The Dold loss, not living in the district it seemed he had the best ads on TV and they were not able to sling a ton of mud at him where I thought the ads about his opponent not reporting any income from his business were effective.
There wasn’t a lot that surprised me. Biggert has looked off for a few years and you saw in her concession speech this was going to be her last race anyway.
Dold. Guys like schneider used to lose 2-1 in that area. There’s no excuse for that defeat. Also thought arie friedman would do better. notsomuch.
@OneMan
Apparently, those advertisements about Schneider’s business experience didn’t sit well with people in the district who are investment and consulting professionals according to the Tribune.
I don’t think I can point to one specific race as the biggest surprise to me. The biggest surprise, in my opinion, is the margin of victory for most of what we all thought would be nail biter races. There were just some blowouts last night that I don’t think anyone saw coming.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:37 am:
My biggest surprise last night was that there were no surprises. Candidates who I expected to win won. The Tammys and Elizabeth Warren were ahead in the polls, as was the president in battleground states. I wasn’t sure about Illinois’ constitutional amendment, but I’m not surprised that it was defeated. I saw Vote No ads prominently displayed in places like the New York Times and Real Clear Politics. It was a great campaign.
The last thing I remember reading on your site was that Jennifer Bertino Tarrant was floundering, the team was disenchanted and she was down. Yet she beat Plainfield Village Trustee Peck for the 49th Senate District seat.
- Just Observing - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:43 am:
@Precinct Captain
Not sure if I would consider Schneider’s campaign manager the best authority to offer an opinon on that.
Don’t think a campaign manager has ever said after a win “That was a good attack on us, if I was them I would use it again in 2 years”
Not sure how many consulting and investment professionals had zero revenue. If you are a consulting professional and don’t have any revenue you are just playing in your basement.
That is a bit like me saying I am a professional curler even though I don’t manage to generate any revenue from it. Would let me write off my broom, but it would also be BS.
Dold. I thought his ads were great. I expected him to hold that seat for as long as he wanted it.
Now that the seat has flipped, it will be a massive battle for the GOP to re-take it.
The other one was Skip. I thought personal popularity would carry the day.
- Max Bialystock - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:56 am:
A Cook Circuit Court judge fell just short of the required 60 percent on the retention ballot. A few others just barely squeaked over the line. Perhaps this is a glimmer of the possibility of a beginning of the retention system actually working.
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:01 pm:
Schneider’s win.
I had thought that the Democrats blew it in redistricting by giving Schakowsky in the 9th too much of a favorable D district, rather than putting more Ds into the 10th.
Cullerton beating Pankau. It looked like Ramey’s troops in the west part of the district did nothing to help her while Cullerton’s troops were quite active in that heavily GOP portion.
Biggest surprise of the night for me was how heavily my area went Democratic (Bolingbrook). Even in 2008 I don’t recall seeing such a heavy D margin of victory.
“Now that the seat has flipped, it will be a massive battle for the GOP to re-take it.”
Kirk won the district by 12 points. Schneider was a very unimpressive candidate buoyed by gerrymandering, obama turnout, dold spending 2009-mid 2012 running as a kennilworth moderate conservative instead of a lake county kirk moderate.
Dold. With the money behind him and his attempt to appear independent of his former Republican friends, I thought he’d win. But, the Obama turnout did him in.
Congressional surprise: Dold losing, Foster winning by such a big margin
State Senate surprise: Melinda Bush getting the win
State Rep surprise: Conroy’s big win, McSweeney’s big win
Shore,
1) Dold is not Kirk;
2) The district is not the same;
3) GOP primaries inevitably push a candidate to the right, and a candidate to the right cannot win that district.
Nobody on the losing side wants to deal with reality the day after a loss but that’s the reality.
It is too bad. If I lived in the district, I probably would have supported Dold.
But he needs to go on to the next chapter in his life, and the GOP needs to realize that it is going to be an extremely difficult challenge to take this one back.
As I noted late last week, none of the federal races surprised me. Granted, I didn’t think the top six GOP targets would go one for six, but after seeing the wave in 2010, it’s no shock the wave collapsed backwards.
