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Meh
Monday, Apr 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller * Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Patrick Collins writes that Illinois’ early primaries are bad…
Says Ted McClelland…
* Let’s take these arguments point by point, shall we? 1) Chicago hit a high of 85° on primary day this year, yet turnout was an all-time low. 2) Most every candidate waits until after the holidays to begin their mail/TV/radio programs. Only a tiny number start spending cash before the holiday season. Some candidates do walk door to door in those early months, but how is that so bad? 3) If you really want to see a bunch of politicians scared of their own shadows and afraid to vote for anything major in a spring session, hold a primary in June, just after the session ends, and see nothing get done. I’m pretty sure session would end on time every other year, though, so there’s that. 4) Except for perhaps the gubernatorial candidates, the big spending on the general election campaign doesn’t start until after Labor Day, no matter when the primary is held. Move the primary to June and they’ll spend just as much money on the general. * People have been arguing for years that cold primary weather helps the Machine. But some of Speaker Madigan’s House Democrats got in real trouble in the February 2010 primary because they didn’t campaign enough in the cold weather, so Madigan moved the date back to March. People are on vacation in the summer months, spend more time outside and are therefore less connected to news, so I’m not sure how a summer primary makes things harder on the Machine. Everybody believes they have a magic bullet to ending Machine politics, and a later primary is one that’s always touted. I seriously doubt it’ll work. Louisiana’s primary is a month before the general election. Yet, that state isn’t exactly a model of political cleanliness.
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- amalia - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:39 pm:
Patrick Collins must be bored in his private legal career. Rich, you are spot on.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:41 pm:
To get on the ballot, you have to circulate petitions. Does he propose to begin petitioning after the Spring Leg session concludes?
- Kasich Walker, Jr. - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:44 pm:
Everyone should mail it in — the ballot, that is.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:46 pm:
Patrick Collins - Honestly … was that … snark?
I think that was snark …
If it IS snark, than it is quite clever, but not funny. Maybe cute …
Are we sure these Collins observation isn’t just a way to get a chuckle? I did read them again for “new” insight, maybe even a math formula of some kind or another … nothing.
It’s snark. I think I saw a post EXACTLY the same and the #6 was…
“A later primary coincides with the blooming of the pretty flowers and the pony rides voters prefer.”
Yeah … snark.
- Stones - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:46 pm:
The voters get what they deserve. I know plenty who didn’t bother to vote and it really bothers me. Many of these same people are among the first to complain about things they see and hear on the news. We have early voting now so in my view there is very little excuse to participate.
- MOON - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:47 pm:
Since when is Collins an expert on such matters?
Rich, I agree 100% with your analysis.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:51 pm:
As far as the Republican presidential primary, I saw somewhere that turnout was lower this year than in 2008 (in some or all states). Republicans were riding a wave of voter enthusiasm since 2010, but this year’s presidential field kind of put a damper on that.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:54 pm:
Don’t #3 and #4 directly conflict with one another?
Isn’t Collins offering a recipe for making primaries longer, more expensive, and a distraction from governing?
Here’s a few tips for beating “The Machine.”
1. Watch Moneyball. Twice.
2. Stop whining.
3. Quit complaining about how much campaigns cost and start raising more money. Start with your family and friends.
4. Knock on doors. Its free, and it works.
5. Don’t make “I’m not The Machine” your reason for running. Didn’t work for Claypool, Hoffman, and a long list of footnotes in Illinois political history.
As far as I can tell, the complaints of Collins and those like him are from the belly of political Opportunists no better than the Machine. They want the job, they just don’t want to do the Work. They have opportunity, they just want those opportunities handed to them on a Silver Platter.
The difference between the Whiners and the Winners is clear. Barack Obama didn’t sit around complaining about a political process stacked against him in 2004 or 2008. Mike Madigan didn’t waste his time issuing news releases complaining about the map in 1995 and 1996.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 2:58 pm:
Other Collins Observations on Early Primaries:
A Tuesday primary will be preceded by a Monday, and then followed directly by a Wednesday.
Surveys have shown 60% of all candidates in early primaries win … if they have the highest number of votes.
