Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Tobacco sales spike could mean less money than expected
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Tobacco sales spike could mean less money than expected

Friday, Jul 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The state lost a court case after it attempted to shut off the supply of tobacco tax stamps to prevent retailers and consumers from stockpiling cigarettes ahead of the June 24th tax hike of 98 cents per pack. As a result, a buying spree ensued, according to a recent Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability report

In June 2011, a typical $56.4 million was collected from the cigarette tax. In June 2012, with the anticipation of the tax increase, the monthly revenue total was $95.8 million, a 70% increase.

Because of that buying spree, tobacco tax revenues are likely to fall off for a while. This is not a new thing, according to COGFA…

Despite a 40-cent increase in the cigarette tax in July of 2002, cigarette tax revenues in August and September (reflecting July and August sales) were disappointing (annual changes of 4.7% and -30.6%, respectively). It was not until October that the expected effects of the tax increase were seen in revenues.

Taking into account the lawsuit and the history, it could be “several months” before tax revenues begin to reflect the tax hike, says COGFA, and that could mean the state won’t meet its $350 million projection…

If tobacco sales drop off as expected, it may be difficult for the State to generate the original projection of $350 million in new revenues for FY 2013, which in turn, would limit the amount of funds available to be matched by the Federal Government.

That $350 million is supposed to be used to leverage federal money for the state’s broke Medicaid program.

[Hat tip: WUIS.]

* Meanwhile, a lawsuit filed by the Chicago Tribune to unseal University of Illinois student records could be impacted by a US Supreme Court decision

The Iowa Supreme Court says the University of Iowa can conceal hundreds of pages of records related to its investigation into an alleged 2007 sexual assault involving football players.

The court ruled 4-3 that the university can withhold records requested by the Iowa City Press-Citizen newspaper.

The court says releasing them could violate a federal law that prohibits the release of personally identifiable information about students. The court says the records can’t be released in redacted form either, because the newspaper knows the identities of students involved in the case.

The Tribune sued to unseal student records relating to its series of stories about the university’s admissions process for students whose parents had asked legislators for help. A lower court ruled in the newspaper’s favor, but an appellate court ruled that the suit belonged in state court. State law allows Freedom of Information Act requests to be denied if the federal government prohibits disclosure. Federal law strips universities of all their funding if they release student info without parental consent. The appellate court ruled that the matter belonged in state court. Today’s ruling, however, would seem to block the Trib’s case.

[Hat tip: Commenter “PublicServant“]

* Other stuff…

* Last residents moved out of IYC Murphysboro

* Wells Fargo Settles With Illinois Over Racial Discrimination

* Nekritz’ take on Bost’s rant over the rules:

* Editorial: Quinn should nix Leucadia project

* Future of controversial natural-gas plant up to governor

* Editorial: Changing our tune on bag bill

* Forum encourages women to take the lead

* Closure of Auburn Street driving facility angers local officials

* Discipline committee denies Smith’s request for more time

       

16 Comments
  1. - Anon95 - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 10:57 am:

    -Federal law strips universities of all their funding if they release student info without parental consent.-

    This amazes me. I am a parent of a college student. I am not even allowed to be given information on the balance of the tuition unless my (adult) child authorizes the college to give me that information. I must be missing something. How does parental consent play into this?


  2. - PublicServant - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 11:16 am:

    It should read without the student’s consent, not parental.


  3. - He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 11:35 am:

    I cannot believe they have miscalculated the revinue!!! Seems to be common place at the capitol.


  4. - Bigtwich - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 12:00 pm:

    That is the Iowa Supreme Court, not the US Supreme Court, although they were interrupting a federal law.


  5. - Anon - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 12:26 pm:

    Bigtwich is right. An Iowa Supreme Court ruling on the meaning of a federal law isn’t binding on Illinois courts. Just persuasive authority.


  6. - Honest Abe - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 1:00 pm:

    I know a guy who started collecting money and makes cigarette runs to Missouri. Hopefully the Governor can count that as a job created.


  7. - mokenavince - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 1:01 pm:

    The tabacco tax was just paid in advance by the business community. I would bet they won’t pass the savings on to the smokers.Much like the “JOB CREATORS” pass on their tax savings.


