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Kelly poll has her leading

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Robin Kelly’s campaign has a new poll…

* From the pollster…

The following are key findings from a survey of 400 likely voters in the February 26th special primary election. Interviews were conducted on February 4-5 and respondents were reached on both landlines and cell phones. Results for the survey carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

• Kelly moves into first place. After sitting behind both Halvorson and Hutchinson in an early January survey, Kelly now leads the pack at 26 percent of likely voters.

o Kelly has wide base of support. Kelly’s lead is broad as she expands her support in every corner of the district. She now leads among African American voters across the district and throughout Cook County—both in the city and the suburbs.

o Kelly’s leadership on gun control resonating. Among those voters who volunteer that they have heard Kelly’s message on preventing gun violence and taking on the NRA, she wins a whopping 65 percent of the vote.

* On guns…

• The NRA remains toxic in IL-2. Just 16 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA here, with 60 percent holding a negative impression. No voting bloc—racial, regional, or ideological has a favorable impression of the group. Even self described conservatives have a negative view by a 2:1 margin.

More troubling for Hutchinson and Halvorson is that a solid majority (56 percent) of voters say they would be “not at all likely” to support a candidate who they agreed with on a majority of issues, but who earned an A from the NRA. Another 15 percent said they would only be “a little likely” to support such a candidate.

• Hutchinson’s true record on guns not out yet. This week’s Chicago Tribune story detailing Senator Hutchinson’s responses on her NRA questionnaire that earned her an A rating has not yet penetrated the public’s perception. More than one in five (21 percent) of voters who say they would not support an A-rated candidate are currently voting for Hutchinson—support that is likely to disappear as the campaign continues.

• Halvorson’s standing upside down. Halvorson’s vote share declined from 25 to 22 percent over the last month. While not a precipitous fall, Halvorson’s personal standing has taken a serious hit in recent weeks. In January, 2nd District primary voters viewed Halvorson favorably by a 34 – 18 percent margin. Halvorson’s negative standing has more than doubled in that time (29 percent favorable – 37 percent unfavorable). Her decline among African Americans is particularly steep.

  28 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Keep a close eye on our live session blog for full coverage of Gov. Pat Quinn’s State of the State address today at noon and its aftermath. Let’s look at some previews…

* Sneed

Sneed has learned that Gov. Pat Quinn plans to propose an increase in the state minimum wage in Wednesday’s State of the State address, which would raise it to at least $10 an hour over the next four years.

* Crain’s

Gov. Pat Quinn will announce today in his State of the State speech that the Urbana-Champaign-based school, in partnership with its National Center for Supercomputing Applications and private companies, will be forming an Illinois Manufacturing Lab likely to be located in the central area of Chicago.

The facility will be a somewhat smaller, more applications-based version of the UI Labs tech-research center that was announced in January by U of I President Robert Easter and others. The prime goal will be to make the state’s manufacturers more competitive, something that has become increasingly challenging as overseas firms take control of many of the world’s factories.

* Lee Enterprises

Military veterans who have special skills could get a leg up when it comes to landing a job under an initiative expected to be formally unveiled by Gov. Pat Quinn Wednesday.

The Lee Enterprises Springfield Bureau has learned the governor will issue an executive order requiring state agencies to consider skills learned by veterans when they apply for licenses for various jobs.

The move, for example, could streamline the process for a former U.S. Army medic who wants to be licensed as a nurse by eliminating the need for training in areas where the veteran already has experience.

* The Question: What one word would you use to describe the current State of the State?

  118 Comments      


Biased wording or message testing?

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a new poll conducted for the We Are One Illinois coalition

Illinois state government has budget problems. Governor Quinn and other politicians say these problems are caused by public employee pay and pensions that should be cut. Public employees say they are middle-class workers like teachers, police, and caregivers, and the budget problems are caused mostly because rich people and big corporations don’t pay their fair share. Which do you agree with more?

    The budget problems are caused more by public employee pay and pensions… 34%

    They are caused more by rich people and big corporations not paying their share… 50%

    Not sure… 16%

You may know that the pension funds for retired public employees like teachers, police, caregivers, and nurses are $97 billion short of the amount they owe to current and future retirees. What do you think is more responsible for the pension debt: public employees with overly generous benefits or politicians who skipped pension payments?

