Abundant speculation
Tuesday, Sep 27, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller
* TickleTheWire.com talked to some folks about what they expect to see out of Rod Blagojevich’s sentence…
“I’m just giving voice to what’s generally been a consensus in the community,” said Rodger Heaton, a former U.S. Attorney for Central Illinois and currently with the law firm Hinshaw & Culbertson, “but I’ve been hearing a projected estimate of eight to fifteen years. Some people have also said ten or 11.” […]
“My guess is ten to 15 years,” [said Dick Simpson, a professor of political science at the University of Illinois-Chicago] in a phone interview. “You have to look at other similar cases, and in particular I’m looking at former Governor George Ryan.” Ryan, the Illinois governor immediately preceding Blagojevich, is serving a six-and-a-half-year sentence after being convicted on federal corruption charges in 2006, though sentencing guidelines counseled for more.
* But this Madoff angle is something I’ve been considering for several weeks…
Unlike many defendants, Rod Blagojevich testified at his own trial the second time around. And because the jury, in convicting him, rejected his testimony, he in effect lied under oath. He was convicted of violating the public trust, a sad theme that has played out in Illinois’ politics for decades.
All of these factors were cited by Jami Floyd in predicting a sentence of 20 to 25 years. Floyd is a long-time legal correspondent for national news outlets. She got her law degree from the Boalt Hall School of Law at the University of California, Berkeley, and served as a law clerk at the California Supreme Court and had her own civil and criminal law practice.
“For me, the Madoff case is most instructive,” said Floyd. She had predicted back then that Madoff would get a long sentence, even life, while many others were predicting much lower sentences. Madoff, now 73, didn’t put up much of a legal fight and pleaded guilty in 2009. He ended up getting a whopping 150 years in prison, which will undoubtedly keep him behind bars for the rest of his life. [Emphasis added.]
* For those wondering when Blagojevich will be sentenced, here’s a little history of the length between guilty verdicts and sentencing dates compiled by the Tribune…
Scott Fawell: 103 days. Gov. George Ryan’s chief of staff was convicted in 2003 of racketeering and fraud for a wide-ranging corruption scheme that diverted government resources for political gain. He served 41/2 years at a South Dakota prison camp.
Betty Loren-Maltese: 139 days. The former Cicero town president was sentenced to a little more than eight years for stealing more than $12 million in an insurance scam. She served seven years.
George Ryan: 142 days. The former governor was found guilty in 2006 of more than a dozen felony charges, including racketeering, tax and mail fraud and lying to the FBI. He is in prison.
It’s been 92 days since Blagojevich was convicted.
* And is there a connection to the Cellini trial?…
Former Governor Rod Blagojevich’s sentencing is being pushed back but does that mean he’s looking to strike a deal with prosecutors in the Bill Cellini trial? Some believe that’s the former governor’s plan but Political Scientist Kent Redfield says he doesn’t think so.
He agrees that people often cooperate with federal prosecutors in order to get a lighter sentence but he says Blagojevich’s perjury conviction compromises the integrity of his testimony.
His perjury conviction is one factor, and the fact that he testified on his own behalf and was almost completely disbelieved by the jury is another.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 12:38 pm:
Blago was the big fish. I think they tried Cellini last not to flip Blago, but because they didn’t want the chance of an acquittal of Cellini to poison the potential jury pool.
- GMatts - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 12:45 pm:
No doubt Blago was sure he could charm the jury into freeing him by taking the stand. He apparently charmed them into an additional 10 years or so..
- Publius - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 12:50 pm:
Give him 15 years and lets move away from him and his nonsense. Every time he opens his mouth we seem to go in a deeper hole. He testified in his own defense and it failed miserably. I only feel sorry for his daughters but he created a mess and damaged this state. Time to move on
- shore - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 12:59 pm:
I’ve never heard of that website, but that’s a really thorough piece. 20-25 years would be the exclamation point this thing deserves.
- Ahoy - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 1:03 pm:
I would if Blagojevich testifying against Cellini would actually help Cellini’s case. I’m not saying Blagojevich is a liar or that nobody trusts him, but whatever he says; you kind of assume the opposite is true.
- Shore - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 1:09 pm:
The photo editor is also brilliant-a picture of blago next to a guy with the name SINBAD.
- Anonymour - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 1:18 pm:
Comparing Blago to Madoff is just silly. The federal sentencing guidelines for white collar crimes are driven in part by the “loss amount.” The loss amount for Madoff, according to the presentence report, started at $13 billion, not counting everything. The “loss amount” for Blago is, relatively, peanuts.
There will likely be a perjury tax, for taking the stand and lying. Judge Zagel will likely give Blago a longer sentence than Ryan. But it ain’t going to approach Madoff territory. My guess is 7-10 years.
- just sayin' - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 1:36 pm:
Twelve (12), a nice even dozen for Elvis.
- Jim - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 1:46 pm:
Blago’s usefulness as a witness would depend on the extent to which whatever he said could be independently corroborated.
Blago could be useful to the feds if he ratted out everybody about everything. as far as being a witness, however, he is severely compromised and nothing he says would be worthy of belief on its own. I’m betting around 10 years. A sentence of 20 to 25 would be a real eye-opener for corrupt pols, a real departure from past practice. Of course, it also would be very much deserved.
Here’s another question — what about all the other blago-related investigations?
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 2:02 pm:
I said it before and I’ll type it again: the Blago-Madoff comparison is not that far-fetched when we consider the amount of trust each person was given and how each person violated that trust. And Blago was elected Governor of Illinois twice - he was the highest-level statewide official when he committed these infractions. My guess is that he gets about 15-20 years.
- Leave a Light on George - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 2:03 pm:
@ Word
You feeling okay today buddy? I’m worried. You haven’t used this thread to hate on the federal prosecutor.
- Colossus - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 2:47 pm:
@ Ahoy - it seems like that’s exactly what you’re saying. I’m not arguing with you, and I doubt anyone here would. It’s ok to say the emperor has no clothes.
- Retired Non-Union Guy - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 3:38 pm:
Can we sentence him to jail until the Illinois budget no longer runs an annual deficit? Or would that be considered excessive?
- D.P. Gumby - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 5:25 pm:
As I’ve said before, we Americans are grossly addicted to prisons. We have more people in prison than any other western democracy. Sending Blago (an George) to prison for 20-25 years is just absurdly stupid; 10 years is absurd; even 5 years is silly. He is no threat to society and any prison time is sufficient to make the point of his criminal conduct (which is still hazy given the “crime” he was charged w/). Prison just makes him more of a victim. Putting him to work for community service for a long time and weekend lock-up would be more appropriate and disruptive to him than Camp Fed. The only reason these absurdly long sentences are even being discussed is because of the ridiculous mandatory/minimums and war on drug sentences that are still plaguing the criminal justice system. End of Rant.
- Emily Booth - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 8:15 pm:
Blagoyevich ruined state government. He cost the taxpayers millions. We’re still paying the price for his egregious ways.
- Publius - Tuesday, Sep 27, 11 @ 8:51 pm:
What ever happened to Bill? I’m sure he would have an insight as to the sentencing
- Louis Howe - Wednesday, Sep 28, 11 @ 9:15 am:
Blago was more goof than goon. Eight-to-Ten years seems a reasonable punishment. Actually, there is no sentencing capable of extinguishing political opportunism. Stupidity reigns supreme because nobody ever thinks they’re the ones to get caught.