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Let’s rate some ads

Thursday, Mar 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We have two new congressional TV ads to rate today. First up, Jesse Jackson, Jr

Among other things, the spot features a woman doing all the talking, probably because of the congressman’s problems in that regard. It also showcases a photo of President Obama and claims Debbie Halvorson “sat on the sidelines” during the healthcare debate.

* Adam Kinzinger says 2012 “must be about our future, not our past”

The first time I heard the ad, it almost sounded like Kinzinger had something in his past he was trying to dismiss. Not sure it’s the greatest line, although it does make sense in the context of Don Manzullo’s long congressional tenure

* Ward Room interviewed House Speaker Michael Madigan’s Democratic primary opponent Michele Piszczor

Ward Room: How would you vote on the conceal carry bill?

Piszczor: I don’t know. I’m out there canvassing. Ultimately, it’s not my ideas. It’s the people of my district’s. That’s why I’m out there canvassing, talking to the people of my district, hearing how they want me to vote in Springfield. Politicians too quickly put their own two cents in it, get paid by contributions that they get from people like Michael Madigan to vote certain ways. I’m out here for the people. However they wish for me to vote on these issues, that’s how I’m going to vote?

Ward Room: Has that come up yet?

Piszczor: It hasn’t. Their issue right now is the DREAM Act, which I am in favor of. The income tax increase, from 3 to 5 percent has been a big issue. […]

Ward Room: What does the state have to do to balance its budget, if not a tax increase?

Piszczor: If we have corporations to come back into Illinois and invest and want to do investment, then that gets people to get hired. When they get hired, they get taxed, federally and state, and then they turn around and buy homes, which you then purchase a mortgage, which you get taxed on, and those people purchase products in this state, which they get taxed on.

Ward Room: So what would you to bring jobs to Illinois?

Piszczor: The taxes are incredible, overcharging these people. The environment is not conducive for corporation investment in Illinois, is the best way I can put it. I’m talking to business owners, and they’re saying, ‘The taxes are killing us. At this point, it’s better for us to just close our doors.’

* The margin of error on this poll is so high that anybody who reports these numbers as fact should be put under heavy sedation in order to keep them away from a computer

Republican primary voters in Southern Illinois favor former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 29 percent to 21 percent, according to a new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

The survey, conducted last week, also shows former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich as the choice of 11 percent of GOP primary voters, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul drew 6 percent.

The “front-runner” among area voters is “undecided.” A plurality of Southern Illinois Republicans — 30 percent — said they were undecided, and 4 percent chose “other.”

Yes, 400 registered voters were surveyed. But 17 percent of them said they probably weren’t voting and another 17 percent said they weren’t sure if they were voting. Also, just 32 percent of those 400 registered voters are taking Republican ballots, meaning that a mere 128 people were polled on the presidential primary. That gives us a MoE of 8.66 percent. So, Santorum’s 29-21 lead over Romney is actually within the margin of error.

* But this is very cool

If you live in Chicago and you don’t know where your precinct polling place is, the Board of Elections says there’s now an easy new way to find out.

What you have to do is text the board at (312) 361-8846. In the message space, put the simple version of your home registration address, e.g., 1000 W. Washington — no ZIP code, unit number or city. The board’s computer then will text you back with the address of your polling place for the March 20 primary.

Board Chairman Langdon Neal says “Where do I vote?” is the top question every Election Day. If enough people use the new system — and it works — it will be fully in place for the busier November general election, Mr. Neal adds.

* Roundup…

* Duckworth, Krishnamoorthi debate their differences, or lack thereof

* 8th Congressional District: Competing democrats focus on ousting Walsh - Democrats Duckworth, Krishnamoorthi avoid attacking each other in run up to primary

* Illinois GOP primary seen as increasingly relevant in presidential race

* Sheyman Sees Role For Feds In Business

* Ilya Sheyman’s Progressive Run

* Will There Be a Republican Primary in the 11th District?

* Cunningham ballot 
status still unknown

* The 1992 Deja Vu - This primary season could prove to be full of surprises for complacent incumbents.

       

15 Comments
  1. - mokenavince - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 11:12 am:

    What has Kinzinger ever done as a Congressman?
    Nothing execpt pass bills to no where.. More of the same will not change to results.Manzullo at least has a passed bills where something has been done.
    Adam just talks and talks and does nothing.Adams dog just won’t hunt.


  2. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 11:14 am:

    “If we have corporations to come back into Illinois and invest and want to do investment, then that gets people to get hired. When they get hired, they get taxed, federally and state, and then they turn around and buy homes, which you then purchase a mortgage, which you get taxed on, and those people purchase products in this state, which they get taxed on.”

    Wow. Just wow.


  3. - railrat - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 11:21 am:

    heres hoping Cunningham stays on the ballot, there should be an award, like the 100 vote trophy, for biggest loser via vote count !


