* The FBI specifically warns against using its crime stats to make up silly rankings. From the agency’s website…
Each year when Crime in the United States is published, many entities—news media, tourism agencies, and other groups with an interest in crime in our Nation—use reported figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rankings, however, are merely a quick choice made by the data user; they provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region, or other jurisdiction. Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents. […]
For example, one city may report more crime than a comparable one, not because there is more crime, but rather because its law enforcement agency, through proactive efforts, identifies more offenses. Attitudes of the citizens toward crime and their crime reporting practices, especially concerning minor offenses, also have an impact on the volume of crimes known to police.
* There are other factors that play into this as well. Chicago isn’t ranked at all for violent crimes because of the way it collects data on forcible rape…
The data collection methodology for the offense of forcible rape used by Chicago, Illinois, does not comply with national Uniform Crime Reporting Program guidelines. Consequently, its figures for forcible rape and violent crime (of which forcible rape is a part) are not published in this table.
* But, sure enough, Forbes went ahead and did it anyway and ranked Springfield, IL as the third most violent city in the nation, after Detroit and Memphis…
The Springfield, Ill., metropolitan area ranks third on our list with 855 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2010. The Illinois state capital confounds analysts who try to interpret its relatively high crime rate. The unemployment rate was lower than the national average at 7% as of July so the economy wouldn’t seem to play a major role in crime. The area’s relatively young population – 66% of the city is under the age of 44 – may be a factor, as younger areas generally have higher rates of crime.
* Forbes used the FBI’s metropolitan statistical area breakdowns for its study. I went through the FBI’s list of crimes by Illinois cities and pulled out the worst of the bunch…
* But, of course, since there’s a ranking available by a national media outlet, we’re seeing lots of local coverage here…
* Springfield Is Third Most Violent City In America
* Forbes: Springfield 3rd most dangerous metro area in U.S.
* Springfield ranked country’s 3rd most dangerous city
* Rockford #10 on Forbes crime list — Springfield #3
* St. Louis Not On A ‘Most Dangerous Cities’ List
* Local officials did their best to convince people that Forbes relied on faulty data…
Springfield Police Chief Robert Williams and Mayor Mike Houston expressed disbelief Tuesday at statistics that suggest greater Springfield is the third most-violent metropolitan area in the U.S. – behind only Detroit and Memphis. […]
Williams suggested the city’s ranking is due to Springfield being scrupulous about reporting crimes.
“I don’t want to point fingers at anyone else,” Williams said. “But I’ll tell you that we have a very strict interpretation as to how we report our crimes.
“We continue each year to compare apples to apples, and we see a downward trend,” he said. “I respectfully dispute those statistics, as well as the methodology.”
* And the SJ-R editorial page rightly pointed to the FBI cautions above and expressed its own skepticism…
Unfortunately for Springfield, these lists have a way of taking on eternal life. Rockford, for all its image-building effort, will forever be dogged by finishing dead last — No. 300 — in Money magazine’s “most livable cities” lists in 1993 and 1996. (Rockford was rated the 10th most dangerous city in this week’s Forbes list.)
Again, we’re not in denial that Springfield should strive to be a safer place with less violent crime.
But Springfield as the third most dangerous city in America? Figuratively speaking, those are fighting words.
Thoughts?
- Dave Dahl - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:05 am:
Americans love lists.
- Newsclown - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:12 am:
The Forbes writer and editor are idiots, or there’s another agenda being served here, a political one.
Or both. Who would benefit from Springfield and Illinois getting downgraded on some quality of life statistic?
- Seriously??? - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:15 am:
An interesting article on the FBI’s definition on forcible rape and the need to change it:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/29/u
s/federal-rules-on-rape-statistic
s-criticized.html?_r=3&pagewante
d=all%3Fsrc%3Dtp&smid=fb-share
- Bitterman - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:17 am:
Ignoring the FBI, the statistical source for the data, shows a lack of interity. They must want the attention this provides, controversary drives sales I suppose.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:17 am:
Brainless, ignorant journalism at its finest.
Springfield has its rough spots, but only the nerviest of nellies would consider it one of the most dangerous places in America.
The most dangerous thing about Springfield is downing a beef horseshoe and a couple of Buds after 10 p.m.
Wouldn’t you think that you would actually have to visit a town before you labeled it dangerous?
Of course, if you work for Forbes, anyplace outside of Park Avenue and The Hamptons probably appears dangerous.
I suggest the Forbes writers pass on Springfield and vacation in the nearby safety of Camden, Newark, Hoboken, Bed-Stuy, the South Bronx and Bridgeport, Conn. Then tell me how dangerous Springfield is.
Maybe it’s me, but I like Springfield, Detroit and Memphis, too. Always have a great time whenever I’m there. I think they all get a bad rap from folks who have never been there.
- Boone Logan Square - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:22 am:
You could do a lot worse than the South Bronx these days. The violent crime rate there (as in all NYC boroughs) has fallen way off in recent years.
Same is true of most Illinois communities (including Chicago), although you wouldn’t know it by watching the TV news.
- MrJM - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:30 am:
The Simpsons, Homer the Vigilante (1994)
- Pelon - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:31 am:
“Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that.” - H. Simpson
- Anonymous - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:40 am:
Does East St. Louis actually have a police force? Those numbers are astounding.
- Michelle Flaherty - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:42 am:
The FBI classifies horseshoes “aggravated assault”. So the ranking makes perfect sense.
- Ben - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:42 am:
@MrjM
Is it time to crack open each other’s heads and feast on the goo inside?
