The leaders react
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Via Jak Tichenor’s most excellent public television program, House Speaker Michael Madigan reacts to the governor’s budget address…
Madigan talked extensively about pensions, the new AFSCME contract, gaming and other stuff. It’s a must-listen.
* Republican leaders Tom Cross and Christine Radogno react, part 1…
Part 2…
* Leaders Cross and Radogno also held a press conference. BlueRoomStream.com has the video.
* I may have audio of Senate President Cullerton later in the day. Check the live blog for that link.
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First med-mar hurdle cleared with GOP votes
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Yes, it’s just a committee vote - and the first committee vote in the original chamber at that. But two House Republicans voted for the medical marijuana bill in committee today.
From a press release…
A bill to allow Illinois residents to use medical marijuana in the treatment of their debilitating medical conditions moved one step closer to becoming law Wednesday when it was approved 11-4 by the House Health and Human Services Committee. It will now be considered by the full 118-member House of Representatives.
House Bill 1, sponsored by Deputy Majority Leader Lou Lang (D-Skokie), would allow people suffering from specific medical conditions, such as cancer, multiple sclerosis, and HIV/AIDS, to use medical marijuana if their doctors recommend it. Qualified patients would be able to obtain marijuana from one of up to 60 dispensaries, which would acquire marijuana from up to 22 cultivation centers. The Illinois Department of Agriculture, Department of Health, and Department of Financial & Professional Regulation would regulate the cultivation, acquisition, and distribution of marijuana.
According to the MPP, Republicans voting “Yes” were Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park) and Rep. JoAnn Osmond (R-Antioch). “No” votes, all GOP, were Reps. Demmer, Hatcher, Hammond and Schmitz.
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Today’s history lesson
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Ted McClelland has an interesting little timeline of what our governors of the past 100 years did before getting the state’s top job…
Pat Quinn: Cook County Board of Tax Appeals, state treasurer, lieutenant governor.
Rod Blagojevich: state representative, U.S. representative
George Ryan: Kankakee County Board, state representative, House speaker. lieutenant governor, secretary of state
Jim Edgar: state representative, secretary of state
Jim Thompson: U.S. Attorney, Northern District of Illinois
Daniel Walker: Law clerk to Chief Justice Fred M. Vinson, aide to Gov. Adlai Stevenson
Richard Ogilvie: Cook County Sheriff, Cook County Board President
Samuel Shapiro: Kankakee County state’s attorney, state representative, lieutenant governor
Otto Kerner: U.S. Attorney, Northern District of Illinois, Cook County Circuit Court judge
William Stratton: U.S. representative, state treasurer
Adlai Stevenson: assistant to the Secretary of the Navy, U.S. delegate to the United Nations
Dwight H. Green: U.S. Attorney, Northern District of Illinois
John H. Stelle: state treasurer, lieutenant governor
Henry Horner: probate judge
Louis L. Emmerson: secretary of state
Len Small: state senator, state treasurer
Frank Lowden: U.S. representative
Edward F. Dunne: mayor of Chicago
Thoughts?
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Other states
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m often asked if other states have websites like this one. Well, kinda. There are some good state blogs out there and the Washington Post has compiled a list of the best sites. Go check it out and report back.
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* From an op-ed written by US Sen. Mark Kirk…
I welcome the State Legislature’s move to begin this necessary debate by proposing tough [pension] reforms - now is the time to act before other government programs lay claim to scarce tax dollars. To reinforce the message that local programs need local funding, I will soon reintroduce the No States Bailouts Resolution in the U.S. Senate.
This legislation affirms that States, as sovereign entities, are responsible for their own debts and retain control over their spending and taxation. The resolution, citing the historic example from the 1842 financial crisis, declares that historic precedent opposes a bailout of the states and that the Federal Government should “take no action to redeem, assume, or guarantee State debt.”
* This isn’t the first time Kirk has proposed the idea. From a press release in May of 2011…
In a move aimed at protecting the nation’s federal credit rating, U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) announced today that he and 14 Republican Senators have introduced the No State Bailouts Resolution, S. Res. 188, which bans federal bailouts of financially struggling states like Illinois.
His previous resolution is here.
Discuss.
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What, me worry?
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m sure everything will go smoothly with this plan. Yeah. No foreseeable problems at all…
The maximum-security women’s prison in Dwight will close by month’s end in a complex shift of inmates that involves the conversion of a men’s prison to a penitentiary for women and the transfer of hundreds of overflow inmates to other lockups around the state, according to a timeline obtained by The Associated Press Tuesday.
