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Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 5:15 pm - Gov. Pat Quinn’s lead over Bill Brady is now 16,210 votes.

* And more from the Tribune…

So while Brady is expressing hope publicly, behind-the-scenes the Republican faces are grim.

One prominent Republican, who asked not to be identified to avoid upsetting Brady, said the decisions on how to proceed were being made, in part, by the Republican Governors Association, which was reluctant to throw in the towel following its very large investment in the race. […]

In Republican-heavy DuPage County, for instance, there are 3,200 unaccounted absentee ballots. But DuPage County Election Commission Executive Director Robert Saar said of those he expects less than 100 will still come in to be tallied. […]

In Champaign County, where Brady was defeating Quinn by about 9,000 votes, County Clerk Mark Sheldon said while there are about 900 outstanding absentee ballots, he expects to receive and count only about 300.

Election officials elsewhere downstate and in the suburbs told a similar story, noting that a large portion of the absentee ballots still uncounted went out to military personnel and those traditionally have a low rate of return.

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The Downstate blowout and other political oddities

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The winners write the history books, but one significant and overlooked development in Tuesday’s election was how poorly Gov. Pat Quinn did in Downstate counties. Quinn won just three: St. Clair, Jackson and Alexander. Four years ago, Rod Blagojevich won 27, including Will, which is sort of a hybrid. The only Downstate county that Quinn won which Blagojevich lost was Jackson, the home of Quinn’s running mate.

Many of these counties are tiny, isolated southern Illinois areas. But they’ve been mostly reliably Democratic since Illinois became a state. All but one went Republican during the 1994 Republican wave, but they eventually reverted to form. Gallatin, however, was the only county in all of Illinois won by Dawn Clark Netsch in ‘94. Quinn just lost Gallatin by 12 points.

Some of these counties are not so small, like Rock Island, Madison and Winnebago. That has to worry Democratic leaders.

Anyway, Blagojevich won these counties four years ago and Quinn lost them yesterday. The percentages are Bill Brady vs. Quinn…

Boone 61%-30%
Calhoun 53%-42%
Fulton 50%-41%
Gallatin 52%-40%
Hamilton 59%-35%
Hardin 62%-32%
Henderson 55%-38%
Jefferson 60%-32%
Jersey 62%-33%
Knox 54%-39%
LaSalle 51%-40%
Madison 54%-40%
Massac 65%-31%
Mercer 56%-36%
Monroe 64%-32%
Perry 52%-40%
Pope 65%-28%
Pulaski 57%-38%
Putnam 52%-39%
Randolph 53%-40%
Rock Island 50%-43%
Saline 55%-38%
Union 55%-36%
Whiteside 56%-37%
Will 51%-41%
Williamson 55%-39%
Winnebago 57%-35%

Losing Rock Island County is almost akin to losing Cook. Same with Madison. But those counties are changing. Their old-time party chairmen are gone and the remaining infrastructure is rotten. Lots of new folks continue to move into Madison, and they’re almost universally appalled at the way things are run there. Plus, how many times can you be called a national “hell hole” before it starts to grate on your nerves?

* Here’s another electoral oddity. Green Party candidate Jeremy Karpen received 35% of the vote in a Latino district against state Rep. Toni Berrios. He was vastly outspent. Independent Forrest Claypool outspent Rep. Berrios’ father in a majority white county and got 32 percent of the vote. Of course, there were more people running in the assessor’s race, but it’s still a fun fact.

* An un-fun fact. Check out the 2:10 mark of this video when Tony Peraica says of his loss yesterday “There will be a punishment to be paid for the election of my opponent.” Sheesh…

I ignored this race mostly because my former intern Kevin Fanning handled the campaign for Peraica’s opponent. But, hey, when the man gets arrested the weekend before the election, it’s difficult to skip over the thing.

