Barring a late surge of voters, election officials are estimating voter turnout in today’s mayoral election could be as low as 40 percent, well off the 50 percent predicted.
* I was told tonight that Rahm Emanuel’s poll last Thursday had him at 47 percent, which was way down from polls earlier in the week.
* 7:38 pm - 75 percent of the vote is in and Emanuel has 54.44 percent.
* 7:41 pm - with 75 percent of the vote in, Rep. Susana Mendoza has 60.5 percent of the vote in the city clerk’s race.
* 7:44 pm - With 60 percent of the vote counted, Ald. Berny Stone has 37.66 percent to Deb Silverstein’s 34 percent. Looks like a runoff there.
* 7:51 pm - CNN is projecting Emanuel the winner without a runoff. Makes sense.
* 7:53 pm - I’m really getting tired of watching WGN. Anybody find an alternative yet? Sheesh, that panel is awful.
* 7:56 pm - The upset of the night looks to be the 47th Ward, where the anointed Tom O’Donnell is in second place behind Ameya Pawar, who has just over 50 percent with 83 percent counted.
* 8:01 pm - Huge news in Springfield, where former mayor Mike Houston is in first place with 28 percent. Sheila Stocks Smith is in second with about 20 percent. Mike Coffey and Frank Kunz are basically tied for third at 17 percent. The top four advance to the runoff in Springfield. Over 40 percent of the vote has been counted.
* I told subscribers about this major demographic change in this morning’s Capitol Fax. The stuff about Madigan moving his ward Northward into some of the 23rd Ward was told to subscribers months ago…
Meanwhile, with both the 13th and 14th Wards now overwhelmingly Hispanic, the question is how long both can continue to hold on. Unlike Mr. Burke, Mr. Madigan is not an alderman. But I’m already picking up talk that Mr. Madigan would like his ward to shift into still non-Hispanic white territory in the 23rd Ward.
Whatever happens, the new mayor will have huge influence over the new map. That will give him or her a nice card to keep Messrs. Burke and Madigan in line until the new map is approved.
Good point on the map.
You can see an interactive ward map detailing the population changes by clicking here. Latinos now outnumber whites by about 3-1 in Speaker Madigan’s 13th Ward.
(T)he central core of the city – around the Loop and out toward the Near Northwest Side – are population-heavy. That area could get a new ward. […]
Three of the four largest wards in town now are in or near downtown, the location for dramatic growth in the past decade. Those would be Alderman Brendan Reilly’s Near North Side/Loop 42nd Ward, with 78,742 residents, according to the Census; Alderman Bob Fioretti’s 2nd Ward to the south and west of the 42nd, with 69.367 residents, and Alderman Scott Waguespack’s greater Bucktown 32nd Ward, with 63,701.
As Greg says, that’s about a new Downtown ward right there with just those three numbers.
The best news Rahm Emanuel got last week didn’t come from his pollster. It came from the United States Census Bureau, when it released the population figures for Chicago.
The city’s population declined by 200,000 — but those were mostly people who wouldn’t have voted for Emanuel. Englewood lost a quarter of its population. The black population that Carol Moseley Braun has been trying to rally accounted for nearly all of Chicago’s population loss.
“The trend is a result for the plan for transformation of the Chicago Housing Authority, and the displacement of 110,000 people,” mayoral candidate William “Dock” Walls told Ward Room. “Some of ’em have left Chicago. They’ve gone to the suburbs, or Indiana.”
On the other hand, the Loop’s population increased 76 percent. The Loop is Rahm Country. Emanuel is getting his best numbers from high-income whites who live along the Lakefront.
House Democrats are leaving the state rather than vote on anti-union legislation, The Indianapolis Star has learned.
A source said Democrats are headed to Illinois, though it was possible some also might go to Kentucky. They need to go to a state with a Democratic governor to avoid being taken into police custody and returned to Indiana.