    Overly generous public employee benefits are more responsible for the pension debt… 27%

    Politicians skipping pension payments are… 64%

    Not sure… 9%

There are different ideas about how to solve the pension problem. Governor Quinn and many other politicians support cutting pension benefits earned by retired public employees. Do you support or oppose cutting public employee pensions?

    Support…. 31%

    Oppose… 58%

    Not sure… 11%

…The most significant change proposed by Governor Quinn and other politicians would reduce the pension cost of living adjustment, or COLA, that protects retired public employees from inflation, similar to the COLA earned by Social Security recipients. Politicians say the provision is not affordable. Retirees say they need it to keep up with rising costs. Do you think the cost of living adjustment should be cut or preserved?

    It should be cut… 31%

    It should be preserved… 60%

    Don’t know… 9%

* Chris Wetterich thinks these are totally biased question

The question loads up the description of the parties involved with heavily biased terms. The public generally has a positive view of teachers, police and caregivers. Not so much school administrators, state bureaucrats and DMV workers (although I’ve received very good service at the DMV the few times I’ve renewed my Illinois license). Why not just ask about “public employees,” a neutral term?

And “rich” people, “politicians” and “big corporations” aren’t exactly popular these days. It’s as biased (and inaccurate based on recent job creation numbers) as the right calling them “job creators.” So it’s no surprise that people sided with the teachers, caregivers and cops.

* But it’s not as simple as that. First, that’s the language the unions are using in their public arguments against the changes. So, the poll is basically just testing their arguments.

Second, the numbers are pretty close to this October, 2012 Tribune poll

The poll found that 51 percent blamed the state’s politicians alone for Illinois’ pension problems while only 2 percent said it was just the fault of public workers. Another 32 percent said they believed it was a combination of state workers and politicians who created the problem. […]

Voters across the state were even more divided on another plan pushed by Democratic leaders that would alter benefits for current retirees and existing state workers.

Under that plan, workers and retirees could choose to forgo an annual compounded 3 percent cost-of-living increase to their pension in exchange for being able to have access to the state’s health insurance program. Workers and pensioners who choose to keep the cost-of-living increase would have to find their own health insurance. […]

The poll found that 32 percent of the state’s voters favored the plan, while 35 percent opposed it — within the survey’s 3.7 percentage-point margin of error. Another 33 percent of voters didn’t know enough about the proposal to take a side.

* And here’s a June, 2012 poll taken for Crain’s

And asked whether workers should be forced to choose between paying 3 percent more or losing their state-provided retirement health care, Illinois residents are split 42 percent against and 40 percent in favor.

So, the percentage who believe the politicians messed things up is very similar. The percentage in favor of the pension reform COLA plan is similar. The percentage against is higher in the labor poll, but that’s to be expected with such wording.

So, yeah, some biased wording, but it definitely served its purpose.

* Meanwhile, the NFIB released the results of what it calls a “member ballot”…

Illinois members of the National Federation of Independent Business overwhelmingly oppose any legislation that would increase the state’s minimum wage.

That’s according to the results of the 2013 NFIB/Illinois Member Ballot, released today. Unlike other business groups, NFIB doesn’t have a board of directors that dictates its public-policy positions. NFIB’s positions are based solely on input from its members; the Member Ballot is the most important part of that process.

“When we asked our members whether the General Assembly should raise the minimum wage, the answer was ‘absolutely not,’” said Kim Clarke Maisch, state director of NFIB/Illinois, the state’s leading small-business association, with over 11,000 dues-paying members representing a broad cross section of the state’s economy.

According to the 2013 Member Ballot:

    88.4 percent of members oppose a wage increase, compared with 5.5 percent who favor an increase and 6 percent who were undecided or didn’t answer.

    81.7 percent said they oppose tying the minimum wage to the Consumer Price Index to allow for automatic annual increases, compared with 9.5 percent who support the idea and 8.8 percent who were undecided or didn’t answer.

Discuss.