I am surprised that Carole Pankau and Joe Neal lost. Garrett Peck’s loss was not as much of a surprise given the overall bent of the district. After DPI spent a small fortune to defeat Skip, his loss is not a surprise, either.
I am surprised just how eerily accurate Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) was in predicting the Presidential outcome and the other races. This solidifies him as the definitive expert on predicting election outcomes for the foreseeable future.
Derrick Smith and / or Jessie Jackson Jr. I guess that was when I felt that maintaining the integrity of the electoral process was akin to pushing a boulder up a mountain. And, yes I do realize that these two guys are innocent until proven guilty. But it made it seem that the bar has been “set so low” (in my opinion) that other voters have to look up to look down.
@Skeeter - I don’t know, I think its conceivable that Dold could win a rematch, despite the new Democratic lean of the district. In 2014, with 2 years of votes to defend, a mid-term turnout that is less favorable to Democrats than general elections, and the history of the district, it is reasonable to believe that Dold could overcome the thin margin he lost by. It may depend on the strength of the GOP gubenatorial candidate and how much that can drive Republican turnout.
For as Red of states they are, Indiana and Missouri turning their backs on Mourdock and Akin. There are Red states where those comments would not have mattered (Oklahoma, for example). They did in Indiana (where Donnelly is the first Democratic senator not named Bayh since the 1970s) and Missouri.
I kinda disagree with you here. The onus is on Republicans to lay out our plans and teach and lead on our principles. Romney only really pressed on this in the final weeks of the campaign (thanks Sandy for taking away a week of time). I don’t believe voters were ever presented with a time of instruction on what a conservative plan of governance really means, to the voters, their children and their pocketbooks. It’s a Republican problem I can accept. Voters bought the propaganda, granted. Who’s fault is that?
Voting for the guys that spent the last four years creating jobs and killing terrorists? What an amazingly selfish act by those voters. It is almost like voters demand jobs and security.
- Chevy owner/Ford County - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:57 pm:
There were several surprising Democratic senate wins but none moreso than North Dakota electing Heidi Heitkamp. She ran a nearly flawless campaign…but North Dakota? Seriously?
Max B
Which Cook County judge failed to be retained? I check the numbers at both Orr’s office and the City Board of Elections and all were retained as far as I can tell.
* Every legislator who voted for the temporary income tax was re-elected, including two suburbanites, Nekritz and Kotowski.
* Deb Conroy winning the first all-DuPage Democratic seat by 16 points. Shaw worked his magic again.
* Judge Cynthia Brim, who has been suspended from the bench since she was charged with battery against a deputy, easily won retention, carrying both the ‘burbs and the City by over 60%.
To approximately 1/2 of U.S. Citizens, I am sorry you and your state have poised the America I love so much, in a position moving towards socialization of medicine, a weaker defense, a less productive society, that does not comprehend a strong work ethic, the personal reward and greater financial independence. Pray for America!!
Yeah, unlike those patriotic millionaires and billionaires who pay no taxes. Oh, that’s right he lost.
- Maxine on Politics - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 5:21 pm:
Sorry, this is not from Illinois but it is to our benefit. The prop for Missouri cig tax FAILED. My assumption was that it would due to the fact that large numbers of people in IL are buying them there, buying gas, and a bite to eat. Wake up Illinois!
I followed Nate Silver because, as a scientist, it seems to me his statistical methods for analyzing poll data are sound and superior to anybody else’s. As it happens, every US Senate candidate he said was likely to win did win, and every state in the nation went for the Presidential candidate that Nate said was more likely to carry the state. Florida remains too close to call, and it was the one state that Nate called a 50-50 tossup. It also appears he predicted the popular vote margin correctly within one percentage point. So nothing on the national level surprised me. On the state level, I was surprised and pleased that the Democrats achieved a supermajority in both chambers of the GA. This should clear the way for getting a graduated income tax Constitutional Amendment on the 2014 ballot, so that hopefully the 5% flat tax can be replaced by a graduated tax when it expires in 2015.
VanillaMan, thanks for making my prediction come true. You nailed it. Pure genius. You sir should be the one to lead your party to its destiny. Your commentary almost leaves me speechless. Almost.
- Holdingontomywallet - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 7:08 pm:
Chris Matthews saying, “I’m so glad we had that storm last week”. Priceless….
