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Putting words in Michelle Obama’s mouth

Tuesday, Jan 10, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A couple of days ago, Lynne Sweet excerpted a passage from a new book about the Obama White House written by New York Times reporter Jodi Kantor...

…[Michelle Obama] particularly resented the way power in Illinois was locked up generation after generation by a small group of families, all white Irish Catholic — the Daleys in Chicago, the Hynes and Madigans statewide.

* Drudge and others have been having a field day by taking the comment out of context in order to once again make Michelle Obama look like a white-hater…

* I Googled a bit and discovered that Media Matters quotes the entire passage from Kantor’s book

She particularly resented the way power in Illinois was locked up generation after generation by a small group of families, all white Irish Catholic — the Daleys of Chicago, the Hyneses and Madigans statewide. “Someone doesn’t have the right to be elected because of whose womb they came out of,” she would say a few years later to Dan Shomon, her husband’s political advisor. “You shouldn’t have a better chance if you’re a Kennedy than if you’re an Obama. Why is it that they have the right to this?”

* I’ve known Dan Shomon since he was a UPI reporter, so I asked him if Michelle Obama had ever said anything like “white, Irish Catholics,” or if those words were added by the author. Shomon’s response…

I never said White Irish Catholics or specifically referenced the Daleys. Nor did Michelle Obama.

Michelle raised the concern, which a lot of Chicagoans shared, that it was much easier to run for office in Chicago if you were from a political family.

What about the Madigans, et al, I asked. Shomon’s response…

Nope. It was a general comment.

In other words, a bunch of hype over nothing.

* Also, Kantor utterly fails to mention that white Irish Catholics aren’t the only ones with dynasties in Illinois politics. The Jacksons have one going. And anyone named “Collins” on the West Side has had an advantage for years. Then there’s the Berrios family. For whatever reason in Illinois, and particularly in Cook County, names mean a lot. Just look at the number of people who’ve changed their names to make them more Irish-sounding when they ran for judge.

…Adding… Also, as a commenter rightly points out, the Stroger family, the Steele family and the Jones family all have (or had) the dynasty thing going. Kantor’s passage is just goofy.

* Meanwhile, in other Illinois-related DC news, I hadn’t noticed these developments because I’m really not keeping track

On the last day to submit paperwork, Santorum filed only 41 candidates for national convention nominating delegates out of 54 possible slots among the state’s new 18 congressional districts. Perry, the Texas governor, filed only one delegate candidate. Romney, Paul and Gingrich filed full elected-delegate slates.

Not making the ballot or filing delegate candidates was former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has made a strong showing in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary a priority.

  27 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Jan 10, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It’s kind of a slow news day today, so let’s have a little fun. From the Old Town School of Folk Music’s ribbon cutting ceremony for its new facility. Pictured left to right are Bau Graves, Mayor Rahm Emanuel, State Rep. Greg Harris, Chairman of Old Town Board of Directors Meredith Mack, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Ald. Ameya Pawar and State Sen. Heather Steans…

* The Question: Caption?

  50 Comments      


Campaign Updates: Manzullo; Raja-Duckworth; Walsh; Nugent

Tuesday, Jan 10, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Congressman Don Manzullo is doing his very best to use his incumbency and experience as an advantage oer Republican primary challenger and freshman Congressman Adam Kinzinger, including holding out the possibility that he is in line for a plum committee assignment, according to Chuck Sweeny

I asked Kinzinger, a freshman on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, why voters should choose him over Manzullo, who has 19 years of experience, including six years chairing the Small Business Subcommittee. Manzullo has a reputation as a relentless fighter for U.S. manufacturing.

“Don is going for his 21st year in Congress. He’s been a committee chairman, and usually after you’re a committee chairman you’re kind of in the wind-down part of that session,” Kinzinger said. “He’s maybe going to be there for another two or four years.”

But Rich Carter, Manzullo’s spokesman, said that should he win re-election, the veteran representative may become Foreign Affairs Committee chairman in the next Congress.