  20 Comments      


“Blood money”

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Voting against a supplemental appropriations bill because it uses money saved from closing a state facility in your region in order to fund DCFS operations is understandable. But, what’s done is done

The Democratic-sponsored measure, endorsed on a mostly party line 63-52 vote, would allow the state to hire workers to check on abused children, boost spending on road and bridge construction projects and finance employee health insurance programs for the remainder of the current fiscal year. […]

State Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, said Quinn’s money-saving move to close the Tamms Correctional Center, for example, has triggered violence elsewhere in the state’s overcrowded prison system.

“I’m telling you, what we’re using is blood money,” Bost said.

* That’s not to say there are no problems in the prisons right now. There most certainly are

We have confirmed that earlier today multiple inmates with possible gang connections assaulted two staff members and the chaplain at Menard Correctional Center in Chester. One of the guards has been taken to the hospital, where he was treated and released.

According to Illinois Department of Corrections Spokeswoman Stacey Solano, the assault took place in the chapel of the facility, with one guard the target of the assault while the chaplain and the other guard injured while coming to his aid.

Early reports indicate 13 members of the Latin Disciples attacked the guards while in the chapel. The facility is reportedly now on a level one lockdown, which is the highest level of security. […]

The 13 inmates allegedly involved in the assaults of the guards have reportedly been transferred to the facility’s segregation unit, the location of an inmate death last week that union officials are calling murder.

This is the second staff assault at Menard in less than a month, and the fourth reported staff assault in that same time period for the entire system.

I hope this doesn’t mean that IDOC is losing control of the prisons. It’s tough to gauge from media coverage, because the Tamms closure has resulted in a whole lot more stories and media interest. I’d like to see some overall numbers here. But that Latino gang attack is mighty worrisome on its own.

* Meanwhile, back to the supplemental approp bill

On Tuesday, Illinois House members approved spending over $2 billion on road building and transferred money from the department of corrections to child welfare and mental health services.

The “supplemental appropriation” was pushed through by majority Democrats and Republicans said the bill was included “millions in unnecessary and irresponsible spending”.

GOP leader Tom Cross argued against the bill.

“When you come before this chamber and say ‘We want to appropriate all this money’, and not focus on a single reform, yes, it’s cause for pause. Yes, we have concerns, and yes, we are not going to support it,” said Cross.

As I explained to subscribers, it’s not really $2 billion. And it’s not new money. From the bill’s Balanced Budget Impact Note

HB 190 (H-AM 4) provides supplemental appropriations for a net increase of approximately $603,266,600 in general revenue fund appropriations, approximately $1,516,909,900 in other State fund appropriations, and approximately $48,757,100 in federal fund appropriations. The bill provides for no new revenue sources, nor does the bill requires any additional State spending. This Bill does not directly have any significant fiscal impact. The supplemental appropriation to the Department of Central Management Services for group insurance was expected to be included in the fiscal year 2013. Therefore the fiscal impact to the General Revenue Fund is negligible. Supplemental appropriations provided from other State and federal funds are provided on the basis of the availability of moneys in those funds.

* There are projects in the bill, but it’s mostly this stuff

The legislation would put $675 million to work on road construction this spring after an unanticipated infusion of federal money and freed-up state funds. It moves $25 million saved from closing prisons to child-welfare services and authorizes a half-year’s payment for state employee health insurance.

The measure includes more than $600 million that will cover the health insurance costs of state workers during the second half of this fiscal year. The General Assembly approved that money last spring but only appropriated enough money for pay the costs for the first six months of the year.
Lawmakers hoped by now there would be new state-employee contracts that would incorporate provisions such as higher health-insurance premiums they agreed to last year, but contract talks still haven’t yielded a new pact.

Facing resistance from Republicans, House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie urged legislators to “do the right thing” and approve the bill that could save as many as 1,900 jobs at the Department of Children and Family Services. The agency has shuffled staff and eliminated middle-management positions; officials will use the $25 million to put 138 more child-abuse investigators on the street.
But GOP legislators cried foul, saying Democrats invariably “demonize” them for opposing such measures.

“I’m tired of the other side telling me I don’t care about anything,” said Rep. Dennis Reboletti, a Republican from Elmhurst. “Don’t tell me I don’t care about people with mental health issues.”
Reboletti challenged Currie to present a “clean bill” without what he said are new expenditures, and he would cooperate.

