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Teachers union demands pension chief resign

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From an Illinois Federation of Teachers press release…

Since 1939, the Illinois Teachers Retirement System (TRS) has done a tremendous public service in stewarding and safeguarding the life savings of the state’s teachers. The state benefits from a system where teachers–who do not collect Social Security–can avoid poverty in retirement. But, once again, the current executive director of TRS, Dick Ingram, has announced his personal views about diminishing key benefits for existing workers and retirees.

In an interview with Crain’s Chicago Business last week, Ingram focused his remarks, as he did in April, 2012, on reducing cost of living adjustments (COLAs). It is inappropriate for Mr. Ingram, who is responsible for safeguarding the retirement benefits of 360,000 teachers, to promote his personal views by advocating for the destruction of TRS members’ retirement security. Such actions contradict his fiduciary duty and are in violation of a resolution passed by the TRS Board of Trustees. Mr. Ingram’s insubordinate and irresponsible actions can only result in one honorable outcome—his resignation.

Mr. Ingram fails to mention in his many interviews that teachers in the system have already paid for the cost of living benefits he wants to cut—their payments are built into the contribution calculations they are required to make in every paycheck. In addition, it seems not to matter to Mr. Ingram that the Illinois Constitution expressly forbids the benefit cuts he finds so attractive. Mr. Ingram says the Constitution is “unfortunate.” We say it is just and fair.

Mr. Ingram may think that he can mislead the members of the TRS Board of Trustees into believing that his remarks do not violate their fiduciary responsibility or their own resolutions regarding TRS advocacy. We have more faith in the board members than that.

Mr. Ingram would like the public and other unions to believe his comments are merely an intellectual exercise and are not meant to promote his own preferred solutions to the pension crisis. To this we say, “We will not be fooled.” The Teachers Retirement System must work for its members, not the politicians, corporate executives, or newspapers its leaders may be bullied by.

When the fox is guarding the hen house, it is the fox that must go. Mr. Ingram has lost the trust of those he is employed to protect. He should resign from his position as TRS executive director.

* From the Crain’s article referenced in the press release

In an interview with Crain’s editors and reporters, Richard Ingram, executive director of the underfunded Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System, said state politicians will have few other options if they want to make meaningful progress on closing the gap between promised pension benefits and the available funding.

“Look at every other state that’s done pension reform – what have they done? They’ve changed the COLA because that’s where the cost is,” Mr. Ingram said, noting that 25 percent of TRS payments are for cost-of-living increases on pension benefits.

Changes in cost-of-living adjustments could be targeted so they have the least impact on the oldest retirees and those with the lowest incomes, he said.

“If that is where we need to go in Illinois, then we can do it in a manner that is targeted and effective and protects those that need it the most and, at least to a large extent, get the job done,” Mr. Ingram said.

  42 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new Tumblr site has been created called “Voter Shaming.” Here are a few of the posts…


* The Question: Any suggestions for future snarky “Voter Shaming” posts?

Have fun, but keep it strictly Illinois-centric, please. Also, try to keep it current. Thanks.

  41 Comments      


Plummer retracts ad claim

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The debate between congressional candidates Jason Plummer and Bill Enyart was apparently more of the same last night. Enyart demanded that Plummer released his tax returns, Plummer hammered Enyart over Nancy Pelosi.

Plummer also claimed more than once that Enyart had been forced to take down a campaign ad

Plummer claimed Enyart’s attack ads were pulled off the air because they were not honest.

More

Halfway through the debate, when asked to say what he found disappointing about his rivals, Plummer paused a moment while sizing up Enyart.

“Bill … I just expected a little bit more,” Plummer said. “I think the American people, the people of Southern Illinois, are thirsting for substantive conversations about the issues that are really impacting them … You’re never going to see a commercial for Jason Plummer yanked off the air because it’s not being honest … You’re never going to see us get in trouble for distorting anything.”

* Jason Rosenbaum of the St. Louis Beacon has the video. The claim starts at about one minute in

* I was quite surprised to see reporters writing that without question because I hadn’t heard about any ads being taken off the air, so I checked with Plummer’s campaign. The response…

Jason misspoke last night at the debate as to which groups ads had been pulled

Oops.

The Plummer spokesperson continued…

but frankly it’s unfathomable that Bill Enyart would not call on his Washington attack dogs to take down such outrageously false claims on the air. If Bill Enyart is willing to stand by these lies on the airwaves as a candidate now, Southern Illinois families can count on Bill Enyart’s continued dishonesty if sent to Congress.

