Do the unions have a choice?
Monday, Aug 20, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Doug Finke asks some good questions about AFSCME…
They can boo and shout down all the Democrats they want, but where do they go politically? To the Republicans? The GOP argued for pension reforms long before the Democrats climbed on board and for harsher ones than are being debated now. They also tend to think government should be shrunk, not expanded.
The unions can sit out the elections, which means they’ll be decided by voters who pay taxes, but don’t collect state pensions. Many of those voters might think Quinn has the right idea.
Not much of a choice, is it?
* My syndicated column is about the union’s anger…
If you were following the news last week, you already know that hundreds of AFSCME members packed the Illinois State Fair Director’s Lawn last Wednesday afternoon and booed pretty much everybody who tried to speak at the annual Democratic event.
The only person of consequence to escape most of the hostility was Secretary of State Jesse White (who is also exempted from the traditional fan booing of politicians at Chicago baseball games). But even White received a few boos at times.
“It is a great day to be a Democrat in Springfield, Illinois!” shouted Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon, the event’s emcee, over loud catcalls. “And I am happy to be here with all of you, no matter what your point of view is,” she continued, hoping to calm the angry crowd, which was far more AFSCME than Democratic.
It didn’t work.
The shouts were so loud during Gov. Pat Quinn’s brief address that nobody could listen to the speech except reporters with direct electronic access to his microphone. The governor showed some real guts by directly challenging the assembled protesters during his remarks, but it didn’t really matter because the workers (and everybody else) couldn’t hear a word of what he said.
Even President Barack Obama was heartily booed by union protesters both times his name was invoked from the stage, suggesting to some Democrats last week that many of the union protesters were actually hardcore Republicans with a political ax to grind. The fact that no AFSCME protests were planned for the following day’s Republican Day event at the State Fair was pointed to by more than one upset Democrat last week.
But there’s no doubt that the union intimidation did have an impact. Secretary White nervously joked with protesters not to “kill the messenger” when he was briefly booed. White made sure to emphatically promise the crowd that his planned closure of a Rockford facility would be addressed soon.
The fact that fewer top Democrats were willing to appear on the dais with Quinn than ever stood with former Gov. Rod Blagojevich at previous fair events also showed the power of the issue to frighten away the governor’s fellow party members. Just one congressional candidate with a serious race, Democrat David Gill, showed up. Gill was lightly booed at times, but the experience as the event’s first speaker appeared to shake him up a bit. He looked upset after his speech and nervously wiped his brow before sitting down.
Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan laughed heartily and smiled wide when his own introduction was loudly booed. Madigan chose not to speak, however. Senate President John Cullerton and Attorney General Lisa Madigan did not appear on the podium.
Blagojevich gave AFSCME some of the best union contracts in the nation. But even he was subjected to an AFSCME State Fair protest when he attempted to make union members pay more for health insurance in 2008. Workers only briefly interrupted Blagojevich’s speech before marching out of the event. Quinn didn’t get so lucky.
A much stronger message had to be sent last week. Quinn is not only attempting to reduce union worker pensions and health benefits, but word from inside the contract negotiations is he’s demanding that every union member take a two-grade reduction in their pay, which would amount to at least a 10 percent pay cut for employees. He’s also demanding a ton of other concessions and closing several state institutions. Union members are fed up with the demands for givebacks from a guy they backed to the hilt last election.
Bill Brady slightly underperformed Mark Kirk in just about every downstate county in 2010, almost totally because of union opposition to Brady’s anti-labor beliefs. Those slim Downstate margins (along with the pro-choice northern suburban backlash against Brady) elected Pat Quinn governor two years ago. There are a ton of Downstate public employee union members. So, he took their votes and he took their money and now they believe that he’s totally turned against them. Rank and file union anger is completely understandable in this context.
It’s little wonder that legislative Democrats didn’t want to advance a major pension reform proposal two days after the State Fair debacle. AFSCME’s tactics may have been over the top, but the union appeared to succeed, at least for now.
We’ll have much more on the pension issue in a bit.
- Esquire - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:08 am:
If I were Sheila Simon, I would be happy to be anywhere too. She was appointed to the ticket and has not fared so well with the voters when she has run for office on her own.
I do not think that all union members are going to defect from the Democrats, but they may not show up at the polls in large numbers given their disaffection and lack of enthusiasm. Madigan has spent considerable resources trying to eliminate challengers from the ballot in many districts to safeguard Democratic incumbents. Maybe he senses something.
- Lakeview - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:12 am:
Public employees unions need to figure out how to make their case to the voters and taxpayers, and most of them have done a lousy job of it. People who have seen their pensions taken away and their retirement savings decimated aren’t likely to be excited about paying higher taxes to cover someone else’s pension. That’s what it boils down to.