* I have a question. With all the big Democratic wins in Cook County, what the heck happened here?…

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*** UPDATED x3 *** The count… Continued

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Quinn’s lead is now 12,344 votes. That’s more than one vote per precinct.

Discuss.

* 2:23 pm - The governor’s lead is now 11,851 votes, which is still more than one vote per precinct.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From Melissa Bean’s campaign…

“This election is still too close to call. There are still thousands of votes left to be counted, and we are still working to understand the provisional and absentee ballot situation. We will continue to work to understand the will of the voters.”

–Jonathan Lipman, spokesman, Melissa Bean for Congress

*** UPDATE 2 *** The governor is now ahead of Sen. Brady by 12,143 votes.

*** UPDATE 3 *** The governor’s lead is now 13,075.

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The count in Cook

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Cook County Clerk David Orr just called to fill us in on what’s going on with their count.

They have 24 precincts that haven’t yet been processed, mainly because of the same sort of cartridge problem that the city had. Those will be counted and then totals released in a couple of hours.

The county also has 9600 absentee ballots that aren’t counted, plus another 900 which came in today. Some of those that arrived today will, if history is a guide, be invalid because they were mailed after Monday’s deadline. Every day, they’ll see fewer and fewer absentee ballots come in, and fewer of those will be valid because of the postmark issue.

The absentees that they have now will likely be counted by Friday. They need to check to make sure that these people didn’t vote on election day.

The clerk also has 3600 provisional ballots. Historically, Orr said, about a quarter of those will be deemed valid.

I’d heard that there are tons of Republican lawyers hanging out at the city’s election board digs, and Orr confirmed that there were a bunch of GOP attorneys in his shop as well. So far, though, I’ve received no communication from the Republicans about any problems they’ve seen.

Orr also said that he’s called around and a bunch of counties aren’t releasing their absentee ballot totals. Kane County has about 1400 uncounted absentees, Orr said. Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn 69,497 to 49,574 in Kane (54-38). But, keep in mind that the Democratic coordinated campaign sent out all those late absentee applications.

* Also, according to the AP, Gov Quinn’s lead is 9,494 votes.

…Adding… We now have video of Brady’s Bloomington presser. Watch…

…Adding More… 2:02 pm While y’all are doing your figuring about where the uncounted vote is and what it means, I thought you might like a copy of this question on the exit poll…

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Question of the day

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Now what?

Answer any way you like, but keep it Illlinois-related.

185 Comments

Brady to speak soon - Won’t concede - 30-day wait - AUDIO - Chicago board of elections explains - Quinn all but declares victory… Again

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 10:30 am - Bill Brady’s 10:30 am announcement on the future of his campaign will be covered live by WLS Radio. Click here to listen.

[Oops. That WGN link was for the national Republicans. Back to WLS Radio for us.]

* I’ve switched over to WJBC. Click here.

* Brady is not conceding, of course. He’s going to wait for the rest of the results to come in and the election to be certified. He just said “realistically we think we’re looking at a 30-day process.”

* 10:45 am - And it’s over.

* 10:46 am - Military ballots still out there? According to state Rep. Dan Brady it’s a bit over 2000. Not enough.

* 10:58 am - Somebody mentioned the military ballot situation in comments, which was about the same thing I heard from a Republican operative on the phone today. Quinn has made it a regular practice to see the troops off to Iraq and Afghanistan. He also, of course, attends their funerals and/or wakes. He’s visited both countries and spent time with Illinois troops. This is not your usual Democrat, and the military votes might reflect that.

*** AUDIO *** From BlueRoomStream.com…

Download Link Brady presser

*** 10:38 am *** From the Chicago elections board…

We have 40 precincts out. At 1 p.m. today (Wed., Nov. 3) at the Board’s warehouse at 1819 W. Pershing, we hope to resolve most or all of those through procedures most of you may recall from the February primary, where we break the seals on the precinct records and remake the cartridges that could not be read in front of the campaigns, the media, etc.