The House came into session this morning, with only two of the 40 Democrats present. Those two were needed to make a motion, and a seconding motion, for any procedural steps Democrats would want to take to ensure Republicans don’t do anything official without quorum. […]
Today’s fight was triggered by Republicans pushing a bill that would bar unions and companies from negotiating a contract that requires non-union members to kick-in fees for representation. It’s become the latest in what is becoming a national fight over Republican attempts to eliminate or limit collective bargaining.
Amazing.
…Adding… Y’know, if this keeps up, we may have to build a fence.
* As you probably know by now, Wisconsin’s new Republican governor wants to strip collective bargaining rights from most public employee unions for everything but wages. Wages, however, would be capped at the Consumer Price Index (raises beyond that would have to approved by a public referendum) and unions would face annual retention elections.
* The Question: Should public employee unions in Illinois be stripped of their collective bargaining rights for benefits like health care and pensions? Explain.
Try to stick to the question, please.
* Related…
* Wisconsin senators living day-to-day south of border - Escape to Illinois to avoid vote on budget leaves lawmakers short on essentials
* In Illinois, Wisconsin Senate Democrats vow unity
* I’ve heard of throwing rocks through a campaign headquarters’ window before an election, but a volunteer? That’s a new one on me…
A volunteer working for 19th Ward aldermanic candidate Anne Schaible’s campaign was injured Monday night when he was thrown through a campaign office window, her campaign manager Tom Mannix said.
Mannix said the volunteer appeared to be scuffling with a man outside the office, 10319 Kedzie Ave., at about 5:30 p.m. Mannix said he turned his back to call 911, and the volunteer was thrown through the window, with pieces of glass hitting Mannix in the back.
The volunteer suffered facial cuts and was taken to a local hospital, but didn’t appear seriously injured, Mannix said.
The unknown assailant got into a red two-door coupe that had been parked on Kedzie Avenue and fled, Mannix said. He said police arrived and took statements from witnesses.
The Southtown-Star reports that as of two hours after the incident there was no police report on file. Wouldn’t that be something if it was just a stunt? Throwing your own volunteer through your own campaign window would be the craziest twist yet on Chicago politics.
Seriously, though, I hope nobody was hurt too badly.
*** UPDATE *** With thanks to a commenter for the link, it appears to be some domestic battery nastiness…
A 44-year-old Chicago man faces two misdemeanor charges after police say he confronted his ex-girlfriend’s boyfriend and threw the man through a plate glass window at the campaign office of 19th Ward aldermanic candidate Anne Schaible.
Mark Smith, 44, of the 9700 block of South Union Avenue, faces a count of domestic battery and another of simply battery in the altercation, Chicago police officer Mike Sullivan said. The fight took place about 5:30 p.m. at Schaible’s office at 10319 Kedzie Ave. on Monday.
Campaign staffers were organizing an Election day training event when the men crashed through the window, according to Tom Mannix, Schaible’s campaign manager.
Mayoral hopeful Rahm Emanuel’s campaign was surprised when high profile backers of rival Carol Moseley Braun–Rev. Jesse Jackson and Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) showed up a the South Side restaurant where his campaign planned a photo op of him dining with supporters in an African American neighborhood.
Emanuel was dining with a campaign co-chair, Zipporah Hightower and her son, Jack at the Chicago’s Home of Chicken and Waffle at 3747 S. Martin Luther King Dr., not far from Jackson’s Operation PUSH headquarters at 930 E. 50th St.
Jackson was already seated when Emanuel came in and Rush followed a little later. Things got a little raucous. “Everybody for Carol, up on your feet,” Rush called out, with Jackson and chunk of the room standing up as Emanuel munched on his lunch.
“This is a favorite eating place on the South Side,” said Jackson. “He comes as a tourist, we come as residents” (An Emanuel spokesman said he has been to the Chicken and Waffle two or three times.)
Don’t come complaining to me afterward about how the media did this and the media did that, because I’ve been doing this long enough to know the media can’t elect a candidate on its own. You can ask Joe Berrios and Forrest Claypool about that, just to mention a recent example.
