There’s pretty much no doubt that Illinois will be the focal point of national efforts by Democrats to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The new map of Illinois congressional districts puts five traditionally Republican-held congressional districts into play for the first time in a decade.
But if Democrats are going to make those gains, they will need help from the Illinois Democratic Party –and that is where things get sticky. In the 1980s, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, the state party’s chairman, began focusing that apparatus on raising cash to elect members of the Illinois House; not members of Congress. Today, that’s the party’s sole mission.
Political insiders have begun raising questions about the state party now that the remap is a done deal. Why? Because a better focused party may have made the difference in two recent unsuccessful, but close, races for Congress: Tammy Duckworth in the 6th Congressional District in 2006 and Lauren Beth Gash in the 10th Congressional District in 2000.
The answer to their original question is “Probably not.” Madigan does what he does and leaves the rest up to others.
* Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics’ Senior Elections Analyst doesn’t quite get an important aspect of how the new congressional districts were drawn. Democratic mapmakers factored in John Kerry’s 2004 presidential race as well as the 2006 gubernatorial contest when drawing up their maps. Looking at just the two landslide years of 2008 (Democratic) and 2010 (Republican) doesn’t give us enough data to make a solid judgement on their mapmaking abilities. And from what the Democrats are saying, some suburban districts are gradually shifting more Democratic over the years, mainly because of Latino migration. That is evidenced, they say, by comparing Bush ‘04 with Brady ‘10. Also, nowhere mentioned in the analysis is the statewide third party performance last year, which contributed to some of the lower Democratic numbers….
8th District (POTUS: 62 percent Dem) (Gov: 48 percent Dem) (Sen: 46 percent Dem) (Treas: 42 percent Dem). Joe Walsh, a political unknown who narrowly defeated Democrat Melissa Bean in 2010, no longer resides in this district, and about two-thirds of his old district has been moved to the 6th. Obama’s vote share increased from 56 percent to 62 percent, a substantial improvement. Overall, this is a pretty Democratic district, but remember that Republicans were able to hold the neighboring 10th in 2010, which gave Obama 61 percent of the vote. In addition, the Democratic ticket had some problems here in 2010. In a good enough Republican year, or if the suburbs swing back toward Republicans, a Republican would be competitive.
10th District (POTUS: 64 percent Dem) (Gov: 50.4 percent Dem) (Sen: 44 percent Dem) (Treas: 44 percent Dem). Bob Dold is probably going to see his congressional career cut short. The partisan makeup of this Northern Chicago district didn’t change that much, but the Democrats in his district now tend to be more reliable Democratic voters. Still, Alex Giannoulias ran poorly for the Senate here (in part because Mark Kirk represented much of this area), while Pat Quinn barely won. It would take a good GOP year and probably a general movement of the suburbs back toward Republicans, but a Republican candidate could win here.
11th District (POTUS: 62 percent Dem) (Gov: 49 percent Dem) (Sen: 48 percent Dem) (Treas: 45 percent Dem). Current 11th District Congressman Adam Kinzinger now resides in Jesse Jackson Jr.’s district. This Southwestern Chicago district is actually more of a new district, drawing about half of its voters from the old 13th District (the district that was technically eliminated), and a quarter each from old 11th and 14th. Once again, this will tend to elect a Democrat in most years, but the 2010 Democratic ticket’s performance was underwhelming. In a good GOP year, the Republicans should be competitive and, once again, if the suburbs shift a bit toward the Republicans in the next decade, the Democrats would find this a 50-50 district.
12th District (POTUS: 56 percent Dem) (Gov: 47 percent Dem) (Sen: 48 percent Dem) (Treas: 48 percent Dem). Jerry Costello will probably keep this Southwest Illinois district for as long as he wants it (although an obscure opponent held him below 60 percent in 2010). But at age 61, it is far from certain that his career will span this entire decade. Should the seat open up, it would be a competitive district.
13th District (POTUS: 56 percent Dem) (Gov: 40 percent Dem) (Sen: 41 percent Dem) (Treas: 40 percent Dem). Since the old 13th was technically eliminated, this is really John Shimkus’ renumbered 19th. But Shimkus will see a lot of new voters; only about 30 percent of his old constituents live in this district. Still, aside from Barack Obama, the Democratic ticket fared poorly here in 2010, and in all but the best Democratic years, the seat should still elect a Republican.