Jake
Every House Dem would have to vote Yes to put a graduated income tax amendment on the ballot. There are downstate conservatives who might be hard to persuade, even though they have few residents who would pay the higher taxes. I wonder if Madigan would put all his targets on that vote?
- amalia - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:28 am:
U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin. From a statewide referendum on marriage in Wisconsin, to a U.S. Senator who is open about being a lesbian. It’s stunning.
- OneMan - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:30 am:
The Dold loss, not living in the district it seemed he had the best ads on TV and they were not able to sling a ton of mud at him where I thought the ads about his opponent not reporting any income from his business were effective.
- shore - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:32 am:
There wasn’t a lot that surprised me. Biggert has looked off for a few years and you saw in her concession speech this was going to be her last race anyway.
Dold. Guys like schneider used to lose 2-1 in that area. There’s no excuse for that defeat. Also thought arie friedman would do better. notsomuch.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:34 am:
@OneMan
Apparently, those advertisements about Schneider’s business experience didn’t sit well with people in the district who are investment and consulting professionals according to the Tribune.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-dold-schneider-election-result-illinois-10th-district-20121106,0,301022,full.story
- In 630 - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:34 am:
Foster’s margin. He’s not remotely dynamic personally. But clearly he’s smart enough to insist on a very smart campaign.
- Will Caskey - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:34 am:
Foster’s gaudy win margin. All the polling had it tied or slightly not tied. New district will take a while to model it seems.
- Boone's is Back - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:37 am:
Tom Cullerton defeating Carole Pankau- icing on the cake for Senate Dems.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:37 am:
I don’t think I can point to one specific race as the biggest surprise to me. The biggest surprise, in my opinion, is the margin of victory for most of what we all thought would be nail biter races. There were just some blowouts last night that I don’t think anyone saw coming.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:37 am:
My biggest surprise last night was that there were no surprises. Candidates who I expected to win won. The Tammys and Elizabeth Warren were ahead in the polls, as was the president in battleground states. I wasn’t sure about Illinois’ constitutional amendment, but I’m not surprised that it was defeated. I saw Vote No ads prominently displayed in places like the New York Times and Real Clear Politics. It was a great campaign.
- walkinfool - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:40 am:
Foster’s margin. Schneider’s win. Sente’s easy win.
- tubbfan - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:40 am:
The last thing I remember reading on your site was that Jennifer Bertino Tarrant was floundering, the team was disenchanted and she was down. Yet she beat Plainfield Village Trustee Peck for the 49th Senate District seat.
- Just Observing - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:43 am:
Dold’s defeat.
- OneMan - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:47 am:
@Precinct Captain
Not sure if I would consider Schneider’s campaign manager the best authority to offer an opinon on that.
Don’t think a campaign manager has ever said after a win “That was a good attack on us, if I was them I would use it again in 2 years”
Not sure how many consulting and investment professionals had zero revenue. If you are a consulting professional and don’t have any revenue you are just playing in your basement.
That is a bit like me saying I am a professional curler even though I don’t manage to generate any revenue from it. Would let me write off my broom, but it would also be BS.
- Justbabs - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:47 am:
Gill/Davis race. Never thought it would be that close.
- Skeeter - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:51 am:
Dold. I thought his ads were great. I expected him to hold that seat for as long as he wanted it.
Now that the seat has flipped, it will be a massive battle for the GOP to re-take it.
The other one was Skip. I thought personal popularity would carry the day.
- Max Bialystock - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 11:56 am:
A Cook Circuit Court judge fell just short of the required 60 percent on the retention ballot. A few others just barely squeaked over the line. Perhaps this is a glimmer of the possibility of a beginning of the retention system actually working.
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:01 pm:
Schneider’s win.
I had thought that the Democrats blew it in redistricting by giving Schakowsky in the 9th too much of a favorable D district, rather than putting more Ds into the 10th.
- Bluefish - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:01 pm:
Cullerton beating Pankau. It looked like Ramey’s troops in the west part of the district did nothing to help her while Cullerton’s troops were quite active in that heavily GOP portion.
