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Question of the day - Golden Horseshoe Award

Thursday, Dec 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Golden Horseshoe Award for best House Democratic campaign staffer is a tie. The obvious crowd favorite is Shaw Decremer…

Shaw Decremer should win hands down. Who else has been the quintessential poster-boy of the Big Bad Madigan Political Operative, while continuing to win over the hearts and minds of suburban women for several big wins. He also manages to be respected by nearly everyone in the capitol, which is not easy considering the many big He also manages to be respected by nearly everyone in the capitol, which is no easy task, considering the many big personalities involved. I would say he will be missed when he moves on, but people with reputations like his never really leave…

Shaw is leaving staff after many years of winning campaigns. He’s won the award before, but most of you believed that he ought to win again on his way out the door. The guy is amazing.

* Kristen Bauer was runner-up last year, and she probably would’ve won this year all by herself if Decremer wasn’t leaving staff, so that’s why I declared a tie. Check out this incredible nomination…

For the House Dems, Kristen Bauer is simply the best. In 10 years with the HDems, she has NEVER lost a race. Not even Shaw Decremer can say that.

In 2012 specifically, Kristen has proven herself to be invaluable to the HDems.

In the 2012 primary, Speaker Madigan had his first real primary challenger in 40 years - with quite a bit of new territory due to the remap. We all know that the Speaker never takes any chances. Who did he call upon to serve as the lead on his primary campaign? Kristen Bauer. She delivered.

In the 2012 general election, Kristen was sent to Decatur to lead Sue Scherer’s campaign - a campaign that was left licking its wounds after a brutal primary. Bauer was able to repair the relationships that were left strained after the primary and was also able to keep Scherer on the program - not an easy task to say the least. At the end of the day, Kristen led Scherer to a 24 point victory. People claim that this was a district that leaned Democratic, but not 24 points Democratic!

Kristen also took a number of newer staffers under her wing in the last few years. Many of these newer staffers served as leads and won a number of targeted campaigns (Moylan, Willis, etc.). Kristen Bauer is the obvious choice!

Honorable mention goes to Anne Schaeffer for her amazing work on the new map.

* The Golden Horseshoe Award for best House Republican campaign staffer goes to Bob Stefanski …

My nomination on the GOP side goes to Bob Stefanski who ran Susan Sweeney’s campaign. Stefanski dealt with a trio of unprecedented circumstances: a write-in candidate in a tier 1 race, an opponent with unparalleled union support and an incumbent GOP member who supported a dem. Stefanski turned a newbie candidate into one of the most impressive challengers of the fall. She was one of the top GOP fundraisers and most aggressive campaigners. She outperformed every GOP candidate in her area, but in this year, unfortunately that still wasn’t enough.

* Runner-up is perennial favorite and last year’s winner Nick Bellini…

He was thrown into the Saviano race 3 weeks out and expected to fix a tough situation. He did more than any other staffer could’ve done and was 100% invested in Saviano. If he had been put on the race from day one maybe the outcome would have been different.

Honorable mention goes to Nick McNeeley, a crowd favorite.

* OK, let’s move on to today’s categories…

* Best legislative campaign staff director

* The Steve Brown Golden Horseshoe Award for Best Government Spokesperson

It’s all about intensity, folks, so don’t just throw a name out there. Write up something positive and strong for your candidate.

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Sponsors: Gay marriage vote in January

Thursday, Dec 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I should have more for subscribers tomorrow, but if they say they’re running the bill, then they apparently have the votes…

Legal gay marriage may be coming to Illinois as soon as next month.

After counting heads and consulting with legislative leaders, the chief sponsors of a bill to permit same-sex couples to get married in the state this morning disclosed they intend to push for a vote in the General Assembly’s lame-duck session, which will occur over two weeks just after New Year’s.

And, in an indication of how big a campaign the pro side is launching, they’ve hired the firm founded by top presidential adviser David Axelrod to help them with media, organization and outreach to potential supporters, including corporate officials.