And don’t blame it all on the money, because even though money makes a difference, history is replete with the names of political candidates who had lots more money than their opponents and couldn’t get elected because voters weren’t buying what they were selling.
Certain pundits may say otherwise, but Brown is spot on here, especially with the Claypool reference. The Chicago media went all-in for that guy and he got creamed. Their preference for Rahm Emanuel was mostly confined to that ill-advised challenge to his residency. Through it all, the other candidates have done their best to hurt themselves. Carol Moseley Braun and her friends led the pack in that regard, and they continued to do so over the weekend. For instance, check out this new radio ad featuring Congressman Danny Davis…
Script…
VO: Every community has its interest. Congressman Danny K. Davis speaks on why you should vote on February 22nd to protect yours.
Danny Davis: I remember two principles of liberation and self-determination that my parents taught. My mother often told us that it is a poor dog that will not wag its own tail. My father would tell us that the Bible says any man who will not support his own house is worse than any infidel. In honor of my parents during Black History Month, I am voting for Carol Moseley Braun for mayor, and ask that you vote for the best candidate. Punch 3 for Carol Moseley Braun for mayor. This is Congressman Danny Davis.
Infidels, eh? And you thought we should be worried about Egypt. Silly rabbits.
If Carol Moseley Braun doesn’t end up with double digits or a runoff spot in the mayoral race, the loss will confirm something most African Americans in Chicago already know.
African-American leadership in this city is impotent.
A black consensus candidate should have had the support of the influential black movers and shakers in the religious, business, civic, activist, and political arena — not because of black unity, but because of self-interest.
The lackluster support of a candidate that was pushed forward by a coalition of African Americans purporting to represent the black community is shameful because blacks have lost a lot of ground since the city’s first black mayor, Harold Washington, died in office.
Braun was only a “consensus” candidate until she made herself unelectable - which was pretty much right away. As I’ve often written, black voters will vote for black candidates if they see those candidates as viable. Braun proved she wasn’t. That’s not to say she won’t do better than the polls currently have her. I’ve had enough experience to not trust Chicago polls at all. Things happen when the precinct workers kick into gear. Then again, Emanuel could do better than the polling shows. I have no idea.
Anyway, the problem with this consensus candidate process is the same basic dilemma Barack Obama faced in the presidential primaries. The Old School African-American leadership was behind the choice of Braun. Nationally, three years ago, the Old School mostly went with Clinton. The local and national leadership has held power for so long that they no longer fully understand what’s going on at the precinct level. I mean, Carol Moseley Braun? Really? Many of those who remember her don’t care for her. She threw away what should’ve been a long, glorious career in the US Senate, then humiliated herself with a presidential bid of zero consequence. And the young folks don’t even know who she is, and probably don’t care.
Chicago’s black “A” bench is a problem as well. Jesse Jackson, Jr. is horrifically damaged goods. Sen. James Meeks has fundamental problems communicating outside his district and can’t pull the trigger. Pat Horton, running for city clerk, is underwhelming.
There are some up-and-comers, but they have yet to prove themselves outside their wards or districts and the folks at the top are so well-known and entrenched that they have no desire to step aside (Bobby Rush and Danny Davis, to name just two).
A generational change is absolutely needed. Airing reruns of the greatest hits from the 80s and early 90s just doesn’t work.
* Illinois’ Gross State Product is about $630 billion. That means the $8.7 billion Gov. Pat Quinn wants to borrow on the bond markets to pay off old bills is about 1.4 percent of GSP. Injecting that kind of cash into the economy provides a definite boost. It’s not new money, of course, so the boost isn’t as big. But it is money that’s long-owed to vendors, schools, hospitals, nursing homes, human service providers etc. And those past-due bills are a drag on the state’s overall economy. No doubt about it. Just think of all the little local banks that could be lending money for jobs-producing business ventures that instead have been using precious (and still very tight) capital to keep state vendors afloat.