17th District (POTUS: 61 percent Dem) (Gov: 42 percent Dem) (Sen: 42 percent Dem) (Treas: 45 percent Dem). This is probably the biggest head-scratcher of the bunch, and it may be that some incomplete data are making the 2010 Democratic performance look weaker than it really was. Freshman GOP Rep Bobby Schilling’s district has been made much more compact. It’s also been made more Democratic; Obama’s vote share here was improved by about four points. But Obama ran unusually well in the northwest portion of the state, which is traditionally a GOP stronghold. As you see, the rest of the Democratic ticket apparently had a terrible showing here in 2010. To be sure, a Democrat can win this district, and Schilling, who came to Congress with little experience, could have a rough time in 2012 with Obama atop the ticket. But a GOP candidate could win here as well; the district is probably more of a tossup in a “normal” year.
* There’s no question that the Democrats did horribly Downstate last year. There’s also little doubt that Obama won’t do as well in the Metro East as he did in 2008. So, the Republicans may be simply attempting to gin up a little negative chatter with a low-cost Web video…
Costelllo is hit on Medicare–in a web ad that basically says he did not support a GOP Medicare overhaul plan. It’s a bit of table turning; Democrats are going after Republicans–(re the Democratic recent win in a New York House race) over the Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) Medicare proposal.
A GOP source told me they National Republican Congressional Committee did the spot because they think Costello left himself weaker in the new district he drew for himself to run from in 2012. Illinois Republicans asked Gov. Pat Quinn not to sign the map and signaled they will fight the Democratic plan in federal court.
* ’Burbs flex muscle in new congressional map: The new 8th Congressional District, drawn without any incumbent, creates an open seat that’s already attracted interest from two Democrats, both of Hoffman Estates — former state comptroller candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi and Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, who lost to Roskam in 2006. The circular shaped district, which Roskam’s new Pac-Man shaped district is seemingly eating, contains some of the most independent voting portions of Northwest Cook and DuPage County — Addison, Hanover and Elk Grove townships, and parts of Wheeling Township.
* Representing the 17th District - Today a long time Quad Cities politician Mike Boland came to Rockford to express his interest in representing the 17th district.
* HERITAGE: ACTION — Heritage Action says it ’s spending $300,000 in 11 congressional districts thanking them for “an unflinching commitment to conservative principles on issues both large and small; including an adult-like and essential reform of Medicare.” They’re calling the lawmakers the Magnificent 11: Republican Reps. Justin Amash (Mich.), Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Dan Benishek (Mich.), Tim Walberg (Mich.), Steve Chabot (Ohio), Steve King (Iowa), Mick Mulvaney (S.C.), Steve Pearce (N.M.), Steve Southerland (Fla.), Joe Walsh (Ill.) and Alan West (Fla.). Just King was part of the 111th Congress. Pearce, Walberg and Chabot served in previous congresses.
Ronald Reagan’s question for Jimmy Carter, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago,” will be the issue of 2012, with the corollary, “He made it worse.” If Obama can get good employment and economic numbers in time for the election, State Democrats will do fine. If the Republicans can stick it to Obama on the economy, the new remap may not be as good as Democrats think. If Republicans can do better than expected in Illinois, any lack of losses or gains may stick for a while since incumbency is a powerful influence in elections.
At the state level, I would expect that Democrats will increase their GA margins, but less than expected. Even in Illinois, Obama will not be the positive influence many Democrats hope for, if his nationwide numbers are flagging.
The IL GOP is headed for a huge disaster next year and no one in charge seems to have the first clue what to do about it. (Frivolous litigation to try and raise money from rubes isn’t a plan.)
“..what can the IL GOP do? they missed their chance when Brady lost to Quinn - not sure what they can do?”
Robert, you hit the nail on the head. The IL GOP is still controlled by old relics who have no clue how to build or message without the crutch (and stick) of all those state patronage jobs.
Rich Evans formed an exploratory committee, to run for Congress, in the 8th District. He’s a conservative activist who worked for Eric Wallace, Jim Oberweis, and David McSweeney. Rich lived in the district (in Villa Park) for nine years.