  45 Comments      


GOP coup attempt fizzles as gay marriage advances

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It takes five signatures among the 19 state central committeemen to call for a special Illinois Republican Party meeting. Jim Oberweis couldn’t even get that

Despite reserving a hotel conference room on his own dime, a Saturday meeting to oust Illinois GOP party chair Pat Brady for statements supporting gay marriage won’t be happening as a suburban state senator has hoped. At least not yet.

And, now that he is spending a bulk of his time down in session in Springfield, dairy magnate Jim Oberweis of Sugar Grove is hoping some others, including Congressman Randy Hultgren’s former chief of staff will step forward to organize a meeting “as soon as possible.”

In an admonishing Feb. 3 email to fellow state central committeemen obtained by the Daily Herald, Oberweis noted that “I was hoping someone would take a leadership role when the need became apparent but no one stepped up to the plate.” Instead, Oberweis himself attempted to organize a meeting, reserving a conference room at an Aurora Hampton Inn at his own expense, for what he described as “less than a couple hundred” dollars.

But, without the required five signatures of committeemen, hopes for a meeting were dashed.

“It’s now too late to call a meeting for Feb. 9. I’m hoping someone else will pick up the gauntlet,” Oberweis said Tuesday.

* Greg Hinz’s take on Oberweis’ failure

It looks like that conservative revolt against Illinois Republican Chairman Pat Brady has fizzled.

Yep.

* The gay marriage proposal passed the Senate Executive Committee again yesterday. But the Right isn’t giving up yet. From Illinois Review

Alliance Defending Freedom’s legal counsel Joe LaRue, who testified in the committee hearing on SB 10, said,

The bill to redefine marriage provides inadequate safeguards for religious liberty. It leaves churches and religious organizations at the whim and mercy of the courts, who will have to interpret the marriage redefinition law and how it interacts with Illinois’ public accommodation and employment non-discrimination laws.

Simply put, this bill does not protect churches and religious organizations from having to rent their facilities to same-sex couples for wedding ceremonies, even when doing so violates the church’s religious beliefs. Nor does the bill protect churches and religious organizations from being forced to hire employees from same-sex marriages. The bill also provides no protection for individuals, like wedding photographers, who object to same-sex marriages but may be asked because of their business to participate in same-sex ceremonies.

This law does not protect religious freedom as it claims. Rather, it promotes religious intolerance, bigotry and discrimination.

* On to the coverage. * Champaign News-Gazette

Danielle Cook of Farmer City, who already has a civil union with her partner, Suzie Hutton, told state senators Tuesday that she wants a full-fledged marriage because “marriage is the standard in our society.”

The Senate Executive Committee, in a 9-5 party-line vote, approved a bill (SB 10) allowing gay marriage in Illinois. It now moves to the full Senate, where passage is considered likely. But it may find a tougher time in the House.

“In numerous settings and in ways big and small, we learned that a civil union is not the same as being married,” Cook said. “It’s not really recognized or understood as marriage is. After getting a civil union, for example, we decided to add Suzie to the health care plan at my work. Everyone and my employer knew that Suzie and I had been together for years. Everyone knew that we were getting a civil union. When I contacted the human-resources department, I was told that we would have to produce the civil-union certificate before Suzie could be added to my plan. That department does not ask anyone for a marriage license, but they asked us for a civil-union certificate.”

Further, she noted that forms at doctor’s offices have boxes for “single,” “married” and “divorced,” but not for civil unions.

“The message was sent in other, more personal ways as well. It even came in how individuals responded to learning that we had gotten a civil union,” she said.

* Tribune

But the Rev. Keith Williams of Cornerstone Christian Fellowship Church of Country Club Hills said he was in “vehement opposition” because same-sex marriage goes against basic tenets of the Bible.

“This bill puts the state very much in the church’s business, and I think we find ourselves deteriorating to a level of immorality that will lead this nation to a high level of judgment,” Williams testified.

Sen. Matt Murphy, R-Palatine, maintained churches will be “dragged into a court” until judges have “delineated every line possible” on religious freedom and public accommodation. Proponents said current laws on human rights and religious freedom would prevent a major flurry of lawsuits from being filed.

