Fun with numbers
Wednesday, Nov 7, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From 12:45 this morning…
Dr. David Gill’s campaign manager Sherry Greenberg issued the following statement on the current status of the congressional race in Illinois 13th District:
“Rodney Davis jumped the gun and gave a premature victory speech in Taylorville less than an hour ago. In a campaign marred by lies and distortions, Mr. Davis continued his strategy of misleading the voters.
From what we now know from our discussions with county clerks’ offices, there are a significant number of ballots still outstanding in Macon County. We believe we need to keep counting ballots.
Dr. Gill intends to speak to supporters when the results from these remaining 9 precincts have been reported by election officials. The voters of the 13th Congressional District deserve nothing less. “
* From about 11:30 this morning…
IL 13 Outcome Still Uncertain
Central Illinois Congressional Race Is One of the Closest in the Nation
Gill for Congress campaign manager Sherry Greenberg issued the following statement this morning after Macon County tallies for all precincts were reported by the County Clerk’s office.
“The results from Macon County prove this is one of the tightest congressional races in the nation. Rodney Davis currently leads David Gill by less than half a percentage point districtwide. Dr. Gill is getting some much-needed rest and spending time with his family today while we explore all the legal options available to the campaign to ensure there was a full and fair count of every ballot cast. Today, we will be looking at the impact of provisional ballots on the totals and working to ensure that no one who tried to vote in this election was left out.”
The AP shows Davis leading Gill by 1,287 votes.
* Now, let’s go back a few months, to the day after the March, 2012 primary…
Though Bloomington physician David Gill has claimed victory in the Democratic 13th Congressional District primary, opponent Matt Goetten said he is waiting for all the absentee votes to be counted.
Unofficial totals have Gill with 15,507 votes to Goetten’s 15,364 votes.
Macoupin County made up the last 61 precincts to come in after 4 a.m. Wednesday. Goetten, who is Greene County state’s attorney, won the county handily with 2,144 votes to Gill’s 1,262.
It apparently wasn’t enough to overcome Gill’s margin, but absentee ballots mailed on time can be counted up to 14 days after the election.
The victor will face U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson, an Urbana Republican, who easily won the Republican primary Tuesday.
Gill said Wednesday morning that he wasn’t sure how many absentee ballots were out there. “In talking with a couple of people who have been through this stuff before; 143 (votes) is a lot to make up,” he said. [Emphasis added]
So, 143 votes is “a lot to make up,” but 1,287 votes isn’t?
It’s probably time to concede.
- 1776 - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:57 am:
Matt Goetten is getting ready to announce. Gill better concede quickly so he can announce a 5th attempt at the office and beat Goetten to the punch.
- Don't Worry, Be Happy - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:00 pm:
To be fair, if you look at the margin as a percentage of the vote, it’s about the same. That said, it’s probably a bit much on Gill’s part.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:05 pm:
Perhaps he and Mr. Plummer can meet somewhere in the middle for a bi-partisan pity party over lunch.
- Anon from Champaign County - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:07 pm:
Every district gerrymandered to elect a democrat won at every level of government except for David Gill. David may be the nicest man in America but I hope he takes a hint and allow democrats to elect someone who can win in 2 years.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:08 pm:
Another thought that goes along with the Plummer post earlier. Stop hiding behind managers and spokespeople. If you’re not going to concede at this point come out and say it yourself if you have a spine. This goes for both of them.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:10 pm:
This is certainly a race for which Rodney Davis can keep his head high. This humble civil servant can now join the ranks of elected leaders and hit the ground running on our most important issue: a flag-burning amendment! After all, it was the first “issue” Davis mentioned after being selected by the 13th district’s local party bosses.
- shore - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:11 pm:
Sherry Greenberg is an LA based political consultant who’s spent most of her career working on california races and in dc helping the ca-dem delegation get re-elected, not the best choice for a central illinois race.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:17 pm:
Who’s in for 2014? Frerichs? Manar? Soon-to-be former Champaign county board member Brendan McGinty? That guy Mark Lee who was going to run against Hoffman but didn’t when Hoffman was going to run but didn’t?
- Esteban - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:04 pm:
Rodney may want to cnsider adding John Hartman to his Christmas card list.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:05 pm:
Not sure there are any uncounted precincts now remaining in Macon County.
- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:21 pm:
Get on your broom and go back to LA, Sherry, this one is ovah.
- CU Voter - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:35 pm:
LA consultant—FAIL
Sue Scherer?
- Jaded - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:02 pm:
Seriously? The GOP wins 1 race yesterday in Illinois, and they won’t even concede that one. Talk about being greedy.
- Just Observing - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:30 pm:
I know nothing about Sherry Greenberg and haven’t followed this race closely, but simply that Gill probably lost doesn’t mean she failed or did a poor job. Perhaps she saved Gill from crushing defeat.
- wayward - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:42 pm:
Basically yeah — she and DCCC worked really hard, and it’s a tough situation because Davis ended up ahead but only by a fraction of a percent. That’s still > 1000 votes, though. I’m not sure how many absentee or provisional ballots are out there.
- concerned decatur - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:46 pm:
Gill may have been too unmodulated a populist for the district. The focus should have been on preserving the social safety net, not soaking the rich. Becuase of the primary fight he did start at a huge financial deficit and it took a long time for national demcorats to support him; he certainly did not have the establishment support from the get go to Bustos, Schneider, Foster and Duckworth. Still a loss is a loss.
- T.J. - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:55 pm:
Gill is a textbook example of doing everything wrong with the wind at your back. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if Urbana Democrats nominated him a fifth time for this seat.
- wayward - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:57 pm:
Honestly, I think if he’d started out with a strong campaign manager and experienced advisors, he would have had a fighting chance. But he didn’t have much money, and I don’t think the establishment initially saw him as a serious candidate. Gill’s a great guy, and he had a lot of people onboard who really liked him. Unfortunately, most of them had never really run a campaign of that scale.
- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 4:17 pm:
Plummer reax to Davis/Gill, with creative props to Oswego Willy:
“Look at that Dad! His Dad only owns a few McDonald’ses and he could buy his Son a Lt. Congressman Job. All our Lumber Yards is a lot more than McDonald’ses right? Dad?
Hey, speaking of McDonald’s, can we go get a Big Kidz Happy Meal? They have Hot Wheels toys now! I love Hot Wheels!”
- Jake From Elwood - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 5:16 pm:
Gill is just ticked that he missed the “No Democrat Left Behind” General Election of 2012.
- On the Real - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 6:08 pm:
Gov Quinn should be on the phone offering him a job soon, just as he did with Seals, Bean, and Harper.
- Angry Chicagoan - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 6:36 pm:
It struck me as kind of a district mismatch in terms of temperament and presentation if not necessarily policy; you’re effectively running Alan Grayson in a district that expects Andy Griffith.
- TooManyJens - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 9:01 pm:
Andy Griffith? Really?
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:11 pm:
I’ll echo a few earlier posters. You have to wonder if this couldn’t have been put in the bag had the DC folks backed Gill from the start. Their primary complaint seemed to be that had had lost in previous races. But, since this was a new district and most of the overlap from the old district was Gill’s base of support, he would seem to have been a good pick. But what do I know?