* We processed a total of 37,127 absentee ballot applications (meaning ballots were sent to those voters). Of those, 31,335 were received by Sunday and are included in the Election Day counts we have (or in the case of the remaining 40 precincts, will soon have.) Those are the absentee ballots that were able to be logged onto the poll sheets so that judges could compare who had or had not voted.

* We have 4,418 absentee ballots that arrived Monday and Tuesday that need to be compared against affidavits that voters filed in the polling places on Election Day. If any of those absentee ballots are from voters who completed affidavits to say they were voting in the polling place out of some concern that their absentee ballot was not sent to the board in time, the corresponding absentee ballots will not be counted. We advised the campaigns last evening that it is our intent to process those on Friday, along with any absentees that arrive in the mail Wednesday and Thursday that can be compared to the affidavits and that are postmarked Nov. 1 or earlier.

* That leaves a remaining universe of approximately 1,400 absentee ballots that could arrive in the mail over the course of the next two weeks (by Nov. 16) and still be counted so long as they have postmarks of Nov. 1 or earlier.

* There also is an unofficial total of 11,210 provisional ballots where the ballots are inside an envelope, and the voter-registration records that are on the outside are then scrutinized by hand to review whether or not that voter was indeed eligible to vote in that precinct, and in turn, whether the enclosed ballot can be entered into the count.

* By law, the deadline is 5 p.m. on Thurs., Nov. 4 for the Board to receive (at 69 W. Washington St. on the 6th Floor) any supporting documentation that any voters who cast provisional ballots may want to supply, such as proof of identity, residency and/or voter registration in the precinct where they cast the provisional ballot.

*** 11:32 am *** From the Quinn campaign…

“The Quinn/Simon campaign wants every vote to be counted. We want to make sure the voice of every voter in the State of Illinois is duly counted and heard.

The ballots left to be counted appear mostly to come from Cook County, where the Governor held a large margin over Senator Brady. We expect to hold our lead, and may increase it. We do not see a path to victory for Bill Brady.

As Gov Quinn said last night, “the people have won and I we believe we won…We know there are more votes to be counted, but we are ahead.” We expect to hold that lead, and expect that Pat Quinn will continue to be our Governor.”
-Mica Matsoff, campaign spokesperson

That’s pretty much a declaration of victory, no?

75 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: This just in… See you tomorrow

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Oh, sweet irony

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Tribune’s editorial today was entitled “The Rebuke.” It was pretty thin soup…

Illinois Republicans broke the Democratic Party’s complete control of state government and captured the U.S. Senate seat once held by President Barack Obama. The gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn and GOP challenger Bill Brady was too close to call at this writing.

First, notice how they breezed past that Brady thing.

More importantly, though, the US Senate seat is not part of “state government.” That’s quite the stretch.

The state Senate, which is part of state government, gained just two Republican seats, despite the fact that the Tribune endorsed every Republican running in a contested district. And those two seats the Democrats lost were the hardest to hold. The only surprise last night in the state Senate was the large winning margins of some of the Democratic candidates. So, who was “rebuked,” exactly?

House Speaker Michael Madigan, whom the Tribune has relentlessly railed against, lost a net of six seats. But Madigan only lost one seat in the Tribune’s coverage area: Rep. Mark Walker. The Tribune, you will recall, claimed that Walker was anti-business, even though he’d been endorsed by the Illinois Chamber. So, there’s a win, I suppose. But they lost every other suburban battle.

The words “Madigan” and “Cullerton” aren’t even in the editorial. Curious, that.

Well, what about those Congressional races? Surely, the big blue lady can crow about those, right? Well, the Tribune endorsed Democrats Bill Foster and Melissa Bean. Oops.

And now for the grand finale…

Machine Democrats won control of the Cook County assessor’s office. Voters inexplicably handed the key to Joseph Berrios at the expense of independent candidate Forrest Claypool. File this one under: There is much in life that we as mortals cannot comprehend.