There was so much said last night that wasn’t true from Bill Enyart. If you want to cover Jason’s misstep I think it is fully necessary to look at the false claims by Enyart. Here are just a few of the most egregious claims from Enyart last night:

Distortion #1: Lies in Advertising

On more than one occasion, Enyart tried to tie Plummer to a company that is under federal investigation. Enyart said that Plummer has received donations from this company, claiming that it made its profits illegally. Not only are Enyart’s allegations about the company false, but the claim has already been named a “Pants on Fire” lie by the non-partisan fact-checking site “Politifact.”

Distortion #2: Bankrolled by Nancy Pelosi

Enyart hates to admit it, but he has received campaign contributions from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. While he flatly denied it, evidence from several sources shows that the liberal former Speaker has donated to Enyart. She hosted a fundraiser for him and other Democrat candidates on Sept. 20 in Washington, D.C., and held another fundraiser for him in Chicago in October 7. On October 14, Pelosi is sending the most liberal Member of Congress, Jan Schakowsky, with close ties to Rod Blagojevich, the Chicago political machine, and a felon husband - to Southern Illinois for a fundraiser.

* The Enyart campaign has its own fact check…

False Claim #1: Plummer’s Secret Financial Record Is Somehow Public: Jason Plummer again refused to release his tax returns and falsely claimed that his financial information is all “public information.” The truth is that Plummer only filled out what was required by him by federal campaign law and refuses to disclose his tax rate, whether or not he paid taxes at all, if he holds offshore assets, or how as a 30 year old who reportedly earns less than $50,000 is worth millions.

False Claim #2: Plummer’s Tax Plan Doesn’t Reward Millionaires, Outsourcers: Plummer had the audacity to claim tonight that he”never endorsed tax cuts for companies that ship jobs overseas” and that he “doesn’t support tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.” The truth is that Plummer supports a tax plan that gives more tax breaks to millionaires He signed a pledge that protects tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas, and he praised the Ryan plan that protects tax breaks for the super-rich and outsourcers.

False Claim # 3: Plummer Is Running A Positive Campaign and Enyart’s TV Ads Were Pulled. Jason Plummer hasn’t run a single ad that focuses on positive information about himself to let voters learn more about who he is. Instead, he and his secret corporate allies have run smears so egregious that the Associated Press called them “misleading.” To be clear, NO Democratic ad has EVER been pulled in this race.

False Claim #4: Plummer & the Ryan Budget: Plummer can’t face tough questions about the fact that he praised a plan that would end the Medicare guarantee and force seniors to pay thousands more for their health care. Enyart is the only candidate in the race with the endorsement of the Committee to Protect and Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

False Claim #5: Plummer & Washington Party Leadership: Jason Plummer tried to claim he was the best candidate who stand up to Washington Party Leaders. Too bad he spent the better part of the day fundraising alongside Republican Party Leader Eric Cantor who has encouraged all candidates to “embrace” the Republican plan to end the Medicare guarantee.

* Anyway, these guys clearly don’t like each other

After some crosstalk, Enyart then said “most lieutenant junior grades will refer to somebody older than them as sir.” The line - used in previous debates - is a reference to Plummer’s service in U.S. Naval Reserve.

“I referred to Mr. Plummer as Mr. Plummer out of some modicum of respect,” said Enyart, who made the similar barb during previous debates.

* By the way, Plummer also said this

Plummer focused on a message of bringing jobs to Illinois and said his businesses have employed more than 1,000 people in the Metro East.

“I argue you send a small businessman to Washington, D.C.,” Plummer said.

Plummer’s father Bob most certainly employs a lot of people in Metro East. His RP Lumber stores are everywhere down there. But Jason? Not so much.

  19 Comments      


Schilling calls the cops and Biggert backs out

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Congressman Bobby Schilling’s campaign has filed a ludicrous complaint with the FEC

The Schilling campaign accused Bustos of illegally coordinating with the House Majority PAC in a complaint to the Federal Election Commission. […]

The Schilling campaign’s complaint says that the House Majority PAC is violating election law by using video the Bustos campaign put on YouTube in August in a new ad that targets Schilling. The complaint said use of the footage is illegal direct and in-kind contributions, and it asked for an investigation. […]

Andy Stone, a spokesman for the House Majority PAC, said it is on the right side of the law.

