* Larry Sabato has released his new list of congressional race rankings. NBC5’s blogger turned the rankings into narrative…
8th District: …this is an open seat. The Democratic primary is a contest between Tammy Duckworth and Raja Krishamoorthi. One of those two will be the next congressman, says Sabato, who rates this district “Likely Democratic.”
10th District: Rep. Bob Dold was drawn out of this North Shore district, but plans to run anyway. He won’t be favored. According to the Crystal Ball, his new district “Leans Democratic.”
11th District: Another open seat, in which the representative, Adam Kinzinger, is challenging a fellow Republican congressman in another district. Former Rep. Bill Foster is the favorite in this district, which is also rated “Likely Democratic.”
13th District: Tim Johnson has represented East-Central Illinois in Congress since 2001, but his new district goes all the way from Champaign to the Mississippi River. Most of this is new territory for Johnson. As a result, the Crystal Ball calls this a “Toss-Up.”
17th District: Freshman Bobby Schilling was elected in 2010 to represent a Western Illinois district that had been gerrymandered to favor a Democrat, by reaching into Decatur and Springfield. This time, the district takes in parts of Peoria and Rockford. As a result, it is rated “Lean Democratic.”
I’m not so sure about all of these, but I’ll agree with the 8th District. The primary’s the big race there.
The 10th is more Democratic than it was under the old map, but Dold is no slouch. Then again, he won by just two points last year in a huge GOP landslide. But neither Democrat who’s emerged so far appears to be all that ready for primetime.
The 11th is “Likely Democratic”? If the remap withstands judicial review, Foster will be up against Judy Biggert. It won’t be a slam dunk by any means.
I currently give Johnson an ever so slight advantage in the 13th. The district is more Democratic than his current one, and it has a ton of university students who tend to vote in presidential elections. But Johnson is a strong campaigner who is moving left by the day.
And the 17th District is also more Democratic, but Schilling proved to be one heckuva campaigner last year. Also, if Sen. Dave Koehler wins the Democratic primary, Schilling will be able to whack him on the tax hike and all the other quite liberal votes he’s taken. Lean Democratic, however, is probably accurate for now.
* Meanwhile, Joe Walsh continued attacking his primary opponent Randy Hultgren as a tool of GOP leadership during a campaign event yesterday…
Walsh said he is the “right kind of Republican” who is not afraid of a fight, not one like Hultgren who votes the way his party leadership tells him to vote.
“I get in a fight every week with my leadership,” Walsh said. “And here’s what the fight is about. [House Speaker] John Boehner … this is what he tells us every week: If we would just be quiet [and] don’t make waves right now. Privately, John Boehner … doesn’t want someone like me around. If it’s Randy Hultgren against Joe Walsh running for this Congressional seat, I can guarantee you John Boehner and other folks are going to do whatever they can to help Randy get elected. Randy does what he’s told by them.” […]
“What I’d rather do is have the fight,” Walsh said. “This fight is for the soul of what this country’s about … If we send the wrong kind of Republicans to Washington next year, we’re going to lose … If we send typical Republicans to Washington, I can tell you, the typical Republicans will do what helped get us in this mess and they’ll forget they’re Republicans.”
Is Speaker Boehner really that unpopular with Republican primary voters? I don’t know about Illinois, but a September CNN/ORC poll showed 56 percent of Republicans had a favorable opinion of the Speaker, while just 25 percent had an unfavorable viewpoint. I get that Walsh is attempting to paint himself as an independent, but campaigning against DC culture is one thing, actively campaigning against Boehner might be counterproductive.
* Hultgren’s response…
“Simply more of the same from the congressman from the 8th District – baseless accusations and attempts to legislate through sound bites and grandstanding,” Hultgren campaign spokesman Andrew Flach said. “The residents of the 14th District deserve better.”
- Just Observing - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 10:44 am:
Agree with Rich on the 10th. I’ll go a step further and say Dold is the favorite. He is a Mark Kirk-type Republican which has played very well in the 10th for decades and the two Dem. challengers are novices.
- OneMan - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 10:47 am:
Not sure that Foster is that big of a favorite in the 11th, Not a lot of his old district in the new one. Also don’t forget he barely won his primary last time
- The Captain - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 10:48 am:
Not sure what’s in Hultgren’s heart but if he decides he’s had enough of Walsh he’s certainly got the right staff to run a bruising campaign. That race could get very entertaining.
- wordslinger - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 10:49 am:
Walsh isn’t interested in working with anyone. He just wants to be “right,” in his own mind.
- Downstate Illinois - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 10:56 am:
It’s interesting that he still has IL12 as Leans Democratic, considering the Democrats still haven’t found someone to run in Costello’s seat.
- so... - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 10:58 am:
Until a viable Democrat emerges in the 10th, Dold is the favorite. He’s somebody, and you can’t be somebody with nobody.
- so... - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 10:59 am:
apologies for the typo. The end of my previous comment should read “you can’t BEAT somebody with nobody.”
- mokenavince - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:02 am:
Walsh should be a one termer.Weather it’s with his Xwife or Boehner, their all the same to Walsh.
All he ever does is whine,Randy is a much better
choice for that seat.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:04 am:
Sabato is wrong. Rich is right. Here is why-Professor Sabato is not working from firsthand knowledge and Miller is. Sabato relies on his abstract theories instead. Miller knows.
With this economy the edge goes to the new guys.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:07 am:
The new guys were the ones elected last year. Except Walsh. He blows.
- mokenavince - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:10 am:
I will be glad to see to Kinzinger leave Mokena in the next election,he really did nothing for the district. Most of the newly elected, Republicans did nothing to help get jobs.Big hats and no cattle.
