* 6:00 pm - The House Democrats’ “budgeteer” told reporters this evening that he believes there is a passable income tax deal on the table.
The proposal would raise personal income tax by 2 points, rather than the 2.25 points in the earlier version. The corporate income tax hike would be cut in half.
Rep. Frank Mautino said there were a lot of things still being debated on the spending side, but that there would be a hard expenditure increase cap. Any spending above that cap would automatically trigger the nullification of the tax hike law.
Mautino said he believed this new plan could be passed and sent to the governor’s desk.
It wasn’t entirely clear whether the cigarette tax hike will be included in the mix, however. Mautino said proponents were still working the issue.
Rep. Frank Mautino, D-Spring Valley, and Sen. Emil Jones III, D-Chicago, said the new rate under consideration for businesses is 7 percent. Last week’s plan had the corporate rate rising from 4.8 to 8.4 percent.
“I think it moves the ball,” Mautino said.
By changing the corporate rate, the business community could save $500 million a year, said Mautino. […]
“The last two components are the big ones,” Mautino said. “You have to have cuts, and if we put that (hard) cap on (spending), make no mistake about it, there will be cuts.”
* This is no idle threat. The URF’s pre-election report showed the group raised about $440K between July 1 and the beginning of October. From a press release…
The United Republican Fund (URF) has announced that they will aid in the recruiting and support of primary challengers to any Republican member of the Illinois General Assembly that votes in favor of raising taxes during this lame duck session. […]
“The URF is opposed to tax increases in any amount, and we will help to primary any Republican legislator that supports an increase in taxes over cuts in spending. If we fail to stop these tax increases, the cost to Illinois families and businesses will be devastating.”
Jim Tobin believes six Republicans are leaning in favor of a tax hike, four in the House and two in the Senate. I doubt any of them would vote for the increase in its current form except maybe one or two lame ducks. And you can’t primary those guys.
* Quinn sworn in, promises to be “humble governor”
* Quinn sworn in as Illinois governor at inauguration
* Quinn, the ‘accidental governor,’ begins full term as Illinois faces historic budget crisis
* Quinn takes oath amid increased security in Springfield
* Gov. Pat Quinn will be sworn in today at noon for a full term. You can watch live video or listen to audio by clicking here. The live feeds starts at noon 11 o’clock this morning. All constitutional officers will be sworn in today and all will speak.
Please help out by live-blogging in comments if you can. Thanks.
This post will replace our usual Question of the Day.
* 11:08 am - If you were having trouble with the IIS video/audio links before, they’re working now so try again. Also, if you’re not interested in listening to the concert band, BlueRoomStream has a bit of B-Roll of the Inauguration setup at the Prairie Capital Convention Center…
* 11:17 am - The band is now playing “Holding Out For A Hero.” From the lyrics…
Gonna take a Superman to sweep me off my feet
I wonder who picked that song. Sheesh.
* 11:32 pm - Mayor Daley is in da House and was greeted with loud applause.
* 12:01 pm - Illinois Supreme Court Justice Anne Burke will administer the oath to Gov. Quinn. Justice Burke’s husband, the Chicago alderman, was a major financial supporter of the governor’s campaign in the primary and general elections.
And here comes the speech…
Begins with a reference to the Arizona shootings. “There are some who are still alive and we ask God for their recovery.”
“We need to end the violence, and end the silence about the violence.”
“As St. Paul once said, ‘Love is patient, love is kind and love never fails.’ It’s so important in America that we have that love, and right here in Illinois.”
Praises his opponents Dan Hynes and Bill Brady for entering the arena of democracy.
“But in the end, after the election is passed and before the next election we are all one people… We must be one people to address the challenges ahead.”
“When our time on earth is finished, they will not ask each of us what kind of car we drove, or what kind of house we lived in, or how big our bank account was…” Says they will ask about what we did for the children. “Our job is to make sure that we take care of our babies in every way we can, to make sure they have a decent future.”
“Education is the strongest force in our land for equal opportunity. And we must thank our teachers, our parents certainly, and all of those who taught us along the way… We thank them for sacrificing some of their present in order to help our future.”
“I haven’t won every election. I’ve lost a few along the way. And there is a saying ‘One day a peacock, the next day a feather duster.’ I’ve been there.”
The governor is beginning to choke up as he speaks of his late father. “He believed in the ethic of service. Service to others is the rent we pay for our place on God’s earth.”
“I want to be a humble governor who is proud of our people.”
[Speaking to soldiers] “My heart is ever at your service.”
“All of us must band together for the common good. Whether you wear a military uniform or not, all of us have duty of service.”
