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Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Veto session starts next week and I’m actually looking forward to it. I’m tired of sitting in my office all day. I need some action, man, and this office thing isn’t doing it, even if it is in my house and I can technically leave whenever I want.

Gov. Pat Quinn might not have a great week. A whole lot of his vetoes will be overridden and I haven’t seen so many legislators this angry at a governor since the days of rage under Rod. So, everybody, let’s chill out before the storm with a little Bob tune from Phish

Ev’rybody’s ’neath the trees
Feeding pigeons on a limb

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*** UPDATED x1 Cellni won’t testify ***

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** Natasha Korecki has just reported that Bill Cellini will not testify on his own behalf.

Apparently, Cellini’s lawyer is more confident in his case than people like myself.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* After yesterday’s very damaging testimony, he may have no choice but to take the stand

Attorneys have raised the possibility that an Illinois powerbroker accused of conspiring to shake down the Oscar-winning producer of “Million Dollar Baby” could take the stand in his own defense.

William Cellini’s attorney told Judge James Zagel the millionaire businessman will make a final decision by the end of Friday. Prosecutor Chris Niewoehner told Zagel he’d been told it was likely Cellini would take the stand.

The danger in testifying, of course, is that if he testifies and is found guilty his punishment could be more severe and his chances of winning any appeals are diminished.

* As I told you yesterday, Tom Rosenberg essentially testified on the stand that Cellini did, indeed, deliver a message from Stu Levine that he’d better pony up or lose his Teachers Retirement System business. That’s all prosecutors really needed to prove. Cellini’s legal team attempted to do some damage control during cross examination

Cellini’s lawyer, Terry Gillespie, focused on Rosenberg’s relationship with Cellini and Levine in his cross-examination. While U.S. District Judge James Zagel disallowed many of his questions, Gillespie attempted to get across the defense’s contention that Cellini was only helping Rosenberg, a friend of 30 years, at Rosenberg’s request.

Rosenberg testified that he called Levine’s lawyer, former Chicago Ald. Ed Vrdolyak, to ask if Levine was holding up the investment. Rosenberg testified that he believed Vrdolyak when he said Levine wasn’t involved.

Levine testified this week that Vrdolyak was to share with him, Kelly and Rezko, a $2 million bribe they were plotting to extort from Rosenberg.

“I didn’t actually think it was Stuart Levine,” Rosenberg said regarding the call to Vrdolyak, “but I wanted to make sure.

* The prosecution rested its case yesterday. Judge Zagel denied a defense motion for a directed verdict today

Cellini’s attorney, Dan Webb, criticized the government’s case as weak and called its star witness, Stuart Levine: “the single most non-credible witness I’ve seen in my career.” […]

Webb also argued that the victim of an alleged extortion scheme, Tom Rosenberg, testified he never was asked by Cellini for a political contribution or anything of value.

But prosecutors said the conspiracy was clear: Cellini agreed with Levine and others that there would be state action on a state pension board in exchange for a campaign contribution to then- Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

U.S. District Judge James Zagel said the defense was “railing against charges that were not made.”

* Let’s go to the ScribbleLive machine. BlackBerry users can click here. Everybody else just follow along below…

  27 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Pantagraph editorial board dug up some quotes made by Pat Quinn in 1988 while pushing for a constitutional convention

It’s time for a pop quiz.

Who said Illinoisans need “a way to bypass smug politicians” and wrote about “the painful fact … that Illinois government has slipped into a dangerous state of decay in recent years”?

That same person also asked, “What job-creating new companies want to do business in a state with an international reputation for corrupt politicians and bad government?” And he referred to the “involuntary ‘corruption tax’” paid because of “the lack of honesty in state and local government.”

I’ve already done one of these where I asked what the old Pat Quinn would say to the new Pat Quinn. So…

* The Question: How would Gov. Pat Quinn justify his current behavior to 1988 Pat Quinn?

Snark is most heavily encouraged, of course.

  52 Comments      


A fair trial before the hanging

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Senate President John Cullerton revealed how he plans to deal with Gov. Pat Quinn’s gaming expansion demands

.“Well, what we’ll do is we’ll go down to Springfield and we’ll have the governor’s bill and we’ll present it and vote on it and we’ll see,” Cullerton said during an interview at the Tribune’s Chicago Live stage show at the Chicago Theater. “And if it doesn’t work, we’ll go back to the drawing board.”

Admitted Cullerton: “Right now there’s not the votes and we’re very disappointed the governor made this action.”

This is right out of the old anti-Rod Blagojevich playbook. The House did this very thing to Blagojevich’s gross receipts tax proposal. They brought it to the floor and nobody voted for it. Shortly after, Blagojevich said he’d had an “up day.”

So, they’ll give the governor’s plan a fair hearing before the hanging. Then they’ll run their own bill

Emanuel backed the measure that passed, and state Sen. Terry Link, D-Waukegan, has said he is preparing a measure to restore casino-type gambling at the tracks.

“The mayor has been very, very consistent and forceful,” Cullerton said of Emanuel’s support for a Chicago casino. “It’s fun to work with the mayor. I’ve learned a lot of new words. He’s focused. He’s very focused. He wants this extra money for infrastructure.”

But they’re probably gonna need a veto-proof majority because Quinn has said he opposes slots at tracks.

* As noted below, Quinn and Emanuel held a joint media event today about McCormick Place reforms. But I’m told by Illinois Information Service that no off-topic questions were taken at the event.

Bummer.

…Adding…
Raw audio…

* Roundup…

* Only 1.5 percent of state public high schools met federal progress mark

* Record percentage of Illinois schools fail to meet federal targets - Results raise questions not only about schools, but about the standards’ value

* Half of Illinois high schoolers not reading at grade level

* State to Seek No Child Left Behind Waiver

* Ruling Bolsters Union in Longer School Day Fight: Robert Bloch, the union’s lawyer, said the board’s ruling is less about preventing a longer school day than it is about preserving the union’s collective-bargaining rights. If CPS is not stopped, the administration will have “thrust a dagger into the heart of collective bargaining,” Bloch said during Thursday’s hearing.

* School bus budget cuts up for veto session debate

* Suburban superintendents watching Springfield: Lawmakers could either reverse Quinn’s cuts at a time when the state budget is tight. Or, a plan has emerged to divert some money from local businesses taxes to pay for the offices. A spokesman for House Speaker Michael Madigan said there seems to be growing support for the local option. “I think there’s a lot of interest, Brown said.

* McCormick union deal could help keep conventions

* Quinn, Emanuel announce labor deals at McCormick Place

* Hanging on to exchanges hinges on nailing down tax-break formula - CME, CBOE negotiations with state hung up on how to identify where trades originate

* Health Exchanges Still In The “Studying” Stage: In order for the landmark Affordable Care Act to be implemented successfully, Illinois, along with other states, needs to set up a health insurance exchange. The General Assembly, though, has dithered and what form a health exchange will take isn’t at all clear heading into the state’s fall veto session.

* Lincoln community leaders request meeting with Quinn

* Deadbeat Illinois: If all else fails, beg … to a politician

* Warren: A $90M Pension Surprise

* Mayor, top cop send mixed signals on cameras for speeders - Emanuel says plan is for areas near schools and parks; McCarthy says that’s ‘just a start’

* In High-Crime Areas, Still Too Few Chicago Police

* Emanuel to headline big UNO dinner

* County budget to have 1,000 layoffs, sales tax cut

  9 Comments      


Fight Rate Increases – Vote Yes on the Comprehensive Energy Efficiency and Investment Act

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

A recent front page Chicago Tribune story (“Electric Bill Shocker,” June 11) warns that coal plant closures are about to cause our electric rates to spike:


    “Consumers could see their electricity bills jump an estimated 40 to 60 percent in the next few years.

    The reason: Pending environmental regulations will make coal-fired generating plants, which produce about half the nation’s electricity, more expensive to operate. Many are expected to be shuttered.”


Consumers ARE ALREADY GOING TO PAY between “$107 and 178 a year” more beginning in 2014, according to CUB. More will come unless we act.

Illinois legislators have a choice. The Comprehensive Energy Efficiency and Investment Act includes:

    Energy efficiency programs the IPA says will offset residential rate increases
    Solar rooftop support for business and government
    Expanded rate protections for Taylorville and other clean power projects
    16,000 direct and indirect jobs, according to the University of Illinois
    Extensive MWDBE program for minority contractors

While opponents spread disinformation and use scare tactics, sponsors like Senate President John Cullerton and Representative John Bradley know that SB 1653 is a common sense approach to solving the serious problem of coal plant retirements.

Doing nothing is not an option.

Vote yes on SB 1653, the Comprehensive Energy Efficiency and Investment Act

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Sabato’s crystal ball and Walsh’s tirades against Boehner

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Larry Sabato has released his new list of congressional race rankings. NBC5’s blogger turned the rankings into narrative

8th District: …this is an open seat. The Democratic primary is a contest between Tammy Duckworth and Raja Krishamoorthi. One of those two will be the next congressman, says Sabato, who rates this district “Likely Democratic.”

10th District: Rep. Bob Dold was drawn out of this North Shore district, but plans to run anyway. He won’t be favored. According to the Crystal Ball, his new district “Leans Democratic.”

11th District: Another open seat, in which the representative, Adam Kinzinger, is challenging a fellow Republican congressman in another district. Former Rep. Bill Foster is the favorite in this district, which is also rated “Likely Democratic.”

13th District: Tim Johnson has represented East-Central Illinois in Congress since 2001, but his new district goes all the way from Champaign to the Mississippi River. Most of this is new territory for Johnson. As a result, the Crystal Ball calls this a “Toss-Up.”

17th District: Freshman Bobby Schilling was elected in 2010 to represent a Western Illinois district that had been gerrymandered to favor a Democrat, by reaching into Decatur and Springfield. This time, the district takes in parts of Peoria and Rockford. As a result, it is rated “Lean Democratic.”

I’m not so sure about all of these, but I’ll agree with the 8th District. The primary’s the big race there.

The 10th is more Democratic than it was under the old map, but Dold is no slouch. Then again, he won by just two points last year in a huge GOP landslide. But neither Democrat who’s emerged so far appears to be all that ready for primetime.

The 11th is “Likely Democratic”? If the remap withstands judicial review, Foster will be up against Judy Biggert. It won’t be a slam dunk by any means.

I currently give Johnson an ever so slight advantage in the 13th. The district is more Democratic than his current one, and it has a ton of university students who tend to vote in presidential elections. But Johnson is a strong campaigner who is moving left by the day.

And the 17th District is also more Democratic, but Schilling proved to be one heckuva campaigner last year. Also, if Sen. Dave Koehler wins the Democratic primary, Schilling will be able to whack him on the tax hike and all the other quite liberal votes he’s taken. Lean Democratic, however, is probably accurate for now.

* Meanwhile, Joe Walsh continued attacking his primary opponent Randy Hultgren as a tool of GOP leadership during a campaign event yesterday

Walsh said he is the “right kind of Republican” who is not afraid of a fight, not one like Hultgren who votes the way his party leadership tells him to vote.

“I get in a fight every week with my leadership,” Walsh said. “And here’s what the fight is about. [House Speaker] John Boehner … this is what he tells us every week: If we would just be quiet [and] don’t make waves right now. Privately, John Boehner … doesn’t want someone like me around. If it’s Randy Hultgren against Joe Walsh running for this Congressional seat, I can guarantee you John Boehner and other folks are going to do whatever they can to help Randy get elected. Randy does what he’s told by them.” […]

“What I’d rather do is have the fight,” Walsh said. “This fight is for the soul of what this country’s about … If we send the wrong kind of Republicans to Washington next year, we’re going to lose … If we send typical Republicans to Washington, I can tell you, the typical Republicans will do what helped get us in this mess and they’ll forget they’re Republicans.”

Is Speaker Boehner really that unpopular with Republican primary voters? I don’t know about Illinois, but a September CNN/ORC poll showed 56 percent of Republicans had a favorable opinion of the Speaker, while just 25 percent had an unfavorable viewpoint. I get that Walsh is attempting to paint himself as an independent, but campaigning against DC culture is one thing, actively campaigning against Boehner might be counterproductive.