“The footage used in the ad is publicly available and was found on the Internet,” he said. “The FEC has made clear that using clips of a candidate’s footage is perfectly legal and does not violate the rule against redistribution of campaign materials.”

In a news release, the Schilling camp said Bustos who was breaking the law, too, by “illegally coordinating with the House Majority PAC.” The complaint filed with the FEC does not make that charge, however. Jon Schweppe, a Schilling spokesman, said the Bustos campaign put the video on the Internet and the House Majority PAC used it.

“We define that as coordination,” he said.

That’s goofy.

A video is posted online, somebody else uses it and that’s somehow illegal coordination?

C’mon, man.

…Adding… This is odd

Veteran Republican U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert has dropped out of a radio debate with Democratic challenger Bill Foster that was set for Oct. 16, saying a co-sponsor didn’t appear neutral.

At issue for Biggert is information from AARP and the organization’s logo appearing in liberal-sponsored television advertising and mailers that attacked her. Biggert announced her withdrawal from the debate in a statement Wednesday night. […]

Biggert, in part, questioned whether AARP can be a “neutral arbiter.”

* But it looks to me like Biggert was using this as an excuse to get out of the debate

One TV ad from last week, titled “Judy Biggert: Bankroll” and paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, attacked her for purportedly favoring tax cuts for the wealthy and “removing Medicare’s promise of secure health coverage.” AARP’s logo appeared in the spot, along with a note citing the organization for information.

But Heppner said AARP takes public positions on issues and can’t control how the information is used by others.

  9 Comments      


The Madigan factor

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The SJ-R endorsed a Republican House candidate today, and the reason appears to be Democratic candidate Sue Scherer’s position on House Speaker Michael Madigan

Scherer, a Decatur teacher who’s taking the school year off to campaign, has taken at least $248,000 from campaign committees controlled by House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, whose staff drew this district to elect a Democrat. The contributions alone raise serious questions about her independence.

But the mailers Scherer has allowed to be sent out on her behalf raise more than questions. They point to a person who has allowed her campaign to be dictated by Madigan campaign strategists — “the program,” as they like to call it.

Like every candidate this time of year, she talks about working with Republicans. But the mailers and the money strongly indicate that she would be a backbench legislator, casting votes to ensure Madigan is speaker for years to come.

Who will she vote for for speaker after getting all that Madigan money? The people of her district, she said, dodging the question.

If she’s a member of the House, Scherer will be asked to vote whether to pass rules that prevent the minority party from having its bills heard. She’ll be asked to vote whether to allow Madigan to bury such legislation. Democratic legislators, particularly those whose campaigns received aid from the speaker, seem to forget they were going to reach across the aisle when those votes are called. […]

Scherer seems well intentioned and talks passionately about education, a subject she knows well. But we cannot endorse someone who seems to think voters are stupid.

Give the Republicans credit, they’ve managed to inject the “Fire Madigan” theme into the race this year in a pretty big way. It’s effecting coverage of legislative races

In the campaign for the 84th state House seat, the name Michael Madigan keeps coming up.

The Republican running for the open seat in the newly drawn district, Pat Fee of Aurora, says Madigan must be replaced as speaker of the House before Illinois legislators from both parties will be able to work together on solutions to the state’s biggest problems. […]

“There will be no working together. He (Madigan) rules it the way he wants it ruled and this is where we are today,” Fee said. “What Michael Madigan wants to do is shift it (pension costs) over to the schools. Guess where that’s going? To the taxpayers. This can’t be. You’re a Michael Madigan-backed candidate, and are you going to vote for Michael Madigan to be speaker?”

In an endorsement interview and candidate questionnaire for the Daily Herald, Kifowit, 40, did not indicate if she would vote for Madigan as speaker. She said she is being supported by the Democratic Party, and campaign finance records submitted to the Illinois State Board of Elections show she has received donations from the Democratic Majority, the Democratic Party of Illinois and a $40,000 contribution from Friends of Michael J. Madigan.

* The Daily Herald’s editorial board appears to have bought almost all the way in to the GOP/Tribune’s anti-Madigan war. From its endorsement of David McSweeney over Dee Beaubien

Beaubien has been criticized for accepting money from House Speaker Michael Madigan and thereby beholding herself to him and Democrats. She responds that she has received money from independent Republicans as well. But the larger issue for us is her unwillingness to reveal which caucus she would align herself with in Springfield. Voters cannot know what they would get when she keeps her cards so close the vest.

