* Several southern Illinois musicians have put together a huge benefit weekend in Carbondale for the Harrisburg tornado victims. “Gone With the Wind” starts tonight and runs through Sunday. The event’s Facebook page is here. Click the pic for a larger version of the program…
* I’ll be there Saturday. My brother Devin’s band is playing around 8 o’clock at The Varsity. Devin will also be doing some emcee duties earlier in the evening. Be there if you can. And if you can’t, well, have a listen to Devin’s band, “The Dead or Alives.” Turn it way up…
Yeah, I’m a bad man, baby
But I’m good enough for you
Given that 32% of voters could still change their mind before Tuesday, this represents a potential opportunity for Santorum. Most Gingrich supporters (55%) say they could still change their mind, and they overwhelmingly prefer Santorum over Romney in a two-man race.
Fifty percent (50%) of Illinois primary voters see Romney as the strongest general election candidate, while 24% say the same of Santorum. Perceived electability remains Romney’s strong suit.
Seventy-eight percent (78%) believe Romney is at least somewhat likely to defeat President Obama and 54% say the same of Santorum. Most (53%) think Gingrich is unlikely to win in November and 79% believe it is unlikely Paul could defeat the president.
* Meanwhile, I started getting e-mails like this on February 13th…
Pat Brady, Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, endorsed Tom Smithburg for 42nd Ward Republican Committeeman today.
“I fully agree with Tom’s message of bringing a new day to the city of Chicago,” said Brady of his endorsement. “He will bring a fresh perspective and new ideas, which we desperately need in a city where we could only manage 17% of the vote in 2010. If that number was 20%, Bill Brady would be Governor and in that position he would’ve vetoed the Democrats’ job-killing tax hike, the over-spending budgets, and the gerrymandered redistricting map.”
This is from Feb. 16th…
State Senator Bill Brady today announced his endorsement of Tom Smithburg for 42nd Ward Republican Committeeman.
“Tom Smithburg is right, we must do better in the city of Chicago,” said Brady. “We need a newly energized Republican Party in Chicago. We need to unify around our common ideals and work together to grow the Party. If we can accomplish that, Republicans can once again win statewide elections in Illinois. That is why I’m excited about the fresh ideas Tom brings to the table and am proud to endorse him for 42nd Ward Republican Committeeman.”
March 1st…
Former Illinois Governor Jim Edgar today announced that he has endorsed Tom Smithburg for 42nd Ward Republican Committeeman.
“I have known Tom and his family for many years, and they have always been stalwart Republicans and passionate civic leaders,” said Edgar, who was Governor of Illinois from 1991-1999. “If there is anyone I would trust to bring leadership, unity, and energy to the Republican Party in Chicago, it’s Tom Smithburg. I am pleased to endorse him, and will provide my assistance in his election as well as his efforts to once again make Republicans competitive in the City of Chicago.”
* Since then, Jim Thompson, House GOP Leader Tom Cross, Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka, Congressman Aaron Schock, Dan Proft and others have announced their endorsements for a ward committeeman’s race.
And lest anyone think this is a meaningless little race, consider that the 42nd Ward has, all by itself, more Republicans than many entire counties downstate. In the 2008 November election for example, McCain-Palin received 10,125 votes in the ward. Yes, like all of Chicago’s 50 wards, the 42nd is predominantly Democratic. But the sheer concentration of people still means a lot of Republicans. If Chicago had a functioning Republican Party, the numbers would obviously be better.
A lot of very prominent Republicans live and work in the 42nd and many of those Repubs just don’t like incumbent committeeman Eloise Gerson. She’s made plenty of enemies over the years, while not building much of an organization.
* Smithburg didn’t just come out of the blue. His father is William Smithburg, a very wealthy Chicagoan who has given $300K to candidates over the years. The elder Smithburg is a former CEO of Quaker Oats.
Despite rumors to the contrary, his campaign insists that they’re getting all these endorsements without the father’s direct involvement. David Walsh, for instance, raised money for Sen. Bill Brady’s gubernatorial race and is running the Smithburg race, so that’s how that endorsement was secured.
Whatever the case, I do not believe I have ever seen so many major political figures endorse in a ward committeeman’s race before.
Lawmakers have avoided making the tough calls on major reforms, they confess are needed, in an election year — when all seats are up for grabs.
Legislators spent this week in their home districts, most campaigning before the March 20 primary election. They’ll return here for eight days in March starting March 21, before taking a two-week spring break in April.
To date, the Illinois Senate has been in session 15 days and the Illinois House for 13 days. This time last year the House met on 27 days and the Senate on 18.
Statehouse observers point to the election as a major factor in the lawmakers’ absenteeism.
