39 Comments - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 9:46 am: You just reported it again! LOL If you did not mention it, the folks that are quoting you would accuse you of covering it up. You can’t win. - Will Caskey - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 9:50 am: The whole tantrum over Bloomberg is ridiculous. Guns were always unpopular in the district; the only question was how much. It’s not like they were going to be okay with the NRA right up until Bloomberg opened his checkbook. And neither Beale nor Halvorson have a shred of credibility on this subject; they’ve raised pathetic amounts and haven’t run anything close to a conventional campaign as a result. - OneMan - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 9:54 am: And neither Beale nor Halvorson have a shred of credibility on this subject; they’ve raised pathetic amounts and haven’t run anything close to a conventional campaign as a result. Perhaps, but why do I suspect that if an outside entity was spending 2 Million against Kelly she wouldn’t be saying ‘oh, that’s cool’… - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 9:59 am: Has there ever been a voter backlash against out-of-town big money funding negative advertising? Not that I can recall. People complain about negative spots, but if they didn’t move the needle, no one would run them. Still, it was interesting to see Laura Washington columnize yesterday against Bloomberg’s big money influencing the race. Quinn also was quoted over the weekend expressing concerns about the influence of big money (odd, because he’s going to need all that he can get). Halvorson doesn’t have to worry about being a captive of big money. According to the Sun-Times, she’s only raised $30k, and has loaned her campaign another $25k. Yikes. - Will Caskey - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:02 am: Sure, the person on the business end always complains. But so what? The ads might offend Halvorson but they’re neither inaccurate nor misleading. If she has a problem with that she should probably reflect on the wisdom of accruing that sort of record to begin with. - qcexaminer - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:03 am: Maybe this is how these Super PACs will die—not with even more legislation, but via public backlash. Iowa’s GOP governor has already told Karl Rove to butt out of the GOP primary race to replace Tom Harkin in the US Senate, and now Quinn is telling Mayor Moneybags to butt out of the Dem race for IL2. This would seem to be a more effective way to curb these SuperPacs than with more lame legislative attempts to curb political speech, which would likely be struck down as unconstitutional anyway. - She Gone - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:04 am: ===And neither Beale nor Halvorson have a shred of credibility on this subject; they’ve raised pathetic amounts and haven’t run anything close to a conventional campaign as a result.==== Yet according to Kelly’s own poll, Halvorson and Kelly are still neck and neck.. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:13 am: Well, Fox “News.” What else could you expect? - Shore - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:26 am: The debate last night reminded me of animal house-just a complete mess, bloomberg, jesse jackson, guns-the candidates looked completely overwhelmed like they didn’t know what had hit them in this campaign which has really become about things that have nothing to do with them. here’s the link with the post game press conferences. Robin Kelly could use a nap. http://video.wttw.com/video/2336438169 I don’t like her, but I feel for halvorson. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:31 am: ===Well, Fox “News.” What else could you expect?=== It was …um .. Fox local, like ABC local or even NBC local. Comparing Fox local to “Fox News” is a bit lazy and kinda like a drive-by. Just a thought - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:35 am: ===Guns were always unpopular in the district; the only question was how much.=== - Will Caskey -, What doomed Toi more, the idea that the gun issue was so bad in the district, the unexpected barrage of ads against Toi, or the lack of response, be it from the money angle or the issue angle that contributed the most to Toi leaving? If you are telling us that it was well-known that the guns issue was a loser in the 2CD, and you make your point here accordingly, was it that you couldn’t financially make your case, or that Toi had a limited case to make? - walkinfool - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:39 am: It’s always “unfair, outside money”, when it’s attacking you. The backlash against it can be orchestrated and have some minor impact at the poll, especially in a primary. Still, better to have it against your opponent, than against you. O’Willy’s right: Fox local has been remarkably fair and balanced over time, unlike it’s giant kin. - Dee Lay - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:42 am: Special election is hinging on a single issue that is getting a lot of media attention? You Don’t Say. Big outside money is rearing it’s ugly head? You Don’t Say. Politicians are stretching the truth to make it fit their viewpoint? You Don’t Say. - Will Caskey - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:45 am: Oswego Willy, Client NDAs being what they are I can’t get too much into detail but it is not talking out of class to say that guns were always a serious issue and Toi’s gun record was a serious liability; Robin Kelly’s poll releases indicated as much. The question was whether there was a path out of it or not. If you ask my personal/informed opinion I don’t think Bloomberg had much of an effect on it (although Toi dropped shortly before the ads targeting her started). I haven’t seen any super PAC force an issue into relevance where it wasn’t already, and Kelly’s team showed admirable discipline attacking Toi on her biggest weakness. In terms of why she specifically dropped out when she did you’ll have to go through the official channels to ask that, and settle for the official response. - walkinfool - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:46 am: Well Rich, as the “influential” blogmeister, they’re going to drag you in when they can. Fair? NO. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 10:56 am: ===If you ask my personal/informed opinion I don’t think Bloomberg had much of an effect on it…=== So the Bloomberg effect in your personal/informed opinion had much of an effect? I wasn’t asking for the entire “play by play” of the complete rationale, but that “personal/informed” response answered quite a bit. So you really think the Bloomberg effect had littel to do with it …ok(?) ===In terms of why she specifically dropped out when she did you’ll have to go through the official channels to ask that, and settle for the official response.=== And,…. just to be quite clear, I was not looking for “speaking out of school”, or the “official” line … I asked about the gun issue, you responded to that specifically, and that is all I could ask to a specific issue. Appreciate it To that point, it is difficult to believe, however, even with personal/informed opinion, that Bloomberg had very little to do with it. Not starting a war of words, just looking from the outside, and by doing so led to my very specific points, and points of questioning. It begs the next question of outside money and a hot button issue, at what level can those monies dictate a race by pushing an issue that a candidate is known to be weak to be able to respond to, and weak also to be able to respond to, media-wise. Thank You. - bored now - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 11:04 am: OneMan: sure, politicians always complain when someone else is stepping all over their message. the fact is that the kelly campaign had correctly identified the single wedge issue that separated her from the rest of the field. they had been beating the drums on this issue before the bloomberg pac got involved. if robin hadn’t raised the money needed to get her message out, or put together a competent campaign team or been willing to fight back against the attacks on her, it’s doubtful the 2nd CD would have been on bloomberg’s radar. i’m amused at the uproar about all this, simply because bloomberg was the most successful “picker” of congressional candidates in the 2012 election cycle — taking on the monolithic NRA! — and i’d bet most of us never heard of independence pac or the congressional candidates that it already elected (several in key upsets). robin kelly would be the first to tell you that federal campaign finance laws need to be changed, but it’s not like she has anything to do with how mayor bloomberg decides to spend his billions of dollars. isra ed richard pearson had already expressed his pleasure at halvorson’s prospective victory, giving the NRA supporters their voting cue. and i see no one is talking about the “pro-second amendment rights” robocalls going around the district (oh, yeah, they nicely skirt federal campaign disclosure laws, so we can pretend they aren’t being used to influence this election!). so the only question left to ask is, do you prefer the candidate of the 1st amendment advocate (bloomberg) or the candidate of the 2nd amendment advocate (pearson). hopefully, the rest of the voters in the 2nd CD agree with me, and will be sending robin kelly to congress this spring! - ZC - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 11:05 am: We have to distinguish here between changing minds and agenda setting. Bloomberg’s super PAC ads didn’t change anyone’s minds about gun control. What they might have done is raise the salience even higher of gun control as -the- issue for voters to consider, as they fill in their ballots. But given current events, gun control was already pretty salient. I’d be surprised if that much money from Bloomberg didn’t notch it up at least a bit higher, however, especially given the dearth of competing messages on the airwaves, which can only have been good for Robin Kelly. - Will Caskey - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 11:07 am: It’s not a majority opinion, and you don’t have to look far for others on team Toi claiming otherwise. So, take from that what you will, but no I don’t think Bloomberg had a significant impact. I think he made a very savvy targeting decision, especially targeting Halvorson early and as such aligning himself with the CBC and others who wanted the seat to stay African-American, and that he did a good job of LOOKING like he altered the race. But with the available data I think Robin Kelly was going to win this, super PAC or no. I’ve worked for super PACs, and I’ve worked for people attacked by super PACs (or 527s, or whatever). I haven’t ever seen one of them make people start caring about an issue they hadn’t previously cared about. Witness American Crossroads last year basically setting their money on