- AC - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:15 am:
Sure, unions have a choice, but the need to focus their efforts in the primaries. Plus there are a few moderate republicans left in Illinois. In the case of politicians like Quinn, unions also have the choice to make their voice heard, which the did at the fair last Wednesday.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:15 am:
Finke makes a good point.
Although unions might be gambling that, in the extremely unlikely event that Cross becomes Speaker, his record of weak and ineffectual leadership will mean no pension reform gets passed.
Cross hasn’t even been able to produce 30 yes votes from his own caucus so far. Democrats in all of the targeted legislative districts already support pension reform…so replacing them with Republican votes doesn’t actually get Cross closer to 60 votes.
A much more likely scenerio for unions, however, is that despite their opposition, Madigan remains Speaker and maybe even picks up a seat or two.
In that case, unions will be dealing with a Democratic majority in November and for all the foreseeable sessions to come which not only believes but has proven that it can win without public employee unions.
That leaves unions in a much worse negotiating position than they are in today.
- wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:16 am:
Daley could buck his base on the Southwest and Northwest Side because he figured they wouldn’t vote for guys like Bobby Rush and Gene Pincham.
On the national level, starting with Reagan, the GOP has made cooing noises to the evangelical and cut-government-to-the-bone crowds, but delivered very little. Where are they going to go?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:21 am:
@Lakeview -
I humbly disagree. Unions can try to shift public opinion, but they can’t change fiscal reality.
Its a clear choice between raising revenues, cutting programs the public deeply values (education, human services, health care) or cutting retirement benefits for public employees.
Voters are always going to favor the third option.
Unions BEST strategy is to “lay down” and pass a pension reform package NOW that is clearly unconstitutional, have it overturned by the courts, and take that third option off the table.
Given a choice between raising revenue and protecting vital programs, unions will actually get what they want: a graduated income tax and closure of corporate tax loopholes.
- Melvin Gibson - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:24 am:
On the other hand, Quinn may have been booed by the union folks at the state fair but he has started to gain a great deal more respect from the rest of the voters in the state. Numbers show us that there are far more Democrats and Independents voters out there that aren’t union members who are finally starting to see Quinn show some leadershipand be willing to make the hard decisions. There are far more of these voters in Illinois today than the emaciated remains of the unions when they were in their former glory days of power.
Quinn is finally acknowledging that the tail can no longer be allowed to wag the dog.Times and circumstances have changed.
- western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:25 am:
It called the 2014 primaries. Does the tea party have any options outside the GOP -no it doesnt but it controls trough primaries. Outside of some downstate district no one knows who these Springfield people are so a massive primary push at the state level would be far esier than what the tea party has done to incumbents like Lugar.
Without the Unions nationally and locally there is no ground game there is no independant expendature there is not much of a democratic party……Maybe that has sunk into everyone but Quinn
And please dont bring up Todd Akin and the affects of the tea party because I think the unions have been very restrained compared to the tea party antics
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:33 am:
I guess their only real option is the primary and/or to try and get some Democratic legislative candidates on their side with massive help for the general.
- the Patriot - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:33 am:
Yes, they have a choice, and they should choose republicans now before it gets worse. Had they elected Brady, we could have pulled the band aid off, but because of the false promises of Madigan and Quinn, we keep ignoring the wound and it grows every day.
Education is a perfect example. IEA supported Quinn b/c Brady was going to cut education 10% and we can’t live with that. This years funding to schools is 11% under the election year level.
Teachers supported SB7 to keep their pensions, now they will lose their pensions in Jan. If Teachers had supported Brady, we would have no SB 7 which they hate, their pensions would be better off, and we would have better funded schools.
The rest of the state is the same, because we did not make the draconian cuts 2 years ago, we have to cut deeper now and the Quinn and Madigan have proven they lack the will to do it.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:34 am:
===Numbers show us===
What numbers? Specifically.
- Jechislo - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:35 am:
I agree with YDD. The “white elephant in the room” of all pension reform talk is that it all focuses on passing legislation that is clearly unconstitutional. If we can see that it is unconstitutional, the legislators surely can too.
Which leaves me only one conclusion - neither the Republicans or Democrats want pension reform in its current form. It’s all smoke and mirrors.
For crying out loud, isn’t there one legislator out there that can propose a bill that will stand up in the courts and that will get the bond rating agencies off of Illinois’ backs?
- AC - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:59 am:
Unions need to use this opportunity to push hard for the We Are One proposal, and include significant employee contributions to win public support.