* Hultgren’s response

“Simply more of the same from the congressman from the 8th District – baseless accusations and attempts to legislate through sound bites and grandstanding,” Hultgren campaign spokesman Andrew Flach said. “The residents of the 14th District deserve better.”

  29 Comments      


I’m not sure this is really why he won

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Pat Quinn’s media guru Joe Slade White and the governor’s campaign manager Ben Nuckels co-wrote an analysis of last year’s gubernatorial campaign for Campaigns & Elections Magazine. As expected, they took the credit

But going into the job, one of the tough decisions Quinn had to make was advocating for an increase in the state income tax. It wasn’t your typical campaign platform, especially in an election year dominated by jobs and the economy. And, as it turned out, a Republican tidal wave would sweep many safer Democrats with easier races, out of office. But that’s what we were faced with.

Knowing that executive offices are often won and lost on a candidate’s character and values, we drove that debate with a series of paid media spots against Brady, always posing the same question to voters: “Who is this guy?”

By tying each policy issue and legislative vote to Brady’s values and worldview, we were able to define him as someone voters should be uncomfortable with. The spot we crafted on Brady’s support to lower the minimum wage, for example, wasn’t just about lowering the minimum wage. It was about painting Brady as an out-of-touch multi-millionaire who doesn’t understand the struggles of everyday people. It was also about Brady’s values, demonstrating how he might look at other problems should he win the governor’s office.

Contrast that to our positive spots in the final weeks of the race. They were all about Quinn’s character and values. This was our trump card. Throughout his life Quinn has worked to earn his reputation as an honest leader who was never afraid to speak up and battle special interests on behalf of everyday men and women. In an age of cynicism, Quinn’s low-key authenticity and reputation as an honest leader proved a powerful weapon. Our positive spots tried to capture that essence and remind voters that this was the guy who fought as a reformer and consumer advocate on behalf of middle-class Illinois families for decades.

Yeah, OK. One problem: Quinn’s positive spots in the final weeks were direct copies of the ads he had already successfully used in the last weeks of the Democratic primary (”You know me,” and “Ford jobs”). Neither White nor Nuckels were around for that primary race.

* And this is just standard operating procedure for Illinois. You simply cannot win Illinois without the support of “persuadable” suburban women. Every gubernatorial candidate since Jim Edgar’s 1990 campaign who has won persuadable suburban women has also won the governor’s race. So, it didn’t take a genius to undermine Brady with that demographic…

Our first ad in the Chicago area highlighted Brady’s vote to allow guns in or near schools. But it wasn’t just about guns. It was also about what type of person would take such a vote. To the Democratic base, the spot was about a candidate who seemed extreme—a candidate who didn’t seem to care about homicide or violence in the city. On another level, the spot was about the fact that Brady had a very different set of cultural values.

We reprised a variation of this ad in the final five days of the campaign, defining Brady on his vote against a ban on the sale of guns to convicted spouse and child abusers. Among women in the Chicago area, this tested as the top reason to cast a vote against Brady last November. But we didn’t want to run the ad in the general market. Instead, we blitzed all of the women’s programming on cable networks throughout the Chicago media market in the final five days with no response from our opponent. It was especially effective with persuadable women voters in suburban Cook County and the surrounding suburban “collar” counties—voters any Republican statewide candidate needs to win over to be victorious.

* Throughout the summer, I was writing that the Quinn campaign was avoiding Downstate in order to concentrate on the Chicago market. I was told by the Quinn campaign that I was wrong. Now, they say I was right…

In many instances, we only bought cable in multiple downstate markets while our opponent was attacking us on broadcast television. We wanted to advertise more heavily in the Chicago area—where our voters lived.

Also, the unions pushed hard for Quinn Downstate, which probably helped.

* And I’m not sure how innovative this media strategy was…

We used innovative media strategy, blitzing women’s programming on Chicago cable stations in the final days, and targeting key African-American voters in downstate Illinois on cable programming. We didn’t run a heavy direct mail campaign in small communities.

They didn’t run a heavy direct mail campaign anywhere. And Personal PAC’s TV ads focusing on women’s programming and direct mail targeted at its huge contact list were more effective, in my opinion.

* They won, so they have an absolute right to gloat. Joe Slade White’s 1990s-style ads worked better than I thought they would. Nuckels came to the game a green, inexperienced kid, but did his job as well as Quinn would let him. Just about everybody had written Quinn off in the summer, but he came back to win. A victory lap is allowed by his advisors. A more accurate accounting would’ve been appreciated, however. [This post was originally cut off. Not sure why. I fixed it.]

  41 Comments      


Quinn move backfires on governor

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remember Arlene Juracek, the retired ComEd executive whom Gov. Pat Quinn recently appointed to run the Illinois Power Agency? Quinn ousted Director Mark Pruitt to appoint Juracek, who rose to the rank of ComEd vice president. The governor insisted there was no conflict of interest, even though former ComEd veep Juracek still owns a significant amount of Exelon stock. Exelon is ComEd’s parent company. Juracek’s new job involves negotiating power contracts on behalf of consumers, meaning she’ll be sitting across the table from Exelon execs.

Quinn wanted Director Pruitt out because he was resisting signing long term contracts with alternative power companies, like wind and solar. Pruitt did get the ball rolling on some wind power contracts, but in one of her first moves in office, Juracek reversed Pruitt’s decision

In an unexpected move, she reversed Mr. Pruitt’s plan to solicit offers for 20-year contracts for wind farm developers — a priority of Mr. Quinn, who sees green jobs growth as a major part of his economic development agenda for the state. Instead, she plans to solicit offers for one-year contracts only, which the wind industry has complained won’t foster development of new wind farms in the state because developers can’t get financing unless they have long-term sales contracts.

Guess who opposed former Director Pruitt’s move? ComEd and Exelon, of course. This is a home run for Juracek’s former boss.

* Next up, FutureGen

In addition, Ms. Juracek reversed Mr. Pruitt’s plan to solicit bids for power from “clean-coal” plants, a provision aimed at allowing the developers of the proposed FutureGen 2.0 project to finance the part of the project not subsidized by the U.S. Department of Energy. FutureGen is a top priority of Mr. Quinn.