As recently as a couple of weeks ago, sponsors had indicted that a January vote was highly unlikely with several other big measures likely to take precedence, including reform of state pension plans and a gambling bill that would authorize a Chicago casino.

But that has changed.

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A “chained” CPI would save some money

Thursday, Dec 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Could a federal idea help fix the state’s pension mess? Maybe…

The chained Consumer Price Index is viewed as a more accurate measure of how people substitute one item for another in the face of a price increase. The result would be lower COLAs over time. COLAs currently are determined using a formula that takes into account increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, but some experts argue that a chained CPI, which takes into account modifications in purchasing habits as prices change, provides a clearer understanding of inflation.

Republicans are floating the chained CPI proposal as part of their fiscal cliff deal; during the past few years, Obama reportedly has expressed support for switching to a chained CPI, at least in private deficit reduction talks. It also was considered by the joint congressional committee on deficit reduction, and endorsed by Simpson-Bowles, Rivlin-Domenici, and other double-barreled deficit duos.

This is how a 2010 memo from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office explains it: “The chained CPI grows more slowly than the traditional CPI does: by an average of 0.3 percentage points per year over the past decade. As a result, using that measure to index benefit programs and tax provisions would reduce federal spending (especially on Social Security and federal pensions) and increase revenues.”

And this is how a February article from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities puts the issue into context: “Many of the federal government’s retirement, disability and income-support programs — including Social Security, federal civilian and military retirement, railroad retirement, [Supplemental Security Income], and veterans’ compensation and pensions — pay annual COLAs that are linked to the CPI.” The line was included under a subheading that read “Using Chained CPI Would Affect a Number of Programs and Save Significant Amounts.”

[Hat tip: Mom]

What do you think?

* Meanwhile, Gov. Pat Quinn has a new pension reform video. This one’s not bad. It features Quinn staffer Sean Vinck, who does some standup comedy in his free time. Rate it…

* Related and a roundup…

* Franklin County Family Files Lawsuit Against H Group: The lawsuit says at one point, the woman was removed from the H Group because her parents felt the agency and its workers weren’t doing enough to protect her. But she returned to the facility after the defendants insisted L.T. was “being a complete gentleman” and that they had nothing to worry about because Doe was being “watched closely.”

* Iroquois County taxes hiked 29 percent: The hike in taxes was driven almost entirely to boost payments on employee retirement programs, according to board member Dale Schultz, of Clifton, the tax committee chairman.

* Illinois’ foreclosure rate in November third-highest in U.S.

* Report: Mental health care at juvenile center lacking: Only eight of 17 mental health positions were filled at the Illinois Youth Center-Kewanee, the state’s designated facility for delinquent young people with the worst mental disturbances, when the John Howard Association visited in September. As a result, Kewanee residents get only half as much treatment as all detainees at another, general-population facility.

* Region’s lawmakers disappointed by court ruling: “By closing these facilities the governor’s making the overcrowding problem more of a problem, a serious problem,” Phelps said. “We’re not going to quit fighting. I want to make sure we do everything we can to make sure those facilities stay open. But if they do have to close… my first and main objective would be to make sure we find positions for all those employees that are going to be affected by the closures.”

* Governor: Let legal process play out on prisons

* Editorial: Quinn shouldn’t appeal ruling on raises

* VIDEO: Chicago Federation of Labor Pres. Jorge Ramirez supporting O’Hare workers

* Kelly Kraft leads first meeting as head of sports authority

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STOP THE SATELLITE TV TAX!

Thursday, Dec 13, 2012 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

The cable industry is asking lawmakers to place a NEW 5% tax on satellite TV service. HB 5440 is not about fairness, equity or parity – it’s a tax increase on the 1.3 million Illinois families and businesses who subscribe to satellite TV. They cannot afford another NEW tax – not now and not in this economy!