- Anon in BB - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:04 pm:
Biggest surprise of the night for me was how heavily my area went Democratic (Bolingbrook). Even in 2008 I don’t recall seeing such a heavy D margin of victory.
- mark - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:05 pm:
i would have to say the Dem #s in DuPage county…
- Very Anon - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:06 pm:
@Max Bialystock
All Cook County judges were retained. One fell short of 60% in the suburbs — but more than made up the difference in the City.
- amalia - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:12 pm:
@Max Bialystock….if only. hey, Dems, do something about those judges who are wildly out of line.
- k3 - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:14 pm:
Foster’s margin. Schneider actually winning. And Kate Cloonen in RD79 winning-she was down 8 in a poll a couple weeks ago and was outspent 3 to 1.
- shore - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:23 pm:
“Now that the seat has flipped, it will be a massive battle for the GOP to re-take it.”
Kirk won the district by 12 points. Schneider was a very unimpressive candidate buoyed by gerrymandering, obama turnout, dold spending 2009-mid 2012 running as a kennilworth moderate conservative instead of a lake county kirk moderate.
- Wensicia - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:31 pm:
Dold. With the money behind him and his attempt to appear independent of his former Republican friends, I thought he’d win. But, the Obama turnout did him in.
- dave - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:38 pm:
Congressional surprise: Dold losing, Foster winning by such a big margin
State Senate surprise: Melinda Bush getting the win
State Rep surprise: Conroy’s big win, McSweeney’s big win
- Skeeter - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 12:52 pm:
Shore,
1) Dold is not Kirk;
2) The district is not the same;
3) GOP primaries inevitably push a candidate to the right, and a candidate to the right cannot win that district.
Nobody on the losing side wants to deal with reality the day after a loss but that’s the reality.
It is too bad. If I lived in the district, I probably would have supported Dold.
But he needs to go on to the next chapter in his life, and the GOP needs to realize that it is going to be an extremely difficult challenge to take this one back.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:04 pm:
As I noted late last week, none of the federal races surprised me. Granted, I didn’t think the top six GOP targets would go one for six, but after seeing the wave in 2010, it’s no shock the wave collapsed backwards.
I am surprised that Carole Pankau and Joe Neal lost. Garrett Peck’s loss was not as much of a surprise given the overall bent of the district. After DPI spent a small fortune to defeat Skip, his loss is not a surprise, either.
- Knome Sane - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:30 pm:
I am surprised just how eerily accurate Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) was in predicting the Presidential outcome and the other races. This solidifies him as the definitive expert on predicting election outcomes for the foreseeable future.
- Eve - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:30 pm:
Rich Morthland. I sure didn’t see that one coming.
- Snooky - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:33 pm:
Derrick Smith and / or Jessie Jackson Jr. I guess that was when I felt that maintaining the integrity of the electoral process was akin to pushing a boulder up a mountain. And, yes I do realize that these two guys are innocent until proven guilty. But it made it seem that the bar has been “set so low” (in my opinion) that other voters have to look up to look down.
- Bitterman - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:43 pm:
Shilling’s and Nixon’s loss.
- Bluejay89 - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:52 pm:
@Skeeter - I don’t know, I think its conceivable that Dold could win a rematch, despite the new Democratic lean of the district. In 2014, with 2 years of votes to defend, a mid-term turnout that is less favorable to Democrats than general elections, and the history of the district, it is reasonable to believe that Dold could overcome the thin margin he lost by. It may depend on the strength of the GOP gubenatorial candidate and how much that can drive Republican turnout.
- Been There - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 1:59 pm:
JJJ. Not surprised that he won but I took the over on him cracking 70%. He only got 63%.
- CasualObserver - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:04 pm:
I think the biggest surprise was Mike Madigan winning the race for Mayor of Melrose Park.
- Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:07 pm:
Nothing in Illinois other than Pat Brady woke up this morning with his job description intact; the North Dakota Senate race was much more surprising.
Minnesota giving the DFL complete control of the statehouse was quite a change from 2010.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:31 pm:
How selfish voters are. Give them a check and a promise and they’ll sell their children’s and grandchildren’s economic future down the river.
Yesterdays voters did all they could to ensure that their meal ticket gets punched regardless of the societal costs.