Exelon and ComEd oppose these clean coal projects, as do other utilities. Another home run.

* And then there’s solar

And, finally, Ms. Juracek removed Mr. Pruitt’s proposal to solicit bids from small-scale solar facilities, a priority of environmentalists’ and also supported by Mr. Quinn. She said in her report that she was committed to including the solar bids in future procurement plans, but would like the idea to be developed more in workshops with interested parties.

Once again, Gov. Quinn supported bids from solar companies, but ComEd and Exelon opposed it.

That’s three ComEd/Exelon home runs in just two weeks. I asked the governor’s office about this mess last night. So far, no word on their thinking. They didn’t respond at all to Crain’s. I’ll let you know if they come up with something later today.

* It looks like Lisa Madigan was right Here’s what the attorney general’s office said when Quinn announced the Juracek appointment

The attorney general’s office says it has “concerns” about Juracek’s appointment. “Ms. Juracek was with ComEd for 15 years and championed the so-called `reverse auction’ that would have been devastating for consumers,” a spokeswoman for the agency said. “In fact, the IPA was formed in reaction to the reverse auction and ComEd agreed to return $1 billion to customers.” […]

According to the attorney general, there are “many questions that must be answered, including any financial interests or other connections [Juracek] may have with ComEd or Exelon.” Juracek confirmed she still owns Exelon stock. She said she has no plans to sell the stock but would place the stock “in a box and not do anything with it as long as I’m on the job.”

Yeah. Great. She’ll hold onto the stock, which will likely rise on this latest news.

* Juracek still has to be confirmed by the Senate. The governor also vetoed a bill this year which would’ve taken away his authority over the IPA. That bill was backed by House Speaker Michael Madigan. Expect an override and possibly a rocky confirmation procedure.

…Adding… This is what Acting Director Juracek told Crain’s a couple of weeks ago

“Whatever happens going forward,” Ms. Juracek said, “the (procurement) process is so transparent. It’s virtually impossible for the director of the IPA to make a unilateral decision because of that transparency.”

As a friend of mine just pointed out, it looks like she managed to find the window between “possible” and “virtually impossible.”

  40 Comments      


They’re Asking Us to Pay Seven Times the Market Price for Electricity?!

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

The Illinois legislature is expected to consider SB 1653 during the veto session – a bill that could have us paying up to seven times today’s market price for electricity to build a power plant we don’t need.

With this legislation, Tenaska, an out-of-state energy company, is trying to build the Taylorville Energy Center (TEC), and they want to pass on the costs to Illinois consumers. According to Tenaska’s own report, this project and the above market price for electricity would cost us at least $286 million per year for 30 years, and could very likely be significantly higher.

And if that doesn’t get your attention — Tenaska wants Illinois consumers to pay even if their plant produces no power.

SB 1653 or any legislation that supports the TEC would have devastating consequences on our economy and would cost our state thousands of jobs. That’s why Illinois legislators have already voted against the power plant twice before and why it should fail again.

To say no to paying seven times the market price for electricity, take a moment to let your legislator know that you oppose the Taylorville Energy Center.

Visit www.STOPCoalition.com to learn more.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Hatfield, McCoy to share stage

Friday, Oct 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up for visibility since this was posted Thursday night.]

* This should be a whole lot of fun. Check in around 11 tomorrow for audio/video…

GOVERNOR’S PUBLIC SCHEDULE
**Friday, October 21, 2011**

CHICAGO – Governor Pat Quinn and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will make a joint announcement.

WHEN: 9:45 a.m.

WHERE: McCormick Place
2301 South Lake Shore Drive
South Building, Level 3
Outside of Exhibit A
Chicago, 60616

* Obviously, this will be about the McPier labor agreement

Labor unions that have stymied work rule changes at McCormick Place have agreed to terms that will reduce costs for convention exhibitors, sources said.

Leadership of Chicago’s unionized carpenters agreed Thursday to new language in their agreement with the convention hall, the sources said. The settlement marked the successful conclusion of lengthy negotiations that involved aides to Gov. Pat Quinn and Mayor Rahm Emanuel. Both were involved out of concern that lucrative conventions might leave Chicago because of costs.

The politicians scheduled a joint news conference for Friday morning at McCormick Place to ballyhoo the deal. Executives of the Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority, the agency that runs McCormick Place, signed off on terms this week with the Chicago Regional Council of Carpenters and Teamsters Local 727.

Having these two gentlemen on stage at the same time for the first time in months will certainly be a treat. I’m sure they’ll both behave themselves, but will the media? Doubtful. Wish I could be there.

  7 Comments      


Myths vs. Facts on SB1652

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 has consumer protections like a 2.5% rate cap.”

SB1652: The cap applies to a customer’s entire bill (generally comprised of 70% energy costs and 30% delivery costs). With energy costs expected to decline over the next two years, ComEd and Ameren will have more room to increase the delivery charge and still remain under the cap. (Pages 101-103)

ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 does not guarantee utility profits.”

SB1652: The utilities’ profits are tied to an automatic formula that is based on 30-year Treasury bonds which are at historic lows. As Treasury bonds increase, so do ComEd and Ameren’s allowed profits. (Page 82)

ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 will create jobs.”

SB1652: ComEd and Ameren may charge ratepayers millions in severance costs for laying off workers. (Page 83)

ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 will hold the utilities accountable for their performance during extreme weather events.”

SB1652: ComEd and Ameren may each exclude 90 of the worst storms over the ten year program when calculating performance. (Page 97)

ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 is about smart grid.”

SB1652: The utilities may recover money from ratepayers that has nothing to do with smart grid including executive bonuses, pension packages, workforce reduction costs, and storm expenses. (Pages 82-87).

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Behind the gaming bill

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This is from yesterday’s coverage of Gov. Pat Quinn’s gaming expansion press conference

The five new ones would operate in Chicago, South Cook County, North Suburban Lake County, Rockford and Danville. The governor said the ultimate locations should be determined by the Illinois Gaming Board, not by the General Assembly.