“We formed our government and we will reform our government.”
“Democracy is a Divine gift and we must treasure it and nurture every day”
“We know very well that our government suffered an integrity crisis prior to my [I think he started to say “rule” but then stopped himself and said his time in office]… We have replaced a government of deals with a government of ideals. And I believe that must be our principle every day that we are alive.”
“We also must deal with a fiscal crisis. And I’m here today to say that we will pay our bills, to say that we will stabilize our budget, we will strengthen our ecomony. We will do that and we will do it very, very soon.”
The governor said he believed leaders would act “very quickly” to address the budget problems.
“The number one civil right is the right to a job.”
Quinn touted unemployment numbers “lower than the national average” and “eight straight months of declining unemployment.” Said he wants to “cut our unemployment rate in half.” Said education would help “because jobs follow brain power.”
“We also have to understand our transportational advantages in Illinois… We have great, great rail systems.”
Anybody else get the feeling that he might be winging this?
If you’re looking for information on Marine Capt. Ryan Anthony Beaupre, whom the governor just lauded, click here. Quinn also referenced Capt. Beaupre in his State of the State address.
“We can have an honest government with a balanced budget and a prosperous economy.”
End.
* 12:35 pm - Lt. Gov. Shelia Simon
“My goal, our mission, is to pass on a state that’s in a better condition than when we found it.” Bar’s pretty low there.
* 12:44 pm - Attorney General Lisa Madigan takes the oath.
“As always, my deepest gratitude goes to my wonderful family.”
“To my father Mike, whose quiet example I have long valued. Thank you for teaching me the value of hard work and showing me the value of public service.”
* 1:03 pm - Comptroller Topinka is being sworn in by her son. The younger Topinka jokingly asked his mom to take a deep breath before beginning. Topinka broke in halfway through by cracking “That’s getting awful long.” During her first inauguration in 2005, Topinka made a flatulence joke. I was told there was not going to be such a joke this time, however.
“First let me say it is good to be back.”
Praises Dan Hynes as a “great comptroller.” “He’s going to be a hard act to follow.”
“Running to be fiscal officer of a financially strapped state, it kinda makes you wonder ‘What is she thinking?’ Well, let me tell you what I’m thinking. I’m thinking it’s about time to put aside petty partisan bickering.”
“Both parties have for a very, very long time have helped dig this ditch. We’re all responsible. And since we all dug, it’s time that we got together to find the courage, the will and the civility to pull ourselves out of that ditch and make Illinois great again.”
“We’ve got adults [leading government], finally.”
“It’s time to fix this state because I am not going away until we do. So that should scare you, OK?”
* My syndicated newspaper column is due every Friday afternoon. Since papers publish it from Sunday all the way to Thursday, I couldn’t really write about the tax hike. So, I thought I’d give readers a little remap primer. Here you go…
The official Census numbers were released not long ago. The statistics revealed that Illinois will lose one congressional seat when the new district maps are drawn.
It’s impossible to know exactly what will happen with the new maps since block-level Census numbers aren’t yet available. That very specific, hyper-local data is plugged into computer programs so mapmakers can draw the new congressional and legislative boundaries. The data should arrive in late March or early April.
Once that happens, the Democrats will go to work.
Ten years ago, when the governor’s office and the Illinois Senate were controlled by Republicans and the House was run by the Democrats, the powers that be compromised by allowing incumbent congressmen to draw their own district maps.
That was a huge mistake. The incumbents did what incumbents do: They protected themselves to the point that the districts were gerrymandered worse than they’ve been in a century. The zig-zagging district running from Rock Island to Decatur made Illinois a laughing stock — as if we needed any more of that.
This time, the Democrats control all three branches of state government, so they’ll be drawing those congressional districts themselves. Senate President John Cullerton has vowed to not make the same mistake committed by his predecessor, so we hopefully won’t see anything too weird.
What we will see, however, are as many Democratic congressional and state legislative districts as humanly (or, more to the point, computerly) possible, since the Republicans are cut out of the process.
The 2010 election, with its national Republican landslide, was a blessing of sorts for Democratic mapmakers. They now have a very good idea what and where their baseline support is, since they did so poorly outside Chicago and Cook County.
Illinois has voted so solidly Democratic since the last district maps were drawn in 2001 that it was difficult to know who the true swing voters were. But with Republicans voting in near-record numbers and Democrats losing all over the place in November, now, they know.
Will and Kane counties have experienced major population growth over the past couple of decades, and we’ll almost surely see more state legislative districts in those areas. Both counties are far more “swing” now than their nearly solidly Republican days before the great exurban migration began.
