* From a press release by Illinois Education Association President Cinda Klickna…
A new scientific statewide poll shows that, despite years of hostile editorials, a well-funded public relations campaign and the non-stop efforts of anti-union “think tanks” to turn the public against education employees, more than two-thirds of Illinois voters (68%) believe that teachers should receive their pensions as they were promised, even when pressed about the state’s budget problems.
The percentage siding with teachers receiving their full pensions increases (71%) when voters learn that teachers are ineligible for Social Security and rises higher still (75%) when they hear that Springfield politicians failed to put money into the pension systems and spent it on their own priorities instead.
These data show the public understands that education employees are being reasonable when they argue that public employees should not be made to bear sole responsibility for fixing the pension mess.
A majority (58%) of voters believe the legislature is most to blame for the current pension deficit with only 5% laying blame at the feet of teachers.
When it comes to solutions, a majority (58%) considers cutting benefits to current retirees a very bad idea. Most think closing tax loopholes for corporations (54%) is a better solution.
* From the poll…
Which point of view do you agree with more: [RANDOMIZE]
IEA, the teachers’ union, helps the public schools by advocating for better education policies and helping teachers and staff.
IEA, the teachers’ union, hurts the public schools by protecting the jobs of bad teachers.
(WAIT FOR RESPONSE) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
* On to pensions…
As you may know, over the long run, there is an $83B deficit in Illinois for the pension systems. Who do you think is mostly to blame for most of the current pension systems deficit [RANDOMIZE] Governor Quinn, the Illinois legislature or the teachers and college faculty?
QUINN …………………………………………………….. 12%
LEGISLATURE …………………………………………. 58
TEACHERS AND COLLEGE FACULTY ………… 5
(ALL THREE) ……………………………………………. 13
(NONE OF THESE) …………………………………….. 5
(DON’T KNOW) …………………………………………… 7
* The public appears to support the teachers in this pension fight…
As we mentioned before, Illinois currently has a pension debt of $83B in unfunded pension liabilities for teachers and college faculty. Which statement comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]
Teachers and college faculty contributed to their pension from every paycheck, and should receive the pensions they were promised, despite these deficits.
Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.
(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?
And which of these statements comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]
Teachers and college faculty have done their part, never missing a payment of their share into the pension system. Plus, Illinois teachers do not get Social Security. They should receive the pensions they were promised, despite these deficits.
Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.
(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?
One last time. Which of these statements comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]
It is the politicians in Springfield who failed to meet their obligation by taking the money that should have gone to the pensions systems and spending it on their own pet projects. Teachers and college faculty should not be penalized and should receive the pensions they were promised.
Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.
(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?
* The public is initially opposed to the cost shift idea, but opponents come around when it’s phased in…
One other proposal that people have mentioned is to make local school districts, rather than the state, responsible for teacher pension plans, which are currently paid for by the state. [RANDOMIZE]
SUPPORTERS of this idea say that it would help the state address its pension crisis, and that local school districts should be responsible for teacher pensions since they negotiate the teacher contracts in the first place.
OPPONENTS of this idea say that the state has been responsible for teacher pensions for decades, and shifting that burden to local school districts would be an unfunded mandate that would result in much higher local property taxes or cuts to education at the local level.
After hearing both sides of the issue, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose making local school districts, rather the state, responsible for teacher pension plans?
[IF OPPOSE Q18=3-4]
And what if the change to make local school districts, rather than the state, responsible for teacher pension plans was phased in over ten years so that each year local school districts took more responsibility? Thinking again, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose making local school districts, rather the state, responsible for teacher pension plans?
* But the cost shift would still cost legislators votes…
Now I want to ask you abut your vote for state legislature. If a candidate for the Illinois legislature voted to change the pension system for teachers and college faculty so that the costs were shifted to local school districts would you be MORE or LESS likely to vote for that candidate? [IF MORE/LESS] And would you be much [MORE/LESS] or somewhat [MORE/LESS] likely to vote for that candidate?
* Methodology…
(T)elephone survey conducted among 600 frequent voters in Illinois. Interviews were conducted August 6-13, 2012. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
Discuss.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:15 am:
There’s a rather obvious question missing: Are you willing to pay more in taxes to ensure funding?