* Sun-Times

The same Senate panel approved similar legislation during the lame-duck legislative session in early January. But that plan stalled when backers acknowledged absences of three key votes kept them below the minimum 30-vote threshold needed to pass the Senate.

A central question before the committee then was how institutions receiving public funding would be required to receive same-sex marriage ceremonies. But that language has been dropped from the bill this time, Steans said.

“We didn’t do anything with public funding in this bill,” she said. “There have been concerns about that in the original language. That language is all removed. We’re not touching that.”

Tuesday’s debate focused on whether churches are defined as public accommodations under the state’s Human Rights Act, which says the availability of public accommodations shall not be determined on the basis of sexual orientation.

Though the word “church” does not appear under that section of the law, one definition of a “public accommodation” comes close, describing “an auditorium, convention center, lecture hall or other place of public gathering.”

Some of the bill’s opponents say a lack of clarity in this area could cause trouble in the courts. Joseph La Rue, legal counsel for Alliance Defending Freedom, testified before the committee that the bill doesn’t clearly exempt churches from renting out their facilities such as in other states like New York.

* Daily Herald

Murphy said the law could prompt a wave of lawsuits to figure out which facilities could be used.

Harmon said, though, that there haven’t been similar lawsuits over civil unions in Illinois.

“The civil unions law did not create a race to the courthouse,” Harmon said.

  107 Comments      


*** LIVE *** SESSION AND STATE OF THE STATE COVERAGE

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The governor’s State of the State address is at noon today. Check out the House’s live feed here [fixed link] or the CMS feed here.

You can watch me do the pregame show on your local Public Television station. Our friends at BlueRoomStream.com will have live Internet coverage of the post-speech reactions by the legislative leaders, which you can watch here. You’ll also find archived video at that link if you can’t watch it live.

From the SJ-R

Radio stations WUIS at 91.9 FM and WMAY at 970 AM both plan to carry live coverage of the speech. Public television stations WILL and WSEC also will cover the speech live.

WICS-TV will offer a podcast of the speech at WICS.com.

* OK, now on to our ScribbleLive coverage. Blackberry users click here

  18 Comments      


“Sidewalk only” carry permits?

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Pat Quinn will introduce his concealed carry proposal today, which is combined with lots of gun control stuff. The NRA described the proposal to me yesterday as “Only on the sidewalk” - meaning that concealed carry permit holders wouldn’t be able to carry their loaded weapons just about anywhere except the sidewalk. That appears to be an overstatement, but not by a whole lot.

From the Sun-Times

In a broad-brush manner, Quinn and his administration are expected to offer a framework of what he wants included in court-required concealed-carry legislation, including making applicants undergo fingerprinting and banning concealed guns in malls, schools, polling places, hospitals, bars, libraries, sports stadiums and government buildings, according to one source familiar with the governor’s plan.

Quinn also will renew his push for bans on the sale and possession of military-style, semi-automatic guns and the ammunition that feeds them, according to a source familiar with the governor’s gun platform.

He will call for a ban on gun purchases over the Internet without background checks and a new requirement on gun owners to report lost or stolen weapons within 24 hours, the source told the Chicago Sun-Times.

The governor also is expected to push circuit clerks across the state to more thoroughly report to the state when someone is adjudicated as mentally ill. That information is used by the Illinois State Police in screening gun-permit applicants.

I’m told there is a FOID processing backlog right now of about 75,000 applications. They’re gonna need a bunch of money to cover all this concealed carry stuff.

Also, and I really hate to bring this up, but Quinn opposed fingerprinting applicants for the undocumented resident driver’s license permit program.

Needless to say, the NRA is gonna fight this proposal tooth and nail.

  129 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a Statehouse roundup

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Feb 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

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* Tribune editorial board: 'Nevermind'
* Judge tosses bribery convictions in ComEd Four case, prosecutors indicate a new trial may not be necessary
* Fair hit?
* When RETAIL Succeeds, Illinois Succeeds
* It’s just a bill
* State finally making major progress on funding 'four core services'
* Intoxicating Hemp: No safety? No thanks!
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* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
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