- Cook County Commoner - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:01 am:
I fear that that the rank-and-file union members are being used to protect the more luxurious government employee pensions. I believe the taxpayers of Illinois would accept some modest tax increases to protect the blue collar level pensions so long as the bloated pensions engineered by spiking, rolling accumulated sick and vacation days into the pension collection, delaying collection of Illinois legislator pensins until real retirement (Congresswoman Schakowsky comes to mind on that one), working a short period in a high pay job and collecting a pension onthat number (Bobby Steele as Cook Bd. Chmn. comes to mind on that) and the plethora of other games that have been played over the decades are cancelled out.
But the all-or-nothing tactics apparently displayed at the state fair will ultimately turn voters away from all public employee pensions.
- PublicServant - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:08 am:
How’s the Fortner Bill faring? Any news on that?
- Judgment Day - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:18 am:
Originally posted by YDD:
“Its a clear choice between raising revenues, cutting programs the public deeply values (education, human services, health care) or cutting retirement benefits for public employees.
Voters are always going to favor the third option.
Unions BEST strategy is to “lay down” and pass a pension reform package NOW that is clearly unconstitutional, have it overturned by the courts, and take that third option off the table.
Given a choice between raising revenue and protecting vital programs, unions will actually get what they want: a graduated income tax and closure of corporate tax loopholes.”
First off, “Revenue” basically is a code word for “increasing taxes”. Unless there’s an unbelievable positive change in the economy over the next 2-3 years (IMO, most unlikely), there will be no appetite in the legislature for increasing taxes again.
Also, there’s a whole lot of options still playable in that particular endgame. First off, a graduated income tax would require a constitutional change. That will be easy - NOT.
And I’m looking forward to the day where we see a court (State Supreme Court??) ordering a statewide tax increase for funding state employee pensions.
As far as closure of corporate tax loopholes, ok, so go for it. Better talk to Rahm first, as that’s been a very useful tool in luring business development to the City of Chicago. He probably won’t see the overall picture in the same way you do.
IMO, it’s going to come down to “Programs vrs. Pensions”. Hopefully we won’t see our credit rating crater as part of the process, but it’s hard to be optimistic seeing how things have played out so far.
There is another alternative, and that is a two-fold process:
1) Transfer all the TRS funding requirements back to the local educational tax districts. The end result will be to force a number of school districts into Bankruptcy court, where a bankruptcy reorganization plan can be filed to ‘adjust’ not only the school district union contracts, but also their pension obligations. Brutal, but workable. Oh, well.
2) Take all the state revenue sharing money away from units of local government. The end result will be to force a number of local tax districts into Bankruptcy court, where the same above process can (less likely) will occur.
The reason the changes to retiree pensions will be less likely for most non-educational units of local government is primarily because IMRF (83% to 86% funding levels) is far better funded then TRS.
It’s like digging a new hole in the ground to fill up a different hole, but it would go a long way toward solving the state government’s fiscal issues.
Course, it’s no fun for units of local government.
- Just Because - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:30 am:
I think Afscme shoud think about this! Caterpillar, union settle The six-year contract calls for a one-time 3 percent wage increase for workers hired after May 2005, but it freezes wages of those hired before that date. The approval came after the heavy equipment maker sweetened a ratification bonus to $3,100 from $1,000 just before the vote. The machinists, who make hydraulic parts at a Joliet plant, are paid $11.50 to $28 per hour. About 250 to 300 of the union’s 780 members who work at the plant are on the lower end of the pay scale. Under the contract, workers’ health care premiums will be doubled, pensions eliminated and seniority rights diminished.
- Just Because - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:43 am:
I am not in the union. I am a mert comp employee without a raise for 8 years, but here is what 2 pay grades would mean to a PSA 3.
RC-063-24 to RC-063-22 Step1 loss of $704, step2 $745, step3 $808, step4 $847, step5 $888, step6 $950, step7 $1,014, step8 $1,053
- Bluefish - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:47 am:
JD - While you say “there will be no appetite in the legislature for increasing taxes again” taking all state revenue away from local governments is effectively the same thing. Remember that local governments getting a share of the income tax was enacted in exchange for the locals not charging their own income tax (as they do in many other states). Without this “sharing” of revenue, local governments will need to enact higher local taxes to replace the revenue or have no choice but to further cut critical services such as police, fire and public works. Sounds great in theory but sucks in practice when you can’t get a cop to respond when you’re in trouble or the streets are not plowed.
- cover - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:52 am:
Just Because @ 10:43 am, those cut values are monthly salary changes, correct? If so, the annual salary reductions would range from $8,448 to $12,636 depending on the step level.