Everyone’s in favor of “closing corporate loopholes,” until you get to specifics.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:17 am:
Maybe the voters ARE smarter than we give them credit for …
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:19 am:
I wonder if the polling results would be different if other government workers were included, such as social services workers. Many people think such workers misuse tax dollars by giving money to those who don’t earn it.
- so.... - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:19 am:
Or: would you be willing to see other programs cut to ensure full funding?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:23 am:
This methodology is fatally flawed without including funding options.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:24 am:
===There’s a rather obvious question missing: Are you willing to pay more in taxes to ensure funding?===
The tax question response is coming soon. I’m putting together another post.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:24 am:
Yeah there are some other interesting questions that they might have asked but either they didn’t or didn’t share the results…
Also
Seems to be a bit of a loaded question IMHO, nothing wrong with that, but I would argue it isn’t neutral in it’s wording
- Reality Check - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:30 am:
I wonder if the polling results would be different if other government workers were included, such as social services workers.
The We Are One Illinois coalition did just such a poll last spring. http://www.weareoneillinois.org/documents/il-pensions-polling-memo.pdf
The results were strikingly similar to these, showing that despite a year of relentless misinformation and attacks, Illinois voters still think cutting public employees’ modest pensions–breaking promises, undermining retirement security–is wrong.
- Downstate - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:32 am:
Rich,
Can the general assembly still put a provision on the ballot for the fall that allows voters to rescind the constitutional provision regarding the pension?
Only thing better than a survey, is the actual vote!
- Fair and Balanced - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:38 am:
Some context: The most unpopular politician in Illinois has pledged a “grassroots” campaign to convince voters to cut teacher pensions, raise property taxes and throw retirees off the healthcare that was promised to them.
I think this poll shows he will have a tough climb ahead of him.
(A side note: no support for a cost shift even without mentioning that local property taxes would likely go up. I wonder what the results would be if respondents were told that the cost shift could mean higher property taxes.)
- illilnifan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:44 am:
===There’s a rather obvious question missing: Are you willing to pay more in taxes to ensure funding?===
Rich, I live in the middle of a large Tea Party cluster. I found it interesting that my neighbor (wearing her Tea Party T Shirt) said that she thinks government pensions need to be cut and she does not want her taxes raised to help fund them. When asked her pension source she said CPS and that system is fully funded and not a problem. She sees no reason she has to pay extra to fund systems that were not funded. It is so similar to the comments made like “keep the government out of my Medicare”. It is always another system or person that is the problem, it is never theirs.
It is this crazy thinking that many surveys don’t get at, so look forward to see the results of the tax survey outcomes.
I do believe the many people think that state retirees should get what is promised, but when it may cost them to pay for the mistakes of others, then the answer is often different.
I am tired of hearing cutting fraud and abuse will result in the magical dollars needed. Eliminating all fraud and abuse may save 10-20% of the costs but that will not make up for the mistakes made over the years.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:44 am:
===but I would argue it isn’t neutral in it’s wording ===
It’s not intended to be neutral. This is message testing.
- Jechislo - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:56 am:
Downstate - “Can the general assembly still put a provision on the ballot for the fall that allows voters to rescind the constitutional provision regarding the pension?”
I would think a constitutional amendment is the only way to change this.
And, if my understanding is correct, even changing this constitutional provision would only affect future retirees and employees, not current retirees and employees.
Rich?
- Steve Bartin - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 11:09 am:
This is all leading up to a plan to eliminate flat income taxation in Illinois in the state constitution. The teachers unions are strongly behind that. They want progressive income taxation because it makes it easier to raise the state income tax. If the teachers unions ,in California , can saddle those making $47,000 with a 9% state income tax: think of what the teachers would like to do here in Illinois. Real class conflict is here: those who pay taxes versus those WHOSE SALARIES COME FROM TAXPAYERS.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/03/class_conflict_in_obamas_ameri.html
- OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 11:11 am:
I get that it is message testing, but using message testing results as an indicator of general public opinion is a bit of a reach
- Ahoy! - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 11:21 am:
funny how poll results tend to favor whoever paid for them (same goes for the civic club).
I agree, the question should be, would you rather keep the income tax rate at 5% or reduce pension benefits that people earn going forward. Looking forward to Rich’s post concerning this.