The outlying numbers in the 17th CD for 2006 and 2008 are deceptive. In 2006, Blago and Alexi did very well in the Quad Cities and Phil Hare had underwhelming opposition. In 2008, Phil Hare had only token opposition and Obama did well in that district because, well, he did well in most state Congressional Districts and he didn’t have anyone like Bobby Schilling going after him in the Quad Cities. Yes, the new district encompasses Pekin and the west area of Rockford, but Pekin is trending more and more Republican and the continuously high unemployment in Rockford may make voters think twice about voting for Obama again.
Rich Evans worked for Oberweis and that is somehow a positive. Got to love the IL GOP
- Lakefront Liberal - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 10:50 am:
Rich, you are right that it is unlikely Madigan will change at this point and start having the state Dem party do something about Congressionals. What might happen — what I hope will happen — is that an independent, parallel orgnaization is created that will take on this function and might provide some sorely needed training/support/experience for the next generation of Dem political leaders.
I think there’s a very good chance democrats will look back 6-8 years from now and say we made some serious mistakes. A constant theme of american politics the last 5 years has been major volatility. There are dozens of senators and hundreds of congressmen and districts that were supposedly “safe” where because of how bad one party had handled an issue and how bad the mood of the country was, previously safe incumbents like costello have found themselves out of work.
There are plenty of attacks to make on Jerry Costello-I’ve made many of them. Choosing the issue on which he shares with a large majority of his constituents is a bit strange.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 11:43 am:
Going after Costello is a pipe dream.
The 2010 and 2006 numbers are largely irrelevant for redistricting purposes.
Turnout of voters under 30 DOUBLES during a Presidential Election year in Illinois.
Democrats should hope, or atleast expect, that seats gained in 2012 can be held in 2014 when they’ll enjoy incumbency.
BTW, 548 did a great piece on why unemployment rate is not a predictor of electoral success.
Its also important to remember that Obama won’t be running against the economy, but an actual candidate, who will have their own ’splainin to do.
I’d be pretty shocked if the party faithful came out for Romney, and even more surprised if suburbanites voted for Palin or Bachmann.
Republicans just don’t get it. A growth agenda (and its cousins spending and debt) is what will get Republicans elected, everything else is secondary in this cycle.
GOPers are going after Costello on Medicare? Really?
That’s beyond bizarre.
Just a little observation on human nature: people, generally, want to live forever. Telling them that they won’t have the access to health care to do so is not exactly in the Dale Carnegie game plan.
Cincy-that, ahem, GOP “growth” agenda (ending Medicare) really did you wonders in that NY-26 special election!
Leaving the economics of that decision to the side, politically the Republicons have hamstrung themselves with supporting a plan that has viritually no support except among the loony tea fringe of the GOP. Sadly for them, the loony tea fringe is running said party now.
and, and as for the Dem Party of Illinois, that is what a state party is for. To solidify state positions, esp. the legislature that votes on the laws. These leftys that want DPI to take more of a role in Congressional races are missing that point. That is what the DCCC is for-to elect Democrats to Congress.
It will be interesting to see what, if any, Obama’s coattails are in 2012.
On the negative side, the economy still stinks and his job approval isn’t in a safe zone.
Looking for silver linings, the latest Pew poll provides some interesting stats. In a reelection match-up, Obama arguably “polls above his job approval.” Put it this way: in 2003, Bush’s job approval was 72%. And 48% of the public said they wanted to see him reelected, and 34% said they would prefer a Democrat to win. In 2011, Obama’s job approval is hovering around 50. And about 48% of the public says they would reelect him, and 37% want to see a Republican win.
I’m not sure what to make of that yet … but I suspect, Obama remains more popular personally than -either- of the parties, and especially more popular than the Republicans. So we might see an unusual amount of divergence, between support for Obama and support / opposition for candidates down the ballot.
Current polling shows that among all voters, Romney ties Obama, and beats him among registered voters. These numbers will only shrink (to the detriment of Obama) if the economy stays weak.
just sayin’ - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 9:54 am:
“..what can the IL GOP do? they missed their chance when Brady lost to Quinn - not sure what they can do?”
“Robert, you hit the nail on the head. The IL GOP is still controlled by old relics who have no clue how to build or message without the crutch (and stick) of all those state patronage jobs.”
- Walter Mitty - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 12:46 pm:
YDD and wordslinger=1000% correct.