Once the Lunar Spring arrives, turnout by voters who are not nocturnal increases at the rate of minutes of sunlight increased after the Lunar Spring.
Precinct Captains in early primaries are more likely to get coffee for election judges than “volunteers” in later election dates. It’s Science.
A May or June primary date, versus a March Primary date, leads to more voters wearing shorts, short sleave shirts and Moo-Moos, increasing turnout for “people watchers”
Sign stealing increases with colder weather … (knowin in Cook County as the ‘Peraica Effect’ …)
Most voters surveyed about a later primary listed “voting” behind “washing my car”, and just ahead of “weeding the garden” as probable Election Day activities.
More television reruns are likely with a later Primary Day, which will increase voter turnout, unless Tuesday happens to be “Bachelorette Marathon Tuesdays” on a cable network.
I want to thank Mr. Collins for the insight.
- Wensicia - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:11 pm:
“We unfairly ask for candidates to compete with the holiday season for the public’s attention.”
How about we unfairly expose the public to ceaseless months and often year round campaigning?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:16 pm:
Astronomers would also point out that there’s almost two more full hours of daylight on primary election day than general election day.
If Collins is looking to do some legitimate complaining, there’s plenty of real disenfranchisement being led by the GOP in other states.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:19 pm:
- YDD -
Please don’t make Mr. Collins’ insight partisan in any way.
It’s bland, unfulfilling, and forgettable. Not unlike Campaign Chicken dinners.
- anonymoose - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:35 pm:
Excuse the generalizations on my part -
but people do not want to vote in a primary and be a cast (in the view of many voters) as a reprehensible Democrat OR Republican. Ever listen while standing in line to vote and and how many people ask for an Independent ballot? Can we give open primaries a try and see if that improves voter apathy?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:37 pm:
ILGOP MOVES FOR EVEN ‘EARLIER’ PRIMARY DATE TO KEEP CROSS OFF GOLF COURSE
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:39 pm:
I don’t understand Point 4 where he’s concerned about the campaigning diverting focus away from governing. Won’t an upcoming primary campaign in June divert focus away from passing/signing a budget in May even more than an upcoming general election campaign in November?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:40 pm:
SPEAKER’S BILL MOVES PRIMARY TO JUNE - WILL BUY CROSS SEASON GOLF PASS UPON PASSAGE
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:43 pm:
I don’t think it’s tough to vote, or it’s about as tough as getting gas or picking up a six pack.
If Collins troubles were addressed, what would be the better result? Would there more noble citizens presenting themselves?
Outside of Jim Crow, no on has had a problem voting in a long time. And it’s easier today than ever.
- Lakeview - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:44 pm:
I love an early primary in a presidential election year, because that seems like the only way for Illinoisians to have a vote for president that matters.
- siriusly - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 3:45 pm:
Collins is the worst pundit of all. I’d rather watch Paul Green slobbering all over Larry Potash and the WGN news desk for hours than have to hear Collins talk about what he thinks.
Those first three reasons were laughable. I do think there is a potential upside of the shorter campaign season if we move the primary later, but it has drawbacks too of course.
Ours is the worst system, except for the all the other ones.
- mokenavince - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 4:02 pm:
March is as good a time as any for a primary. The
regulars are always going to vote. The Independants wait till November and then it’s generaly below 35% of voters.I would bet that Collins was never a precinct captain.
- Anon III - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 4:13 pm:
March primaries for November general elections are unreasonably early. To run in a March primary, a new candidate has to start his campaign months earlier, a year before the general election. The long campaign tends to rule out non-incumbent candidates who have a real job in the real world.
The long campaign means that decisions to run are less likely to be responsive to issues that concern the voters, since few candidates have a crystal-ball to know a year in advance the issues that will concern the electors in the Fall.
Looked at another way, what is there about year-long campaigns that might make for a more representative democracy? Anything?
- 47th Ward - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 4:21 pm:
It’s not the weather, cold or hot. It’s the candidates and the issues that boost (or depress) voter turnout.