- Jimbo - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:52 am:
JB you should clarify that those are monthly numbers, and that healthcare and pension contributions are likely to increase as well as a 10k per year cut in salary.
- Shore - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 11:06 am:
To answer your question, No. They should go all out and use every ounce of their juice.
- Torn - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 11:48 am:
I am a registered Independent. I am also a retired state employee and union member. In the last few years I have been to both union rallies and Tea Party rallies. I was at the Governor’s Day rally, but I wasn’t on the lawn. I tend to vote Republican more often than Democrat, but it depends on whether I feel I have the luxury of voting my beliefs over voting my interests. Too often I don’t.
I did not vote for Quinn or Brady last election. My beliefs would normally compel me to vote for Brady, but my interests would usually compel me to vote for Quinn. After having seen Quinn double cross the union once already I knew that he couldn’t be trusted any more than Blago could. I also knew what Brady was going to do to my pension. So I voted for neither. Judging from Quinn’s very narrow margin of victory over an opponent who was thought to be far too extreme by most, I have to wonder how many other union members felt the same way I did.
As far as the pension issue goes, I see no real difference between either party. The Republicans mostly would take it away, and the top Democrats would too. The difference is that the Republicans have generally been more honest about it. The Republicans also wanted to make the changes to the current employees and leave the current retirees alone. I don’t believe either solution is constitutional, but at least maybe the current employees could better afford the changes while waiting for the courts to throw them out.
From a union member’s perspective if I have to choose between someone who is going to stab me in the front, and someone, who is supposed to be a friend, who is going to stab me in the back, I’d be more compelled to take the knife in the front. If I am going to have to take my chances with the courts either way, I may as well at least give more consideration to my beliefs this time. That could be Republican or it might even be Libertarian for a change. One thing is for sure, when the Democrats cave in on the pension issue, I will seldom have the conflict of voting my interests over my beliefs again.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 11:54 am:
@Judgment Day -
You say “potato,” I say “potato.”
Relying on revenue from local school districts to fund teacher pensions is a new revenue stream. Eliminating or altering the local government share of the sales tax is a change in the Revenue Code.
But, if you want to call it something else, that’s fine.
As for your proposed solution, Republicans won’t even put a single vote on legislation to gradually end the cost-shifting from local school districts to the state, but you think they are gonna support legislation to force school districts to go cold turkey and into bankruptcy?
Never. Gonna. Happen.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:02 pm:
=== local governments will need to enact higher local taxes to replace the revenue or have no choice but to further cut critical services such as police, fire and public works. ===
@Bluefish -
I’m not defending JD, but your argument, like Tom Cross’ argument against ending cost-shifting by school districts, assumes that there is 0% waste in local government and nowhere else left to cut.
I think that a review of the books will show otherwise.
Moreover, conservative economists universally agree that the cost-shifting by school districts and local governments is a universally bad thing.
Let local governments enact a sales tax if need be. They will be held accountable by their constituents for how that money is spent.
The current system has zero accountability.
- wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:30 pm:
–I am a registered Independent–
In what state? Because it’s not Illinois.
- Just Because - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:43 pm:
cover@ 10:52 yes those are monthly salary’s
- Torn - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:50 pm:
Wordslinger when I registered to vote (in Illinois) many many years ago I was asked if I wanted to register as Democrat or Republican. I asked if I had to pick either one and was told no. So I didn’t. As far as I know that makes me an independent. I have never checked to see if that is what actually happened though. If one party was marked over the other at the time though it would have been Democrat.
- Mouthy - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:51 pm:
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:21 am:
“Unions BEST strategy is to “lay down” and pass a pension reform package NOW that is clearly unconstitutional, have it overturned by the courts, and take that third option off the table.”
Gee Yellow Dog I didn’t know unions could pass anything. I say unions should triple the pressure and make democrats “lay down” for biting the hand that feeds them.
- Torn - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 11:48 am:
“From a union member’s perspective if I have to choose between someone who is going to stab me in the front, and someone, who is supposed to be a friend, who is going to stab me in the back, I’d be more compelled to take the knife in the front. If I am going to have to take my chances with the courts either way, I may as well at least give more consideration to my beliefs this time. That could be Republican or it might even be Libertarian for a change. One thing is for sure, when the Democrats cave in on the pension issue, I will seldom have the conflict of voting my interests over my beliefs again.”
As a former union leader I couldn’t agree more. Make them soil themselves.
- wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:54 pm:
–Wordslinger when I registered to vote (in Illinois) many many years ago I was asked if I wanted to register as Democrat or Republican.–
Where and when was that?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:09 pm:
@Mouthy -
Sorry, let me clarify.