As a commenter pointed out last night, how can the governor insist that the Gaming Board should be the one to pick all the new locations and in the same breath say he wants to specifically name Danville and Rockford in the expansion legislation? And, of course, he’s OK with naming Chicago in the bill, too. There was no specification of the location of the south suburban casino, other than it had to be in the south suburbs, so there’d be no change if a Quinn-approved bill actually became law.

That just leaves the proposed Park City casino in Lake County, which is specified in the bill. Is the governor being hypocritical here? Or, maybe he’s just taking a not so subtle shot at Sen. Terry Link, who has been tied to a potential Park City casino owner. I’m betting he’s taking the shot while hoping nobody notices the hypocrisy.

* The Illinois Radio Network has a story about Gov. Quinn’s top priorities for the veto session. Number one is killing the legislative scholarship program, two is addressing the Smart Grid issue and here’s number three

Quinn said lawmakers must come up with a gambling expansion plan. While there is legislation to expand gambling that passed in the House and the Senate, Quinn says if it makes it to his desk in its current form, he’ll veto it.

It literally took the General Assembly decade to devise the current plan, which Quinn has vowed to veto. Crafting and then finding the votes to pass a new plan without slots at tracks, that requires local “opt-in” for video gaming, bans campaign contributions from the gaming industry, etc. all within the next three weeks is gonna require a legislative miracle.

* The strain is really starting to show

What Link and Lang may end up doing in the alternative is to write a “trailer bill” that would address some of Quinn’s concerns of about industry oversight, while keeping intact the slots-at-the-tracks provisions, and pass that along to Quinn. (Or, as Lang put it just now, “ram it down his throat.” Yes, things are getting a little tense here.)

A more polite approach

[State Sen. Dave Koehler, D-Peoria] said he also is concerned that Quinn had not fully engaged with lawmakers to find an acceptable compromise bill that could be passed.

That alone could mean that things are “back to square one,” said state Rep. David Leitch, R-Peoria.

* Meanwhile, Quinn’s action produced a sigh of relief in Iowa

[Tim Bollman, general manager of Wild Rose Casino and Resort] had some good news to report. Illinois Governor Pat Quinn announced he would not support a bill that would expand gambling in Illinois without significant changes. Quinn said that certain bill provisions, such as allowing slot machines at race venues, would have to be removed under threat of veto.

Bollman said that adding slot machines to race tracks in border cities could potentially lure a percentage of the Wild Rose’s client base away.

* But the Illinois attorney general is supportive

Attorney General Lisa Madigan said she was concerned from the beginning about the “enormous expansion” of gambling in Illinois.

“In order to expand gaming at any point you have to make sure you have the resources and the structure in place to ensure that you’re not ending up with a greater criminal element involved and that’s always been a priority of mine and I’m glad the governor took the time to look at this,” Madigan said.

* If Illinois ever could get its act together, then Indiana would have a right to be worried

Indiana’s reliance on casino gambling might not be so apparent in northeast Indiana, but it goes far beyond the service-sector jobs in communities where Indiana’s 13 casinos are found. Casinos generated more than $860 million in tax revenue last year, about 5 percent of all state tax revenue.

Five percent of all state revenues? That’s huge. By contrast, Illinois casinos comprise a little over 1 percent of state revenues. And a very big percentage of that Indiana money is coming across state lines from Illinois.

* Illinois wouldn’t keep all that money home, however, even if it somehow does manage to build Chicago and south suburban casinos. Gamblers like to smoke. Look at what happened in Illinois after the smoking ban took effect compared to surrounding states

Phil Kadner quotes COGFA

“In the Chicago region, Illinois’ four riverboats (aggregate gross revenue) totals have fallen a combined $472.5 million,” or a minus 35.5 percent since the state passed a ban on cigarette smoking, “while Indiana’s four Chicago-area riverboats have actually increased by $6.6 million or 0.6 percent during this same time frame,” according to the report.

  10 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Mark Parent as the new White Sox bench coach with Jim Thome as a possible hitting coach and an extension of Mark Buehrle’s contract? AJ’s rally beers? Will the Cubs unveil Theo Epstein as their new president of baseball operations tomorrow? And how about that World Series team just across the river?

That’s certainly more than one question, so just consider this a baseball open thread.

Enjoy.

  25 Comments      


This just in… Illinois unemployment rises to 10 percent

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 12:18 pm - From an Illinois Department of Employment Security press release…

The September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Illinois ticked up to 10 percent despite the addition of +1,600 new jobs, according to preliminary data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES). […]

In September 2011, unemployed individuals increased +10,500 (1.6 percent) to 663,300 compared to August. Total unemployed has declined -76,800 (-10.4 percent) since January 2010 when the state unemployment rate peaked at 11.2 percent.

* Unlike the rest of this year, government layoffs weren’t much of a factor. According to IDES, the same number of people were employed by state and local governments in September as in August. The year-over-year numbers are pretty astounding, however. Government employment is down 13,200 when compared to September of last year, far more than the 2nd place category, “Information,” which is off by 4,300.

The biggest month-to-month drops were in construction (3,000), financial activities (1,800) and information (1,200).

  16 Comments      


Message received?

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After more than a few backfire moments from their star witness Stu Levine, federal prosecutors lowered the boom on Bill Cellini in court today

A Hollywood producer testified in federal court Thursday morning that a Springfield power broker told him his business with the state had been put on hold because he hadn’t contributed to then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s campaign fund.

Producer and businessman Tom Rosenberg said his firm, Capri Capital, did not initially get the $220 million in state teachers’ pension fund business it was slotted to get.

When he asked Springfield millionaire William Cellini about it, Cellini told him he had angered Blagojevich fund-raisers Tony Rezko and Chris Kelly by not kicking in to the then-governor’s campaign fund, he said.

“Bill told me that Rezko and Kelly said it would not go forward until Capri made the appropriate (contribution),” Rosenberg testified. “He was telling me why it was stopped and it would be stopped until money was contributed to (Rod) Blagojevich.” […]

The testimony combats Cellini’s contention that he was an unwitting participant, or “the ham in the ham sandwich” in the alleged extortion scheme. Cellini is on trial, accused of conspiring with board member Stuart Levine, Rezko and Kelly to extort Rosenberg.