  4. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 11:23 am:

    Trips’ spot is excellent. A real-person testimonial that hits the primary sweet spots of women, healthcare, jobs and Obama, and zings Halvorson, but not in a nasty way.

    Kinzinger is an earnest, good-looking candidate,but I don’t think he has the A-team doing his spots. Can you sell to primary voters that Manzullo is the poster boy for outrageous spending and lost manufacturing jobs? Didn’t cash for clunkers support auto jobs? Is it an issue today?

    The more Piszczor speaks, the more I think she’s an MJM double agent.


  5. - Ray del Camino - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 11:27 am:

    From the press release you linked to on the Southern Illinois Poll: “we should remind people not to over-interpret these results, taken as they are from a relatively small sub-sample of voters in our survey, which was conducted in Illinois’ least populous region. It’s suggestive, perhaps, but not conclusive.”


  6. - Shore - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 11:30 am:

    Every single jackson ad you’ve posted and that he’s done has included 2 things-jackson and black women, whether its that ad or the one with maxine waters and I want to say they’ve involved healthcare. I can’t remember the last time we had an election where the swing vote was female black voters but it’s interesting nonetheless.

    I always thought kinzinger’s best asset was his age, that he looks like a fresh new leader. I don’t understand why they have him in a tie in a studio when what they should be projecting is the idea of youth and a fresh start and change, but that’s their call.

    I can’t wait for the walsh-duckworth race, that thing is going to be a cable tv sensation.


  7. - Skeeter - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 11:35 am:

    “Our future must be better than our past” is an absolutely awful line. So Adam, you think America has failed? Why do you hate this country? The spot looks like it was put together by high school students. He has a point to make about his opponent and spending, but the delivery is awful.

    I’m not a fan of Jesse Jackson, Jr., but that is a great ad. The women seems very legit, it has a good story, and unlike the Kinzinger ad it looks and sounds like it was put together by professionals.

    The Madigan thing shows why the Tribune was right for no endorsement. She’s not qualified.


  8. - OneMan - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 12:06 pm:

    Because of the wife it is hard for me to judge the health care ads, the speakers chair sounds impressive, but it isn’t in reality.

    That being said, it is a good ad.

    Looking forward to the superpac ad that points out why he has to reach out to these swing voters.


  9. - jeff - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 12:18 pm:

    Re: Where do I vote? In New Mexico you can vote anywhere. It is so 21st Century it is unbelievable. I present my ID they print my ballot at any polling place I fill it out and they scan it. There no ballots to preprint for eahc precinct and no excess ballots to account for. I could vote downtown, at the train station anywhere. It is lower cost easier to administer and increases voter participation. Why would anyone be against it?


  10. - Michael ... a Voter in the new 2nd - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 1:12 pm:

    A point here about the “terrific” Congressman Jackson ad. Regretably it isn’t accurate. As any Tea Party advocate will be happy to remind the Congressman. If Debbie Halvorson “stood on the sidelines” regarding the Affordable Care Act, she would still be in Congress.


  11. - Shore - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 2:05 pm:

    Eric Cantor endorsed Kinzinger. This is a situation where I think it’s a bigger deal in dc than it is in the district because I don’t think cantor is that well known or liked a figure yet among grassroots republicans for it to matter much.


  12. - mark walker - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 2:30 pm:

    Kinzinger apparantly doesn’t know anything about job creation, regulation, or gov. spending. Not impressive just to repeat empty lines.

    MJM better step up to the plate — and take his free base-on-balls.


  13. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 3:26 pm:

    There were two election results in Ohio that probably have JJJ nervous. Joyce Beatty, a Black state rep, defeated Mary Jo Kilroy, a longtime Congresswoman, in a district that is 17% African-American.

    And the “Mean” Jean Schmidt went down in a GOP primary.

    Dorothy Brown should be nervous. MoveOn.org has developed the Progressive Ballot Guide. It’s an attempt to crowd source who the progressive candidates are. People get to leave their reasoning, not just vote for the candidate.

    People really dislike Dorothy Brown.

    With JJJ, it’s a little less intense. But there just aren’t a bunch of people standing up for JJJ in the district.


  14. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 4:07 pm:

    Just got a weird robocall about 10th ward alderman John Pope asking me “Why isn’t John Pope in jail?” going into all this Victor Reyes-Al Sanchez-Thomas Sadzak stuff… and I don’t even live in the 10th ward. I’m guessing it has something to do with how my cell phone is registered, but was hoping someone fill me in if he is running for something else?


  15. - justsickofit - Thursday, Mar 8, 12 @ 8:54 pm:

    If the worse thing Kinzinger can say about Manzullo is that Manzullo voted for a bill that helps his district (Belvidere auto plant) — I’d say Don has nothing to worry about.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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