* And Rep. Sid Mathias (R-Buffalo Grove) has a new TV ad which reminds voters that a vote for his opponent is a vote for Mike Madigan

There’s more, but you get the drift.

  19 Comments      


Ricketts says Cubs “working day and night to put together a championship organization”

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chicago Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts penned an op-ed for the Sun-Times

Well, the baseball season of 2012 is in the books. It was a disappointing season, but I hope fans understand there are better days ahead. We bought this team because we are committed to delivering Cubs fans the World Series championship they deserve. We believe this season represents the first step to delivering on that promise.

Baseball Operations President Theo Epstein, General Manager Jed Hoyer and the entire Cubs organization are working day and night to put together a championship organization — from A-ball to the major league club. We are building the team toward a future of sustained success with a youth movement. We are investing in our player development system, both in terms of talent and facilities. We are building a nucleus of solid young players to perform around shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo.

Have at it.

  39 Comments      


Quinn to appeal injunction

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This preliminary injunction is basically just replaces the judge’s temporary restraining order. It’s not really all that new

An Alexander County judge sided with the state’s largest employee union Wednesday, blocking Gov. Pat Quinn from closing prisons, halfway houses and youth detention facilities.

Associate Circuit Court Judge Charles Cavaness issued an injunction that keeps a hold on the closure of prisons in Dwight and Tamms, a youth facility in Murphysboro and adult transition centers in Decatur and Carbondale.

Quinn, who wants to close the facilities as part of a budget-cutting plan he outlined in February, could appeal the decision or await action on budget-related issues by the General Assembly when lawmakers convene in late November for the fall veto session.

The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 31 argued that moving violent inmates out of Tamms and into an already crowded prison system could endanger prison employees.

* But Gov. Pat Quinn plans to appeal

Quinn spokesman Abdon Pallasch said delaying the closures, most of which were scheduled for Aug. 31, is costing the state $7 million a month it doesn’t have. Pallasch said the administration plans to appeal the ruling to the Illinois Supreme Court.

Cavaness agreed with AFSCME’s argument that Quinn’s changes, such as closing Tamms and transferring highly troublesome inmates to the maximum-security prison at Pontiac, are so drastic they require adjustments to contractual working conditions. Particularly in a prison system designed for 33,700 inmates but holding more than 49,000.

In the order, Cavaness again agreed that AFSMCE had shown the closures “have the potential to make the prisons that remain more dangerous for employees.” He had made that statement a month ago when he issued a temporary prohibition on closures. Quinn appealed that decision to a state appellate court but lost and that appeal remains before the Supreme Court.

That action resulted from an independent arbitrator’s ruling in late August that Quinn had violated the AFSCME contract by not negotiating the impact of the closures on working conditions.

  22 Comments      


America’s natural gas producers are committed to protecting America’s air, land, and water

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Although all energy development comes with risks, Americaís natural gas producers are committed to protecting America’s air, land, and water. Across the country, advance in technology:

    * Protect air, by reducing emissions and monitoring air quality near drilling sites;

    * Protect land, by reducing our production footprint and helping to create thousands of acres of wildlife preserves; and

    * Protect water, through conservation and recycling technologies, and the use of reinforced cement and steel-encased drilling systems that go thousands of feet below fresh-water tables.

That’s smarter power today. Go to ANGA.US to learn more about our safe and responsible development practices.

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Shocker poll has Walsh barely leading Duckworth

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a Joe Walsh press release…

With less than four weeks until Election Day, Joe Walsh is in the lead over Tammy Duckworth in the race for Congress in Illinois’ 8th District by 1.5% according to a flash poll taken Tuesday, October 9th. The poll was commissioned by ChampionNews.net.

The poll showed Walsh with 47.4% of the vote to Duckworth’s 45.9%, with only 6.7% undecided. This while Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in the 8th District by 4.6%: 49% to 44.4%. Walsh’s lead stems mainly from his huge advantage amongst independents, where he leads Duckworth by 10% (51% - 41%). Walsh has a 12% lead among male voters and trails by only 3% among female voters. […]

The automated poll was conducted by We Ask America on Tuesday, October 9th. 1,171 responses were collected, resulting in a margin of error of 2.9%. The full poll summary report can be viewed here.

Keep in mind when reading the internals that We Ask America gives unweighted numbers on its crosstabs. So, while you’ll see that slightly more Republicans than Democrats were interviewed, that’s not how the numbers end up when the final weighting is done.