More

Assistant U.S. Attorney Christopher Niewoehner then asked Rosenberg how Cellini reacted to his ire.

“He was nervous,” Rosenberg quickly responded over the objection of Cellini’s attorney but then was allowed to continue. “I interpreted his voice as nervous.”

Stu Levine has testified that he asked Cellini to deliver a message to Rosenberg about the planned shakedown, and then Rosenberg essentially testified today that he got that message. The defense is cross-examining Rosenberg as I write this, but they’d better poke some big holes in Rosenberg’s story or Cellini could very well be doomed. I’ll let you know what happens.

* From yesterday’s proceedings, which were not witnessed by the jury

Prior to the start of the direct examination of Rosenberg, Terry Gillespie (of Gillespie and Genson) questioned Rosenberg out of the presence of the jury, a practice Judge Zagel employs frequently to decide whether and how to limit testimony of witnesses, in accord with the Federal Rules of Evidence.

Tom Rosenberg was questioned by Gillespie with regard to six telephone conversations Rosenberg had with Bill Cellini, which were the only communications the two had during the relevant time period [2004]. Rosenberg testified that at the time of each call he never felt that Cellini was trying to cause him economic harm. Gillespie will not be able to ask that type of question, which calls for a legal conclusion, in front of the jury this morning. However, he may be able to come close. If Gillespie succeeds in asking similar questions and getting similar answers, the result may be “game, set and match,” for Mr. Cellini.

* But Judge Zagel has limited the defense’s questions to the extent that Cellini’s lawyers asked for a mistrial yesterday

Cellini’s lead lawyer, Dan Webb, asked for a mistrial after U.S. Judge James Zagel refused to allow Webb to question Levine about statements Levine made in the Rezko trial.

Federal prosecutors contend Cellini relayed to Rosenberg that he would be expected to make a campaign contribution in order to get TRS funds to invest.

Webb said he believed Levine had contradicted himself in Cellini’s trial compared with testimony Levine gave in Rezko’s trial. Webb said Levine told the jury in Rezko’s trial that no one, including Cellini, directly asked Rosenberg for a $1.5 million political contribution to then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich in May 2004, when the conspiracy was being hatched. […]

“Their (the prosecution’s) theory is that Cellini’s purpose was to deliver … a message … that I would characterize as a ‘that day will come’ message,” Zagel said. “You can argue about whether he delivered the ‘that day will come’ message.”

Whether Cellini thought he delivered the message or not, today’s testimony indicates that Rosenberg received it.

Stay tuned.

…Adding… Let’s do the ScribbleLive thing to keep us updated as it goes along. As always, BlackBerry users click here. Everybody else can kick back and watch…

  12 Comments      


Deal may be close, but what about the budget?

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Negotiations are proceeding on tax breaks for CME Group and CBOE, which have both repeatedly threatened to move operations out of state

The proposal, which leaders want to push during the veto session that starts Tuesday, would rewrite state law to tax the exchanges only on trades or sales that occur in Illinois, said Senate President John Cullerton. Today, they must pay taxes on all trades, regardless of where the seller or buyer is located. The proposal thus would exclude the many electronic trades that pass through the exchanges from out-of-state parties.

“We’re close,” Mr. Cullerton, a Democrat from Chicago, said in an interview. “They make a strong argument for a correction. Now, it’s just a matter of it’s highly technical and we’re just trying to figure out a way to attribute the sales.”

Nonetheless, Mr. Cullerton said that there’s no agreement with CME yet because it’s not clear yet what the amount of the tax reduction might be.

CME Executive Chairman Terrence Duffy has contended his company pays more in Illinois corporate taxes than any other, including larger ones such as McDonald’s Corp. and Boeing Co., shouldering a disproportionate 6% share of total receipts. The issue came to a head when the state increased the corporate tax rate earlier this year to 7% from 4.8%, boosting CME’s annual expense by $50 million, he said.

The other question would be how this impacts the state budget, which is in better shape than last year, but still far from great. Then again, if CME and CBOE did follow through on their threats, the budgetary impact would be traumatic. Still, are the companies going to make any new Illinois investments in exchange for a break? That’s usually part of any deal.

* Of course, it would also help if the governor and the mayor were on better terms. For instance

They’re at it again.

After United Auto Workers announced Tuesday that employees nationwide had outvoted local workers and approved a new Ford Motor Co. contract, Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Gov. Pat Quinn staked their claim to the resulting 1,200 jobs in Chicago — in separate statements. […]

When the Ford jobs initially were on the table before workers ratified the deal, Quinn appeared cool to Emanuel’s celebration. Quinn publically said it wasn’t a big deal who gets credit, but his staff clearly wasn’t thrilled that Emanuel jumped out in front of the news.

And

A carpenters’ union has a tentative accord with the city of Chicago over labor reforms at McCormick Place, but no deal has yet been struck with Gov. Pat Quinn.

“We have an agreement with the city of Chicago and Mayor Emanuel, and we continue our discussions with Gov. Quinn,” a spokesman for the Chicago Regional Council of Carpenters confirmed Wednesday.

Mr. Quinn’s office was not immediately available to comment..

* In a related story, despite Sears’ well-known financial problems, the company claims that at least 15 states besides Illinois have offered incentives to move its headquarters and its 6,000 jobs from Hoffman Estates. And the company is pushing back against the naysayers

Sears insisted that its balance sheet is strong and it generates significant cash. As with most retailers, an overwhelming bulk of its business happens in the fourth quarter, Brathwaite said. […]

Despite its financial problems, Sears Holdings still ranks No. 52 on the Fortune 500 with more than $43 billion in revenues reported in fiscal year 2010. Sears employs about 6,100 people at its Hoffman Estates headquarters and 20,000 statewide. Its 1992 relocation invested about $200 million into local infrastructure and aided in the development of the Prairie Stone region, Brathwaite said.

Sears also is a major taxpayer in Illinois, to the tune of about $213 million last year and billions over the last 20 years, Brathwaite said.

“We’re an economic development engine for local businesses, with 9,000 in-state vendors, 30,000 hotel nights and meals, and 18,000 plane tickets in and out of O’Hare (International Airport) for visiting associates alone, with 100,000 people visiting our campus every year,” Brathwaite said.