To all the joyful property tax lawyers who are nursing hangovers as Wednesday dawns: Your momentary discomfort is nothing like the pain the rest of us will feel if Berrios suffuses this crucial office with the pay-to-play politics he has employed on the county’s property tax appeals board.

Stay classy, boys.

33 Comments

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Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Capitol Fax Blog Advertising Department

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Tribune: 15,000 absentee ballots uncounted in Chicago and Cook - Brady to speak at 10:30 - GOP Leader threatens lawsuit

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Tribune…

Cook County and Chicago officials say they will not even count the outstanding absentee ballots today — there are nearly 15,000. Rather they will spend hours on the laborious task of ensuring the ballots are valid. Counting would not start until Thursday at the earliest.

Last night, Brady and other Republicans said the absentee ballots around the state, along with provisional ballots and votes cast by military members overseas, could make the difference.

But the outstanding ballots in Chicago and Cook County are not likely to break in Brady’s favor.

That’s what Republicans are trying to figure out this morning — how many of such ballots are out there, and if they come from areas where Brady has an expectation of picking up substantial numbers.

* ABC7 says it’s more…

I-Team reporter Chuck Goudie was at the Cook County Board of Elections until early Wednesday. He estimated that upwards of 20,000 absentee votes remained uncounted. Those ballots remained under lock and key at the Board of Elections early Wednesday morning.

Last night, Fox Chicago reported that 9,000 absentees remained to be counted by the Chicago elections board.

* Bill Brady is meeting with his staff right now to decide what to do next…

Just a few hours after calling it a night, state Sen. Bill Brady and his campaign staff are meeting to decide what the gubernatorial campaign staff will do next.

Campaign spokeswoman Patty Schuh said early today that Brady and his staff are gathered in Bloomington and aren’t yet sure how to proceed.

Brady is expected to speak at 10:30 this morning. Stay tuned.

…Adding… Oops. I missed this one…

As expected, not all absentee ballots will be counted [last night] in Chicago and Cook County–but Republicans expecting a close fight for governor were complaining about it just the same.

Illinois GOP chairman Pat Brady, who was with Republican governor candidate Bill Brady in Bloomington, said his party would file a lawsuit, though it was unclear what its impact would be. […]

In Chicago, 37,132 absentee ballot applications were mailed out and more than 31,000 of those have been processed, Allen said. That leaves about 6,000 possible ballots that could be processed later this week, he said.

In Cook County, 33,000 applications had been mailed out with 14,000 processed through Saturday that will be counted tonight. Another 3,700 ballots had been processed by county election officials Monday and today, but would not be counted until later this week.

The GOP boss said that’s not good enough. He said it’s not a matter of whether the think that such a small number of votes could be the difference in the election, but that all the votes should be counted on Election Night.

I agree they should be counted on election night, but you’re gonna file a lawsuit over this? I thought Republicans were for tort reform?

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Morning Videos: Quinn, Brady, ILGOP, Cohen, Kirk, Giannoulias, Dold, Halvorson, Burris

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* For once, Gov. Pat Quinn didn’t talk forever last night, and he stopped just shy of declaring victory. Watch it…

* Bill Brady addressed his supporters a little earlier in the evening and said “This isn’t going to be decided tonight.” Have a look…

* I’ve taken down some of the embeds because they were screwing up my site. Here they are…

* Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady talks about the governor’s race

* Scott Lee Cohen was characteristically unclassy

* Mark Kirk’s victory speech

* Alexi Giannoulias’ concession speech

* Bob Dold talks to ABC7

* Debbie Halvorson’s concession speech

* And Roland Burris claims that people actually want him to run for mayor

* Kirk Q&A 1

* Kirk Q&A 2

* Kirk Q&A 3

* Kirk Q&A 4

15 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Final guv race results trickle in

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

Posted by Barton Lorimor

** 2:20 a.m. Rich is taking a break between now and the time he needs to write the Subscriber’s edition later this morning. Any one out there up for spending the early morning with the intern?