Also, yes, Jack Roeser paid for this poll. But I’ve been using WAA for a few years now and I’m going to be using them a whole lot more in the coming year (stay tuned for an official announcement), and they do good work. They were the only outfit that caught Bill Brady’s late 2010 primary surge, for instance. And their legislative polling in the primary was quite good.

Just about every time I post a poll, commenters’ tinfoil hats come out in abundance. This is legit. Deal with it.

* Here’s what WAA has to say about its latest poll of the Virginia Senate race

Any time our numbers go that much against the grain of conventional wisdom, you can bet on us re-visting the race soon. But we decided to publish the results because there’s something interesting going on in Virginia and other states. There is a significant percentage of voters who are shifting their self-described political party affiliation; we refer to them as lane changers. People who are strict party loyalists sometimes find it disconcerting that affiliations can shift like this. In truth, its probably more accurate to simply call these lane changers Independents, but we’ve seen a lot of it lately, and that may why so many are wringing their hands about pollsters’ mix of GOP/Dem/Ind in their polls.

In our opinion, those who try to shape their samples based on the 2008 presidential mix are missing the boat. While digging into the reasons our numbers are different–and out of curiosity–we weighted the raw numbers out of Virginia based on that 2008 presidential ratio. Lo and behold…it moves Kaine AHEAD by four points, about the same lead the the Real Clear Politics average is showing in this race. That doesn’t mean that other pollsters are using the wrong mix, but it makes us wonder.

* Meanwhile, allegations made by Walsh against Duckworth during this week’s debate has drawn some media attention

As the head of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs, congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth is accused of firing an employee after the woman filed a complaint against her supervisor.

Duckworth allegedly told the woman: “If you do your job and keep your mouth shut and concentrate on job duties, you will keep your job,” according to a lawsuit pending in a Downstate court. The Illinois Attorney General’s office, which is defending Duckworth, has filed a request to again dismiss the lawsuit.

The original complaint was dismissed from federal court but was again filed in state court, now being handled out of the First Judicial District in Union County. The initial attorney who handled the case for the whistleblower said it was dismissed because of “jurisdictional issues.”

It was Duckworth’s opponent, Joe Walsh, a Tea Party Republican, who flagged the lawsuit in front of more than 1,000 people in a Tuesday night debate in Rolling Meadows. Walsh did it to many “boos” in the raucous audience, but made it known that Duckworth, a Democrat, had a December pending court date.

The disclosure caused a stern retort from Duckworth campaign manager Kaitlin Fahey, who called Walsh a “financially irresponsible deadbeat.”

* But

A look at the lawsuit reveals it’s not classified as a wrongful termination suit. The complaint is about allegations that Duckworth and a colleague violated the state’s ethics act and inflicted intentional emotional distress. And the two workers still have their jobs.

* And I’m not sure I agree with this lede

Turns out, U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh probably would have won the bet.

Democrat Tammy Duckworth didn’t take the Republican congressman up on a wager he laid out at their Tuesday night debate — but if she had, it sounds like she would have lost.

The proposed bet involved Chicago Prime Steakhouse in Schaumburg.

Walsh insisted that the restaurant owner was concerned about how Obama­care affected his business.

Duckworth said she also had talked to the restaurant owner and had heard a different story. She accused Walsh of talking too much and not listening.

I’m pretty sure Walsh said the company would be bankrupted by Obamacare. Duckworth said the company would have to lay off a few employees to get it under the 50-worker cap to avoid having to provide health insurance. Here’s the restaurant’s full response

So that we do not have to respond individually to the high volume of reporters who have contacted us in the last 24 hours, we thought we would just respond with the following statements.

First, we would like to thank both Tammy Duckworth and Joe Walsh for attending and mentioning our round table discussions held at our restaurant, Chicago Prime Steakhouse in Schaumburg, Il, last evening during their spirited debate. My father George Kalkounos and I appreciate your friendship, and both of you along with all of your supporters are always welcome to our restaurant.

Allow me to preface my comments by sharing that I do not have a political axe to grind. I am not speaking as a partisan, I am simply speaking a businessman, and concerned citizen who has a business to protect, a wonderful family to provide for and a hard-working staff to answer to.

The idea of health benefits for employees is a significant consideration that we take seriously. Based purely as a business owner, the AHCA would impose a significant added expense without contributing any added revenue. Plainly speaking the Affordable Health Care Act, as I understand it to be written, is NOT affordable to this small business.

