* How about a caption contest? This is Joe Walsh. No, not the freshman congressman. This is the Joe Walsh we all knew before last year’s election pushed that other Joe Walsh into our brains…
Do your very best to keep your answers Illinois-centric, please. Thanks.
Wednesday, Oct 19, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 has consumer protections like a 2.5% rate cap.”
SB1652: The cap applies to a customer’s entire bill (generally comprised of 70% energy costs and 30% delivery costs). With energy costs expected to decline over the next two years, ComEd and Ameren will have more room to increase the delivery charge and still remain under the cap. (Pages 101-103)
ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 does not guarantee utility profits.”
SB1652: The utilities’ profits are tied to an automatic formula that is based on 30-year Treasury bonds which are at historic lows. As Treasury bonds increase, so do ComEd and Ameren’s allowed profits. (Page 82)
ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 will create jobs.”
SB1652: ComEd and Ameren may charge ratepayers millions in severance costs for laying off workers. (Page 83)
ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 will hold the utilities accountable for their performance during extreme weather events.”
SB1652: ComEd and Ameren may each exclude 90 of the worst storms over the ten year program when calculating performance. (Page 97)
ComEd/Ameren: “SB1652 is about smart grid.”
SB1652: The utilities may recover money from ratepayers that has nothing to do with smart grid including executive bonuses, pension packages, workforce reduction costs, and storm expenses. (Pages 82-87).
A new survey shows that Americans overwhelmingly support the self-styled Occupy Wall Street protests that not only have disrupted life in Lower Manhattan but also in Washington and cities and towns across the U.S. and in other nations. Some 59 percent of adults either completely agree or mostly agree with the protesters, while 31 percent mostly disagree or completely disagree; 10 percent of those surveyed didn’t know or refused to answer.
What’s more, many people are paying attention to the rallies. Almost two-thirds of respondents–65 percent–said they’ve heard “a lot” or “some” about the rallies, while 35 percent have said they’ve heard or seen “not too much” or “nothing at all” about the demonstrations.
The results appear in the latest edition of the United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll.
Remarkably, nearly one-third of Republicans—31 percent—completely or mostly agree with their aims. The sour economy has sparked some class resentments in unexpected places, it seems.
The United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll is conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, which surveyed 1,007 adults by landline and cell phone on Oct. 13-16. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* This is from a newspaper op-ed in opposition to extending Sears’ tax breaks to keep it from moving its headquarters and 6,000 jobs to another state…
When government officials hand money to large employers while raising taxes on others, we do not have representative government. We have corporate statist government. And when government officials promise a future river of tax revenues to benefit everyone, and then keep tax revenues flowing to one politically connected corporation, we have corporate statist government that has lied to us.
So, who do you think wrote that piece? No fair peeking. Was it one of those Occupy Wall Street lefties? Nope. It was Steve Stanek from the Heartland Institute, which is about as far right as one can get and still receive grant funding.
* Both sides forcefully deny it, but two angry populist streams are definitely overlapping on a major issue. But, as is often the case in America, they’re all talking past each other and accentuating their ideological and partisan differences. Fox Chicago actually tried to force a convergence last night…
FOX Chicago News asked South Sider Catherina Wojtowicz, a founder of the Chicago Tea Patriots, to visit tonight’s Occupy demonstration and let us listen to her talk to the other side.
Among them were unemployed college graduate 20-somethings and an older, self-described “unemployed, Marxian-trained economist.”
The most fascinating exchange, by far, though, involved Larry Roberts, a middle-aged union electrician. He just walked up to us, not directly part of the protest, but very sympathetic to it.
“God bless ‘em. They’re sticking up for the working man and the people less fortunate. God bless ‘em,” said Roberts.
Wojtowicz said she thinks the “Occupy” protesters want to crush Wall Street, and can’t understand what their plan is after that. She does agree with some of their rhetoric, though.
Mr. Emanuel — asked what his top priority is for the Illinois Legislature’s fall veto session — answered that it’s helping CME Group and CBOE Holdings Inc. cut their state income-tax load. The session begins next week.
The firms now are treated “not exactly in a fair way, at least in their view,” he said, and as a result are threatening to move some operations out of town. The big trading firms have made Chicago “a worldwide leader” in the derivatives and options business, he said. “It’s important to us as a city and a state to maintain that leadership.”
Mr. Emanuel served on the board of a predecessor firm to CME several years ago.
Discuss.