Few if any downstate districts actually grew in population. All districts have to contain the same population, so that means all downstate state legislative and congressional districts will have to be much larger geographically than in the past. Some districts will be downright huge because of population problems.
Some Chicago districts also have seen population declines and many suburban areas haven’t experienced population growth to match the rapidly expanding exurbs, so most of those districts will expand as well. Chicago districts near the city’s border most likely will be extended even further into the suburbs. That could crowd out some Republican incumbents.
The state’s Latino population has increased, so we likely will see more Latino districts, partly because the Democrats want to avoid a lawsuit against the new map by some historically legally aggressive Latino groups. Chicago’s China Town won’t be split up between several districts any longer because of new state legislation. Chicago’s African-American population has continued moving into the south suburbs, but it’s not certain yet whether the migration has been enough to create new black districts, as it did 10 years ago.
Then, there will be all the little games. House Speaker Michael Madigan, for instance, is expected to go after state Rep. Dennis Reboletti (R-Elmhurst), who has survived some close calls. Many of Illinois’ newly elected Republican congressmen also could find themselves out of a job.
Some Republicans actually will be helped by redistricting.
Democratic mapmakers often try to make a district competitive by poaching as many of their own voters as they can from surrounding GOP districts and packing Republican voters into those same Republican districts.
And some heavily Democratic districts could lose partisan strength as mapmakers move some of their voters to nearby districts in order to make those districts more politically competitive. Democratic incumbents may not like it, but that’s how it goes.
Also keep in mind that we likely will see the first actual General Assembly vote on a “real” state legislative district map since way back in 1971. Every map since then was drawn by a special commission because the two parties couldn’t come to an agreement.
The new maps probably are the least interesting aspect of politics to voters, but incumbents and wannabes watch this as close as they can for obvious reasons. So, you should, too.
* 10:12 am - The House just spent about 45 minutes debating a Senate-approved bill that would outlaw so-called blunt wraps. From the synopsis…
Amends the Drug Paraphernalia Control Act. Includes in the definition of objects intended to be used unlawfully in ingesting, inhaling, or otherwise introducing cannabis, cocaine, hashish, or hashish oil into the human body that constitute drug paraphernalia, individual tobacco wrappers, known as wraps, blunt wraps, or roll your own cigar wraps, that are made wholly or in part of tobacco, including reconstituted tobacco or flavored tobacco, whether in the form of a sheet or tube, if such wrappers are designed to be sold or distributed to individuals.
This was partly about one company trying to get an advantage over another company by using Drug War scare tactics.
The bill passed the Senate 56-0 in December. Today was a different story, however. The House resoundingly voted it down 42-69. That’s not enough “Yes” votes to put the bill on Postponed Consideration, so it’s dead unless somebody files a motion to reconsider.
This was a trivial, goofy bill and the House should’ve avoided it while the tax hike plan, workers compensation, the capital bill and other major proposals are still not yet finished. But, hey, at least it’s dead.
* Speaking of motions to reconsider, the medical marijuana bill might not be dead yet…
Representative Rita (D) (Blue Island) who voted NO on SB 1381, was asked to file a motion to reconsider the vote,which he did. Usually, they do that immediately after the vote. At any rate this means THE BILL CAN BE CALLED for another vote!
* The Arizona shooting rampage has nerves a bit on edge in Springfield. Statehouse security yesterday was normal, which means fairly light. Nobody was stationed at the end of the northern drive entrance when I went by a few times, but a handful of guards were inside the building.
As I’ve already told you, security at today’s Inauguration events will be tightened, but it won’t be over the top…
Illinois State Police plan to beef up security a bit when Gov. Pat Quinn and other state officials are sworn into office.
Spokesman Scott Compton says there won’t be any major changes in the aftermath of an Arizona shooting spree that left a member of Congress critically injured.
But Compton says some additional officers will be present for Monday’s ceremony. He says they will be visible to the public in an effort to discourage anyone who might be thinking about causing trouble.
While most Illinois lawmakers said they planned on being more cautious and working with local police departments when holding big, public events, not one said he or she was about to scale back from what they say is the most important part of their job, meeting with constituents — even without security.
Rep. Don Moffitt, R-Gilson, said “Senseless! This is just a senseless attack on democracy. We can not let an incident like this cause elected officials to be afraid to speak-up on issues that are important. We cannot be afraid to meet with our constituents. And our constituents cannot be afraid to meet with us.”
Treasurer-elect Dave Rutherford (D)-Illinois says, “It’s a horrible occurrence that took place out there but you just can’t stop continuing to work with people and to say hello to them, be out and shake hands.”