However, this is no regular election year. The once-a-decade redistricting has several legislators facing new voters in changed districts. New legislative maps are redrawn to match population shifts outlined by the U.S. Census.
“The remap is causing a lot of heartburn,” Christopher Mooney, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield, said.
Lawmakers have used their few days in the statehouse so far this year to take up topics such as registering exotic pets and preventing minors from using tanning beds, instead of tackling the more pressing issues of pension and Medicaid reform.
“It’s an election year, and they don’t want to stick their necks out. Plus they’re busy running for re-election,” Mooney said.
OK, first of all, it’s an election year, so you can’t fairly compare this year’s schedule with last year’s. You’d have to go back two years for a fairer comparison.
Secondly, since when do major issues like state pensions and Medicaid reform ever get decided by March, or even publicly debated? That’s just a bogus argument to make. There are private meetings going on all the time, including this week, on several major topics. It’ll all bubble up eventually, or it won’t, depending. But to say that because we haven’t seen any solutions yet then this session is already a dud just ignores all history.
May is a heavy session month. That’s when the big things will be decided or put off until January, when a simple majority of lame duck legislators can pass some controversial bills. Until then, it’s all just idle speculation.
* What I’ve been wondering, though, is whether a big corporate interest is going to unveil a post-primary initiative. That’s really what has been absent so far this session. We don’t get pension reform bills in March, but we do see other important stuff. The big boys are staying awfully quiet. Too quiet, if you ask me.
* Meanwhile, AFSCME sent over some press clippings from yesterday’s “Day of Action”…
* Union employees picket against prison cuts in Illinois
* Illinois government workers picket against proposed cuts in staffing, facilities
* State Cuts Protest - Stateliners are protesting some of the cuts Quinn wants to make.
* Public service workers take part in statewide “Day of Action”
Those were some very nice local press pops. But if the union really wants to send a message to legislators, it better show it can pull a Madison and do a sustained Statehouse protest because one-off lunchtime protests don’t really demonstrate a whole lot.
“It’s all under review,” spokesman Steve Brown said. He declined to elaborate when asked what that meant and said he didn’t know whether Madigan would reach any conclusions before voters go to the polls.
Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady criticized Madigan again Thursday for his silence, saying Smith should resign. Brady is particularly piqued by a mail piece Madigan produced for his own re-election race boasting of his efforts to “clean up the mess” when former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and other politicians broke the law.
“I guess this time it isn’t politically convenient, so Madigan is sitting this one out — further eroding the public trust and reputation of the state of Illinois,” Brady said in a statement.
Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn said little more than Madigan about the situation during an appearance in Chicago Wednesday.
“We shouldn’t judge anyone until the jury does and the judge renders a sentence, if that’s the case,” Quinn said.
* Former Republican Party official Tom Swiss is running against the arrested Rep. Derrick Smith (D-Chicago) in the Democratic primary. Swiss is complaining about a yard sign that I showed subscribers on Monday…
Thursday Swiss said Madigan and Smith are sending direct mail to voters in the area intended to smear him. The mailers appear to be a reaction to a billboard purchased by Swiss, who is white, that features an African American. There was some confusion as to whether Swiss was trying to pass himself off as an African American with the billboard. Swiss says no.
“I call upon Speaker Madigan to halt the disgusting smear campaign that is being planned for the final weekend,” Swiss said. “The Speaker should be joining me in calling upon Smith to withdraw, not trying to save Smith from the consequences of his own greedy conduct.”
I think that’s what Tom Swiss might call trying to take advantage of an “extremely low information” voter base. The Rep. Smith yard sign could be seen as countering such an attempt.
* Swiss is doing some interesting stuff with the Comed bill issue, however. Click for a bigger pic…
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** I didn’t notice this Tribune editorial until a reader sent it to me…
You know it’s almost Election Day when the lawn signs start vanishing.
They’re there at night but — whoop — missing in the morning. Usually, nobody’s caught in the act.
But look what happened on the Southwest Side on Tuesday: Chivalrous citizens confronted a man they say was lifting campaign lawn signs. They chased him down an alley, called police and made sure a squad car provided a grand exit from the neighborhood.
Carole Suhanek, a local resident, told us she was walking her dog on 64th Place between Meade and Austin avenues when she noticed a man going yard to yard and plucking out the bright red campaign signs of Illinois House candidate Michele Piszczor. The man claimed he had permission to take the signs, but she didn’t believe him.
She flagged down a neighbor, who chased the man through an alley and called police. Suhanek said officers found at least two of Piszczor’s yard signs in his car. We checked — the car is registered to a campaign worker for House Speaker Michael Madigan.
Yes, Piszczor, 25, is running against Madigan in the Democratic primary.