  8. - Jeff Trigg - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 1:11 pm:

    On the cig tax hike, I told you so. Didn’t think I’d be saying it this fast, but …

    The Congressional Budget Office just released a new study showing that increased cigarette taxes in the long run will cost states MORE in entitlement costs for programs like SS and Medicaid/Medicare as people live longer and use MORE government services.

    Can we please stop listening to all the hateful nannies pushing the tobacco tax gouging policies? Tax revenue estimates were a lie, and future cost savings to social programs are also a lie. All we’ve ended up doing is creating a class system where only rich people can afford to use tobacco, legally, and where a smugglers’ black market will end up controlling a huge chunk of the market as they are in Europe. I thought we wanted to reduce crime in Chicago, not fuel it with another black market the gangs can make money off of.

    So what now, will Quinn and the Dems just do nothing and watch the unpaid Medicare bills rise by another $300 million this year or will they reduce medical coverage for more of the sick, poor, and old?


  9. - Pot calling kettle - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 2:12 pm:

    The federal law in question is FERPA. I think the feds are pretty clear.

    From the Dept of Ed web site:

    “Generally, schools must have written permission from the parent or eligible student in order to release any information from a student’s education record. However, FERPA allows schools to disclose those records, without consent, to the following parties or under the following conditions (34 CFR § 99.31): (the list does not include media organizations)”

    Further: “Schools may disclose, without consent, “directory” information such as a student’s name, address, telephone number, date and place of birth, honors and awards, and dates of attendance.”

    The web site: http://www2.ed.gov/policy/gen/guid/fpco/ferpa/index.html

    Personally, I do not see how the university could possibly comply the Trib’s request. FERPA is very restrictive. If a parent calls and asks about their child’s registration or class attendance, the university cannot disclose without the student’s permission. This is the case even for a minor! “FERPA gives parents certain rights with respect to their children’s education records. These rights transfer to the student when he or she reaches the age of 18 or attends a school beyond the high school level.” Note the last part. The rights transfer to the student when they enter higher ed, regardless of age.

    I would be very surprised if the Trib received anything through FERPA. Colleges and universities are very, very careful not to violate it.


  10. - Pot calling kettle - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 2:14 pm:

    should have written: I would be very surprised if the Trib received anything through FOIA.


  11. - Colossus - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 2:28 pm:

    Trigg -

    I’d be interested in the link to that study.

    I also think it’s a bit premature to be claiming that this has failed already. If you go back through the archives here, I’m on record saying that yes, there will be a dip in sales on the borders for a couple of months, but by September or so we will see that stabilize and start to produce the kinds of revenue that were projected.

    The news cycle might be 24 hours a day, but it takes longer than a couple of weeks for anything in reality to show whether it works or doesn’t work.

    -All we’ve ended up doing is creating a class system where only rich people can afford to use tobacco, legally, and where a smugglers’ black market will end up controlling a huge chunk of the market as they are in Europe.-

    Did you just try to make the claim that we, as a society, have a responsibility to make sure that everyone, regardless of income, has the opportunity to partake in an activity? And that the activity in question is one that is proven to be lethal and quite costly both to the individual and society as a whole? I could spend an hour unpacking that statement, but I’ll just leave you with this quick tip: Take a breath. Go enjoy some sun, read a book, in general, relax. The sky isn’t falling and acting like it is only makes other folks dismiss otherwise rational points. Otherwise you end up looking like you don’t make sense and sound like a jerk.


  12. - Anyone Remember? - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 3:42 pm:

    In regards to the Iowa case. Does that mean UIS violated FERPA when under Illinois FOIA they were forced to release records related to the woman’s softball team? If you read between the lines, and do some internet detective work, the identity of the victim was not to hard to figure out using the FOIA produced records.


  13. - Jeff Trigg - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 3:49 pm:

    Colossus - Ezra Klein’s blog at WashPo has the link to the CBO’s pdf study.

    “Did you just try to make the claim that we, as a society, have a responsibility to make sure that everyone, regardless of income, has the opportunity to partake in an activity?”

    No, I’m not a socialist. Tax gouging of some products is not even remotely the same thing as the government making the product cheap enough for poor people. Using taxes to turn a $1 product into a $10 product is not the same thing as using subsidies to make a $10 product into a $1 product. I’m not calling for lobster subsidies so poor people can better afford lobster. Take a breath, look past the surface, do some critical thinking and you’ll see the plain difference between tax gouging and subsidies.