* Manzullo is also attempting to “prove” that he is by far the more conservative candidate in the primary. From a press release

An analysis of Congressional votes shows that U.S. Rep. Don Manzullo (R-16) continued his strong conservative record of voting against wasteful Washington spending in 2011 while his opponent voted much more often for big government.

Manzullo, who maintains a lifetime 96 percent rating with the American Conservative Union, voted 79 more times to cut spending in 2011 than Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-11), who says he came to Washington in 2010 to cut spending. An analysis of all 949 roll call votes cast in 2011 shows Kinzinger voted to spend $209 billion more than Manzullo. Click here to view the full analysis. […]

Manzullo was recently endorsed by the Illinois Conservatives, a statewide organization of about 4,000 young conservatives under 35. He was endorsed last month by Family PAC-Federal, Illinois’ leading pro-family political action committee, and he is consistently recognized for his efforts to cut wasteful spending by many national conservative organizations.

Heritage Action, the sister organization of the conservative Heritage Foundation, shows a wide disparity in conservative rating in its Legislative Scorecard, with Manzullo receiving an 83 percent rating and Kinzinger receiving a 60 percent rating.

By the way, I checked the Illinois Conservatives’ Facebook page and website the other day and couldn’t find any explanation for how the endorsement was made. I was told by the leader of the group that ten board members took a vote.

* In other campaign news, the Illinois AFL-CIO decided today not to make an endorsement in the Democratic primary race between Tammy Duckworth and Raja Krishnamoorthi, according to the Krishnamoorthi campaign, who say they fell just a couple of votes shy of the nod. The Krishnamoorthi folks are portraying this endorsement fight as a national vs. local contest, and are basically saying that their local supporters were able to keep DC labor leaders from handing the nod to Duckworth.

* Indeed, the SEIU Illinois Council endorsed Democrat Duckworth’s congressional bid just this week

“The SEIU Illinois Council is proud to endorse Tammy Duckworth as the next Congresswoman from the 8th Congressional District and looks forward to working with her in advancing President Obama’s agenda for working families,” said Tom Balanoff, president of the SEIU Illinois Council.

“To have the endorsement of the SEIU Illinois Council is so significant and I am honored by it,” Duckworth said in response to the endorsement. “I look forward to working with SEIU to provide a better life for working families.”

Duckworth is running against Raja Krishnamoorthi for the Democratic nomination in the 8th congressional district. Krishnamoorthi announced the endorsement of State Sen. Michael Noland (D-22) of Elgin earlier today as well.

Duckworth was also endorsed today by Teamsters Joint Council 25, which represents 20 locals in the Chicago area.

* Meanwhile, Roll Call takes a look at Google’s “autocomplete” function and how it means that some politicians can’t get away from their pasts

And anyone looking for Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) will be reminded that he made headlines when his wife accused him of having unpaid child support.

* How the study was done

One of the difficulties in monitoring and potentially managing autocomplete is that Google provides different suggestions to different people. As a part of Google’s ongoing attempt to personalize its search tool, autocomplete provides suggested terms based on a number of factors, including the location of the user and the previous searches from that Google account, according to industry experts.

(To ensure the searches Roll Call did for this story would be a good indication of what most users would see while searching with the same term, the searches were conducted after clearing location information, Google account information and browsing history from the computer used.)

Rob Ousbey, vice president of operations at search engine optimization firm Distilled, explained that one important factor in autocomplete’s algorithm is the search terms being entered by others.

“The more people search for those things, the more likely they are to be suggested,” he said. Those suggestions are “a genuine reflection of what people have been interested in in the past,” he said.

* And Uncle Ted is making an appearance at the usually stodgy Sangamon County Lincoln Day Dinner

Singer, hunter and gun rights advocate Ted Nugent will keynote the Sangamon County GOP’s annual Lincoln Day event on Feb. 10, Sangamon County Republican Chairman Tony Libri said Monday.

The 108th annual event, which raises money for the local GOP will be held in the evening instead of the traditional mid-day. […]

Nugent is not expected to sing at the event, which will be held at the Prairie Capital Convention Center. Included are a private reception at 5 p.m., costing $100 per person or $150 per couple, and a dinner at 6 p.m. costing an additional $100 per person. […]

Libri said he’s familiar with the Nugent song “Cat Scratch Fever,” but doesn’t know much about him. However, he said, he’s hoping for a good turnout, and would be “very happy with 800 or more.”

That last quote shows you what sort of people run the GOP in Springfield. The party chairman knows Nugent’s biggest radio hit, but nothing else? Pretty weird.

* How about a little Tederick to end the post

  28 Comments      


Quinn to sign tax breaks into law this morning (LIVE Coverage)

Tuesday, Jan 10, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Q&A after this event should be interesting because it’ll be the first time Gov. Pat Quinn has spoken publicly since the state’s credit rating was downgraded. We’ll be covering it live in this post, so make sure to come back at 11 o’clock

Gov. Pat Quinn is expected to sign legislation aimed at helping poor families keep more of what they earn.

Under the bill, the state’s earned-income tax credit, which is now 5 percent of the federal credit, would climb to 7.5 percent next year and 10 percent the year after. A bill signing is planned for Tuesday in Chicago.

The new law would increase the personal exemption by $50 to $2,050. That’s the amount of money exempt from income taxes for each person. The law would also increase the amount each year by the rate of inflation.

The personal exemption won’t mean much money at all, but it will eventually be significant in the long term. The very long term. The EITC aspect is more important in the short term

The bill doubles the Earned Income Tax Credit over time. For a family with three children earning around $30,000 annually, it will mean about 200 dollars more a year.

According to a recent study by the Heartland Alliance, more than one million Illinoisans now receive the Earned Income Tax Credit. Talbot explains that it’s a credit for those at the bottom of the pay scale who often have to make sacrifices just to keep food on the table.

“Now, parents will be able to stretch their hard-earned income just a little bit further as they take care of their kids.”

* From a press release

In fact, as a percentage of their earnings, Illinois’ lowest‐income families paid three times as much as the wealthiest households on state and local taxes in 2007, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. That disparity would be even greater without the help of the existing Illinois EITC; a stronger tax credit over the next couple of years should help reduce the gap somewhat.

The state will be live-streaming this event starting at 11 o’clock this morning. You can watch and/or listen by clicking here.

…Adding… The press releases and related articles are starting to roll in, so I’ll just open up the ScribbleLive program now. BlackBerry users should click here, everyone else can just kick back and watch…

  32 Comments      


More legislators opt out of scholarship program

Tuesday, Jan 10, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A growing number of House and Senate members are opting out of the legislative scholarship program

State Sen. A.J. Wilhelmi, D-Joliet, has joined the growing ranks of Illinois legislators dropping out of the Legislative Tuition Waiver Program.

The program lets legislators waive state college tuition for selected students in their districts but has become increasing controversial amid exposure of abuses. The numbers of senators and representatives opting not to participate approached half of the state Legislature in 2011 and could grow this year.

“I think it’s going to be much more widespread to the point that we might eliminate (the program) legislatively,” Wilhelmi said Monday.

“The problems of the program outweigh its benefits,” Wilhelmi said.

Wilhelmi awarded a waiver to a nephew of Will County Executive Larry Walsh, an issue raised by the state senator’s opponent in his last election campaign. Wilhelmi, however, said his waivers were based in large part on financial need. There is no requirement that waiver recipients show need.

In 2011, 26 state senators and 51 state representatives chose not to participate, according to the Illinois State Board of Education.

* And two Lake County Republicans also opted out this week

In a joint news release, Republicans Ed Sullivan of Mundelein and Kent Gaffney of Lake Barrington called the program “an unfunded mandate” that adds strain to Illinois’ already stressed finances. ]…]

Last year, prosecutors subpoenaed records regarding scholarships that former lawmaker Robert Molaro, a Chicago Democrat, gave to a supporter’s children who might not have lived in his district.

Sullivan denied any such favoritism in his prior scholarship awards. Applications are considered by a committee that did not know the students’ names, sexes or hometowns, he insisted.

“I’ve always had a blind process,” he said in an interview.

* And the public pressure is increasing

State Rep. Jason Barickman, R-Champaign, is calling for an end to the state’s legislative scholarship program.

