kirk’s swearing in

* Kirk ready for first vote against Obama

* Kirk Victory Could Shift Senate’s Balance of Power in Lame Duck

* Sun-Times: Will the real Mark Kirk stand up for Illinois?

* Kirk supporters say it feels like decades since GOP has been able to celebrate

* If Kirk is Sworn In Early, Who Represents the 10th District?

63 Comments

Morning Shorts

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Creditors sue over Tribune deal, allege fraud in Zell’s buyout: A committee representing Tribune’s unsecured creditors filed two complaints targeting Tribune Chairman Sam Zell, the real estate mogul who engineered the buyout; other Tribune board members; former CEO Dennis FitzSimons and other former executives, accusing them of shirking their duties so they could line their own pockets. “This L.B.O. transaction is among the worst in American corporate history,” the complaint said, according to Reuters… The buyout was “tainted from start to finish,” one of the complaints contends.

* Tony Rezko, ex-Blagojevich fundraiser, has status hearing

* Fast harvest, but conditions dry statewide

* DuPage prosecutor Joe Birkett named appellate judge

* DuPage’s Birkett appointed to appellate court

* Birkett appointed to Appellate Court

* 4 Cook judges deemed unqualified by bar are retained by voters

* Schools boss Huberman exiting early

The front-runner to replace Huberman, sources said, is Terry Mazany, CEO of the Chicago Community Trust, which has poured a huge amount of money and energy into the Chicago Public Schools under Mazany’s leadership.

Huberman may stay on as paid consultant through January to assist in the transition to a new leadership team that could be changed yet again after a new mayor is seated May 16.

* Chicago schools chief to leave post this month

* Chicago Public Schools chief Huberman leaving end of Nov.

* Huberman to leave Chicago Public Schools

* Sun-Times: Huberman picks bad time to resign, but …

* Civic Federation warns of hazards in Daley budget

Instead of taking the easy way out by putting off tough choices until after the Feb. 22 election, Msall urged the City Council to: make $85.4 million in additional spending cuts recommended by Inspector General Joe Ferguson; create a formal “withdrawal policy” to protect proceeds from the sale of city assets and build up an unreserved cash balance expected to drop to an alarming $2.7 million.

Msall further demanded that aldermen diffuse the ticking time bomb created by $12.4 billion in unfunded pension liabilities that amount to $4,348 for every Chicago resident.

* Police Supt. Weis revises minimum age restriction plan

* Aldermen propose banning alcohol-caffeine drinks

* Ban of caffeinated alcoholic drinks is on the table

* Burke: Charge charities $10 per day to solicit donations on public way

* Stroger still deciding if he will fight Oglesby’s unemployment claim

* Stroger refuses to answer question onfinalists for watchdog post

* Cabrera new City Colleges board chairman

* Blue Island mayor on vote: ‘We got killed’

* Elgin officials get first look at 2011 budget

* Buffalo Grove village president apologizes for mocking recalled trustee

* Village president sorry for mocking opponent in a wig

* Judge OKs case against Harvey mayor, detective

* City, Naperville council struggle with wards decision

* Geneva attorney is nominee for Kane state’s attorney

* Perez claims Kane County Sheriff seat

* Jockeying begins for Lake County Board chairmanship

* Trail projects get $5M in funds

* Antioch to see grant for new pool

* Carpentersville OK’s Firearms School

* Naperville eyes $10 mil tax rebate for hotel project

* Nine communities express interest in FutureGen CO2 disposal site

* R.I. Republicans: ‘This party is not dead in Rock Island County’

* 2 laid-off East Moline officers get their jobs back

* Sangamon Co. voters reject sales tax hike for schools

* Decatur Township votes to raise its tax levy 4.95 percent to collect additional $75,000

* Education sales tax squeaks to win

* 183rd firefighters to be laid off next year

* SIU Announces Closure Days

* Fioretti: Cancer like getting ‘hit by train’

* Meeks to tour Southwest Side schools

7 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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The precincts are all in and Quinn leads by 19,561 votes

Thursday, Nov 4, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* With 11,209 of 11,209 precincts reporting, Gov. Pat Quinn leads Bill Brady by 19,561 votes.

They still have to count absentees and provisionals. There may yet be some adjustments in precinct counts. But that’s a big margin to overcome.

* Mark Brown…

That’s why I was somewhat chagrined to hear Brady continue to declare Wednesday in Bloomington, “I believe we will win,” in explanation of his decision not to concede.

By all means, don’t concede while votes are uncounted, but that’s no reason to create a false expectation of winning that could end up feeding into the cynicism that election results are somehow rigged.

If he’s going to continue along this course, maybe the next time he could offer a more measured statement suggesting that he “could” still win while acknowledging the formidable odds. It would help him avoid coming across as a sore loser.

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