fire trying to get people to care about Solyndra or the national debt. Or the lunatic super PACs attacking Tammy Duckworth and Bill Foster here in Illinois. People either care about an issue or they don’t. And in this case it would be one thing if Kelly hadn’t done any communicating, but she had a robust mail program attacking Toi and promoting herself as the anti-gun candidate (which, considering the field, she is). Maybe Bloomberg changed the potential order of second and third place, but I don’t see him singlehandedly giving Robin the seat and sinking Toi. I’m sure it had a nonzero effect, but given the available polling data and the fact that Toi wasn’t targeted by Bloomberg until the very end I don’t think it altered the trajectory of the race. There was a possibility that guns weren’t so toxic as to become the ONLY issue, but it turned out they were. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 11:13 am: - Will Caskey - Thank you. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 11:28 am: ===…simply because bloomberg was the most successful “picker” of congressional candidates in the 2012 election cycle…=== I think the PAC was 4 out of 7 races. A juggernaut, it was not. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 11:46 am: One thing that seems to be overlooked is that it is not just Bloomberg money, but also that the President came to town to discuss gun control. Bloomberg talking about it is one thing. Ads are great. But when the President, who I assume is pretty popular in that district, comes to town to talk about one issue and one issue only, and you are on the wrong side of that issue, you have problems. - ArchPundit - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 11:49 am: === robin kelly would be the first to tell you that federal campaign finance laws need to be changed, but it’s not like she has anything to do with how mayor bloomberg decides to spend his billions of dollars. Elsewhere, Bored Now knows already, I have pointed out that because Bloomberg is the sole funder, his efforts aren’t really covered by Citizen’s United and a SuperPac, but as an individual funder under Buckley v Valeo. You can spend your own money and as much as you want on campaigns for yourself or others as long as you do it alone and without coordination and you have been able to do that since Buckley–or really since the beginning of the nation. It was only in the early 1970s that we tried to regulate such spending and the Court quickly knocked it down. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 12:22 pm: On Saturday night I had an exchange with Debbie Halvorson on Facebook which resulted in Halvorson de-friending me. Halvorson posted a link about Sen. Toi Hutchinson dropping out of the race. A few minutes later Halvorson posted a link extolling the positives of giving women more access to firearms. I “shared” the link noting that it seemed an odd juxtaposition that the first thing Halvorson posted after Hutchinson dropped was a pro-gun article. Halvorson said it was “coincidence”. I told Halvorson that any politician who left her communications to “coincidence” ten days before an election wasn’t sophisticated enough to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives. And then I added somewhat meanly that Halvorson’s previous constituents concluded that she wasn’t up to serving in Congress. I don’t like how Robin Kelly has hammered the gun issue. I would rather have Kelly say more of what’s she’s going to do in Congress. But it’s undeniably an effective campaign message when her two main opponents were darlings of the NRA. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 1:06 pm: === she’s been going around for weeks talking about her strategy being exactly what happened,” Halvorson says. “That looks extremely suspicious and, so, when you look at the amount of money, we don’t need somebody from New York dictating to us here in the Second Congressional District,” says Ald. Anthony Beale. === Halvorson should have omitted the CapFax reference and instead pointed to factual reasons why those two things line up. If the facts back up Halvorson’s allegation, then so be it. Kelly and Bloomberg’s Super PAC would then have some serious explaining to do to the FEC, etc. If not, then Halvorson is just throwing junk and hoping something sticks. And may need to work on some reading comprehension. - Votecounter - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 2:21 pm: There are 5 Black republicans running in a primary too. Nobody has given them the time of day. Now you can say it is because no Republican can win thats why the media won’t cover them; But maybe they can’t win because they get no coverage. That means that after the Primary all of the media will go away? The race in the General won’t be covered? Isn’t that molding the news instead of reporting the news? isn’t that kind of racist? If it were an all white or majority white district in the suburbs would it be treated this way? - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 2:25 pm: ===If it were an all white or majority white district in the suburbs would it be treated this way?