A number of lawmakers have stopped handing out the awards after reports that some tuition waivers were being given to legislators’ relatives, campaign donors or students who weren’t even eligible for the money.

Barickman said the scholarships are costing Illinois about $14 million a year in lost tuition, including about $3 million to Illinois State University. […]

“The fact that nearly 200 legislators are given the opportunity with absolutely no discretion to give scholarships to people who live in their districts, to me is ridiculous,” Barickman said. “We’re policymakers, not kingmakers.”

Only a few voters will cast their ballots based on this one, single issue, but the Democratic majority needs to do things this year like abolishing the program. Tax hikes, fee hikes, budget cuts, pension problems, scandals galore. They need to at least look like they’re trying to clean up the mess.

  36 Comments      


Illinois’ newest car

Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The new Dodge Dart was unveiled this week at the Detroit Auto Show. It’s not exactly my kind of car, but I’ll bet my daughter would like it.

I only mention this because the Dart will be manufactured in Illinois. Have a look

You can click the pick for more images.

* More info

Adapting DNA from corporate parent Fiat and sibling Alfa Romeo, the all-new 2013 Dodge Dart goes on sale this summer with a choice of three engines, three transmissions and a host of cool features.

Built in Illinois, the front-wheel-drive Dart is based on a lengthened and widened version of the platform that underpins the Alfa Romeo Giulietta, which corporate parent Fiat now refers to as its CUSW (for Compact U.S. Wide) architecture.

Four-cylinder engine choices include a 160-horsepower Tigershark 2.0-liter, a 160-hp turbocharged 1.4-liter Multiair and a 184-hp Tigershark 2.4-liter. Six-speed manual, six-speed automatic and six-speed dual dry-clutch (DDCT) transmissions are available. […]

Chrysler also has focused considerable attention on the Dart’s interior, which is said to have the roominess of a midsize sedan and comes with 10 standard airbags, dual-zone climate control and keyless push-button start.

* The interior…

* AP

Some versions of the Dart will get 40 miles per gallon on the highway. Its starting price is $15,995, at least $500 below its closest competitors, the Ford Focus and Chevrolet Cruze. The Focus starts at $16,500, while the Cruze base price is $16,720. The Toyota Corolla, the sales leader in compacts, starts at $15,900. […]

The company knew it had to overcome an image of chintzy, hard plastic interiors from its leaner years. As a result, it paid close attention to the inside, says Bigland. Chrysler gave the Dart a soft-looking dashboard and doors, and developed switches that open and close vents like in a luxury car.

Dart buyers also can get touch-screen controls and can pick their own interior accent colors. There’s a choice of three engines, including a Fiat-designed 1.4-liter turbo reserved for the muscle car edition.

Also setting the car apart is the tail lights. The Dart borrowed the trademark horizontal LED lighting from the tough-looking Dodge Charger.

* The rear view…

Thoughts?

  57 Comments      


No ID required

Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* An article written just before the new year, and others like it, has created a storm of controversy

Starting Sunday it’s going to be tougher to buy a can of Drano than a bottle of Jack Daniels.

Sunday is when the state’s Caustic/Corrosive Substance Act goes into effect imposing new purchase hurdles for many products including drain and sewer line cleaners.

The legislation is a response to two acid attacks in Chicago where the victims were severely disfigured. It was the final piece of legislation for State Rep. Susan Mendoza, D-Chicago, who now is the Chicago city clerk.

* Here’s another one

Buying a bottle of Drano will never be the same in Illinois again.

A new state law went into effect today that requires customers purchasing products containing sodium hydroxide, or lye, and other corrosive chemicals to show a legitimate photo ID and to provide their name, address and date of birth. And the store clerk will log the time and date of purchase.

While some consider the regulations intrusive, Illinois lawmakers behind the new law said regulating drain cleaners and other products is needed to protect the public from those who may use them to harm.

“The fact of the matter is there are evil people in the world who will abuse the most normal, everyday household products for sinister aims,” state Rep. Rich Morthland, R-Cordova, said.