Boo ya.

The governor’s lead is now at 8,349 as the only precincts not reporting are inside Cook County and the City of Chicago. You may recall from the exit polling released last night that Quinn did quite well in these areas today despite what some previous polls predicted during the last month.

To be specific, we’re looking at 27 precincts in the county and 48 precincts inside the city. Since the Chicago Board of Election’s Web site went down earlier this morning, we don’t know which Chicago precincts are missing. Not even the Quinn campaign staffer I spoke to a few moments ago was sure what parts of the city have not been counted.

* Meanwhile, here’s a quick round-up of some of the early editions…

* SJ-R: Tight gubernatorial race not a surprise

* Quinn, Brady in a squeaker

* Sweet: Illinois Governor Race Between Pat Quinn, Bill Brady a Cliffhanger

* Dem Quinn clings to thin margin in Ill. gov. race

* Quinn Believes Victory May Be At Hand

* Quinn Supporters Boo Brady’s Non-Concession

** 2:36 a.m. For those interested, below is video of Quinn’s and Brady’s speeches to their supporters earlier tonight provided by CBS 2.

Quinn…

Brady…

113 Comments

Who were the biggest winners and biggest losers?

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your thoughts?

78 Comments

Die-hard election results live-blog - ONLY CHICAGO, COOK COUNTY REMAIN; Fox: 9,000 absentees in Chicago

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Midnight - I’m staying up. You with me?

* Oh, and in case you were wondering, Gov. Quinn’s lead is now 7,576 votes.

*** 12:06 am *** Bill Brady just said the election won’t be decided tonight, so that’s it for him.

*** 12:10 am *** The AP has declared Republican Bob Dold the winner in the 10th CD.

* 12:33 am - The Quinn margin is now 10,933.

* 12:39 am - This is odd. Here is the AP total for Speaker Madigan’s district…

November 03, 2010 - 01:30AM ET
State House - District 22 - General
Illinois - 43 of 87 Precincts Reporting - 49%
Madigan , Michael (i) Dem 8,294 81%
Ryan , Patrick GOP 1,889 19%

Notice that less than half the precincts are reported as counted. But the city and the county both have MJM’s district as completely counted.

So, either somebody forgot to update a single district. Or, the AP isn’t including those MJM district totals in their grand totals. I strongly suspect it’s the former, not the latter. But one never knows.

*** 12:43 am *** From Caroi Fowler of Fox Chicago…

9k absentee ballots in Chicago still to be counted.

That would be the ballgame.

* 12:48 am - Quinn’s lead is now 9,033.

* 12:50 am - Precincts not yet counted statewide: 266. Precincts not counted in Chicago: 53. Not counted in Cook: 69, which is the same as earlier. I hope David Orr has not gone to bed. That would suck.

* 12:54 am - Quinn to crowd: “It looks like another landslide victory is heading our way.”

* 12:55 am - The governor’s lead is now 9,133.

* 12:57 am - Quinn: “I think when all is said, we’ll end up on top with the most votes.” And the crowd goes wild.

* 1:04 am - Great. Just great. The Chicago elections results website is down.

* 1:16 am - The AP hasn’t updated in a while, so I’m gonna take a nap. Update in comments if you wish. Thanks much for everything tonight. I have the greatest commenters on Planet Earth. Bar none!

*** 1:30 am *** Barton here. As Rich said, the CBOE’s Web site is down, but Cook County and the AP continue to provide updates. There are now 32 precincts that still need to be counted in the County. Quinn leads by 8,515.

* 1:43 am - Some new data from the city board. There are now 48 Chicago precincts uncounted. Quinn leads Brady in the city precincts that have been counted 75.4% - 17.5%.

* 1:50 am - It would appear as if the downstate vote is done being counted, according to a graphic POLITICO is maintaining with data from the AP. It’s on you, Cook County.

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