- illilnifan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 12:14 pm:
to steve bartin….don’t forget public employees are taxpayers as well. We as citizens of the country are all interdependent. Those in private industry get their salaries from the products sold. Without people purchasing what you sell then there is no business. So you depend on the consumer to keep a business going. The product is priced so the business can pay salaries, provide benefits and make a profit to pay shareholders. If the price of producing the product increases then the cost of the product is passed on to the consumer.
Government provides a service to the community. Since it is not a profit making industry it needs to collect the funds to provide services through taxes. Taxes have to be set a realistic level to cover the cost of the salaries and benefits of the employees that provide the service. Absent that there is no fireman, public health worker, road plower, etc. The employees of government, like private industry need to receive wages that allow them to buy the goods and services created by private industry, so we can say we pay your salary.
The state of Illinois has not set a realistic tax level to fund the services it currently provides. Thus it borrowed from what it was to contribute for employee benefits for years, and now they can no longer borrow. The challenge ahead is to clearly identify the services that should be delivered, determine the realistic cost of providing services and then ensure sufficient revenue is generated from taxes to pay for the service. There also will have to be additional revenue collected to pay debts for borrowing.
Many states have used a graduated tax rate for years. California and Hawaii for example have very low property tax rates, but high income tax rates, so often it is a trade off. Illinois needs to get comprehensive tax reform completed so education can be shifted from the property tax to state funds, thus the need for a higher and more realistic state income tax.
- Steve Bartin - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 12:20 pm:
Government workers aren’t net taxpayers: their salaries come from the taxpayers. Can Illinois hire teachers who will work for less than $100,000 a year? With today’s hire unemployment , Yes. After all, Illinois has over 14,000 public school teachers that make over $100,000 a year.
http://www.championnews.net/2011/12/12/top-100-teacher-salaries-for-2011-phys-ed-teacher-heads-list-with-203154/
- geronimo - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 12:23 pm:
Well said, Illinifan. When a friend was complaining about paying for teacher salaries, other services and vehemently stating that she was paying their salaries, I reminded her that I and my family pay hers. We all frequent the hospital and medical services locally that put the money in her paycheck. The reality is we all are paying each others’ salaries. It’s just easier to see in your tax form or property tax bill but look at your checkbook and credit card statements and realize who you’re paying for.
- illilnifan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 12:38 pm:
Steve Bartin….what is a net taxpayer???? I earn an income and I pay Illinois state taxes on all of my income. I buy gas and pay state tax on all the gas I buy. I pay sales taxes on all the goods I buy and I pay property taxes on the value of my property. There are no reductions in these because I earn my salary in a government position. Yes all my income comes from the government, if that is what you mean by net. But in private industry all of your income is from the corporation. The corporation generates income from the goods sold. So your net income depends on me and others to buy the goods. Get over it…..we all depend on each other and absent one piece the whole system could collapse or break down.
The solution lies in finding a compromise. Most public servants recognize that and would be willing to do their part if everyone is willing to do theirs. So maybe a tax increase and some pay cuts and benefit reductions are in order, but both are needed to ensure balance and fairness.
- titan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 12:44 pm:
@steve bartin - could teachers be hired for less than $100k/year? Of course - they’re all hired at less than that. The $100k people are long term veterans.
In theory, any job would find willing applicants where the pay scale topped out below $100k per year - but do you want to watch the Cubs or Sox or Cards play those guys, or have those guys removing your appendix?
Pay scales work out the way they do for a reason.
- reformer - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 12:45 pm:
Downstate
It’s too late to be a proposed amendment on the ballot this November. The next opportunity is Nov. 2014.
Steve Bartin
Illinois currently has one of the most regressive state and local tax systems of any state. In other words, we soak the poor, taking a much higher proportion of their incomes than we do from the top 1%. Is that the kind of class warfare that concerns you?
- Liberty First - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 12:51 pm:
I think the next time I go to buy groceries, I’m going to ask the employees to contribute.
- geronimo - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 12:59 pm:
What is a net taxpayer?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 1:05 pm:
First, I’m never surprised when people who are adamantly opposed to the results of a poll respond by attacking the poll’s results.