According to Illinois Review, Drudge picked up on the story the other day. He linked to a CBS2 story depicting a bottle of Liquid Plummer. I even made a joking reference to the law the other day. Illinois Review and others are attempting to make the case that it’s OK to ban ID checks for voting, but not for buying Drano

However, those same House members seem troubled about requiring citizens to show that same “valid driver’s license or other government-issued identification showing the person’s name, date of birth, and photograph” in order to vote.

In fact, Rep. Randy Ramey’s bill (HB 3458) designed to reduce voter fraud by requiring valid identification sits dormant in House Rules.

* But is this actually the case? Will you have to register with the state if you buy a bottle of Drano at the local supermarket? Absolutely not, says one of the bill’s Republican supporters

No, said state Rep. Chapin Rose, you shouldn’t need to show your driver’s license or sign a form to buy Drano or most other bathroom cleaning products.

There’s been some confusion about what is covered by a state law that went into effect Jan. 1, the Mahomet Republican said.

“The way this has been reported is about 90 percent not accurate,” said Rose, whose office has received a few calls about the bill (HB 2193) approved last spring. “There are going to be some high-grade, industrial-grade products available at Menards, for example, that are covered, but they’re industrial grade. Virtually anything on the Walmart shelf is not going to be covered by this.” […]

HB 2193, which passed both houses of the Legislature unanimously, limits who can possess certain caustic or corrosive acids that are regulated by the Federal Caustic Poison Act. Persons who sell or use the substances for commercial purposes are exempt from the restriction on possession. […]

But the law doesn’t apply to most everyday consumer products, said [Tanya Triche, senior counsel with the Illinois Retail Merchants Association], only those that contain the words “causes severe burns” on the label.

The bill passed both chambers on unanimous votes.

* And if you check the Midwest Hardware Association’s website, you’ll see a list of products that would require the registration. The list includes commercial products, like “Rooto Professional Drain Opener.” This stuff has high concentrations of sulfuric acid and other compounds that are far more harmful than household products.

* Also, if you watch the debate on the unamended House bill, you’ll get a lot of other answers to your questions

  36 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This is how Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady responded to Friday’s ratings downgrade by Moody’s

“(Friday’s) action by Moodys is a direct result of Mike Madigan’s failure to pass legislation reforming the public pension system which is bankrupting the state,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady.

“Madigan passed massive tax increases in 36 hours last year, but won’t touch the pension issue because it might jeopardize the millions in campaign donations he receives from organized labor.”

Brady continued, “In Madigan’s world, sound public policy long ago took a back seat to accumulating power and self-enrichment. Illinois deserves better.”

* The Question: Do you think “sound public policy long ago took a back seat to accumulating power and self-enrichment” in Speaker Madigan’s world? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please. Thanks.


  48 Comments      


Beyond the smart grid bill

Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A Chicago News Cooperative story goes beyond the fact that Sen. Mike Jacobs sponsored the so-called “smart grid bill” despite the fact that Jacobs’ father Denny lobbies for ComEd

In 2007, Denny Jacobs received $9,000 from the Illinois Recovery Association, which represents auto-repossession businesses, to lobby for a bill that would regulate the industry more tightly, according to Rick Constantine, who led the association’s lobbying effort at the time. Senator Jacobs introduced the bill, which died in committee.

Denny Jacobs registered last year as a lobbyist for the Rock Island Boatworks, which owns the casino in that city. Senator Jacobs had sponsored a bill narrowly tailored to give the casino a tax break.

At the time Denny Jacobs was lobbying for the smart-grid bill last year, Senator Jacobs took to the floor of the Senate and invited colleagues to a reception of “appetizers” and “liquid libations” hosted by ComEd. State records show that the company spent $3,818 on the reception and an additional $5,690 taking lawmakers to dinner that night.

During hearings before the Senate Energy Committee he oversees, Senator Jacobs allowed less than 15 minutes of testimony before adjourning, sending the measure to the Senate floor.

The move denied Scott Musser, the associate state director of the AARP, the opportunity to express his opposition. “It was very suspect, especially on such a huge and controversial issue,” Musser said.

That smart grid bill sponsorship clearly crossed a line. I won’t say it was illegal, but Senate leadership never should’ve allowed it to happen. There’s just no defending it.

