Today’s chart
Friday, Jan 6, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Nate Silver at 538…
He explains…
The chart, culled from exit poll data, shows the ideological disposition of those people who voted Republican for the House of Representatives in the elections of 1984 through 2010. Until fairly recently, about half of the people who voted Republican for Congress (not all of whom are registered Republicans) identified themselves as conservative, and the other half as moderate or, less commonly, liberal. But lately the ratio has been skewing: in [2010’s] elections, 67 percent of those who voted Republican said they were conservative, up from 58 percent two years earlier and 48 percent ten years ago.
Silver says this is about changing turnout, but it could also be about changing attitudes of Republican voters. Either way, discuss.
[Hat tip: Sully]
- Dirty Red - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:12 am:
Interesting concept. I think it really shows the Republican hard-right shift over the last decade. Check out how the number of conservatives spikes from 2000 on while moderates slowly drift away.
- RMWStanford - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:18 am:
Interesting graph, would be interesting to see one of the Democrat side and one of the General populace to and their political self-identification. To see how many moderates have moved away or if some of it has been people changing their political identification.
- Tom B. - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:27 am:
This is exactly why you see people like Mitt Romney have such a problem. When you have to constantly run for office and the electorate shifts, you have to make a decision: stick with your core convictions and tell people, “I am who I am and you elected me to do what’s best, not always what you want,” or, like Romney, you cave on your earlier stances and go with what’s popular these days.
Reformers, campaign finance experts, and editorial boards conveniently forget that politicians mightily strive to represent what their constituents want. Our politicians are hyper partisan because we’re in a hyper partisan age. That seems to be because 1. people are breaking away from regional coalitions 2. Parties have lost their strength to discipline (Thanks campaign finance people) and most importantly 3. there is no middle that stands up to pick winners and losers — in the electorate and the body politic.
The breakdown of traditional media and their ability to sort out extremity has been an accelerant to this process. I have great hope that new media and new ways of reaching people will tamp this down, but we’re in for a bumpy ride until then.
- Anonimo - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:28 am:
The GOP oversold itself on the ability of its base turning out to win election. In 2010 we had an overall low turnout and that meant that the GOP base could capture a majority in the House. In 2012 we’ll see an increased turnout and the GOP will lose terribly.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:31 am:
I’d be curious if there is any meaningful definition today as to what is a “conservative.” There seems to be some disagreement about that in GOP circles.
For example, Ronald Reagan is the revered “conservative” president.
Yet he pushed amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants, raised taxes at least ten times after his 1981 tax cuts, ran then-record budget deficits throughout his tenure, slapped domestic content restrictions on Japanese automaters (and virtually banned Japanese motorcyles, thereby saving Harley-Davidson) and offered to give the Soviets Star Wars technology in exchange for both countries eliminating all of their nuclear weapons.
He also voted for FDR four times.
Was he a conservative?
- Stones - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:34 am:
Wordslinger, you make a very valid point. Ronald Regan is the name most “conservatives” like to toss about but many of his positions would not pass muster with the right wing today. Does anyone venture a guess as to how Regan would view the Patriot Act?
- RMWStanford - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:35 am:
How people define themselves political can change over time, it would be interesting to see how much of this is moderates leaving the Republican party and how much is people changing how they identify themselves.
- train111 - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:47 am:
Interestingly if one looks at the trend of voting in Illinois elections and for most downstate counties label the red line Republican and the purple line Democratic–then for Cook County label the red line Democratic and the purple line Republican, it is frightenly close to the shift in voting patterns in the various areas of the state.
train111
- Skeeter - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:49 am:
RMW makes an excellent point. Is the GOP moving, or are people just changing their labels? If more people are calling themselves conservative, that is probably good for the GOP. However, if moderates are leaving the GOP, that’s pretty bad.
- Amuzing Myself - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 9:54 am:
I think Wordslinger makes a good initial point, although bringing up Reagan voting for FDR four times before he became a Republican seems to be unnecessarily reaching.
I consider myself a conservative - primarily because I believe in the government having less money to waste by keeping taxes and spending as low as possible. A free market, low regulation and protecting law-abiding regular people that enjoy hunting and shooting guns - even for fun (GASP) - are more important to me than a candidates stand on a particular social issue like abortion and/or gay rights.
I tend to like the idea of conservative judges, but that’s more based on their record as being as close to strict constitutionalists that will not legislate from the bench than where they stand or have stood on abortion and gay rights.
So, while I may consider myself pro-life and a believer in traditional marriage, those issues have minimal - if any - impact on how I vote for any particular politician - even in a primary. I’m more concerned with fiscal conservatism, 2nd amendment rights and accountability and I consider myself a strong conservative. Many of us want someone we BELIEVE as much as anything else. That’s where Romney is having a problem. Even if I didn’t have an issue with a couple of his actions in career, I don’t feel like I can trust him. For me, it has NOTHING to do with whether or not he’s a “moderate”. He’s been all over the place in his career, and that is a fact he’s having to deal with now.
Reagan broke the “Country-Club, Rockefeller” Republican hold on the establishment by his strong hawkish foreign policy views, his cowboy image and his general tendency to say what he meant, regardless of what the “powers that be” may have thought. I think that’s the Reagan draw, and his ability to attract middle-class, blue-collar voters as well as the wealthy. “Government isn’t the solution to our problems; Government IS the problem.” Fundamental political philosophy that connected with Americans then, and that’s what many Reagan fans love most about him still.
- PublicServant - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 10:02 am:
@Skeeter - I’m pretty sure it’s the later, but RMW is right in pointing out that the study doesn’t isolate those variables.
- Then again... - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 10:48 am:
To follow the rest, I think wordslinger has a point here.
Because this is all self-identification, what’s really important is what the words mean to those responding. Over the last few years, I think “conservative” has been used by many right-leaning individuals as a way to express their ideology without tying themselves completely to the GOP. Many fiscal and foreign policy hawks use the term to keep distance from the GOP’s social bigotry, its free-wheeling spending, or just the two party system in general. “Conservatism” has become a home for many who find “Republicanism” inadequate, many times because of extremism in places.
Even though the question here isn’t between conservative or republican, “conservative” has become a very strong identifier for many.
Most of us would consider these people “moderates,” but that’s not the way they show up in the poll.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 10:55 am:
–Even though the question here isn’t between conservative or republican, “conservative” has become a very strong identifier for many.
Most of us would consider these people “moderates,” but that’s not the way they show up in the poll.–
That certainly wasn’t my point. I think the identifier “conservative” has been hijacked to an extent by those pushing a radical agenda that would have been anathema to Ronald Reagan or Barry Goldwater.
- reformer - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 11:05 am:
This chart is consistent with the observation that the GOP has moved to the right during the last decade.
Immigration is an example of the shift to the right. While Bush and McCain (in ‘07) favored comprehensive immigration reform, there’s nary a Republican congressman today who would vote for the McCain-Kennedy bill.
- Retired Non-Union Guy - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 11:08 am:
Over time, both the labels, the people and the parties have changed.
I tend to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal … probably has something to do with being raised Catholic
I haven’t really changed my positions much the last 40 years.
Anyway, as the terms are known today: 40 years ago I was a Democrat. 30 years ago I was mostly a Republican even though I remember a vote for John Anderson. 20 years ago I was probably an Independent; I know I voted for Perot the first time. 10 Years ago I would have been considered a Libertarian. These days, who knows?
- It's easy to point your finger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 11:39 am:
I’m sure it has nothing to do with the split of initial opinion on the war and the extreme partisan divide that followed. I remember one party demonizing the war in Iraq, then they won the House, Senate and Presidency and had two years to pass anything they wanted in a super unified government. That probably didn’t influence the fact that the GOP decided to revert back and “stick to their guns”.
It is a reaction to progressive policies passed by both parties. GW was not a conservative. Not by a long shot.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 11:45 am:
–It is a reaction to progressive policies passed by both parties. GW was not a conservative. Not by a long shot.–
LOL, do you mean GW Bush or George Washington?
See what I mean, though, about the hijacking of the word conservative? In some minds, Pres. Bush cannot call himself a conservative, while “progressive” is a dirty word.
Who’s today’s leading “conservative,” Finger Pointer, in your righteous opinion?
- It's easy to point your finger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:05 pm:
Wordslinger- Do I really need to clarify whether I was talking about George Washington or George W. Bush?
I certainly don’t believe George W. Bush was a conservative and I definitely did not call progressive a bad word. I was simply trying to help some understand why there was an ideology shift right in those voting republican. It was a reactionary shift to policies, the economy and prior election results taking place during the first decade of the 21st century.
If you want me to fall into your trap of who I think is a “leading conservative” so you can bash their voting record or their belief system, then you are barking up the wrong tree. Good day buddy.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:08 pm:
===I certainly don’t believe George W. Bush was a conservative===
It’s amazing to me how many people on the Right have said this since GWB left office. Yet, almost all of them voted for him twice. Weird, that.
- It's easy to point your finger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:19 pm:
Who were they supposed to vote for? John Kerry? Ralph Nader? Michael Badnarik? Or should they have just not voted?
- mokenavince - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:32 pm:
As the population ages it tends to be more conservative.Now our country is run by the
far left and the far right, I think about
70% of the country are happy somewhere in the
middle. We will be there soon.