And that’s exactly what happened in Springfield Sunday night. Still, mixed in with the politicians and the public, plenty of security.
Scott Compton, Chief Public Information Officer with Illinois State Police says, “We changed our plans somewhat but not substantially. Additional officers in uniform were added to the detail but at this point that’s been the main change as a result of the shooting.”
Among the politicians there, Senator Mark Kirk (R)-Illinois, who has a town hall meeting of his own scheduled for Monday in Collinsville.He says he’ll do a total of six in the coming weeks.
It’s extremely important that our leaders, the media and the people not grossly overreact and succumb to fear. Fear leads to some very bad public policy. Caution is wise. Irrational moves are not.
* Meanwhile, in Chicago, the media initially pounced on a report that Congressman Danny Davis had received an e-mail threat…
U.S. Rep. Danny Davis said his office received an e-mail threat on Sunday.
“It was some person who emailed one of my staff persons and said that ‘Danny Davis is next,’” Davis said. Davis, a Chicago Democrat, said the Capitol Police and Chicago police have been notified.
Howevever, Fox Chicago reported that the threat was actually a question…
According to published reports, members of Congress reported 42 cases of threats or violence in the first three months of 2010, which is nearly three times the 15 cases reported during the same period the year before.
That Arizona gunman was obviously insane. The big worry right now is about copycats, insane or not. Davis was right to forward that e-mail to the authorities, but he’s also right to continue on without worrying too much.
* Note to commenters: Do not allow this post to devolve into a finger-pointing exercise or I’ll just shut down comments and start banning people. Keep a cool head or you’ll be asked to leave. Thanks.
“As we have [rules against strikes] for police and firefighters, I would have it for teachers because they provide an essential service,” Emanuel said.
Emanuel also said he supports the education reform bill that’s bouncing around the House right now. The bill is currently stalled, but the candidate said it should go forward.
“At some point in the last negotiations, they were offered $345 million for an extra 45 minutes,” Emanuel said. “They actually rejected more money. Then it came down to 30 minutes, 20 minutes, 5 minutes. Two-thirds of all juvenile crimes occur from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. when they’re not in school.” […]
If the teachers will not agree to work longer hours for more pay, he will ask state legislators to mandate more hours of school in Chicago for students to graduate — a new “floor” of hours the schools must meet.
“We have to create a floor as a minimum,” Emanuel said. “If you offer $345 million for an extra 45 minutes and it’s turned down, we’re not having a serious discussion.”
Congressman Luis Gutierrez called Gery Chico “a neighborhood guy with neighborhood values” as he threw his support behind the mayoral hopeful at a press conference Sunday at the National Museum of Mexican Art in the Pilsen neighborhood.
More than once Gutierrez invoked the late Chicago Mayor Harold Washington in explaining why he opted to endorse Chico. “I worked hard to elect Harold Washington, and I see the same qualities in Gery” said Gutierrez.
The Congressman said Chico, a former Chicago Public Schools president, is the best-qualified candidate to make changes in the local school system. “Gery understands the school system and that makes all the difference,” said Gutierrez.
*** UPDATE *** The Chico campaign just released two new ads. Watch…
From a press release…
The ads, “Model” and “Embrace,” will run together at a substantial level – matching the Emanuel campaign’s current ad buy…
Chico’s ad “Model,” emphasizes his neighborhood roots and highlights his record of creating local jobs, putting cops on our streets, and leading the reform of Chicago’s public schools that President Clinton called a model for the nation.
Chico’s ad, “Embrace” features Gery speaking from the heart about creating jobs and putting neighborhoods back to work by breaking down the wall of bureaucracy at City Hall.
* Emanuel holds lead in Chicago: Braun had the highest unfavorable rating among the candidates, 41 percent; 50 percent viewed her favorably. Emanuel’s favorable rating was 68 percent, versus 22 percent who held a negative view. Braun was the top choice among black voters but still took less than half their votes, at 43 percent. Emanuel, the former chief of staff to President Obama, got 32 percent of the African-American vote in the poll. If Emanuel and Braun were the only two candidates, the potential runoff scenario, Emanuel’s lead grew to 22 points, 53 percent to 31 percent, according to the poll.
* Braun tries to broaden appeal beyond black voters: Even Braun’s own spokeswoman acknowledged getting worried when the candidate opens her mouth. “Am I a little nervous when she starts to talk to people?” Renee Ferguson said. “Yes, I am.”
The state income tax increase proposal first became public last Thursday still had not taken the form of a bill Sunday night that the Illinois General Assembly could consider. Sunday marked the passage of another 24-hour period without any public progress to report towards solving the state’s fiscal crisis.