* But the Tribune wants the state to slow down a bit

Illinois hasn’t exactly encouraged its employers to stay home. An income tax hike and an appalling failure to deal with the state’s massive debt — starting with its pension obligations — make moving a more attractive option. Sears is going to weigh its costs. One factor in Illinois’ favor is that Sears, like any business, will calculate the cost of business interruption and attrition of its talented workforce against the benefits of incentives being dangled by other states. There is a home field advantage.

Sears says it must know soon where Illinois stands. We understand that. This competition will move forward, with or without Illinois. The local governments should be negotiating with the state and each other on the terms of a new EDA. This matter can’t drag.

Don’t ram this down the throat of the local schools, though. That’s hardly the neighborly thing to do.

* Speaking of the locals, this court ruling is sure to send shivers down the spines of a whole lot of not-for-profit operators here

The Illinois Supreme Court let stand a decision by the Quinn administration to take away the property tax exemption of the Downstate retirement community affiliated with a Lutheran social services agency.

In a little-noticed case, the court has declined to hear the appeal of Meridian Village Assn., a 100-unit development that opened in 1999 in Glen Carbon, about 20 miles east of St. Louis.

Meridian, which was seeking to avoid paying about $161,000 in property taxes in 2000, provided just $30,000 in financial assistance to residents, according to an order issued earlier this year by Illinois Appellate Court in Mount Vernon. The appellate court ruled that the development was not entitled to tax-exempt status either as a charitable or a religious institution, upholding the position of the Illinois Department of Revenue.

The case is another example of how the department — and local officials — are taking a hard-nosed approach to property tax exemptions for non-profits. Operations providing minimal charity are especially vulnerable to losing their tax-exempt status. The state supreme court’s decision is particularly a warning to non-profit hospitals and other health care providers, which are battling in the courts and in the Illinois General Assembly to maintain the long-held benefit, which is possibly worth millions of dollars a year.

* Related…

* North Chicago mayor hopes Abbott breakup isn’t another Hospira: North Chicago Mayor Leon Rockingham Jr. said he hopes a split doesn’t mean that one company will leave, recalling that Hospira Inc. took its operation, along with hundreds of jobs, to Lake Forest after it spun off from Abbott in 2004.

* Ford deal OK’d that brings 2,000 jobs to Chicago

* Existing home and condo sales up, prices down in Chicago area - Median prices decline 8.6% to $160K outside of Chicago. Chicago prices climb 5.6% to $190K

* Leading indicators rise modest amount in September

* Tribune bankruptcy judge ‘days’ from deciding case: report

* Groupon to scale back IPO

  32 Comments      


A modest proposal

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The AP’s series on the state’s overdue bills continues today

The Illinois Department of Corrections insists its failure to pay its bills on time isn’t creating any safety concerns inside state prisons. But documents show a department executive warned of “a big problem looming” if a food supplier halted deliveries.

“I am fearful at some locations we won’t be able to meet the food needs of the population. To an inmate, food is the most important part of the day, so this obviously would create huge security concerns,” Bryan Gleckler, the department’s chief financial officer, wrote in a June letter that was obtained through the Freedom of Information Act.

The state soon coughed up part of the $2.5 million it owed the supplier, MJ Kellner Co. of Springfield, and Gleckler now plays down the safety concerns. He said the department tries to keep enough food on hand to keep providing meals even if deliveries are cut off.

As of Sept. 8th, the Illinois comptroller’s office had $39.3 million in Corrections-related bills that it hadn’t yet paid. That’s bad enough, but check out this item on the list

Interest on overdue bills: $2.3 million (5.8 percent [of total])

We’re even late on paying the interest on overdue bills?

Sheesh.

* Quad Cities Online has a handy tool for taking a look at Illinois’ list of overdue bills. The state has 166,002 overdue bills for about $4.9 billion, according to the site. I broke that down by amount owed out of curiosity.

There are, for instance, about 169,000 overdue bills on the books for less than a million dollars. Total all of them up, and you get $1.8 billion.

By contrast, there are 620 records of overdue bills exceeding a million dollars, for a total of about $3.1 billion. Using the SJ-R’s past due bills site, I discovered that almost a third of that $3.1 billion, about $1.4 billion, is owed to state agencies via interfund cash transfers. Here’s a list of the other top bills by vendor

REGIONAL TRANS AUTHORITY… $306,335,651.20
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS… $298,713,296.07
CHICAGO DIST 299… $245,231,291.81
TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM SPRINGFIELD… $180,810,081.30
STATE UNIVERSITIES RETIREMENT… $109,707,083.00
STATE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT SYST… $74,970,220.00
SIU CARBONDALE - PAYROLL CLEAR… $55,605,902.76
CHICAGO CITY TREASURER … $50,027,005.73
HELP AT HOME INC… $48,101,966.81

Help at Home, Inc. isn’t the only business on the bigtime past due bills list. Addus Healthcare is owed $34 million, for instance, and Harmony Health Plan of IL is owed more than $27 million.

* My point here is that perhaps the state could fashion a borrowing plan to pay off either the smaller bills, which are owed to a lot of not-for-profit service agencies and for-profit companies, or it could design a plan to provide immediate relief to all non-governmental entities. Yes, this would be unfair to the RTA, the U of I, etc., but these overdue bills are a significant drag on the Illinois economy.

Borrowing is not popular, to say the least, but a relatively small borrowing plan to pay off some of the state’s overdue bills coupled with some negotiated budget cuts could do wonders for thousands of Illinois businesses and help boost the economy.

Thoughts?

  50 Comments      


A seriously insane person makes online threats against entire Illinois GOP delegation

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Oy

Rep. Bobby Schilling is being asked to “lay low’’ after an online threat that offered a $75,000 reward for his assassination exploded across the Internet, a Quad Cities TV station reported late Wednesday.

The Colona Republican learned about the threat via a Google alert Tuesday night. It’s being investigated by Capitol police and the FBI, WQAD-TV reported.

“I’m supposed to kind of lay low, not really go out in public,” Schilling told the station.