Always has been, always will be.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 4:26 pm:
@Oswego Willy
== its bland, unfulfilling and forgettable ==
Exactly. Right out of Tom Cross’s talking points.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 4:36 pm:
=====@Oswego Willy
== its bland, unfulfilling and forgettable ==
Exactly. Right out of Tom Cross’s talking points.=====
I just would like Tom Cross to get a press release right, and not have the contact number for the release be a local golf shop. That would be a nice start.
- Captain Illini - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 4:46 pm:
As an Election Judge for the past eight years, two things come to mind…first, with early voting opportunities, absentee ballots, etc, the aggregate vote percentage in my county was almost 28%…still dismal, but better than some, but it takes away the need for the “day” to be special. The number one complaint we hear is closed primary, and that keeps a lot of people away, since they don’t like declaring a party. I can argue it either way, since it does not affect the people whom would vote anyway, myself included, but many simply will not declare, nor like the fact they cannot chose whomever they would like to vote for in either party.
- dave - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 5:59 pm:
** The long campaign tends to rule out non-incumbent candidates who have a real job in the real world.**
Right… So folks can take 9 months of campaigning with a real job, but not 12 months?
- 1776 - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 7:08 pm:
I personally believe that the lower the voter turnout, the higher the knowledge of voters. After all, only those who are informed and motivated actually get out and vote.
I’d rather have a smaller turnout with a more educated group than a huge turnout of uninformed voters.
- steve schnorf - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 7:27 pm:
moose, I don’t know where you vote, but I’ve voted in almost 25 primaries and never once heard a voter in line ask for an independent ballot. Now THAT would be a low-information voter.
- Anonymous - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 8:52 pm:
for the record …
“It’s bland, unfulfilling, and forgettable. Not unlike Campaign Chicken dinners.”
“It’s” = Pat Collins observations …
- ZC - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 9:12 pm:
Primaries will be dominated not necessarily by “the Machine” but by people who care intensely about politics, of all stripes. And that’s in part because the information costs of figuring out whom to support in a primary are much higher.
There’s a fundamental inequality there that no amount of reform is going to “solve.” People with a) money; b) labor; c) higher-than-average interest and / or motivation are going to have an “edge” when it comes to winning or supporting winning primary candidates. That will inescapably create a sense of “us / them” with the general electorate, who feels somewhat less connected to the process.
It’s very difficult to think of a cure for that, unless you can shoot the general electorate with a magic Care About and Know About Politics raygun.
- nickname viva - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 9:19 pm:
Pat Collins should run for office and implement his stupid ideas. Why Miller and others fall all over this endless self-promoter is hard to understand. Why doesn’t this reformer take on the judicial branch and their 10 year terms and retention? What a wantabee this self-server has become.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 9:26 pm:
===Now THAT would be a low-information voter.===
Lol!
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 9:50 pm:
The last anonymous was me … for disclosure, sorry
- mark walker - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 10:00 pm:
Just clueless. There’s no correlation, logical or otherwise, between early primaries and corruption or machine politics. Too bad a guy who worked at US Attorney’s office doesn’t better understand corruption.
- bored now - Monday, Apr 9, 12 @ 10:37 pm:
it isn’t the primary date that lends itself to corruption, but the tolerance of the people on illinois that corruption is an acceptable “cost” of governance…
- CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Apr 10, 12 @ 8:18 am:
Wow Patrick “I HAve ALL THe Answers” Collins got really roasted.
Could be that the guy who has never campaigned, raise funds for a campaign, took a stand on an issue, or procured goods or services really has no bleeping clue what he is talking about most times?
Seems the answer is yes.
Now we will wait and see what government agency hires him to conduct some magical inspection and invent some new set of government regulations…we think Indiana was the last fall for the hustle.
- ZC - Tuesday, Apr 10, 12 @ 9:04 am:
bored now,
That would also include political elites however. In IL if you enter politics, you’re taught at an early age (or you figure out) that if there’s corruption, or you see it, your job is to look the other way and not blow the whistle. There may be a higher than average tolerance for other people’s wrongdoing. How many state Republicans and state Democrats knew that Ryan and Blagojevich were up to no good, respectively, but didn’t want to establish reputations as rats?