It’s a brave new world.
- Anyone Remember? - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:41 pm:
For as Red of states they are, Indiana and Missouri turning their backs on Mourdock and Akin. There are Red states where those comments would not have mattered (Oklahoma, for example). They did in Indiana (where Donnelly is the first Democratic senator not named Bayh since the 1970s) and Missouri.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:46 pm:
VanillaMan,
I kinda disagree with you here. The onus is on Republicans to lay out our plans and teach and lead on our principles. Romney only really pressed on this in the final weeks of the campaign (thanks Sandy for taking away a week of time). I don’t believe voters were ever presented with a time of instruction on what a conservative plan of governance really means, to the voters, their children and their pocketbooks. It’s a Republican problem I can accept. Voters bought the propaganda, granted. Who’s fault is that?
- Skeeter - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:49 pm:
VMan nailed it.
Voting for the guys that spent the last four years creating jobs and killing terrorists? What an amazingly selfish act by those voters. It is almost like voters demand jobs and security.
- Chevy owner/Ford County - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 2:57 pm:
There were several surprising Democratic senate wins but none moreso than North Dakota electing Heidi Heitkamp. She ran a nearly flawless campaign…but North Dakota? Seriously?
- reformer - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:17 pm:
Max B
Which Cook County judge failed to be retained? I check the numbers at both Orr’s office and the City Board of Elections and all were retained as far as I can tell.
- reformer - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:22 pm:
* Rep. Sandy Cole losing by 10 points.
* Every legislator who voted for the temporary income tax was re-elected, including two suburbanites, Nekritz and Kotowski.
* Deb Conroy winning the first all-DuPage Democratic seat by 16 points. Shaw worked his magic again.
* Judge Cynthia Brim, who has been suspended from the bench since she was charged with battery against a deputy, easily won retention, carrying both the ‘burbs and the City by over 60%.
- Mr. Upset - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:23 pm:
To approximately 1/2 of U.S. Citizens, I am sorry you and your state have poised the America I love so much, in a position moving towards socialization of medicine, a weaker defense, a less productive society, that does not comprehend a strong work ethic, the personal reward and greater financial independence. Pray for America!!
- NW Illinois - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:34 pm:
71 - Mike Smiddy over Rich Morthland
- wishbone - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 3:42 pm:
“How selfish voters are.”
Yeah, unlike those patriotic millionaires and billionaires who pay no taxes. Oh, that’s right he lost.
- Maxine on Politics - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 5:21 pm:
Sorry, this is not from Illinois but it is to our benefit. The prop for Missouri cig tax FAILED. My assumption was that it would due to the fact that large numbers of people in IL are buying them there, buying gas, and a bite to eat. Wake up Illinois!
- jake - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 6:00 pm:
I followed Nate Silver because, as a scientist, it seems to me his statistical methods for analyzing poll data are sound and superior to anybody else’s. As it happens, every US Senate candidate he said was likely to win did win, and every state in the nation went for the Presidential candidate that Nate said was more likely to carry the state. Florida remains too close to call, and it was the one state that Nate called a 50-50 tossup. It also appears he predicted the popular vote margin correctly within one percentage point. So nothing on the national level surprised me. On the state level, I was surprised and pleased that the Democrats achieved a supermajority in both chambers of the GA. This should clear the way for getting a graduated income tax Constitutional Amendment on the 2014 ballot, so that hopefully the 5% flat tax can be replaced by a graduated tax when it expires in 2015.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 6:07 pm:
VanillaMan, thanks for making my prediction come true. You nailed it. Pure genius. You sir should be the one to lead your party to its destiny. Your commentary almost leaves me speechless. Almost.
- Holdingontomywallet - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 7:08 pm:
Chris Matthews saying, “I’m so glad we had that storm last week”. Priceless….
- MrJM - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 7:19 pm:
Gay marriage has turned the corner.
– MrJM
- reformer - Wednesday, Nov 7, 12 @ 8:48 pm:
Jake
Every House Dem would have to vote Yes to put a graduated income tax amendment on the ballot. There are downstate conservatives who might be hard to persuade, even though they have few residents who would pay the higher taxes. I wonder if Madigan would put all his targets on that vote?