Today’s wrong number: $10 billion
Tuesday, May 22, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The State Journal-Register published an op-ed today by Stephen Kaufman, a retired university professor…
And business as usual is expensive for the people of Illinois. In his discussion of the [Illinois Reform Commission’s] findings, [commission chairman Patrick Collins] stated unambiguously that corruption and inefficiency in Illinois’ government cost the people of Illinois up to $10 billion annually.
Yes, that’s 10 billion dollars. In the absence of substantive government reform and in a tight economic climate, the people of Illinois are being asked to make extraordinary sacrifices: a major increase in state income tax, decreased state resources for education and health care, and serious erosion of pension benefits are among the many thus far imposed and more are under consideration. Instead of demanding and fighting for meaningful and cost-saving government reform, institutions, businesses and individuals are capitulating to the greed and corruption-driven practices of Illinois state government. [Emphasis added.]
Wow. $10 billion in Illinois state government corruption? That’s a heck of a lot of money - almost a third of General Revenue Fund spending.
* But I didn’t remember Collins actually saying that. So I Googled it. This is what I came up with…
The Illinois Reform Commission has gathered testimony from some experts who peg the “corruption tax” at more than 5 percent of every public contract.
That would easily equate to hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions, a year, says commission chair Patrick Collins, a former federal prosecutor who helped put Ryan in prison.
Hoffman estimates there is about $10 billion alone worth of state contracts that are subject to political manipulation that ultimately could mean higher costs and worse service.
Oops.
* Kaufman’s bio…
Stephen Kaufman, emeritus professor at the University of Illinois, taught immunology and cell biology at the university for 32 years. His research focused on skeletal muscle development and diseases including muscular dystrophy. He is the author of more than 75 scientific papers.
Maybe somebody with more experience ought to be writing op-eds for major Illinois newspapers.
- LincolnLounger - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:29 am:
I’m surprised he could take any time off from his obsession with Chief Illiniwek to worry about any other subject.
- Levois - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:33 am:
Citizens of any background should be able to have their own take on political issues, however, would we look at this guy differently if he had a PhD in political science?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:33 am:
U OF I ACCOUNTING PROF SOLVES STEM CELL RESEARCH
AS FAR A GOV’T BUDGET EXPERT, PROF KNOWS BIO
GOV’T MILLIONS, BILLIONS, - ZEROS CONFUSE BIO PROF
GOV’T NUMBERS NEVER LIE, THEY JUST GET DISSECT WRONG
U OF I PROF DISSECTS GRAF, LAB PROVES OFF
GOV’T BUDGETS AIN’T ROCKET SCIENCE, OR BIO SCIENCE TOO IT SEEMS
D.O.A. - BIO PROF’S GRAF DISSECTION NOT LIVING WELL
- soccermom - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:37 am:
Levois — people are allowed to have opinions. But when it is your “opinion” that 5 percent of 10 billion is 10 billion, maybe your “opinion” is not particularly useful.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:48 am:
“WRONG” DIVISION - MATH AND BIO DON’T MIX FOR PROF
BUDGET “CUTS” - BIO INSPECTION PROVES MATH FAILURE
SHOW YOUR WORK - BIO PROF ANSWER NEEDS MORE “PROOF”
“CARRY THE ZERO” - PROF’S MATH IN WRONG “COLUMN”
HS GYM TEACHER CORRECTS BIO PROF’S IL BUDGET ERROR - P.E. TEACHERS REJOICE
- truthman - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:50 am:
Kaufman obviously studies political science during lunch, and then works on his quantum physics hypotheses at night……
Thank the Lord he is retired so he can devote his full energies to solving Illinois’ budget crisis!!
- wordslinger - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:51 am:
Kaufman is just another guy who wants to be The Victim.
Apparently, life is supposed to be even easier than being a U of I professor, despite the lessons of the history of human experience.
The fact that it is not must be a criminal conspiracy.
- Dan Shields, Springfield, IL - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:58 am:
Typical SJ-R, Gatehouse media has ruined that paper beyond repair. Pretty sad when the Capitol City of the State of Illinois does not have a crediable daily newspaper.
- Secret Square - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:59 am:
For some reason I keep picturing this guy saying “That’s right, 10 BILLION dollars” with the inflection/accent of either Dr. Evil or Carl Sagan…
- Colossus - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:00 am:
As one who holds an advanced degree in PoliSci, it seems that the field of Political Science is one that no one feels the need to respect. I would never argue with a lawyer over what the law actually says, or a doctor over a diagnosis, yet somehow everyone feels it is ok to throw out political expertise because “everyone has an opinion.” It’s not that I just want to shove my views down people’s throats (as I’m accused of doing when I talk about Pareto optimization and the Overton Window), I actually do know more than the person who works in a law firm all day filling out patent application. The reason I work in government and the lawyer works in a law firm: because I know this better than he does, and he knows that better than I do. I’m not disrespecting his political opinion when I tell him that Obama is the best centrist Republican president we’ve ever had, I’m using legitimate benchmarks and data from an established social science to point to long term trends and policy positions to take an objective look at a political actor’s actions. Yet that gets waved away as “liberal talk” because “I’m entitled to my opinion.”