=== Yes, of course. How many stories do you ever see about the Democratic candidates in solidly GOP districts? Token at best. - ZC - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 2:49 pm: Archpundit, that disparity - between Bloomberg as just buying his own ads out of his wallet, and a super PAC doing the same thing out of the contributions of multiple rich guys - is precisely one of the reasons I think the Court ruled the way it did in _Citizens United_. And, they’re right; the old system never did logically make a lot of sense. I would have preferred they had gone consistently in the other direction, however, but that would have entailed a direct overturning of _Buckley_. And of course this majority was never going in that direction anyhow. Still, the old rules pre-CU didn’t all make sense either, always good to note that in passing. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 2:51 pm: ===isn’t that kind of racist?=== I thought this entire race … wasn’t about … race …I get so confused. - wndycty - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 3:13 pm: And why exactly is Beale going after Obama? “A Democrat running for former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.’s (D-Ill.) old seat is furious with the party establishment for lining up behind one of his opponents — and he’s taking his frustration out on President Obama. Anthony Beale, a Chicago alderman, criticizes Obama for not doing enough in his career to tackle gun control, an issue that has become central in the campaign to represent Illinois’s second congressional district. Beale argues he been on the front lines of the fight for gun control while Obama has only signed legislation to make guns more available. Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/283755-democrat-running-for-jackson-jr-seat-attacks-obama-on-gun-control#ixzz2LNjXGpFg Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook “ - Votecounter - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 3:19 pm: How about the 10th district? Didn’t we all get to know dan Seals pretty well? - Votecounter - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 3:25 pm: So your saying you don’t think the race will be covered in the general? What if Halverson were to win and Paul McKinley were to win? that would be a white suburban women against a Black Republican from the streets of Chicago. You still think it’s automatic that the Democrat wins? - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 3:44 pm: ===How about the 10th district? === Swing district. The 2nd is definitely not that. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 3:45 pm: ===What if Halverson were to win and Paul McKinley were to win?=== Well that would be fascinating, and, therefore, newsworthy. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 3:47 pm: Ald. Beale being hyper-critical of the President at this point, in this DIStrict will indeed get him nowhere…and fewer votes. It’s a 2-Horse Race now to the Finish Line and with all of the MILlion$ in Outside help financially (ala Super PACs), and via the growing list of Endorsements Ms. Kelly is receiving, it’s hard to see the Former Congresswoman Ms. Halvorson’s $55,000 holding up… …That is, unless she has been arranging for a Top-Shelf, Grass-Roots’s style “get out the vote” drive in the works “locked and loaded” into (no pun intended) her key Constituency/supportive voting blocks, AND, who knows, perhaps some solid cash flow/”Power Mailing” assistance to Halvorson being quietly planned/soon-to-be executed by the NRA in the waning days of the Campaign, and targeted to her already-identified NRA, conservative and Independent Democrat backers in various pockets of the District, as well as women supporters, who, of course, vote in larger numbers. If so, the race will REALLY be on then…! - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 3:57 pm: ===How about the 10th district? Didn’t we all get to know dan Seals pretty well?=== The voters got to know Seals so well, he lost 3 times …maybe if we knew less of Seals, he would have been congressman Seals, but I digress … Also, Halvorson needs a really good Election Day, and I dunno if her finances are going to be enough in a low turnout race like this. Tons, and I mean tons of pressure on Kelly to have a strong GOTV, while Beale can run his 9th Ward and roll the dice, thus the shots at POTUS. Who is getting less sleep these days, Halvorson or Kelly? - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 4:01 pm: ok (sigh), the above post is me, I am not trying to be anyone, deceive anyone, or BE anyone who may be - anonymous -… Full disclosure, as always. - Boone Logan Square - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 6:10 pm: Bloomberg has to be happy about the state of the race. He’s apparently not the only one. Mary Ann Ahern reports Rahm’s trying to clear the field. “Sources told Ward Room Emanuel has called candidates asking them to consider stepping aside. Sen. Toi Hutchinson withdrew over the weekend, and Patrick Brutus, a city worker, bowed out Tuesday. Insiders also note Emanuel is in a tight spot with Ald. Anthony Beale being a leading candidate. Emanuel does not want to be perceived as turning on one of his alderman, especially with Ald. Carrie Austin, Michelle Harris and John Pope all supporting Beale.” Source: http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Rahm-Emanuel-2nd-District-Race-191862361.html - Quinn T. Sential - Tuesday, Feb 19, 13 @ 7:36 pm: Two questions: (1) In a McKinley vs. Huthchinson would it be more important to the “community” for the winner to be a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, or the Democrat Caucus? (2) Who had the bigger serving of Humble Pie over the weekend; Toi Hutchison, or Toni Preckwinkle? Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.