Folks, this is the IEA, not some fly-by-night group or gadfly candidate looking for a cheap press pop.
I’ve used IEA polling in the past, and I can tell you it is extremely reliable.
That said, a couple of things about the poll.
First, it does seem that there is some daylight between public opposition to cutting teachers’ pensions and cutting state employee pensions. That doesn’t surprise me, since state employees are a pretty faceless lot, but most everybody knows a teacher, and most like them. Alot.
What surprises me is just how BIG the gap is. If I recall correctly, a more general poll on pension cuts was pretty evenly split in the low forties. Feel free to check the Simon Institute.
Secondly, I have to wonder aloud what the region crosstabs are, and how responses to the local contribution might have changed if voters knew that CPS already pays its pension costs and Chicago is immune from the threat of higher property taxes.
Thirdly, you can understand why Democrats want to split the pension vote and Republicans are looking for any excuse they can to postpone a vote on teacher pensions until the 5th of Never.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 1:36 pm:
Sorry, meant to say “attacking the poll’s methodology.”
Note that this is a benchmark poll of 600 frequent voters statewide.
I’ve seen polls with a smaller sample that include nonvoters trumpeted from the rooftops by media outlets.
This is about as reliable as it gets, even more reliable than ‘likely voter’ polls, because lots of folks who plan on voting never show up.
- Steve Bartin - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 2:12 pm:
To all:
A net taxpayers is someone who’s salary comes from consumers. Government workers who makes $80,000 a year and pay $20,000 in combined taxes aren’t NET taxpayers. Let get $60,000 from the government unlike most private sector workers. In fairness though: federal government workers get much higher pay. There are 459,016 federal workers who make over $100,000 in SALARY ! No wonder Washington D.C. is now the wealthiest metro area in America.
http://nalert.blogspot.com/2012/08/459016-federal-workers-who-make-over.html
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 3:10 pm:
@Steve Bartin -
By your logic, it would be reasonable to tax capital gains/investment income at 100 percent, since they didn’t really “work” for it.
Hey, while we’re at it, let’s deduct the actual government cost for roads, bridges, schools, and other infrastructure from the incomes of businesses that use them.
- geronimo - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 3:24 pm:
THe public might be “kinder” to teachers vs. public employees because the benefits in the different pension plans are different. Teachers do not get “free” healthcare in retirement. They pay in each paycheck for the potential to buy insurance from TRS when they retire. So they pay all along, then pay when they retire. That might be one thing that sets them apart.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 3:48 pm:
@geronimo -
I think you greatly overestimate the public’s understanding of the pension systems.
Most people probably don’t know anyone who works directly for state government. Most people do know at least one if not several teachers. Its much easier to stereotype and demonize people you don’t know.
- geronimo - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 4:03 pm:
YDD—-I absolutely agree with you. I’m surprised teachers aren’t the most demonized. To hear folks talk at social occasions around here, they’d have them publicly hanged for entertainment.
- Illinifan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 7:00 pm:
@steve Barton. A net taxpayer is someone who gets. Their income from consumers. This covers all income. Corporations get their income from consumers and then pass it through to their employees. Try another one.
- 1776 - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 8:35 pm:
If you knew that Susie beat her puppy and stole from kids, would you be more or less likely to vote for her.
Push polling at its finest!!!
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 10:18 pm:
@1776 -
You clearly don’t know what a “push” poll is. As Rich pointed out earlier, its a message testing poll. It tells the IEA — and now lawmakers — how this argument is likely to end after everyone has said their piece.
Hint: it doesn’t end well for those who want to slash teachers’ retirements.
- old man - Wednesday, Aug 22, 12 @ 7:22 am:
Old people are often victims of scam artists.Our legislators have been scamming us all for years. They have been promising to help pay for the pensions,but have been takeing the money for their own use. If they had paid the promised funds there would not be a need for all these polls and battles. Shouldn’t scam artists be arrested? Two of their leaders are in prison already. Maybe we should take a poll about this idea. By the way, CPS pension fund is not fully funded. They have been pulling the same tricks as the state. That is why Rahm Emanuel went to Springfield to suggest they remove the so called COLA, and eliminate health coverage. Then the city of Chicago could follow the state again.