Cincy-that, ahem, GOP “growth” agenda (ending Medicare) really did you wonders in that NY-26 special election!
“Leaving the economics of that decision to the side, politically the Republicons have hamstrung themselves with supporting a plan that has viritually no support except among the loony tea fringe of the GOP. Sadly for them, the loony tea fringe is running said party now.”
Which is it, boys. I do love it when non-Republicans try to describe Republican motivations…
Let’s try to stay out of a lengthy debate on presidential politics, please. Keep it Illinois-focused. I don’t particularly care what Romney does in other states. It’s what he might do in Illinois that truly matters here.
For what it’s worth, I’d agree with Cincy that of this field, Romney would be the best person to have at the top of the ticket for the GOP, here in Illinois. But it’s more about minimizing the losses, a la YDD’s comments. I don’t see a passionate uprising for Romney in the cards.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 9:19 am:
Ronald Reagan’s question for Jimmy Carter, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago,” will be the issue of 2012, with the corollary, “He made it worse.” If Obama can get good employment and economic numbers in time for the election, State Democrats will do fine. If the Republicans can stick it to Obama on the economy, the new remap may not be as good as Democrats think. If Republicans can do better than expected in Illinois, any lack of losses or gains may stick for a while since incumbency is a powerful influence in elections.
At the state level, I would expect that Democrats will increase their GA margins, but less than expected. Even in Illinois, Obama will not be the positive influence many Democrats hope for, if his nationwide numbers are flagging.
- just sayin' - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 9:22 am:
The IL GOP is headed for a huge disaster next year and no one in charge seems to have the first clue what to do about it. (Frivolous litigation to try and raise money from rubes isn’t a plan.)
- Robert - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 9:39 am:
@just sayin’ - what can the IL GOP do? they missed their chance when Brady lost to Quinn - not sure what they can do?
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 9:46 am:
What the ILGOP can do, Robert, is field excellent candidates, outreach for local support, run hard and hope Obama implodes. Alas…
- just sayin' - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 9:54 am:
“..what can the IL GOP do? they missed their chance when Brady lost to Quinn - not sure what they can do?”
Robert, you hit the nail on the head. The IL GOP is still controlled by old relics who have no clue how to build or message without the crutch (and stick) of all those state patronage jobs.
- Conservative Veteran - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 10:00 am:
Rich Evans formed an exploratory committee, to run for Congress, in the 8th District. He’s a conservative activist who worked for Eric Wallace, Jim Oberweis, and David McSweeney. Rich lived in the district (in Villa Park) for nine years.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 10:08 am:
The outlying numbers in the 17th CD for 2006 and 2008 are deceptive. In 2006, Blago and Alexi did very well in the Quad Cities and Phil Hare had underwhelming opposition. In 2008, Phil Hare had only token opposition and Obama did well in that district because, well, he did well in most state Congressional Districts and he didn’t have anyone like Bobby Schilling going after him in the Quad Cities. Yes, the new district encompasses Pekin and the west area of Rockford, but Pekin is trending more and more Republican and the continuously high unemployment in Rockford may make voters think twice about voting for Obama again.
And going after Jerry Costello is a pipe dream.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 10:12 am:
Rich Evans worked for Oberweis and that is somehow a positive. Got to love the IL GOP
- Lakefront Liberal - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 10:50 am:
Rich, you are right that it is unlikely Madigan will change at this point and start having the state Dem party do something about Congressionals. What might happen — what I hope will happen — is that an independent, parallel orgnaization is created that will take on this function and might provide some sorely needed training/support/experience for the next generation of Dem political leaders.
- Shore - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 10:53 am:
I think there’s a very good chance democrats will look back 6-8 years from now and say we made some serious mistakes. A constant theme of american politics the last 5 years has been major volatility. There are dozens of senators and hundreds of congressmen and districts that were supposedly “safe” where because of how bad one party had handled an issue and how bad the mood of the country was, previously safe incumbents like costello have found themselves out of work.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 11:12 am:
Republicans want to make the election about Medicare? Really?
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 11:33 am:
There are plenty of attacks to make on Jerry Costello-I’ve made many of them. Choosing the issue on which he shares with a large majority of his constituents is a bit strange.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 11:43 am:
Going after Costello is a pipe dream.