By “lay down” I mean signal to Democratic leaders that passing legislation that is clearly unconstitutional is their preferred option.
You “lay down” by filing witness slips against the bill, but not doing much else. “Turn off” your grassroots lobbying efforts and lament “its on to the courthouse” after the measure passes.
In Springfield, there is “opposing” a bill and “fighting it tooth and nail.”
- Torn - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:13 pm:
“Where and when was that?”
That was at a small town in Fayette County around 1970. The person who registered me was a Democratic Party member. He filled out the paperwork, so I couldn’t really say for sure what he marked, only what I told him.
- titan - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:34 pm:
@Torn - I think what Wordslinger is getting at is that Illinois doesn’t (and hasn’t) had party registration. There isn’t anything on the registration form to mark as far as party preference goes. So no one here is a “registered” anything.
- Torn - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:41 pm:
@titan - I am not sure if it has always been that way though, but it doesn’t really matter anyway.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:53 pm:
Maybe the unions should back the GOP. Right now - and if I were a public union employee - I would say Bill Brady’s 10% haircut probably seems more appealing than what Pat Quinn and Mike Madigan have proposed this year. Another reason why Bill Brady may have been a better choice? Some people may think my reasoning is off, but Bill Brady is a businessman and is used to actually negotiating and striking a deal. He could’ve approached AFSCME in a quiet manner and noted the need to come up with a compromise to reform the systems. Instead, Quinn is loudly flapping his gums and Madigan is just acting like the tough guy at the bar who is waiting to mop up the knuckleheads in the other corner.
- jake - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:54 pm:
Although all the Democrats got booed, people should really distinguish between Quinn and the others. Quinn is the one who continually makes statements that he can’t back up, and proposals that he does not support. Quinn and Cullerton and essentially everybody else are much more careful both about what they propose and about how they follow up.
- wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 2:50 pm:
–Right now - and if I were a public union employee - I would say Bill Brady’s 10% haircut probably seems more appealing than what Pat Quinn and Mike Madigan have proposed this year.–
You think Brady could have pulled off his “plan” without the tax increase? That’s a fantasy.
However, because of the tax increase, vendors who are owed money, according to Bloomberg, are on a predictable five month cycle in late payments.
That’s sweet. That’s credit card juice you can count on, and beats anything else in the market. The docs, hospitals and such have to be very happy with that. Must be why they didn’t want to lower rates.
- Maxine - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 4:56 pm:
Interesting enought was Elliot Davis on our Legislators and their pensions, even Quinn bosted about them taking a furlough day! Check the link out. http://fox2now.com/2012/07/18/you-paid-for-it-illinois-legislators-pay/
- Shemp - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 4:57 pm:
@Yellow Dog:
===I’m not defending JD, but your argument, like Tom Cross’ argument against ending cost-shifting by school districts, assumes that there is 0% waste in local government and nowhere else left to cut.
I think that a review of the books will show otherwise.===
So local governments that are cutting fire and police have lots of waste left over, eh? Maybe there is that minority of cases, but in my circles we are all hurting and cutting things no one wants cut and raising property taxes to cover losses in local police and fire pension funds.
===Let local governments enact a sales tax if need be. They will be held accountable by their constituents for how that money is spent.===
Yeah, well for now, it’s referendum only and it’s only for an extra half cent. Maybe we could be accountable for setting up our own police and fire pensions that we have to fund even though the state sets the costs. Maybe we could have our own labor boards as well. That would help us save a lot of costs and wasted time too!
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 5:47 pm:
@Shemp-
Democrats will happily expand the sales tax powers of local government in exchange for ending the local share.
Heck, I’d go further and argue for an Indiana system that allows local counties to impose an income tax.
- PublicServant - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 6:49 pm:
Torn, I’m with you. After this stab in the back, I’ll feel free to vote independent of any party, and they certainly won’t get my support anymore.
- JoeMelugins - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:37 pm:
Recent news headline, “Sen. Brady: State pensions a ‘ponzi scheme’”
and from the story, a quote from Brady: “Everyone knows that this is a ponzi scheme that makes Bernie Madoff and John Law’s ponzi scheme pale in comparison. This is one of the biggest frauds on the people of Illinois,”
Pension participants have to compare that kind of thinking from the last Republican candidate for governor, with what Quinn and the Democrats are thinking.
- wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:03 pm:
–Recent news headline, “Sen. Brady: State pensions a ‘ponzi scheme’”–
He shouldn’t have said that. It’s really stupid. He doesn’t know what a ponzi scheme is. Or a pension system.
Sen. Dillard, do you want to put you big brain forward?