* Democratic congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth has released a poll showing her with a commanding 59-17 lead over her primary opponent, Raja Krishnamoorthi. From the pollster…
Duckworth enjoys 83% name identification with 67% of the electorate rating her favorably and just 7% evaluating her unfavorably. This glowing assessment is enviable for any candidate but for one in the expensive Chicago media market, it is literally worth millions.
She leads former Illinois Deputy treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi 59% to 17%. She holds a three-to-one margin with key constituencies: voters who say the will “definitely vote,” voters who voted in at least two Democratic primaries out of the last four, voters age 50 and older, liberals and pro-choice voters.
In addition to her solid vote support, Duckworth is also the choice of 65% of likely voters when asked who has the best chance to beat Joe Walsh in November. Just 13% opt for Krishnamoorthi.
After positives messages from both candidates are simulated, Duckworth maintains her 59% support while Krishnamoorthi is able to climb to just 23%. So while we expect the race to tighten somewhat as Krishnamoorthi communicates his message to voters he neither gains significant traction among undecided voters nor is able to cut into Duckworth’s support. It should be noted that this informed vote is nearly identical to the informed vote from our July poll, which showed Duckworth ahead 60% to 21%.
As veteran strategist David Axelrod said, “I have never seen anyone overcome a 42-point deficit this late in the race.”
Normington Petts did the poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters. The poll was conducted January 10-12 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
* Meanwhile, for whatever reason, the House Majority PAC either didn’t test or is not releasing head-to-head November matchups in the same congressional district against Republican Joe Walsh. Politico has a bit on the PAC’s latest polling…
32% say Rep. Joe Walsh deserves reelection, his approval rating sits at just 28 percent. While there are two Democrats in the race against Walsh, PPP tested a generic opponent. Walsh trails the generic Democrat 49 percent to 35 percent.
From the PAC’s press release…
In Illinois’ 8th Congressional District, only 32% of voters think Congressman Joe Walsh deserves to be reelected, while 57% think it’s time for someone new. Congressional Republicans have a 30/57 favorability rating and only 28% of voters approve of Walsh’s job performance while 44% disapprove. Walsh trails a generic Democratic opponent 49-35 and may be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country. […]
Public Policy Polling conducted this survey on behalf of House Majority PAC between January 21st and 22nd. In IL-8 500 registered voters were interviewed with a margin of error of +/-4.4%.T
…Adding… Joe Walsh now has no Republican primary opponents…
U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh of McHenry no longer has to worry about the primary election March 20 after both of his Republican challengers were removed from the ballot by the Illinois Board of Elections Tuesday.
Each of the candidates, Richard Evans and Robert Canfield, was more than 100 petition signatures short of the minimum 600 valid signatures required to run in the 8th District Republican primary, the board ruled.
*** UPDATE *** From the Krishnamoorthi campaign…
“This campaign has barely begun. If polls two months out predicted elections, Hillary Clinton would be the President, and Rick Perry would be the Republican nominee. Leaders in our district have overwhelmingly endorsed Raja as their choice and I’m confident that when voters get the chance to hear from both candidates, they’ll make Raja their nominee. Raja is the only candidate in this race with the economic experience and a detailed plan to turn our economy around by helping to create jobs for the middle class.” – Mike Murray, Deputy Campaign Manager
Mike Murray, of course, is a former Capitol Fax intern. Just thought I’d remind you again. I won’t be doing that every time I post on this race because Mike knows he’s in for the normal treatment. Still, it never hurts to remind y’all every once in a while.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 2:18 pm:
I just saw a video of MSNBC host Martin Bashir interviewing Walsh about alleged child support delinquency. Mr. Bashir mentioned that there is a bill proposal in Illinois that would forbid people owing more than $10,000 in child support from running for office.
- Left Out - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 2:21 pm:
Joe Walsh is an embarrassment to Illinois and the 8th Congressional District.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 2:26 pm:
Left Out, let’s leave the bumper sticker slogans out of the blog, please. Thanks.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 2:26 pm:
Not sure on the particulars of that bill Mr. Bashir mentioned, but I would think it would have to be a constitutional amendment to affect Illinois general assembly or constitutional officer qualifications, and would have no effect whatsoever on qualifications for federal office.
- reformer - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 3:03 pm:
It’s saying something to call Walsh “the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country.” He may come to regret his decision to take on Tammy in the 8th instead of Randy in the 14th.
- mark walker - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 3:17 pm:
I remain convinced that Walsh was pushed by the national GOP to the 8th, knowing he would likely lose either way, but guaranteeing the drain of substantial Dem money away from other races.
- JL - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 3:30 pm:
Grandson of Man:
Check out HB 3932, it is not exactly a ban, but is in direct response to Walsh’s problems.
http://ilga.gov/legislation/BillStatus.asp?DocNum=3932&GAID=11&DocTypeID=HB&LegId=62760&SessionID=84&GA=97
- Cassandra - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 3:33 pm:
They’re really both such great candidates. It’s too bad we can’t elect both of them. I’m a Raja supporter but I’m not sure this was the race to enter.