The 2010 and 2006 numbers are largely irrelevant for redistricting purposes.
Turnout of voters under 30 DOUBLES during a Presidential Election year in Illinois.
Democrats should hope, or atleast expect, that seats gained in 2012 can be held in 2014 when they’ll enjoy incumbency.
BTW, 548 did a great piece on why unemployment rate is not a predictor of electoral success.
Its also important to remember that Obama won’t be running against the economy, but an actual candidate, who will have their own ’splainin to do.
I’d be pretty shocked if the party faithful came out for Romney, and even more surprised if suburbanites voted for Palin or Bachmann.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 11:45 am:
jobs, Jobs, JObs, JOBs JOBS!!!!
Republicans just don’t get it. A growth agenda (and its cousins spending and debt) is what will get Republicans elected, everything else is secondary in this cycle.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 12:00 pm:
GOPers are going after Costello on Medicare? Really?
That’s beyond bizarre.
Just a little observation on human nature: people, generally, want to live forever. Telling them that they won’t have the access to health care to do so is not exactly in the Dale Carnegie game plan.
- Walter Mitty - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 12:46 pm:
YDD and wordslinger=1000% correct.
Cincy-that, ahem, GOP “growth” agenda (ending Medicare) really did you wonders in that NY-26 special election!
Leaving the economics of that decision to the side, politically the Republicons have hamstrung themselves with supporting a plan that has viritually no support except among the loony tea fringe of the GOP. Sadly for them, the loony tea fringe is running said party now.
- Walter Mitty - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 12:48 pm:
and, and as for the Dem Party of Illinois, that is what a state party is for. To solidify state positions, esp. the legislature that votes on the laws. These leftys that want DPI to take more of a role in Congressional races are missing that point. That is what the DCCC is for-to elect Democrats to Congress.
- ZC - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 12:53 pm:
It will be interesting to see what, if any, Obama’s coattails are in 2012.
On the negative side, the economy still stinks and his job approval isn’t in a safe zone.
Looking for silver linings, the latest Pew poll provides some interesting stats. In a reelection match-up, Obama arguably “polls above his job approval.” Put it this way: in 2003, Bush’s job approval was 72%. And 48% of the public said they wanted to see him reelected, and 34% said they would prefer a Democrat to win. In 2011, Obama’s job approval is hovering around 50. And about 48% of the public says they would reelect him, and 37% want to see a Republican win.
I’m not sure what to make of that yet … but I suspect, Obama remains more popular personally than -either- of the parties, and especially more popular than the Republicans. So we might see an unusual amount of divergence, between support for Obama and support / opposition for candidates down the ballot.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 1:22 pm:
ZC,
Current polling shows that among all voters, Romney ties Obama, and beats him among registered voters. These numbers will only shrink (to the detriment of Obama) if the economy stays weak.
just sayin’ - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 9:54 am:
“..what can the IL GOP do? they missed their chance when Brady lost to Quinn - not sure what they can do?”
“Robert, you hit the nail on the head. The IL GOP is still controlled by old relics who have no clue how to build or message without the crutch (and stick) of all those state patronage jobs.”
- Walter Mitty - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 12:46 pm:
YDD and wordslinger=1000% correct.
Cincy-that, ahem, GOP “growth” agenda (ending Medicare) really did you wonders in that NY-26 special election!
“Leaving the economics of that decision to the side, politically the Republicons have hamstrung themselves with supporting a plan that has viritually no support except among the loony tea fringe of the GOP. Sadly for them, the loony tea fringe is running said party now.”
Which is it, boys. I do love it when non-Republicans try to describe Republican motivations…
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 1:25 pm:
Let’s try to stay out of a lengthy debate on presidential politics, please. Keep it Illinois-focused. I don’t particularly care what Romney does in other states. It’s what he might do in Illinois that truly matters here.
- Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 1:39 pm:
Agreed, Rich. I was only reinforcing the point I made earlier that the effect of Obama in 2008 may differ significantly from his effects in 2012.
- ZC - Tuesday, Jun 7, 11 @ 4:06 pm:
For what it’s worth, I’d agree with Cincy that of this field, Romney would be the best person to have at the top of the ticket for the GOP, here in Illinois. But it’s more about minimizing the losses, a la YDD’s comments. I don’t see a passionate uprising for Romney in the cards.