Merriman agreed that Illinois might cut procurement costs by paying its bills and attracting more bidders. He snickered at the idea of payment boosting the economy.
“It strikes me as a very weak argument,” Merriman said.
1.4 percent of GSP is not a “very weak argument” no matter how you slice it. And, more specifically, try telling all the businesses and other vendors who are owed money that the state’s past-due debts to them don’t matter, or haven’t caused hardship. It’s a very real thing to them and to their employees and to their own vendors. These overdue bills have a rippling effect throughout our economy.
The borrowing proposal can surely be scaled back. And I believe it will. But if “state budget specialists” like Merriman and others think the government ought to make cuts to pay off the old bills without going to the bond markets, then they ought to detail how they’d pay for it. Simple as that.
And while I’d personally prefer, as some have suggested, a gradual payoff of the old bills of, say, five years, in combination with a lower bond offer, I understand that a lot more cuts will have to be made before the state is able to do that. Perhaps the state budget experts can show us the way. And I also fully understand that a gradual pay-down will mean stringing out the state’s vendors for another half-decade, which is not going to be a pleasant thing to do.
I’ve always held Merriman in pretty high regard. I don’t understand why he completely brushed off the impact of this proposal, however.
“While I am all for paying our providers in a timely manner, $8.75 billion is an excessive amount of money to borrow and it will cost taxpayers another $3 billion in interest to repay,” [GOP state Rep. Mike Bost] explained. “Limited borrowing may make sense, but his plan simply backloads the debt. The bulk of the money will be due just as the Democrats’ tax increase is set to expire. This is their way of ensuring that the tax increase will become permanent.”
Bost is right that the repayments are backloaded. There’s a ramp. It starts at $100 million, and then rises to $765 million by Fiscal Year 2016. But, half a point of the income tax hike is dedicated to the bond repayment, and that won’t expire until the bond is paid off. That half a point is more than enough to make the payments.
* And, no offense, but I’d like to see his alternative…
“I came away from the Governor’s speech thinking there had to be more to the budget proposal. The Governor’s plan is based on an additional $9 billion in borrowing,” [GOP state Sen. Dave Luechtefeld] said. “I know we have severe problems in the state, but the Governor needs to be serious about cutting our state’s budget. These are tough times, but a tax increase alone will not get the job done.”
He’s absolutely correct that a tax hike alone won’t get the job done. And as I wrote elsewhere today, I think Quinn made a big mistake with his budget proposal. But is Sen Luechtefeld ready to cut SIU-Carbondale’s budget to help out?
* This press release by Democratic Sen. Gary Forby deserves the same treatment…
The bottom line is that we must continue to look at responsible places to cut spending and pay our bills before we can spend any more.
OK, great. Start listing stuff in your district that you’d be willing to give up, Senator.
* Related…
* Decline in bond market has states nervous: All told, more than $178 billion of the bonds were sold, according to Bloomberg. The states and local governments in four states — California, Illinois, New York and Texas — accounted for nearly half of the bond sales. But as states and localities rushed to sell them before the December 2010 deadline, there was a glut in the bond market, depressing demand for traditional types of municipal bonds.
The extension of the Bush-era tax cuts last year may also have played a role in the declining popularity of municipal debt. With less income subject to taxation, the tax-free aspect of government bonds holds less allure.
Child care advocates thought they had avoided $400 million in threatened cuts to the state’s child care services budget after speaking with top officials in Gov. Pat Quinn’s office earlier this month. And the governor’s budget office then told a Senate appropriations committee that no such cuts were being planned.
But when Quinn unveiled his budget for next fiscal year last week, he listed a $350 million net cut in child care spending, according to House Democrats’ analysis of the proposal.
The child care folks aren’t the only ones who may be feeling double-crossed by Quinn’s new budget plan. Aid to the aged, blind and disabled is decreased by $15 million; mental health centers will see a $33 million reduction. The auditor general will take a $471,000 hit by reducing headcount and by cutting back the number of audits his office will perform.