Gymnasiums outfitted as temporary quarters at six prisons started receiving 600 inmates last week, according to the memo prepared by the Illinois Department of Corrections. A spokeswoman confirmed the itinerary but said it could change for any number of reasons, including weather. […]
Dwight’s closure means emptying the Logan Correctional Center, located in Lincoln, of its male inmates. It will become a women’s prison and combine the populations of Dwight and Lincoln Correctional Center, which is also located in the city of Lincoln, near the Logan lockup. The other women’s prison is in Decatur.
A “swap” of 1,000 men and 1,000 women between Logan and Lincoln is scheduled for March 12, IDOC spokeswoman Stacey Solano confirmed Tuesday night.
* And it’s not just Dwight…
Inmates at six Illinois prisons will be bunking in gyms in the coming weeks as part of the state’s ongoing struggle with overcrowding.
With more than 49,000 inmates packed into space built for about 33,000 prisoners, Illinois Department of Corrections Director S.A. Godinez notified the union representing prison employees on Wednesday of the pending changes.
Prisons in Vandalia, Danville, Centralia, Canton, Vienna and Hillsboro are affected.
* Related…
* Gym housing of inmates creates additional safety concerns
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HGOP refuseniks
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The House voted on some gun control amendments yesterday…
In a series of test votes Tuesday, the Illinois House advanced legislation that would ban semi-automatic “assault” weapons in the state but did not provide enough support to pass the bill as law.
The series of legislative measures would ban popular “assault” rifles like the AR-15 and the AK-47 along with certain types of weapon attachments and large-capacity ammunition magazines.
The measure sparked heated dialogue between Chicago gun-control advocates seeking a solution to an unprecedented murder-rate in their city and Downstate pro-gun members looking to protect what they view as a constitutional right.
“What we have here today is just a full out attempt to ban every gun in this state,” said Rep. Brandon Phelps (D-Harrisburg), who sponsors concealed carry legislation backed by the National Rifle Association. “More than anything, we’re really going after the law-abiding gun-owner and going after the sportsman.
* The full House didn’t actually vote on the amendments. The House Republicans refused to cast any votes…
GOP Rep. Dennis Reboletti of Elmhurst said Madigan’s procedure puts politics before public safety.
“Why do we continue to play these games of going amendment by amendment?” Reboletti said.
Republicans have strongly opposed Madigan’s new floor-debate style. He has also used his “weekly order of business” process to discuss concealed carry and pension proposals, and Republicans also refused to vote on pension amendments Thursday.
Halfway through Tuesday’s debate, someone on the Republican sided shouted, “Stop the circus!”
I can see why the HGOPs refused to vote on Madigan’s top-down, cartoonish pension amendments last week. It was a charade. But, as I told subscribers today, yesterday’s floor amendments, while very controversial, were legitimate proposals from rank-and-file members.
Reboletti asked: “Why do we continue to play these games of going amendment by amendment?” Well, that’s how bills are usually amended, dude. One by one.
Yes, the process is different here because the committee process is cut out, but the committee process is usually rigged anyway. And I’d much rather see an open rule in these special orders of business which allows everybody to offer up whatever they want, but, again, yesterday’s amendments were legit.
Participate or go home.
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True dat
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The SJ-R’s editorial today notes that the importance of Gov. Pat Quinn’s budget address today will pale in comparison to another speech it hopes one day to hear…
That’s because the most important institution when crafting the budget is the legislature. And the most important legislator when it comes to crafting this budget and budgets in the decades to come is House Speaker Michael J. Madigan, D-Chicago.
Madigan’s role is more outsized this year than usual because he is the only member of the “five tops” (Statehouse nomenclature for the governor and the four legislative leaders) who has not made his position on pension restructuring known. […]
Yes, in the bizarre interpersonal relations Madigan maintains with his counterparts, even they don’t really know what he’s thinking or wants to do. […]
Better yet, Madigan could lead. He finally could say what he’s for and use his vaunted political skills to pass it. Everyone knows Madigan’s No. 1 priority — forever and always — is to keep the Democrats in the majority in the Illinois House so he can remain speaker. But what’s the point if you don’t try to solve the state’s biggest problem? Is being in Springfield during the winter and chowing down at Saputo’s really that much fun?
Yes, Gov. Pat Quinn will give a speech today. But the most important speech is the one Madigan has yet to give.
Not always, but usually Madigan tends to lead from behind. He makes sure not to take positions that his caucus won’t agree to. And that can be supremely frustrating with a difficult issue like pension reform. He refuses to tip his hand because he has yet to figure out where his members actually stand. So, we’re stuck with this game for several more months.
* Related…
* More pension proposals create less consensus
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Walsh inks talk radio deal
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Talk radio thrives during the day. Not so much in the evenings, when people are home and are watching TV or surfing the Internet. Just three of the top 16 talk radio programs air in the evening. So, a 7-9 pm time slot ain’t exactly ideal…
If Joe Walsh doesn’t become the next Rush Limbaugh, at least he’ll have fun trying.