The email states: ‘’I will pay $75,000 for ASSASSINATING Illinois Congresswoman (sic) Bobby Schilling and any US Congressman, US Senator and FBI, CIA and NSA DIRECTORS and their FAMILY MEMBERS regardless of their age.’’

Schilling said he’s been told that the California man making the threat has a history of this type of behavior.

‘’I’m pretty concerned. My wife is very concerned. It’s a general threat to all members of Congress, but they specifically called my name out in the threat,” he told the station.

By using that quote in the article, I was able to find similar online threats made by this nutball. The Schilling threat appears to have been deleted [UPDATE: Here it is], but there are others, including one against Congressman Joe Walsh, which has also been taken down.

* Most of the state’s Republican delegation has been threatened by this guy, using the same, exact message

I will pay $75,000 for ASSASSINATING Illinois Congresswoman Donald Manzullo
and any US Congressman, any US Senator and FBI, CIA and NSA
DIRECTORS and their FAMILY MEMBERS regardless of their age.

BOMB AMERICAN FEDERAL BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE and KILL FBI, CIA, DNI and
NSA DIRECTORS

I CHALLENGE all readers to email my THREAT to FBI, CIA, NSA and
Secret Service and get me arrested…….FBI TRANSVESTITES will NOT
arrest me because of this reason.

This is my profile at FBI, CIA and NSA
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.privacy/msg/6212b297461a5bc0?hl=en

You MORONS………just listen to me…….Everything mentioned in the
following document is REAL and FBI, CIA and NSA had this technology for more
than 20 years……..

TORTURE BIBLE of FBI, CIA and NSA
Covert Operations of NSA- Mind Control and Directed Energy Weapons
http://www.scribd.com/doc/25664429/Conspiracy-Mind-Control-Covert-Ope…

Congressmen Aaron Schock, John Shimkus and Tim Johnson have also been threatened the same way.

I doubt that any of the congressmen have much to worry about, but it’s unnerving that somebody like this is walking around free. Let’s be careful out there.

…Adding… More searches have turned up additional threats against the rest of the state’s GOP delegation. He’s also threatened lots of others.

  32 Comments      


The Green of Grid Modernization

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Much of the focus of electric grid modernization has been on jobs and consumer benefits. But did you know that Senate Bill 1652 is also a roadmap for a greener future for Illinois?

Here’s how.

SB 1652…

    1. Increases energy efficiency resources available to consumers.
    Today, energy efficiency programs save residential customers $95 million annually. SB 1652 will increase those programs by at least another 10 percent.

    2. Creates incentives for small-scale generation.
    Today, owners of small-scale solar generating systems are unable to bid their power back into the electric grid. SB 1652 changes this by carving out 1% of the existing 6% state solar requirement for small scale generation. This improves the economics for rooftop or other types of consumer-driven solar generation.

    3. Provides the platform necessary for the coming electric vehicle revolution.
    Widespread use of electric vehicles simply can’t happen without a modern electric infrastructure.

    4. Creates a Science and Energy Innovation Trust.
    SB 1652 requires the utilities to contribute $20 million for the creation of Science and Energy Innovation Trust, which supports green energy efficiency-based technology startup companies.


For more information on all the benefits of grid modernization through SB 1652, visit www.SmartEnergyIL.com.

  Comments Off      


Simon Institute begins rollout of annual poll

Thursday, Oct 20, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at SIU has some new statewide poll results. They poll every year. Let’s start with right track, wrong track

Fewer than one in five voters in the Simon Poll (19.2%) said they thought things in the country were going in the right direction, down significantly from the three in ten (30.2%) who said so in 2010.

Perception of the direction of the state may have bottomed out. Only 14.9% said Illinois was heading in the right direction, statistically equivalent with last year’s 12.2% “right direction” response.

Interesting that national right track has cratered here while state right track has risen ever so slightly. Back in 2008, for instance, the Institute’s poll showed state right track at 12.4 percent.

You might think the national right track decline could be the result of President Barack Obama’s decline. Obama’s Illinois job approval rating is 51.8 percent, essentially identical to his Illinois approval rating in the Institute’s poll a year ago. That’s pretty much the same as a We Ask America poll taken a few weeks ago.

* Gov. Pat Quinn’s approval rating is 35.5 percent. That’s more than 5 points higher than the recent We Ask America poll, which had him slightly below 30 percent, but still close enough to essentially validate both results. The Institute didn’t poll Quinn’s job approval last fall, so there’s no way to measure his change over time in this particular category. But 35.5 percent is about where everybody has had Quinn for well over a year. Quinn’s approval rating in the Institute’s October, 2009 poll was 66.5 percent.

* Now, as you know, I don’t usually do national stuff, but I thought you’d like to see the rest of these numbers. As always, do your very best to avoid bumper sticker slogans and, please, eschew regurgitated DC talking points in comments. Presidential head-to-heads

From the Institute

“You could look at this as being uncomfortably close for the president in his home state,” said Simon Institute Director David Yepsen. “On the other hand you could say Obama is holding up fairly well in Illinois, given the difficult year he has had politically and the continued poor performance of the economy.”

* Compare those results to a recent We Ask America poll and there are some differences

[Obama had] 50 percent vs. former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 35 percent. Other match-ups look similar: Obama 52 percent vs. Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s 30 percent; Obama 53 percent vs. businessman Herman Cain at 30 percent; and Obama 53 percent vs. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 34 percent.

The We Ask America poll was conducted September 28 and Oct. 2. The Simon Institute poll was conducted Oct. 11-16. The Institute’s poll has apparently captured the national Cain surge. However, the Institute’s poll has Obama doing worse against the Republicans than he WAA’s poll. He’s under 50 in all but one Institute poll, and over 50 against everybody in the WAA poll. Then again, the numbers are not hugely different, so we could be looking at noise and methodology differences here. WAA does robopolling, for instance, while the Institute uses humans.

* The Institute also asked Republicans which GOP candidate they preferred

Keep in mind that self-identified Republicans are a fairly small percentage in this state, so the margin of error is going to be quite high for that subset on a total polling universe of 1,000 registered voters.

* Also, in case anybody wants to know, the Simon Institute didn’t use taxpayer dollars to conduct this poll.

  29 Comments      


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