- Michelle Flaherty - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:44 am:
It’s a good thing the SJR is wary of any and all ranking stories.
http://www.sj-r.com/thedome/x1194961318/Survey-Illinois-among-worst-states-to-do-business
- Team Sleep - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:48 am:
I too question these stats. St. Louis was #1 in 2009 but they are now apparently not in the Top 10? I have a hard time believing Mayor Slay has turned his city around that quickly. Mayor Houston is right to be concerned and upset. While I agree we have crime in our fair city, I cannot imagine that we are #3 in the nation. Heck, when looking at East Louis, you have a 1 in 19 chance of being a victim of a violent crime!
- 21st State - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:51 am:
if no one demands a certain standard of journalism, there shall not be one
Daily Show last night had the perfect illustration of how absurd ‘news’ is these days when recounting the coverage of the Wall St protesters by certain outlets
the American electorate sits content on its couch and just blindly consumes - without regard to what’s going in their ears, or down their pieholes
any different than them be damned, this is America
- Homer J. Simpson - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:52 am:
I for one welcome our new insect overlords.
- EJ - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 11:53 am:
Last night I went through the FBI data and calculated the rankings according to actual cities instead of the metro areas the data is originally grouped by. The result was the city of Springfield being #36. St. Louis was in the top 10.
- Secret Square - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 12:03 pm:
I live in the Patch and believe it or not, I can actually walk to and from work (downtown) without tripping over dead bodies, dodging bullets, fighting off rapists or getting robbed on a regular basis. I have been out on the streets at all hours of the day and night and NEVER at any time felt personally threatened. I have a very, very hard time believing that Springfield is more dangerous than Peoria or E. St. Louis, let alone Chicago, NYC, or LA.
- Ray del Camino - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 12:26 pm:
The news media do a little goofy-dance every time these data come out. Springfield IL as #3 doesn’t pass the laugh test! Why didn’t that make the dope Forbes editor do a little checking? Jeez. They could have asked EJ, who, apparently did some smart figuring, but even then the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Poor St. Louis, for example, is a home-rule city–its own county, in effect–and cannot expand or annex nicer areas. You can’t compare it with places like Kansas City or Chicago.
But these are niceties and subtleties that are wasted on stripped-down, under-funded, bean-counting media outlets these days.
*Sigh*
- Secret Square - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 12:37 pm:
“if you work for Forbes, anyplace outside of Park Avenue and The Hamptons probably appears dangerous.”
Well, if they knew about all the alleged sightings of Sasquatch/Bigfoot and cougars in central Illinois then they would REALLY think Springfield is dangerous….
- x ace - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 12:41 pm:
Springfield, maybe get a Gazebo ?
10+ Years Ago Kankakee was ranked Worst Place in America to Live.
Jokes flourished , and comedian David Letterman sent the town a Gazebo to help raise the ranking.
- Bigtwich - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 12:48 pm:
Perhaps it was a former Mayor of Springfield who said, “The people are safe in neither their persons nor property when the Legislature is in session.
- Originally from Springfield - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 12:56 pm:
I agree that Springfield is not the 3rd most dangerous city in the US. However rather than just saying this is a stupid article, Springfield needs to recognize that crime is a problem and address the problem. I can remember years ago, Springfield ranking high on a list of good places to live, with the exception of a high crime rate, so this is not a new problem.
- The KQ - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 1:25 pm:
I think this sums up my thoughts on statistics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUK6zjtUj00
- D.P. Gumby - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 2:07 pm:
Do you know how big a mess it makes when the morning coffee comes out your nose?
(Forbes rates that as a violent crime I think)
- Retired Non-Union Guy - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 2:23 pm:
I won’t say the numbers were a bit cooked, but as the FBI points out, they have to use the data that is entered. As was validly pointed out by Springfield officials, law enforcement agencies have leeway in how (or even if) they enter the data. Nobody is looking over their shoulder. Where multiple charges are made, they could enter the least “worst” one or whatever the charge is finally bargained down to … thereby making their city’s statistics look better.
Springfield claims they use a strict standard. I don’t know if they do or not but they apparently use a consistent one; the year over year numbers released show a decrease just like the overall national trend.
The questions to ask are: if Springfield didn’t make the magic list the last few years, and crime went down in Springfield, how come they made the list this year? What happened to all the other cities that used to be on the list? Did they find magic beans to solve their crime, or did they just quit reporting it because they were so busy, with reduced staff and increased calls, to do the extra paperwork?
- Newsclown - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 3:38 pm:
Here’s the secret: the cities that don’t want to be on that list next time have to buy ad space in Forbes magazine.
- Happy Returns - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 3:47 pm:
Be a good QOTD for Friday- what did Springfield do to Forbes? Did one of their writers get served a cold horsehoe?
- walkinfool - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 3:47 pm:
You gotta be kidding me. W’Slinger’s got it right. Having worked or lived in three of the cities he lists above, and in Springfield — Springfield is not even in the top half of dangerous places.
- MrJM - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 4:07 pm:
Yes I would, Ben.
– MrJM
- doc17 - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 5:01 pm:
—23—
To quote Benjamin Franklin “There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics ” ive crunched numbers for years and stats can be made to prove both sides of an argument using the same data.
doc
—30—
- Retired Non-Union Guy - Thursday, Oct 6, 11 @ 10:40 pm:
Doc17,
I’ve used that line a lot, especially when some State manager had a preconceived idea of what the results of a study I was conducting should have been. However, that quote didn’t originate with Ben Franklin. In fact, you don’t even find him listed as one of the possible sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
Actually, this version is probably more applicable here:
“There are Five kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, Politicians quoting statistics, and Novelists quoting Politicians on Statistics”