House Speaker Michael Madigan left the well Sunday night without explaining what had gone wrong. He had called his chamber back to Springfield for a rare Sunday session to consider an income tax increase, but obviously to some, the majority Democrats had not convinced enough of their own members.
“I think the clock is ticking, and I think they’re scrambling to find votes,” said Rep. Jim Durkin, a Republican representing Western Springs.
The bid to raise Illinois’ income tax remained stalled Sunday as Gov. Quinn and top Democrats in the Legislature huddled privately to tweak the troubled package enough to win over a divided House Democratic caucus. […]
Quinn met with House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) and Senate President John Cullerton (D-Chicago) for more than 90 minutes, but none of Springfield’s ruling Democrats would answer questions about what was discussed or rate the likelihood of a revenue package passing before a noon Wednesday deadline.
[Rep. Naomi Jakobsson, D-Urbana] said the latest version of the income tax legislation she’s seen has the rate increase cut back from what was discussed last week. Instead of the individual rate increasing from 3 percent to 5.25 percent, it would rise to 4.75 percent, she said. The increase in the corporate rate would be smaller too.
If that’s the case, then the school increase might be out of the mix, as well as the property tax rebate.
On Sunday, Quinn sought to avoid answering questions about the tax plan in a style reminiscent of his predecessor, disgraced ex- Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Quinn used back doors and hallways in the labyrinthine Capitol to escape the spotlight and attend to pre-inaugural festivities ahead of Monday’s swearing-in ceremony.
Quinn once again spent time behind closed doors with fellow Democrats House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton as the noon Wednesday deadline for quick action looms. Afterward, all Quinn would say was “we’re working hard” when asked about tax hike talks.
* Sending legislators home for the weekend with a tax hike vote hanging out there meant a whole lot of them came back to town more than a bit scared about what they’re being asked to do. The tax hike is just too high, the property tax relief is too low, and there are big concerns that not a single budget cut has been proposed.
Rep. Karen May talked to reporters yesterday after attempting to meet with the governor’s top budget staff. Rep. May said suburban legislators want no new spending or new programs and said one idea might be to nullify the income tax increase if spending caps are breached. Watch…
Quinn doesn’t want the hard limit on state spending, arguing to Democratic leaders that he should have the flexibility to increase it, particularly for education, a source familiar with the discussions said.
Legislators are quick to say there is little support for the current plan, and there is little agreement on a Plan B. State Rep Frank Mautino, D-Spring Valley, said hundreds of millions of dollars in new money for schools is as much of a problem as the 75 percent income tax increase.
“The main concern is that there can’t be any new spending. All of our members know that the structural deficit here is equal to a two percent income tax [hike].” […]
State Rep Mike Boland, D-East Moline, said his phone rang off the hook with complaints about the 75 percent hike.
“I’ve had hundreds of calls both to my office down here and district office, and even my home. And I’ve only had one call that was for a tax increase.” […]
[State Rep. Mike Tryon, R-Crystal Lake] said the ticking clock is getting loud.
“I think if it doesn’t pass by Tuesday it’s not gonna happen,” he said.
* The clock is definitely ticking. Democratic Rep. Jack Franks believes that, in the end, nothing will pass…
No one is certain what will happen if the tax increase package — or some permutation of it — does not pass now.
“You would have a continuation of deficit spending and borrowing, further deterioration of our bond ratings, and the image that we convey to businesses that might want to come here as that of instability,” Mr. Cullerton said grimly. “It would be disastrous.” […]
“We are very close to things becoming unraveled,” said Richard F. Dye, the co-author of a study released last week by a University of Illinois institute titled “Titanic and Sinking: The Illinois Budget Disaster.” The report suggested that doing nothing is simply no longer an alternative.
“It won’t take long,” Mr. Dye said, “for this backlog of bills to be so outrageous that people will not deal with the state.”
Illinois’ fiscal problems are so enormous that no single option is going to balance the budget. Economic recovery will be slow, and even a dramatic decline in the unemployment rate would not come close to eliminating the deficit. Taking on even more debt is not a solution, because it just makes the fiscal situation worse in the future.
No single revenue increase—at least not any of plausible magnitude—will be sufficient to eliminate the $11.9 billion deficit projected for FY2012, much less the extra $13-15 billion deficit that includes the carry-over from imbalance in FY2009-2011.
We start so out of balance that even an absolute freeze on all spending will not achieve balance in a 10-year time horizon. Spending cuts would have to be of a magnitude that would shut down entire core functions of state government. Bringing Illinois to fiscal solvency will require state government to implement multiple and massive policy changes. If nothing is done soon, the state of Illinois faces a very bleak future.