* Related…
* New era close at McCormick Place as tentative union pact reached
* Survey: Many Occupy Wall Street protesters are unhappy Democrats who want more influence
* Gallup: Most Americans Uncertain About “Occupy Wall Street” Goals: Given Americans’ apparent lack of knowledge about the Occupy Wall Street movement, it is not surprising to find a minority of Americans describing themselves as supporters (26%) or opponents (19%) of the movement. A majority, 52%, say they are neither supporters nor opponents, with another 4% not having an opinion. Those closely following the news about the movement are more likely to describe themselves as supporters (38%) than opponents (24%). The percentage of supporters increases to 52% among those following the news “very closely.”
* ILGOP Chair: ‘Occupy Chicago’ Protesters should be in front of Mike Madigan’s Office
* Kirk: Occupy Chicago feels like ‘undisciplined, unfocused, unintellectual anger’
* Emanuel says he consulted on Occupy Chicago arrests
* A close associate of Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s told me once that hizzoner is at his most calm when things are going wrong. Emanuel’s most quiet, serene days during the recent campaign, my friend said, were when Emanuel was temporarily kicked off the ballot over residency issues. There was no screaming, no swearing no threats. His demeanor was “let’s find a way to work through this.”
Emanuel reacted the same way, I’m told, when Gov. Pat Quinn announced Monday that he was making huge new demands on gaming expansion which appear to kill the legislation in its tracks. So, nice words do not mean that the feud is over…
After months of political feuding with Gov. Pat Quinn over casino gambling, Mayor Rahm Emanuel on Tuesday changed his tune, saying he hoped to find “common ground” that would pave the way for a Chicago casino and a bonanza of local revenues.
One day after Quinn drew the line at five new casinos and ruled out slot machines at racetracks, O’Hare and Midway Airports and the Illinois State Fairgrounds, Emanuel said he had a “good conversation” with the governor and came away encouraged. He said a revised gambling bill could be introduced by Friday.
* Mayor Emanuel made those comments before Gov. Quinn had another press conference yesterday. Raw audio…
* If you listen to that audio, you’ll know that Quinn is solidly opposed to the most important (as far as finding the votes is concerned) aspects of the gaming expansion bill. Asked if there was any chance he could relent on slots at tracks, Quinn said…
“Casino gambling locations at racetracks. The racetracks want to become casino operations. That’s what they’re looking for. The proposal that the legislature came up with, it’s way too broad and expansive, it’s excessive, and it would convert the racetracks at Illinois into gambling casinos. They can call it whatever name want, I don’t think that’s a good idea… Statutes exist today that provide adequate support for horseracing and agricultural interests. Now, they just want more. They want the opportunity to have their racetrack become a casino. I don’t think that’s the way to go.”
* Asked if there was any circumstance in which he could sign a bill to allow slot machine at a racetrack venue, Quinn said…
“Well, no. I think I spoke about this issue yesterday. I think that’s not necessary… To allow oversaturation of gambling, namely converting the racetracks into casino gambling locations, I don’t think it’s healthy for Illinois and that’s why I didn’t support that.”
* Certainly, Quinn was told, he’s been around long enough to know that the lack of any kind of progress on gaming expansion was because the tracks and the casinos were not working together. And now that the tracks are getting what they needed and enough votes were found despite casino opposition, “Did you know that this was the poison pen in signaling your opposition to it?” a reporter asked. Quinn dodged the question…
“It cannot be some kind of bill that passes to appease every single lobbyist in Springfield.”
* Asked by another reporter if his demands were a poison pill, Quinn said…
“Everything I’ve done is designed to protect the public interest, to protect integrity. It’s not designed to just get a bill passed for its own sake. I don’t think that’s healthy for Illinois.
“You know, before I arrived there was too much done the old way, the political way. Do things whatever works for the politicians for the interest groups, the lobbyists. I don’t want to do it that way, I want to do it the right way, the people’s way.”
* The governor also took some Blagojevichian shots at the General Assembly…
“There are those in the Legislature who may have friends in this or that business. Well, they’re entitled to that friendship, but that isn’t going to be the policy of Illinois.” […]
“The Legislature I think was very sloppy when they passed a bill after two days of debate, on May 31st in a hasty way. And a lot of people who said, ‘Oh, sign that bill,’ never read it. We did. 499 pages, 409 pages. And a lot of the things in that bills had loopholes you could drive a truck through.
“And so we have to stop that. And that’s the job of a governor, to say ‘No, this is a bum bill, it won’t get approved by me and go back to the drawing board and come up with something better.’ And I gave an outline, a framework of how to do it. And I think it was a pretty good one and a lot of people have said that to me in the past 24 hours.
“I think we’re on the right track and I think some of our legislative leaders and political leaders need to pay attention to that.”