- Bill Baar - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:37 pm:
Rather than Conservatives and Liberals, it would be nice to see the change between Libertarians, and Collectivists (or some other less loaded word to describe those of us not Libertarians). I think Libertarianism has been the real winner under the current Administration, and best describes the reaction against it including the TP which has never struck be as social-conservative.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:38 pm:
===Who were they supposed to vote for?===
Fair point. I’ll amend it to say most of them actively and enthusiastically supported his candidacies.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:45 pm:
–If you want me to fall into your trap of who I think is a “leading conservative” so you can bash their voting record or their belief system, then you are barking up the wrong tree.–
No barking here. But since you are the judge of who is not a conservative, educate us on who is. Or is it a secret?
- It's easy to point your finger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:47 pm:
Edmund Burke
- steve schnorf - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:54 pm:
To some, if you can’t believe the earth is less than 10,000 years old, you can’t be a “real” Republican. To others, if you don’t want to terminate the central bank and/or go back to the gold standard, you aren’t a real R. Others still demand that you believe life begins at conception and oppose abortion under any and all circumstances.
To others still, you must distrust the black and object to the innate laziness of the brown. Still others require that you see gays and lesbians as psychologically ill. I don’t know if you still have to hate communists, but you certainly have to pray for the restoration of rightful rule in Cuba, esp. if you are a Florida R.
To many, a Jewish R would be very suspect, and only welcome at the Country Club because of those liberal, activist federal judges. And Roman Catholics, Papists, only my good manners keep me from going there.
I could go on, but some of this is sounding eerily like the turn of the (20th) century Klan, so I think I’ll stop. My real point is we’re a very mixed bag, we Republicans, and to some the rules for being one of us are pretty stringent (and sometimes fairly wacky), but we struggle on. We may have to resurrect one of our earlier mottoes, “Bold new leadership for the (19)50s”.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 12:55 pm:
–Edmund Burke–
LOL, yeah, he’s been running that Finance Committee for a long time.
- Bill Baar - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 1:02 pm:
Without getting too geeky, remember the bell curve has a median with half on one side, and half on the other. I think that median has shifted to a Libertarian flavor of Conservatism while that leftish tail firmly nailed on the left. The liberals decreasing, the moderates shifting right along with that Median, and the whole electorate skewing Libertarian-Right. It looks like increasing polarization if your a Progressive sitting way out there on that left-tail, but for a good deal of the rest of the electorate, the country is shifting and Liberalism’s left out. Again though, it’s a redefinition of Conservative as Libertarian (I attribute that to the TP and a pretty rigorous self discipline to stay focused on fiscal rather than social issues) that’s moved the distribution. That’s a real achievement for a party without central leadership. It looks lasting to me too, and 2012 will tell.
- steve schnorf - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 2:25 pm:
Well, many people who are truly moderate aren’t real comfortable associating themselves with many of the beliefs noted above. Now, those so believing don’t constitute a large percentage of the people voting R in a general election, but they are a significant and growing percent of those voting in R primaries. Ergo, nominees who face great difficulty come November.
Anyway, moderates are going to be a shrinking percentage of self-identified Rs, at least for a while longer, and I think it is issues not semantics causing it.
- DuPage Moderate 1 - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 3:45 pm:
I’ve been saying for some time that I used to consider myself Republican and Catholic, and both my church and my party have left me stranded. They have moved so far to the right I no longer can agree with their ideology (or their practices!), but I’m equally offended by the far left. I’m a genuine centrist, but there is no real political home for centrists — and that used to be where the real decisions got made. Now, we’re getting no thing accomplished amid all the posturing.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 3:58 pm:
Nate is correct…this is about changing turnout.
According to Gallup, there was a slight increase in Americans self-identifying as “conservative” following Obama’s election.
But the % of Americans who identify as “Moderate” remained steady from ‘91 - ‘04 at 40%.
Now Moderates down to 35%, but they’ve split evenly between Liberal and Conservative.
Basically, we’ve seen increased polarization since the ‘04 elections/War, and that polarization is reflected heavily in the GOP primaries.
I don’t think we’ve seen the same phenomenon in Democratic Primaries, even though people who identify as liberal is up 3% to 21%…but it would be interesting if Nate provided some side-by-side.
- Then again... - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 4:17 pm:
Word, I only meant to agree with you that “conservative” isn’t exactly consistently defined over the last 25 years and it’s hard to take anything away from this poll until we decide exactly what “conservative” means to those involved.
- Segatari - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 4:36 pm:
There’s your proof the state GOP needs to EMBRACE conservativism and stop this ungodly paranoia of another Goldwater defeat. The establishment foolishly thinks they’ll win by getting all their votes from the 33% that aren’t conservative and chuck that large majority 67% out of the window saying we don’t need you? How politically suicidal are they?
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 6, 12 @ 4:52 pm:
Segatari, you can’t win Illinois on Republican votes alone.