- Shore - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:11 am:
they ignored the kinzinger, jackson, walsh things which to me will tell us as much as any of these interparty fights. My experience with these national people and sabato is rather informed is that much of their analysis is based on national trends. They don’t do actual on the ground reporting. So they say, there’s a well educated district that went for obama big last time-bingo democrat or candidate x outraised candidate y by 50,000, x is going all the way! they miss a lot of the dynamic. You have to keep that in perspective when evaluating their take. It’s better than cable news blather, but there were times in the last cycle when I felt some of the commenters here were more spot on than they were.
- J - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:13 am:
Rich, I’ve got to agree with you on the 10th. As someone who actually worked against Dold in 2010, I can tell you that Dold isn’t a brilliant campaigner, but he’s definitely going to be putting in the hours. If Dold goes down, it won’t be because he didn’t do the work.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:47 am:
while i don’t disagree with rich’s analysis, it’s silly to dismiss sabato, cook and/or rothenberg simply because they aren’t here. their scorecards will influence these races, especially the competitive races. federal pacs make decisions based upon their analyses and traditional donors pay attention to them, as well. redistricting always upsets a few apple carts, so i wouldn’t be so quick to jump to conclusions based upon the last decade…
- walkinfool - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:47 am:
Another agreement with Rich on the 10th. Any one of 5 or 6 ex- and current mayors, state reps and senators might be able to beat Dold, but so far the Dems don’t have serious candidates.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:48 am:
Anonymous, redistricting was, indeed, factored into my thinking, as the post notes.
- Team Sleep - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 11:52 am:
I think the 12th is a prime GOP pick-up. My guess is that the NRCC plays big-time in the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 17th Districts. I believe the NRCC will not be as aggressive in other states because the GOP drew the maps in most toss-up states, so Illinois will have numerous high-dollar races that will require the NRCC’s help. I think it’s fair to rate the 10th, 11th, 13th and 17th Districts as toss-ups. I also think national types need to be careful when assessing Bobby Schilling’s chances. No matter if you like him personally or not - the man has a great story and campaigns very well.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 12:11 pm:
When you see and hear Dold speak in person, or speak to him in person, you will discover why he wins.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 12:35 pm:
There’s certainly precedent for thinking redistricting would take someone out and finding s/he wins in the new district.
I’m curious, what should Ilya Sheyman have done be this point in the process to show he’s ready for “prime time”?
He’s got lots of small donors. He’s getting media coverage. He’s building a ground game.
What’s the big tell that he’s not ready for “prime time”?
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 12:37 pm:
I will concede that Dold and his wife are likeable on a personal level, especially to Republicans who will concede that Mark Kirk is one of the most condescending people in politics.
There’s a reason the corporate media and Kirk’s handlers shelter Kirk from direct interaction with regular voters (as opposed to interest group voters).
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 12:44 pm:
Dold won a squeaker in a Republican year. He won against a guy who had never been elected to office and had repeatedly lost that particular race.
Dold won, but I wouldn’t put him in the category of particularly strong campaigners based on one election where he retained a Republican seat in a cycle where the GOP defeated four Dem incumbents Bean, Halvorson, Foster and Hare.
Had Seals done just a shade better, I think we could put Dold in the category of particularly ineffective campaigners.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 1:40 pm:
Ok, Carl, so you were right. However, rather than a feeing of “superiority” at play, I think it’s the exact opposite. Whatever the reason, no one will ever accuse him again of being the “man of the people”. And no matter how hard he tries, this is the one trait that all the cameras and media coverage in the world will be unable to afford him. Some say he looks like Bush at times, but obviously doesn’t have–and can’t even fake–1/10th of the charm or compassion Bush had for people when he met with them out in the streets.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 1:42 pm:
Sorry. “…feeling….”
- Lil' Enchilada - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 2:41 pm:
17th District - YAWN.
- bored now - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 2:54 pm:
hmm, i was anonymous 11:47 am. guess i should have checked my browser.
rich: my comment wasn’t aimed at your post, but a couple of comments…
- CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 3:16 pm:
Looks like DeadBeat Joe Walsh is quickly racing to become the latest Alan Keyes of IL..perhaps Gags Brady should launch an “Occupy JoeWalsh’s Mouth” to stop the dopieness from seeping into the public
- Just Observing - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 4:43 pm:
=== Dold won a squeaker in a Republican year. He won against a guy who had never been elected to office and had repeatedly lost that particular race. ===
Dold never was elected to office either and he beat a guy that a six year head start on name ID and organization.
- jake - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 5:04 pm:
A big issue with Tim Johnson in the 13th is the strength of the campaign against him. If the candidate is Jay Hoffman, I think that Tim is in trouble. If it is David Gill, then it depends on whether Gill is a sufficiently improved campaigner over his last run at Johnson. I think he is better than he was, but we would have to see if he is enough better.
- Wilson Pickett - Friday, Oct 21, 11 @ 5:43 pm:
I had a chance to see and listen to Joe Walsh in person recently. I expected to see Lucifer based on all of the press and negative comments about his being a political “show-boat” and a dead-beat dad. Instead, I saw a very likeable guy who had the same degree of charm and enthusiasm as the guy who sold musical instruments in “The Music Man”. I had also met and spoken with Randy Hultgren several years ago when he was running for office. Although Mr. Walsh certainly isn’t Lucifer and he is an excellent and enthusiastic speaker, , I would (for some reason) still feel safer leaving my wife, my kids, and my money under the care and supervision of Mr. Hultgren should I not be around any longer to care and protect them. Call it, “Just a gut-feeling”.