* If Mayor Emanuel and the sponsors can find a way to pass this bill without slots at tracks, or get a revised bill into law over the governor’s veto, then it’ll easily be one of the biggest legislative achievements of the past ten years. That’s how tough this task is. But the governor has repeatedly dismissed the idea of a trailer bill this week, so don’t count on this tactic working…
State Sen. Terry Link (D-Waukegan) said he and other legislative leaders may offer Gov. Quinn a new plan to expand gambling by the end of the week. Link said it likely would include “everything” Quinn requested in terms of anti-corruption safeguards, but it would still call for controversial slot machines at six horse racing tracks in the suburbs and Downstate. […]
Sen. Link said one possibility is that legislators could pass a second, “trailer bill,” effectively amending the already-approved Senate Bill 744. The goal would be accommodate some of Quinn’s demands. If the bargaining were successful, Quinn could then sign both bills into law.
Gambling interests gave $388,000 to candidates and officials in 2011, including $304,300 from racetracks, $68,516 from existing casinos, and $15,100 from other gambling interests. Top recipients include Chicago for Rahm Emanuel ($74,550), the Senate Democratic Victory Fund ($23,700), and Citizens to Elect Tom Cross ($23,050).
Keep in mind that the gaming industry is split into opposing camps. The existing casinos don’t want this expansion.
* Aside from the obvious personal issues, just about everything you need to know about the broad themes in the upcoming battle royale between freshmen Republican Congressmen Joe Walsh and Randy Hultgren are right here in this New York Times clip…
Then, there are Mr. Walsh’s political problems. Democrats in charge of the Illinois redistricting process have redrawn his district with boundaries overlapping that of Representative Randy Hultgren, a fellow Tea Party Republican. While the new map is being challenged in court, Mr. Walsh said that he was prepared to force Mr. Hultgren into a primary — and that he would be the clear favorite because Mr. Hultgren voted too often with party leaders.
“As a freshman you pick your poison,” Mr. Walsh said, “and maybe leadership is going to help him raise money or open some doors for him and in exchange for that he’s going to give them his vote.”
Mr. Hultgren, who has more than 15 years’ experience in state and local government, brushes off the accusations. “Using a leadership style that emulates Rod Blagojevich or Barack Obama, Joe likes to govern ineffectively though press releases, sound bites, political grandstanding, and name calling,” said his campaign spokesman, Andrew Flach. “He certainly does not lead by example.”
If the boundary challenge fails and the two freshmen lawmakers do face off, it will be in a district where much of the territory comes from Mr. Hultgren’s current district.
Mr. Walsh appeared to be a popular figure at a recent Tea Party convention in Schaumburg, part of his current district. When he stepped to the dais to deliver his luncheon address, the first thing he did was remove his suit jacket. “What’s unique with Joe Walsh is this,” he said, nearing the end of his speech. “You did nothing fancier, you did nothing more complicated, you did nothing more sophisticated than elect one of your own.”
Illinois’s 10th District, Rep. Robert Dold (R) vs. Democratic winner
Dold has always known his first reelection campaign would be a tough one: He’s a freshman running in a Chicago-area district during a presidential year, when local voters are expected to turn out in droves to support Obama, the city’s favorite son.
So Dold’s been stockpiling cash, which he’ll badly need in the country’s third-most-expensive media market. He enters the fall with almost $1 million in the bank, after raising $367,000 in the third quarter and more than $1.2 million for the cycle.
Brad Schneider, the Democratic front-runner in a multi-candidate primary, had a sub-par quarter with only $79,000 raised. But he’s been frugal in his campaign spending so far and entered the fall with a solid $417,000 in the bank.
Even Republicans acknowledge Dold will be vulnerable, blanketed by Democratic groups hoping to pick him off in a presidential year. But he has turned heads with his early fundraising.
“The fact remains that it’s an expensive media market, and Dold is the best fundraiser of the freshman class,” a top GOP operative said. “And if you’re going to beat Sen. [Mark] Kirk’s protégé in a district that Kirk would have won last year, you’re going to need a dump truck full of cash.”
It’s a bit amazing that Schneider is considered a frontrunner. But Democratic woes being what they are this year, a more well known candidate hasn’t emerged.
…Adding… As a commenter pointed out, the Politico writer was apparently unaware that the 10th is not a Chicago district.
* Related…
* Sweet: Congressional hopefuls stockpiling cash for March
* Republican players look to tap tea party activism
An electric rate hike proposal that triggered a shoving match between two state senators last spring could bring more legislative fisticuffs to the Capitol next week.
State Sen. Mike Jacobs, D-East Moline, said he thinks he’s convinced enough of his colleagues to vote in favor of overriding Gov. Pat Quinn’s veto of a proposal allowing Ameren and ComEd to boost electric rates in exchange for them paying for upgrades to an aging electric grid.