- hammer - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 3:48 pm:
I don’t want to believe 59-17. I don’t want to. Those are two quality candidates for elected office
- Shore - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 3:58 pm:
I don’t really see where Mr.Krishnamoorthi goes here. We’ve seen twice in two cycles in the northern suburbs where people like footlik and hamos faced a similar situation to the one krisnamoorthi finds himself in now-down by 30-40 pts against a former congressional challenger. In both cases they raised enough $ to be competitive but went absolutely nowhere and I don’t really see where Krishnamoorthi is going to turn this race around by that much. Duckworth has passed background checks for positions in dc and springfield so I am not sure there’s game changing opposition research out there and it doesn’t sound like he has moveon or teaparty type grassroots organization that can help him spring an upset.
If Walsh gets blown out badly in the fall in part because of his behavior I will wonder if he’ll wake up a year from now and regret some of his antics.
- Mike Murray - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 4:04 pm:
@Cassandra
Raja entered the race, locked up a lot of local support, and raised over $400,000. Then 2 months later, Duckworth entered the race. Just FYI
(Also, Rich, this post was made in my personal capacity. So don’t do an update 2X LOL. Anyways, back to the grind…)
- anonymous campaign staffer - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 4:22 pm:
@shore
The difference is the demographics of the district. From voting history (thank you votebuilder)predicted turnout for 8th district primary is between 30,000 and 40,000 people. Of these voters, only 1,000 are South Asian.
There are over 21,000 registered South Asians in the 8th district and thousands more unregistered South Asians. (IL-8 is the highest concentration of South Asians of any U.S. congressional district.)
So as in all elections, its not the polls that matter, it is all about who turns up at the polls.
That said, polling in your favor is always nice to have.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 4:25 pm:
Thanks, JL, for the link. I see what you mean. Candidates simply would have to declare that they are not in arrearage, in my understanding, plus they would not be able to serve on boards, committees, etc.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 4:31 pm:
Not committees–they won’t be able to participate in commissions. Sorry, my bad.
- WizzardOfOzzie - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 5:11 pm:
Very impressive numbers from Tammy, especially considering she can in an almost entirely different district in 2006.
The best advice I can give Raja’s campaign is don’t burn any bridges. He’s demonstrated a capacity to fund raise and is likeable. It would be a shame for him to spend that $1M on negative ads and upset people who can be helpful in the future. Remember, AKPD worked for him during the primary.
- Mike Murray - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 5:15 pm:
@ WizzardOfOZzie
55% of new 8th is comprised of old 6th, where Tammy Ran in 2006
- Bill - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 5:23 pm:
No offense, Mike, but Tammy was prevented by federal law from declaring until after she was no longer Ass’t Sec in the Obama administration. Everyone knew she was going to run including Raja but he declared early anyway. Real nice.
- Nice Kid - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 6:00 pm:
I think if I were Raja, I would pursue other options. He really never had a chance once she got in the race, and I am not sure why anyone would think otherwise.
- Robert - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 6:04 pm:
It is still early in the campaign mail season, and nobody works harder than Raja.
Sorta funny admission from the Duckworth pollster: “we expect the race to tighten somewhat as Krishnamoorthi communicates his message to voters”
- Mike Murray - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 6:50 pm:
@Bill - It is not like her appointment ended. She resigned. She could have resigned sooner. Or she could have ran in the 10th.
@Nice Kid - People said the same thing to Obama about taking on Hillary. I am not blindly optimistic. We could lose, but we could also win. That is what is great about democracy.
- Pete Giangreco - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 6:57 pm:
Hillary Clinton announced for president before Barack Obama did, so by your logic, Mike, Barack should not have run for president. When you say “Raja was here first” you belittle your candidate.
- reformer - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 7:01 pm:
If Walsh gets buried by Tammy, as appears likely, he may hurt GOP legislative candidates just below him on the ballot who are hoping to defeat Democratic incumbents (Kotowski and Mussman). Tough luck!
- anybody but walsh - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 7:36 pm:
Pete, I believe he was simply responding to cassandra who said she was a raja supporter but wasn’t sure this was the race to enter. I didn’t read his comment as saying duckworth shouldn’t have entered the race.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 8:07 pm:
That brief exchange between Mike and Giangreco is one of the things I love about so much about this blog.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, Ratdog is streaming a live show right now and it’s great… http://www.tristudios.com/freeplayer/watch/broadcast/35
- NoDogInTheFight - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 8:10 pm:
Pete, I think putting word’s in Mike’s mouth is kind of embarrassing for a consultant on the campaign of a candidate winning by 40 points.
Long time blog readers know Mike actually says enough things that you can go after him on, so there is no reason to make things up.
Obviously, Duckworth is in the driver’s seat, and unless something major happens I can’t see there being an upset.
- amalia - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 8:11 pm:
ah, we finally have a good show in town! and it’s playing on this blog. hilarious.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 8:16 pm:
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- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 25, 12 @ 8:57 pm:
Our captain fell in love
with a lady like a dove
and he called her by name, Pretty Peggy-O.