* The CNC also looked at some loopholes in the state’s lobbyist registration laws

Both lobbyists and their clients are required to disclose their lobbyist-client relationships. In 242 instances, records show, lobbyists reported working for a client but there was no corresponding registration by the client.

Lobbyists also do not have to detail all of the money they spend lobbying public officials. Most lunches or other entertainment are reported, but other outlays are not required to be disclosed. The nonpartisan watchdog group Common Cause Illinois compared Illinois’ filings to those in Pennsylvania and found that Pennsylvania lobbyists reported $470 million in expenditures in 2009, compared to only $1.3 million reported by Illinois lobbyists that year.

When lobbyists work as subcontractors to other lobbyists, as often happens, they are not required to identify the ultimate beneficiary of their efforts. They are required to report only the name of the lobbyist who hired them.

Lobbyists have long pushed back against disclosing what their paid and how they spend their money beyond food and entertainment. But federal lobbyists have to report those things and the time may be near for Illinois as well.

Discuss.

  22 Comments      


Quinn contradicts lt. governor on school consolidation

Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This study made for some big headlines over the weekend

It would cost $3.7 billion over four years to merge all of Illinois’ high school-only and elementary-only school districts, according to an Illinois State Board of Education analysis.

The whopping cost to a state government already plagued by financial problems means forced consolidation is unlikely, said Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon, who heads the Classrooms First Commission, which is studying the issue.

* But this is where the cost estimate is coming from…

The multibillion-dollar cost stems mainly from two factors. Merged school districts often have different pay scales, and when they merge, the state pays to make sure all teachers in the combined district are compensated based on the higher salary scale.

There are 100 high school-only districts in Illinois and 377 elementary-only districts. Combining them into 101 unit districts would affect nearly one out of every three children in the state. Funding the salary incentive alone over the required four-year period would cost $3.1 billion, according to the ISBE.

The state typically also pays districts $4,000 per certified staff member for up to three years. That would cost $611 million.

* “I don’t agree with that,” said Gov. Pat Quinn on Friday. Quinn proposed mass school consolidations in his budget address last year.

The governor reasons that the state doesn’t have to continue using the current law to force consolidations. Quinn said the new law could require some adjustments. “I don’t think the current law would envision the kind of fundamental restructuring that we hope to get,” he said.

Listen…

* This makes sense to me. There’s no reason that the state has to continue paying all those costs in order to get consolidation. Your thoughts?

  26 Comments      


Spin gone awry and the future of the “temporary” income tax

Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Most of the statements from Gov. Pat Quinn’s office Friday afternoon regarding the Moody’s downgrade were carefully constructed. This one was not

A spokeswoman for Gov. Quinn called the Moody’s downgrade of Illinois an “outlier decision.” She said two other Wall Street rating agencies affirmed the state’s previous credit rating.

Yeah, the other two agencies affirmed the state’s current ratings, but they whacked Illinois hard nonetheless.

* Meanwhile, my statewide syndicated newspaper column is about the future of the “temporary” income tax

He didn’t come out and say it, but Gov. Pat Quinn has apparently abandoned his promise to allow the “temporary” personal and corporate income tax hikes to expire three years from now.

The governor submitted a three-year revenue and spending projection last week as he’s required to do by a new Illinois law. Its bottom line is that revenue is simply not high enough to match what Quinn wants to spend. According to his projections, the state will finish this fiscal year with a $507 million deficit, despite the recent tax increases.

Overall, Quinn wants to reduce the state’s operating budget by 7 percent next fiscal year, but much of that “cut” actually is a $400 million decrease in the availability of what is known as “salvage” money, or unspent appropriations. Quinn then projects no more cuts or increases through 2015.

The governor also believes he can keep health care spending flat for the next three years. The Senate Republicans say those projections are way off the mark. Health care inflation is rampant. The Republicans say Medicaid spending alone will have to rise by $2 billion to 3 billion over the next few years to keep pace with current laws.

Quinn wants to change some of those laws, but that would mean reducing payouts to providers (doctors and hospitals have powerful lobbyists) and kicking people off coverage and making them pay more during widespread economic hardship. Not easy, to say the least.