In all, Jacobs needs five lawmakers to change their votes from “no” to “yes.” […]
In the House, four members would have to change their votes to “yes” in order for Quinn’s veto to be nullified. Some lawmakers want to see follow-up legislation that would add additional layers of protections for consumers before they decide how they are going to vote.
* Methinks this development, if true, had more to do with lobbyists than the Senate sponsor. Campaign contributions probably didn’t hurt, either…
Illinois’ two largest utility providers have given $116,400 to the campaign warchests of lawmakers just weeks before the Legislature is expected to address a contentious rate-hike veto.
Gov. Pat Quinn vetoed legislation last month that would have allowed Commonwealth Edison Co. and Ameren to charge customers more to pay for statewide infrastructure upgrades. Under this proposal, Commonwealth Edison Co. customers would have seen their bill jump by $36 a year and Ameren customers by $40 more annually. […]
Commonwealth Edison Co. and its parent company, Exelon, and Ameren have donated to 38 legislators since Quinn’s veto Sept. 12, according to Illinois State Board of Election records.
* The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform has tallied over $900K from Smart Grid proponents this year…
The Smart Grid proposal would change the way that electricity rates are set, allowing companies like Commonwealth Edison and Ameren to charge more to upgrade the transmission system. Electric companies have given $939,680 to officials, candidates, and political parties in 2011. Top donors are Ameren, affiliated companies and employees ($399,188); Commonwealth Edison, its parent company Exelon, related companies and employees ($262,422); and Midwest Generation ($93,450). Top recipients are the Senate Democratic Victory Committee ($89,750), Citizens to Elect Tom Cross ($62,500), and the House Democratic Majority ($45,100).
*** UPDATE *** From a Teachers Retirement System press release…
The video’s script does not accurately describe the finances of Teachers’ Retirement System. TRS is not going broke and will have enough money to pay pensions for decades.
· The video’s script says: “This is how much money we have in the fund,” and a graphic showing “$31 billion” pops up.
o That number reflects the assets held by TRS last year. The current assets, thanks to a 24 percent return on investment for fiscal year 2011, total $37.5 billion.
· The script says: “This is how much we need to pay our current retirees.” A graphic of “$49 billion” pops up.
o This is an incomplete statement. What’s not said is that the $49 billion is the estimate of what’s needed to pay “current retirees” every year for the next 30 years. The actual cost of teacher pensions this year is $4.5 billion.
· The script then says: “This is how much we need to pay people like you.” A graphic of “$27 billion” pops up.
o Again, what’s not said is that this number reflects a 30-year estimate for teachers who are not even eligible for a benefit.
· The script barely mentions current revenues collected by TRS. Over the last two years, TRS revenue totaled $17.3 billion, from teachers, school districts, state government and investments. TRS benefit checks in the last two years totaled $8 billion.
· TRS currently carries an unfunded liability of $44 billion, but this is a number that never comes due at one point in time because only current retirees are eligible to be paid. TRS has carried an unfunded liability since at least 1953 and has never missed a pension check.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* IllinoisIsBroke.com has a new TV ad. It started last night on Chicago network and is also running on cable. It’ll play through the start of veto session. Rate it…
* The Tribune editorial board is all in with this theme, of course.
* By the way, the FiveThirtyEight blog had a pretty good two-part series on understanding how campaign ads work. The above spot is not a campaign ad, but let’s have a look at the piece anyway. This is from Part 1…
2. Campaign ads matter more when a candidate can outspend the opponent.
This simple fact sometimes gets lost because people fixate on the content of ads. But the volume of ads may matter more. Consider the 2000 presidential election. In the final two weeks of the campaign, residents in battleground state were twice as likely to see a Bush ad as a Gore ad. This cost Gore 4 points among uncommitted voters.
The same thing happened in 2008, when Mr. Obama vastly outspent his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain. According to some research, in counties where Mr. Obama broadcast 2,000 more ads than Mr. McCain, he received about 1 percentage point more of the vote than John Kerry did in those same counties in 2004. (That a difference of 2,000 ads only appeared to earn Mr. Obama a single point is a testament to the limits of campaign advertising when most voters already have opinions about the candidates.)
Of course, disparities like those between Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush, or Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, do not come along in every presidential race. If Mr. Obama and the Republican nominee decline public financing in 2012, expect fewer disparities. But the ultimate point is this: if the 2012 race is close, do not pay attention to every subtle or even subliminal message in the ads. Just look to see who is spending more. Spending more does not guarantee a victory, but it is more revealing than endless speculation about whose message is more effective.