Legislators also are not happy for many reasons, not the least being that Quinn waited until after his speech to sign legislation that would have made his spending plan illegal had he signed it before his budget address.
The bipartisan legislation requires the governor to use only revenues that are legally available to him at the time he introduces his budget. Since he didn’t sign it earlier, he wasn’t bound by it.
However, House Democrats say they expected Quinn to abide by it anyway, whether he signed the bill or not.
And according to House Democrats, Quinn’s budget uses about $730 million in revenues that would have been prohibited by their bill. Quinn unilaterally lowered the percentage of tax dollars earmarked for the corporate tax refund fund and decoupled the state from a federal tax depreciation law. Neither of those things have been approved by the Legislature.
There appears to be another $700 million or so in unapproved revenues in the budget, according to Senate President John Cullerton and the Senate Republicans. That cash appears to be coming from the governor’s proposed $8.9 billion borrowing plan, which also has not yet been approved by the General Assembly.
So, while Quinn says he made cuts of $1 billion and his total spending is $1.4 billion beneath the new annual spending caps that were put into the tax hike bill, his budget still is around $1.45 billion out of whack, unless and until the General Assembly approves those new revenue streams.
Cullerton canceled his traditional, post-budget-address media availability last week, claiming he had too many unanswered questions about the governor’s proposal to talk to reporters. Cullerton then urged the governor to provide more details.
And House Speaker Michael Madigan seemed determined last week to force the governor to abide by the new fiscal responsibility agenda that Madigan has been touting. Madigan said any new revenues ought to be used to pay down old bills, rather than fund new initiatives.
In other words, we probably can expect more cuts. Budget addresses are the starting point in the game of “Statehouse Give and Take.”
But here’s the problem: What the heck do many of Quinn’s allies have to gain from working to pass this thing? If Quinn had introduced a more honest budget that didn’t include the borrowing plan and the other phantom revenues, he could have gone to all the unhappy groups and said, “You need to help me pass those new revenue streams and then I can try to restore your budgets.”
Instead, human service groups and their legislative allies are furious at the outsized cuts aimed at them. Hospitals and nursing homes are up in arms over Quinn’s Medicaid reimbursement rate slashes. School districts are freaking out about a huge cut to their transportation budgets. So, why would they help convince the General Assembly to approve all that new money if they already knew the governor wants to cut them no matter what?
You’d think that would be an odd way of doing business.
Then again, public employee unions weren’t touched. Money for the state’s school fund actually will increase, even though transportation and other items were cut. Quinn also wants to add 950 new state employees. The unions representing those workers have been under fire in Springfield, even by Democrats, but they backed Quinn to the hilt last year, and he’s now protecting them.
That appears to be the bottom line.
* Here’s a roundup of some of what happened late Friday to this fiscal year’s budget. Subscribers know more. There was more to it than substance abuse cuts, but those groups were the best at getting the word out…
* Dramatic Cuts for Drug and Alcohol Treatment: The Illinois Alcoholism and Drug Dependence Association predicted that out of 69,000 drug and alcohol treatment clients, 55,000 will be released; more than 5,000 people are expected to be laid off.
* Quinn speeds up social service budget cuts: Sara Howe, who heads the Illinois Alcoholism and Drug Dependence Association, said she spoke with Illinois Department of Human Services Secretary Michelle Saddler this morning and confirmed with another official this afternoon that the cuts are “for real.” “We’ve seen it pretty bad. There were times we didn’t think it could get much worse. But today we’ve hit rock bottom,” said Howe. Many of the 50 private groups in her association stopped taking more patients Friday, she said.
* Substance abuse treatment groups brace for state cut news: “In our system, most of the clients — up to 80 percent — don’t qualify for Medicaid,” Moscato Howe said. “So when they say the system becomes Medicaid-only, it kills the system.”