HB 5440 Will Hurt Illinois Families and Small Businesses

HB 5440 Is Not About Parity or Fairness

Tell Your Lawmakers to Stop The Satellite TV Tax

Vote NO on HB 5440

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Caption contest!

Thursday, Dec 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From NRA lobbyist Todd Vandermyde’s Facebook page…

We’ll make Todd buy the winner a drink.

Have fun.

162 Comments

The big carry fight will be about Chicago and Cook

Thursday, Dec 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Look, like it or not, if it’s a constitutional right to carry a gun outside one’s home, then that means everybody has to be treated equally under the Constitution…

The head of an influential bloc of black lawmakers says he may be able to support a law that allows Illinoisans to carry concealed weapons in every county except the state’s most populated one.

State Rep. Will Davis, D-Homewood, who chairs the House Legislative Black Caucus, said Cook County is too congested to allow people to carry firearms on the streets and should be exempted from any statewide concealed gun law.

“I think there could be some room for compromise,” Davis said.

As head of the black caucus, Davis could play a key role in crafting a concealed weapons law in the wake of a federal court ruling Tuesday that struck down as unconstitutional the state law that prohibits most citizens from carrying a concealed handgun in public.

There are ways around this, but the NRA will likely do everything it can to block them. For instance, the county sheriff could be given discretion on whether to issue permits. It’s unlikely that Cook County’s sheriff would hand out very many. But the NRA is so far taking a hardline stance against any such ideas…

“We are not going to accept that. Chicago is not going to get their own rules. Your rights don’t change by the zip code you live in,” said Vandermyde. “We’re not going to accept that kind of legislation here in Illinois.”

* Cook County and Chicago are gonna fight tooth and nail to water this down as much as humanly possible…

Mayor Rahm Emanuel blasted Tuesday’s federal appellate court decision as “wrongheaded” as he offered legal help to Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan as she weighs an appeal. […]

For his part, Emanuel noted his efforts while working for former President Bill Clinton to require background checks for gun buyers and ban semi-automatic assault weapons.

“We fought against the National Rifle Association. They had not been beaten in 30 years in the United States Congress, and we beat ‘em,” Emanuel said.

“I think this opinion by the 7th Circuit Court is also wrongheaded,” he added.

* But there’s a real danger with appealing this ruling…

“If the bill is appealed to the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court rules in favor of concealed carry, all of the states that have restricted carry laws go bye bye,” said Vandermyde.

* So if it’s not appealed and if Chicago and Cook can’t come to an agreement or find the votes to beat the gun guys, the NRA can just stall this thing until June, when the appellate court will step in…

The Court has given the legislature 180 days to find a solution.

“If they fail to do that, the Unlawful Use of Weapons’ action is found to be unconstitutional and there’s an injunction against its enforcement across the state,” said Vandermyde. “That means, if you have a FOID card in your pocket, you’ll be able to walk down the street with any firearm that’s legal in the state of Illinois.”

* Gov. Quinn is taking a far more moderate approach following the ruling than Emanuel…

“We have to have reasonable limitations so people who have clear situations where they should not be carrying a gun, for example, those with mental health challenges, those who have records of domestic violence, we cannot have those sorts of people eligible to carry weapons, loaded weapons, on their person in public places” Quinn said.

National Rifle Association lobbyist Todd Vandermyde said the governor is “being very pragmatic in his approach” on concealed carry. Though Vandermyde expected gun rights groups to hold firm on a variety of points, he said his group wanted to “work for a reasonable solution and policy on right to carry.”

Contrast those comments with last year…

“The concept of concealed, loaded hand guns in the possession of private citizens does not enhance public safety, on the contrary it increases danger for everyday people as they go about their lives,” Quinn said, according to the Chicago Tribune.

“I don’t think we’re in the business of trying to increase danger to the people of Illinois. We want to work with our law enforcement and prevent bad things from happening,” Quinn continued. “I think the passage of this law by the General Assembly would be most unwise and they should know where they governor stands [i.e. he’d veto it] and where the people stand.”

Discuss.

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