Experience and education matter. Government is not some foreign beast imposed on us from outside. , and perhaps we should refrain from giving large soapboxes to the equivalent of an overheated Facebook post.
- jake - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:07 am:
I am also a retired life sciences professor at U of I. As a colleague, I found Steve Kaufmann’s column an embarrassment. He seems to feel that when he comments on politics, he does not need to bring either critical thinking or even respect for facts to the task.
- Pygmy - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:17 am:
Well, Colossus, I’d say your analysis is a big reason why political science professors are held in such low regard. I’d also suggest that your assessment is not shared by all political scientists, so the opinion that you belittle is no doubt shared by many political scientists.
As to your desire to “refrain from giving large soapboxes to the equivalent of an overheated Facebook post” I’d suggest a rereading of the first amendment.
- Jake From Elwood - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:28 am:
Shame on the newspaper for not doublechecking the immunologist’s facts. This is the responsibility of the EIC, right?
- Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:28 am:
guys like this are why SURS should have to pick up the employee share of pension costs.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:34 am:
NO CHEMESTRY BEWEEN BIO PROF AND BUDGET MATH
- Dirty Red - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:39 am:
Terrifying to think this might be one of the profs that led to Hogan’s ouster.
= Shame on the newspaper for not doublechecking the immunologist’s facts. =
- BMAN - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:48 am:
10 Million or maybe just a couple of million, what ever Illinois is behind the eight ball big time. I didn’t realize that only editors or newpaper people could write an editorial. Maybe if media did a better job reporting the lunacy of Illinois politics others wouldn’t need to step to do the job. The politician and political process is outrageous and should be rported as such. Then maybe the electorate wouldn’t be so easily deceived.
- steve schnorf - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 11:58 am:
Uninformed opinion is little, if any, better than ignorance. Moynihan’s more famous quote is surely applicable here, but I also like this one; “There are some mistakes only someone with a Ph.D. can make.”
- UIS Professor - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 12:00 pm:
Isn’t it amazing how many professors cannot read?
- ZC - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 12:35 pm:
Lots of people think if they’re successful at their own stock-in-trade, then they must be able to “do politics” successfully as well: wealthy businessmen (including baseball team owners), lawyers, accomplished biologists.
They’re often wrong. I shouldn’t prop up political science the discipline too much, because one of my peeves is that practitioners in my field often -don’t- have the foggiest clue how budgets work, even Americanists. But if we were setting out to actually compose an op-ed, I’d like to think nearly all of us would have the training to research and avoid such an elementary mistake.
- Colossus - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 1:34 pm:
@Pygmy - You clearly don’t understand what the 1st Amendment does and does not do.
Thanks for playing, I appreciate having my point made for me.
- Frank - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 2:50 pm:
FWLIW, Stephen Kaufman is the anti-Chief Illiniwek crusader as well.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 3:09 pm:
How is his argument wrong? It is so disturbing to find that attacking the person (or the person’s background) rather than evaluating his argument passes for intelligent discussion.
- reformer - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 3:15 pm:
The professor’s misinformation merely feeds public ignorance. Polls show that most people think our budget can be balanced merely by eradicating waste and corruption.
- Colossus - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 3:19 pm:
Anonymous (3:09):
His argument is wrong because it is built on a figure ($10B) that is wrong. Not just a bit off, not a difference of opinion, but demonstrably wrong. This isn’t a case of attacking the messenger to kill the message - the message itself is wrong because the wrong messenger was sent.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 3:40 pm:
I saw this as his argument:
“The Illinois Reform Commission’s report made specific recommendations that would affect campaign financing, government structure (including redistricting and the budget approval process), procurement, enforcement bills that address corruption penalties, the statewide grand jury, theft of state property, false statements, fraud and extortion, personnel and patronage reform, term limits and transparency of state government.
The Illinois Reform Commission urged Gov. Quinn and the General Assembly to consider and act on the proposed reforms collectively. They have not….”
Even if the argument were based on $500 million (apparently the more accurate number), that is no small piece of change, and the thrust of his argument still seems valid. Unfortunately for him, his error in one detail derailed the acceptance of his, and I think valid, real issue.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 4:29 pm:
The bigger question is how did that egregious error make it past the fact-checkers at the SJR?
Last time I checked, Op-Ed writers were entitled to their own opinion, not their own facts.
Crazily, the “$500 million Corruption Tax” figure was thrown around like Mardi Gras beads by every paper in the state at the time, even though IT is highly subjective and has no basis in any sound research.
- Cogito - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 4:39 pm:
And this is why scholarly articles go thru peer review.
- Keyser Soze - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 4:55 pm:
Free the Chief!
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 5:30 pm:
ILLINI-WRECK
- Coach - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 5:41 pm:
=== The bigger question is how did that egregious error make it past the fact-checkers at the SJR? ===
When did newspapers last employ fact-checkers … 1986?
- Billy Dennis - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 8:17 pm:
So, the “corruption tax” on state contracts is a measly $500 million. Gotcha. I was worried there for a minute.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, May 22, 12 @ 10:48 pm:
Fits right it with other scintillating SJR articles like someone’s air conditioner getting vandalized.