* I was looking for something quick to post this morning, but just couldn’t find anything easy and then realized I could’ve done a long post in the time it took me to think about a short one.
Such is the life of a blog owner.
So, let’s do a question instead.
* Illinois primary day is to ____ as St. Patrick’s Day is to _____?
Friday, Mar 16, 2012 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
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• Residential Special Hardship: Supplementing state-sponsored programs such as the Low Income Energy Assistance Program and the Percentage of Income Payment Plan, eligible customers can receive a grant of up to $500. The program began March 1 and will provide $8 million to eligible recipients in 2012.
• C.H.A.M.P (ComEd Helps Active Military Personnel): Active military and veterans experiencing hardship may be eligible to receive a grant of up to $1,000. Other benefits may include: deposit refund, forgiveness of late payment charges, deferred payment plans and budget payment plans. The program will provide $500,000 to eligible recipients in 2012.
• ComEd will launch its Non-Profit Special Hardship program for non-profit organizations in May 2012.
Since 2007, ComEd has distributed more than 930,000 grants to eligible customers who need assistance paying their electricity bills, and our commitment remains unwavering.
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Ilya Sheyman 45%
Brad Schneider 27%
John Tree 7%
Vivek Bavda 4%
Not sure 16%
629 likely Democratic primary voters, taken between March 11-14.
* Sheyman’s support appears more solidified…
Is your mind made up to support this candidate, or could you still change your mind?
Ilya Sheyman voters 75% made up 25% could change
Brad Schneider voters 70% made up 30% could change
John Tree voters 47% made up 53% could change
Vivek Bavda voters 49% made up 51% could change
* This race is a lot like the 16th District Republican primary in that there’s a purity argument going on…
Which candidate do you consider more progressive: Ilya Sheyman or Brad Schneider?
Ilya Sheyman 57%
Brad Schneider 25%
They’re equally progressive 8%
Not sure 10%
Some of Brad Schneider’s opponents have criticized him for donating thousands of dollars to Republicans in Congress. Have you heard anything about Brad Schneider’s donations to Republicans?
Yes 60%
No 35%
Not sure 5%
(Those who said ‘yes’:) Does what you’ve heard about Brad Schneider’s donations to Republicans make you more or less likely to vote for him, or does it not impact your vote?
More likely to vote for Schneider 10%
Less likely 54%
Doesn’t impact your vote 36%
(Those who said ‘no’ or ‘not sure’:) Public records show that Brad Schneider repeatedly donated to Republican candidates for Congress who want to privatize Social Security, end Medicare, and eliminate a woman’s right to choose. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Brad Schneider, or does it not impact your vote?
More likely to vote for Schneider 7%
Less likely 70%
Doesn’t impact your vote 24%
* Schneider is hitting back against the attacks from his Left flank via a TV ad…
The commercial cites an editorial in The Chicago Tribune (which endorsed Schneider) that called some of Sheyman’s criticisms “bogus.” (A Daily Kos blogger argues that the way Schneider is using the “bogus” quote is itself bogus, since the newspaper was seemingly using the term to convey that it disagreed with Sheyman’s criticisms, not to suggest that he was lying.)
Meanwhile, Politico quotes an adviser for the Blue Dog PAC who suggests that Sheyman’s efforts to label Schneider as a conservative Blue Dog Democrat are bogus.
Schneider, who is active in Jewish communal affairs, has said that “90 percent of my donations went to Democrats and 100 percent of my donations went to support the U.S.-Israel relationship.” Indeed, it’s not uncommon for pro-Israel donors to give to members of both parties, but for a Democratic primary candidate this could prove to be a liability.
The race has been painted as a fight between left and center over the Democratic Party’s future. The 25-year-old Sheyman, who has worked for MoveOn.org and Dean’s Democracy for America, is a favorite of the left, garnering the support of former Senator Russ Feingold, various members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus from around the country and the editor of The Nation. But Schneider, whose background is in strategic management consulting and is endorsed by House Majority Whip Steny Hoyer, has been loath to cede the progressive label to Sheyman. Schneider’s commercial refers to him as the “true progressive.” (Sheyman called himself a “proven progressive” in an earlier TV spot.)
“This is our top priority House race of 2012 because, like Elizabeth Warren, Ilya Sheyman is a proven progressive fighter who will be a strong ally in Congress,” PCCC spokesman Neil Sroka said in a statement. “His victory will send a signal to all Democrats across the nation that if you campaign as a bold progressive, grassroots volunteers and donors will have your back and help you achieve victory.”
Winning a primary as “a bold progressive” is one thing. Winning as a bold progressive in the 10th District come November is a whole other concept.