The math is simple, these new rules are creating costs for businesses like our own who already struggle in this economy and we have to treat it as any other expense and attempt to curtail it as much as possible.

I can say that I am assuaged by the fact that both Ms. Duckworth and Mr. Walsh agree that our restaurant will suffer under the new changes implemented by the AHCA and they both want to do something about it. It is of great concern that government is imposing a penalty on businesses that may not be able to afford health care. It burdens entrepreneurs like us that take the risk of leveraging assets and sacrifice time away from their families to create, open and operate a successful business in today’s climate. The AHCA as written goes against supporting our business growth.

As it relates to AHCA, you ask me if my business is better off before it or after, the answer is obviously before. Both candidates agree with this and I am hopeful that this specific issue gets resolved immediately.

  51 Comments      


STOP THE SATELLITE TV TAX!

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

The cable industry is asking lawmakers to place a NEW 5% tax on satellite TV service. HB 5440 is not about fairness, equity or parity – it’s a tax increase on the 1.3 million Illinois families and businesses who subscribe to satellite TV. They cannot afford another NEW tax – not now and not in this economy!

HB 5440 Will Hurt Illinois Families and Small Businesses

    • Satellite TV subscribers will see their monthly bills go up 5%.
    • This tax will impact every bar, restaurant and hotel that subscribes to satellite TV service, which will translate into higher prices, decreased revenues, and fewer jobs.
    • Rural Illinois has no choice: In many parts of Illinois, cable refuses to provide TV service to rural communities. Satellite TV is their only option.

HB 5440 Is Not About Parity or Fairness

    • Cable’s claim that this discriminatory tax is justified because satellite TV doesn’t pay local franchise fees could not be further from the truth. Cable pays those fees to local towns and cities in exchange for the right to bury cables in the public rights of way—a right that Comcast and Charter value in the tens of billions of dollars in their SEC filings.
    • Satellite companies don’t pay franchise fees for one simple reason: We use satellites—unlike cable, we don’t need to dig up streets and sidewalks to deliver our TV service.
    • Making satellite subscribers pay franchise fees—or, in this case, an equivalent amount in taxes—would be like taxing the air It’s no different than making airline passengers pay a fee for laying railroad tracks.

Tell Your Lawmakers to Stop The Satellite TV Tax

Vote NO on HB 5440

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A registered voters poll? In October?

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It’s October 11th. Election day is less than four weeks away. Yet the Tribune’s pollster is still surveying registered voters? That’s not great

With national surveys showing the contest between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney tightening, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows the home-state president retains a comfortable advantage in Illinois even though the economy has drained some of the enthusiasm.

Obama scored 55 percent support to 36 percent for Romney, virtually identical to a similar poll in February before Romney had clinched the nomination.

This poll isn’t worth a whole lot unless you factor in the fact that registered voters tend to lean more Democratic than likely voters.

So, with that in mind, here’s a real problem for the Democrats…

…Obama’s slipping support among white suburban women. The voting group, which is considered politically moderate, favored Obama 63 percent to 30 percent eight months ago. Now Obama’s backing has fallen to 50 percent, with 43 percent backing Romney.

That’s not good news for Democrats. White suburban women are the key to statewide races.

* Not that Obama is gonna lose Illinois, but his performance will impact down-ballot candidates. For instance

The poll asked a generic congressional support question. In Chicago and suburban Cook County, large majorities of voters said they would vote for an unspecified Democratic candidate for Congress. Even in the Republican-rich collar counties, 48 percent of voters said they’d side with a Democrat compared with 41 percent for a GOP contender.

That dynamic could help Democrats in three suburban contests: the northwest and west suburban 8th District, where Democrat Tammy Duckworth is challenging freshman Republican Rep. Joe Walsh, the north suburban 10th District where Democrat Brad Schneider is pitted against freshman GOP Rep. Robert Dold, and the far west and southwest suburban 11th District, where former Democratic Rep. Bill Foster is running against veteran Republican Rep. Judy Biggert. Chicago TV is full of millions of dollars in attack ads as interest groups try to sway voters.

But there also are three hard-fought congressional contests Downstate. Outside the Chicago region, 48 percent of voters said they’d side with a generic Republican, compared with 42 percent who preferred a Democrat. That lay of the land could help Republicans retain two seats and pick up a third now held by a retiring Democrat.

Again, adjust those Democratic numbers down and you can see the problem here.

  8 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Oct 11, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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