Quinn’s proposed cuts are outmatched by pension spending, which will continue to increase by leaps and bounds. Years of underfunding the systems and a 1990s-era law that delayed dealing with the problem have combined to squeeze the budget hard.

And then we arrive at fiscal 2015, when the governor projects a budget deficit of $818 million. As the Senate Republicans point out with their health care spending projections, that figure could be way low.

It wasn’t in his report, but Quinn’s projected deficit will double the very next year because most of the income tax increase is set to expire in January 2015, exactly halfway through the 2015 fiscal year.

The governor has promised to allow the tax increase to expire on schedule, most prominently during an appearance in Peoria with Caterpillar’s chief executive Doug Oberhelman, who has repeatedly complained about Illinois’ poor business climate.

Yet there’s no way to get rid of all that income tax increase with the governor’s three-year road map. He simply hasn’t made the cuts or produced the necessary revenue to keep the books in balance.

By Quinn’s own reckoning, all or at least some of that tax increase will have to remain. And if the Senate Republicans are right about health care spending projections, that 2016 deficit will be close to $5 billion, which is pretty much right back where we started.

I talked the other day to a Democratic political operative who said he was trying to figure out a way to explain to voters the need for the higher income tax and why the state still has to cut programs and can’t pay its bills. He said he had put a lot of thought into this problem but was having no luck and asked if I had any ideas.

My advice was simple politics — change the subject and attack the other side for something else.

There’s just no way on God’s green Earth you can win that argument, I said. You believe the tax hikes were necessary but saying that mass misery would’ve resulted had they not passed isn’t easy to do when most people firmly believe that simply cutting “waste and inefficiency” will solve all our problems.

Illinoisans have been so inundated with media hype about businesses threatening to leave and state vendors suffering from late payments that no amount of political spin can alter that negative perception.

And Quinn’s spending and revenue projections show we’re heading back to the edge of the abyss in three years — either politically via what will surely be a hugely unpopular permanent tax increase or governmentally if the tax hike expires and the state plunges back into the red. Either way, it won’t be pretty.

* Related…

* Quinn optimistic about odds for Chicago casino agreement this year - But governor still opposes slots at racetracks — and that could be a deal breaker

* State behind on MAP Grant payments

* A plea for Medicaid mercy

* Editorial: Bad signals coming from budget forecast

* Erickson: Budget report starts 2012 on a downer

* Finke: Illinois starting the new year in arrears

* Cost of teacher pensions swamping classroom needs, report says

* Editorial: Pension reform welcome, but bankrupt Illinois needs more

* Public pensions loom as a huge problem in Illinois

* Editorial: Pension fix a preview of ‘reform’ difficulties

* Moody’s cuts Illinois GO rating to A2 from A1

* Editorial: State pension loopholes must be plugged

  33 Comments      


Mississippi? Really?

Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois definitely has a real problem with net out-migration. No question about it, especially as our Baby Bommers retire to sunnier climes. But this statement by an Illinois Policy Institute staffer looks more like propaganda than analysis

“Illinoisans are packing up and bidding adieu to our high taxes and crushing labor laws. They’re heading for states with lower tax burdens and more economic freedom. Places like Alabama and Mississippi may have not traditionally been known as beacons of prosperity, but they’re winning the race for families and businesses. Freer markets improve everyday life significantly, and people respond to opportunities for growth.”

Who knew that Alabama and Mississippi were “beacons of prosperity”? It’s true that Alabama has a lower unemployment rate than Illinois. Even so, you still gotta live in Alabama.

* But Mississippi? Its unemployment rate is higher than Illinois’ rate, at 10.5 perecent compared to 10 percent. Mississippi also has the lowest median income in the nation. Alabama isn’t too far behind. Its inclusion wouldn’t be because Mississippi is a so-called “right to work” state, would it?

Obviously, Illinois can and should learn lessons from surrounding states. We’re not the best in anything, and the worst in too many categories. But if we want to engage in a rapid race to the bottom and lower our median income by $17K to match Mississippi’s, we’ll lose even if we “win.”

  66 Comments      


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Monday, Jan 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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