*** UPDATE *** From a press release…
State Representatives Karen May (D-58) and Elaine Nekritz (D-57) have released an open letter urging civility and honesty and condemning distortions made by out-of-state groups.
The letter, stressing the need for party unity to reach the common goal of Democratic victory in the November general election, follows a slew of negative campaign tactics and attacks by Ilya Sheyman and his out-of-state allies against fellow Democratic candidate Brad Schneider.
May and Nekritz also highlight the progressive values of all four primary candidates, writing, “We feel it is also important to emphasize that all the candidates — Vivek Bavda, Brad Schneider, Ilya Sheyman, and John Tree—are pro-choice, pro-environment, and pro-marriage equality. To claim otherwise is simply a distortion of the facts.”
The Schneider campaign has also called on Ilya Sheyman and his out-of-state supporters to apologize for falsely labeling progressive Democrat Brad Schneider as a conservative “Blue Dog Democrat.”
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* Related…
* Primary races draw robocalls, fire fighters: Brad Schneider’s wife phoned my house Monday. Three times. I would have told her to stop, but she was insistent. A robocall, of course. They’re coming fast and furious as candidates, somehow oblivious to just how annoying these calls are, spend good money to alienate weary voters.
* 10th District candidates address partisan gridlock
* 11:45 am - I don’t know if you’re interested in watching live video of Rod Blagojevich riding in a black SUV to prison, but click here if you are.
* 11:52 am - ABC7 has commentary along with the video feed. Click here. Apparently, the former governor’s car has circled around a couple of times. So, people are becoming impatient.
* 12:01 pm - ABC7 News is off, but you can watch the live feed here. [UPDATED LINK]
Years ago, we used to track Blagojevich’s plane rides from Chicago to Springfield and back. This kinda feels like that. Only not.
* 12:03 pm - He’s talking on his cell phone now. They’ve apparently stopped at a burger joint.
* 12:07 pm - Ah, heck, it’s gonna be another 45 minutes or so. Let’s go to ScribbleLive…
* Public Policy Polling is running a poll this weekend and has asked the public to weigh in on what state they should target. Illinois’ primary election is Tuesday, so we could use some fresh numbers.
Click here, scroll down and leave a comment supporting an Illinois poll.
PPP is also asking about additional questions. Make sure to leave any suggestions you might have when you vote for Illinois in comments.
* We Ask America has a poll out that shows barely a difference in the 16th Congressional District Republican Primary race. The survey, taken March 11-12 has Congressman Don Manzullo at 42.64 percent and Congressman Kinzinger at 42.25 percent. From the pollster…
Early on in the campaign, Kinzinger had all the momentum. At one point not too long ago, we polled Kinzinger up by as much as 13 percent. That support, as the old expression says, may have been “a mile wide and an inch deep.” Manzullo and his campaign team have ferociously fought back to the point that the race is a dead heat. […]
Logic dictates that Manzullo has the momentum leading into Illinois’ March 20 Primary, but Kinzinger continues to surprise and impress many with his abilities, and may have a better GOTV effort overall. As in any race, estimates concerning turnout vary greatly depending on who’s handicapping the contest.
At any rate, it may be a very late night for the folks in Illinois 16.
The polling firm’s last poll had Kinzinger up 47-34, so this is not good news for the Kinzinger camp.
The attack that leaps out at you: Kinzinger was “one of seven Republicans who voted to PAY FOR OBAMA’S APPOINTMENTS!” What does that mean? Just that Kinzinger opposed a summer 2011 amendment that would have denied a salary to anyone recess-appointed by Barack Obama. Really. That’s it. That’s the proof that he’s not conservative enough to represent a mostly-Republican district. It’ll be fascinating to see if this works.
* But a new political action committee that I’ve been telling subscribers about for a while now has jumped into this race on Kinzinger’s side. The Illinois Lunch Pail Republicans, created to back union-friendly Republicans, is reportedly doing a $100,000 independent expenditure on behalf of Kinzinger. Here’s the TV ad…
Support by that group could become an issue.
* Related…
* ‘The one that made my wife weep’: The two Illinois GOP incumbents heading for a showdown Tuesday traded barbs in a contentious primary debate Tuesday night, where Don Manzullo accused Adam Kinzinger of producing a mail piece “that made my wife weep.”
* Kinzinger ‘concerned’ but members think he’ll win: The belief on the Hill among Republican staffers and members tracking the 16th District contest is that while Manzullo has mounted a surprisingly sharp advertising blitz, Kinzinger’s response has been flat. Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s endorsement of Kinzinger Thursday was partly reflective of that sentiment.
* Press Release: Gun Owners of America Endorses Rep. Manzullo Over Rep. Kinzinger
* American Conservative Union backs Manzullo over Kinzinger