Either way, the former congressman and tea party firebrand is about to embark on a new radio career that could lead to national syndication or to another bid for elective office. Even he’s not sure which.
As first tipped here in January, Walsh has agreed to sign on as a Monday-through-Friday talk show host on WIND-AM (560), the Salem Communications conservative news/talk station. If all goes as planned, his show will air from 7 to 9pm, starting March 18. […]
In the latest Arbitron survey, WIND ranks 34th in the market with a 0.6 percent share of listeners and a cumulative weekly audience of 178,400. The station, which recently rebranded itself “AM 560 The Answer,” has only two local shows on its weekday lineup — John Howell and Amy Jacobson in mornings and Cochran in late afternoons. Walsh’s will be the third. To accommodate the addition, WIND is expected to move syndicated host Hugh Hewitt to 9pm, with the rest of the nighttime lineup shifting two hours later.
Suggestions for the name of Walsh’s new show?
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Budget preview
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The BlueRoomStream.com video of the budget briefing for reporters last night by Gov. Pat Quinn’s chief of staff, budget director and chief flak is here. Make sure to keep a close eye on our live session post today for constant updates on this and other topics.
* The SJ-R has some info about how the new AFSCME contract impacts the budget…
While pension pressures continue and some programs face cuts, Quinn is expected to tout an estimated $900 million savings over three years in state employee health care costs, which the administration said will result from the tentative contract recently negotiated with the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. The contract calls for higher insurance payments by active workers and also for retirees to begin paying premiums for their state-subsidized health insurance.
However, the administration will need $140 million this year to pay for back wage increases that must be paid under the contract and $72 million to pay for cost-of-living adjustments and step increases next year.
The state also expects to save about $10 million through a new provision allowing newly hired workers to be paid less than the current starting wage for their jobs.
* Meanwhile, serious conflict is coming with the House. Gov. Quinn’s budget calls for $35.6 billion in General Funds spending. That’s a half a billion dollars more than the House’s official revenue estimates…
Just a day before Gov. Pat Quinn is scheduled to deliver his budget speech, the Illinois House adopted its own estimate of state revenues and warned the governor not to exceed it.
On Tuesday, the House adopted resolutions saying they believe the state will collect just over $35 billion in revenue next year from state taxes and federal aid.
That’s the amount the House will use to craft its own spending plan over the coming weeks. Rep David Harris, R-Arlington Heights, the ranking Republican on the House Revenue Committee, said the House budget will not spend more than that amount.
“If the governor walks into this chamber (Wednesday) and proposes to spend more than $35 billion, then he puts himself at odds immediately with this chamber,” Harris said.
* The Tribune looks at increases…
Quinn budget chief Jerry Stermer said the governor wants to add more state police and prison guards to replace a growing number of retirees and to hold down overtime costs.
Spending on social services also would increase from $4.6 billion in the current budget to $5.3 billion in the new budget. Stermer said the extra money would be aimed at “ending gimmickry” that is now “kicking the cost” into other years.
* Big cuts outlined by the Daily Herald…
Quinn today will propose cutting about $400 million for schools, including a 5 percent cut to universities. He’ll also advocate ongoing reviews of cuts into what the state pays for health care for the poor.
And he’s also eyeing possible cuts to local communities’ share of state income taxes, an idea that has drawn loud protests from suburban mayors in recent years.
Quinn isn’t calling for a specific cut to that program, but aides said it could be an item in a larger menu of similar reductions the governor wants.
Keep in mind that those and all other cuts will have to be deeper if the House sticks to its revenue estimate, which it has in the past.
* The Sun-Times has the pension impact…
The budget proposal the governor will present to state lawmakers Wednesday represents a 3-percent increase in spending over current levels but contains no tax or fee increases or sweeping new programs that might be salted within a typical election-year budget.
Instead, the growth in spending goes toward covering $6 billion in pension obligations, up from $5.1 billion this year. Next year’s pension tab amounts to 19 percent of all state spending compared to just 6 percent of the state’s spending pie six years ago.
In fact, while the Quinn administration forecasts $817 million in new revenues coming into state coffers during the budget year beginning July 1, all of that money and more — $929 million — will go toward paying for added pension costs.
“This budget is a direct result of the inaction on stabilizing pensions,” said Jack Lavin, Quinn’s chief of staff.
* News-Gazette on the bill backlog…
The budget also calls for continued progress on the effort to reduce the state’s backlog of unpaid bills, now estimated at around $9 billion.
By the end of 2013, the backlog will be down to $7.5 billion, the budget outline says, and will be reduced to $6.8 billion by June 30, 2014.
* Lee Enterprises on facility closures…
Unlike a year ago when he announced the closure of dozens of state facilities, Gov. Pat Quinn has no plans to add to the list of shuttered properties when he unveils his fifth budget proposal Wednesday.
Although the Chicago Democrat still plans on moving forward with two closures left over from 2012 budget speech — the Dwight Correctional Center and the Murray Developmental Center in Centralia —aides say there will be no repeat of the controversy he stirred last year with the closure of facilities in Tamms, Murphysboro, Carbondale and elsewhere.
* And despite claims that there would be no tax hikes proposed, Sneed says there is one such item on the agenda…
Sneed has learned Quinn, who will release his state budget Wednesday, plans to roll out a proposal that may give major corporations doing business in the state agita — but could pay the state’s debt more quickly.
◆ Translation: Quinn wants to temporarily suspend a $100 million tax loophole enabling major corporations that produce good outside the state to shield a portion of their income from taxation under the Illinois tax code.
◆ The loophole lop: “The governor feels this is no time for ineffective loopholes, when the state has bills to pay,” said a Sneed source. “The suspension would only be temporary, but it will enable the governor, who inherited billions of dollars in unpaid bills from decades of fiscal mismanagement — compounded by the worst recession — to pay down the debt faster,” the source added.
* Some individual videos of last night’s presentation…
* Quinn admin on tax hike: Brooke Anderson with Gov Pat Quinn’s office answers around a question about how the governor will be able to allow Illinois’ 67% income tax increase expire in 2015, given the current budget constraints on the state.
* Lavin on IL AFSCME Contract 1: IL Gov. Pat Quinn;s Chief of Staff, Jack Lavin, briefs reporters on the details of the new contact with the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees
* Lavin on IL AFSCME Contract 2: Jack Lavin with the Quinn administration answers more questions on the contract for IL AFSCME workers, including details about back pay, step increases, and how the contract will break down in the next IL budgets.
* Quinn admin on IL budget transfers: Jack Lavin, Brooke Anderson, and Jerry Stermertry to explain the Quinn administration’s view on taking money that would be transfered out of the state budget, and spending it on schools or pensions. The biggest transfer from the state budget is money collected by the state for local governments. Stermer would not say how much the Quinn budget expects to take from transfers. At about the 3:30 mark, reporters get frustrated with the lack of clarity from Stermer
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Playing it safe by playing it conservative
Wednesday, Mar 6, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A state Senator sent along a link to a new study with this note (redacted to conceal the legislator’s identity)…
It’s about a study of state legislators from throughout the country and finds that as a group, we tend to think our constituents are more conservative than they really are.
I can relate. Calls and emails to my office ran overwhelmingly against same sex marriage, but an actual poll of the district found plenty of support for SSM, (50-39 in favor in [one] side of my nest and 49-37 in favor on [the other] side.)
* From the Washington Post’s WonkBlog…
Last year, a group of political scientists took a random sample of state legislators and asked them a slew of questions, most of which boiled down to: “What do your constituents think about policy?” Do they support gay marriage? Do they support Obamacare? Do they support action to combat global warming?
Friend-of-the-blog David Broockman and Christopher Skovron, graduate students at Berkeley and Michigan, respectively, have released a working paper based on that research and the findings are rather astonishing.
Broockman and Skovron find that legislators consistently believe their constituents are more conservative than they actually are. This includes Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives. But conservative legislators generally overestimate the conservatism of their constituents by 20 points. “This difference is so large that nearly half of conservative politicians appear to believe that they represent a district that is more conservative on these issues than is the most conservative district in the entire country,” Broockman and Skovron write. This finding held up across a range of issues. Here, for example, are their findings for health care and same-sex marriage:
The graph for same sex marriage…
Back to the WonkBlog…
Is it just that legislators don’t talk to their constituents? Nope. Broockman and Skovron tried and failed to find any relationship between the amount of time legislators spend in their districts, going to community events, and so forth, and the accuracy of their reads on their districts. And this bias afflicts not just their view of their constituents, but their positions generally. […]
The research here is young and, as a general rule, reading too much into a single working paper is foolhardy. It’d be good, for one thing, to perform district-level surveys to confirm these findings. But the data holds against a battery of robustness checks the authors threw at it. The finding on conservative legislators in particular is so large that it’s hard to imagine any subsequent research would completely overturn it. But if the findings hold, they suggest both that epistemic closure on the right is real and affects state-level policymaking, and that there is a systematic bias against liberal policies at the state level.
Politicians, in general, tend to play it safe, so overestimating the conservative intensity in their districts is definitely a way of doing that. This working paper could give us an explanation of that older than dirt tradition.
Go read the rest. Interesting stuff.
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