    Soda and eating out has been shown to increase obesity. What will happen if we tax gouge soda and restaurants like we do with tobacco in order to decrease obesity? Only rich people will be able to afford soda or eating out. Alcohol is even worse than tobacco in causing health problems, should we tax that so heavily that poor people can’t afford it any longer? If we continue following that logic of tax gouging “bad things” we are indeed creating a class system where the poor can no longer afford the taxes on those products.

    As a society, its no one else’s business if someone wants to smoke, drink soda, or eat out. If you do think it’s societies’ business, then lets amend the Constitution and ban all of those things for everyone including the rich.

    I realize some people hate hearing the truth and think those of us who speak the truth are jerks. That’s their problem, not mine. I’d rather be a jerk than a liar whose lies end up costing everyone else with more unpaid bills and higher debt. I’ll bet you everything I own versus $5,000 of yours that this tax increase doesn’t bring in the $700+ million they claimed it would this year.


  14. - Bill - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 4:19 pm:

    Premium brands-$4.75 a pack in Valdosta, Georgia. Gas is $2.98 per gallon.


  15. - Colossus - Friday, Jul 13, 12 @ 4:45 pm:

    @ Trigg:

    - As a society, its no one else’s business if someone wants to smoke, drink soda, or eat out.-

    30 years from now, when you say this, you will sound like the crazy uncle at Thanksgiving talking about race in a way that was perfectly acceptable 30 years ago. You have a perfectly valid argument for your case, couched in terms of freedom and responsibility, but for the fact that it doesn’t work. Just like Ayn Rand has a perfectly valid case for Objectivism, but for the fact that it doesn’t work. You and I fundamentally disagree on this point.

    Also, one would think Romney taught folks the downside of throwing out bet amounts above 3 digits.

    Thanks for the description of where I can find information in lieu of a link. Here’s one for you (I think #1 might be applicable for you): http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-excuses-we-make-doing-terrible-things_p2/


  16. - Jeff Trigg - Monday, Jul 16, 12 @ 3:59 pm:

    Colossus - Alluding to racism, Rand, and Romney is classic troll behavior, which is worse than being a jerk. You have nothing of substance to add so you resort to personal insults.

    Opposing the government adding $75 to a carton of smokes is just like being a racist? That’s a clown comment, bro.

    Ayn Rand? Haven’t read her fiction, I’m more interested in Lysander Spooner, Frederick Douglas and the abolitionist movement that fought the liberal Democrat establishment’s slavery and segregation policies. If you want to cast aspersions from Rand’s period of history it is notable that while Rand was formulating her writings and political ideas, liberal Democrat hero FDR was appointing Democrat Klansmen to the Supreme Court, including Hugo Black. Its interesting how you reject liberty-minded authors, but fully embrace the racist Democrat history that has shown them to think they are superior to other people and entitled to control how those other people live.

    Romney’s big bet was bad because if reminded people he was rich. My bet did that same thing? That’s another clown comment, bro.

    And finally a link to Cracked. That explains the middle school level of intellect you display with your racist, Rand, and Romney comments. You forgot the Koch brothers in your trolling. If you are going to ignore the issue at hand and turn to small-minded, lame insults you should probably pick on someone closer to your middling intellect level.

    As for 30 years from now around the Thanksgiving table, people won’t be equating my thoughts on excessive taxation that targets poor people harshly with racists. They’ll be too busy reminiscing about their youth when they could afford a full Thanksgiving dinner including real butter and cheesecake or pie and ice cream for desert and explaining to their children why they can’t afford the taxes on ice cream any more and describing what cheesecake is since their children have never been able to afford the taxes on it.

    The depression left an entire generation of frugal, debt averse, conservative voters behind. The same thing is happening now. There are fewer partisan Democrats now than at any time since the Civil War. Just like with prohibition and abortion, government trying to control free people’s behavior doesn’t work. History does not agree with you on this point.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Stop Credit Card Chaos In Illinois!
* House GOP Leader McCombie talks November, Trump, Harris, suburbs, Pritzker, money, Massey
* DNC Chicago coverage roundup
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Live coverage
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller