Variations on a theme
Tuesday, May 7, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From comments today…
I truly think MJM is wanting to push through his [pension reform] plan, which is constitutionally suspect in order to force a lawsuit. This way he passes legislation that in the end, results in the status quo. The payoff is his daughter runs on a platform to fix the mess wrought by the GA and makes good with the unions…or maybe not.
* Greg Hinz at Crain’s…
I conclude that major pension reform, though not guaranteed, is really moving now. And then, we can get to the inevitable legal challenges — and a race for governor by Mr. Madigan’s daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who really would like to be able to run without the race focusing on Daddy’s pension failure.
* Jay Levine at CBS2 back in January…
With the recent failures in the House to come up with comprehensive pension reform, some Springfield observers have suggested Speaker Madigan might be dragging his feet, and setting the stage for his daughter to ride in on a white horse and solve the state’s biggest problems.
* Sun-Times…
For Quinn, Madigan’s push carries important ramifications heading into the 2014 election cycle. The governor’s inability to rally the Legislature behind a pension-reform package after repeated efforts has made him look ineffective in some quarters.
Coming up with a signature accomplishment that could be portrayed as a partial cure to the state’s massive budget problems could boost his re-election hopes, even if the speaker’s daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, opts to take on Quinn in a primary.
* And from some guy named John Giokaris…
“Why now?” Why would Madigan expend all this political capital and risk the ire of a core constituency of the Democratic Party? It’s hard to believe that a 40+ year political veteran would suddenly wake up one morning and possess the noble principles and leadership skills that the Tribune now gives him credit for.
Then it dawned on me: his daughter – Attorney General Lisa Madigan – is gearing up for a gubernatorial run in 2014.
Bingo.
If this bill becomes law today, Madigan clears the path for his daughter’s gubernatorial campaign just long enough to get through the 2014 election but before it gets in front of the state Supreme Court.
Boom, he just saved Lisa countless hours of public pension reform ideas on the campaign trail and grilling questions during the debates. She can consider this potential law as “problem solved,” and if she’s pressed on the legality of it, she can simply dismiss all responsibility with, “That’s up for the Illinois Supreme Court to decide.”
* Eden Martin…
Some cynics speculate that the speaker might be motivated to get this fixed because of Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s gubernatorial aspirations. Maybe. But I think he’d like to get it fixed on the merits, no matter who becomes governor.
* And a blogger called The Mighty Quinn…
Will the public employee unions take out their anger, especially if this thing is passed, on Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who is just about certain to challenge Governor Pat Quinn (no relation) in the 2014 Democratic primary for governor? If they do, where do they go? To Pat Quinn, who has been working for something like this plan for at least the last year? Could this be an opening for Bill Daley, who also is pondering a run for governor? Unless Mr. Daley is completely mercenary, one suspects not; Mr. Daley’s theme, his entire reason for running, is that he is the one who can bring fiscal sanity back to Illinois. Backing the public employee unions in this case will not help that image. Could the public employees go with the Republicans? Though with the sorry batch of GOPers we have in this state, anything is possible, one can’t see even ultimate insider, collaborator, and go along, get along guy Kirk Dillard siding with the unions here, let alone someone like Bill Brady or someone even more conservative.
It looks like the unions have nowhere to go to vent their anger against the Speaker here…and Mr. Madigan knows it.
* Lesson: People will see what they want to see. Especially on this topic. It’s really getting ridiculous.
Discuss.
- Griz - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:15 pm:
Senate passes its own version which is Constitutional, throws it back to the House. Madigan and House tweak but alas it is still not enough. Madigan now applies the cost shift to local districts more savings for State and adds employee contributions. This will force school consolidation downstate and save even more money.
Quinn is left out cold leaving the door open for Lisa. The guy is genius!
- Anon - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:18 pm:
And if he didn’t push it now they’d say he was delaying it to help her run against an ineffectual Quinn or so he doesn’t tick off the union base he wants to support her.
Short version, no matter what he does someone will say it’s to help his daughter.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:20 pm:
It’s been quite a long-running conspiracy — 15 years at least.
- CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:20 pm:
Apparently the bloogers and blogettes have not noticed, but the unions have been pretty P—Y for the last several cycles. THey did not like Tier II. Hard to imagine a lot more effort
Conversely, the unions don’t have a lot of options. Elect NotTax Bill Brady or CousinBrucey and they can expect Scott Walker style policies that make any of the changes on the table look like a bean bag toss.
- Roadiepig - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:28 pm:
Beings that this Illininois and Mike Madigan is in ok Ed, is anyone surprised that people would come up with conspiracy theories involvinghis daughter’s possible run for governor and the timing of his (likely) unconstitutional pension bill?
- Chris - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:29 pm:
“Short version, no matter what he does someone will say it’s to help his daughter.”
Whatever one thinks of MikeMad and his approach to the pension issue, one must recognize the truth of this.
- Roadiepig - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:30 pm:
Illinois and involved- should have proofread before posting from my phone
- Anon. - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:39 pm:
This is such a relief. All this time, I thought he was after me, personally.
- AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:41 pm:
The problem with this opinion is if Madigan’s bill were to pass & be signed into law, it would be immediately challenged in court. Since there are clear constitutional issues, it is likely to be stayed by the courts during the challenge. When this happens the defecit keeps geetting bigger. Until a solution is found that satisfies the Illinois constitution, the pension issue will dog all of the candidates from both parties. Madigan’s proposal weakens Lisa’s standing with labor. It is unlikely that this will not be an issue in the next governor’s race.
“Then it dawned on me: his daughter – Attorney General Lisa Madigan – is gearing up for a gubernatorial run in 2014.
Bingo.
If this bill becomes law today, Madigan clears the path for his daughter’s gubernatorial campaign just long enough to get through the 2014 election but before it gets in front of the state Supreme Court.
Boom, he just saved Lisa countless hours of public pension reform ideas on the campaign trail and grilling questions during the debates. She can consider this potential law as “problem solved,” and if she’s pressed on the legality of it, she can simply dismiss all responsibility with, “That’s up for the Illinois Supreme Court to decide.”
- downstate lib - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:49 pm:
That seems a little too clever by half to me. I mean, if MJM “solves” the pension problem in such a way that it just explodes again in LM’s first term, that’s probably a “Don’t do me any favors, Dad” situation.
- Norseman - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:53 pm:
If you’re an ordinary person, it’s called idle speculation. If you have a media gig, it’s called punditry. Only a few people are really privy to what is in Madigan’s mind. The important thing is the action, not the reason. IMHO, the action is bad.
- train111 - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:58 pm:
How come the ‘pundits’ 90% of the time label the government as being too inept to screw in a lightbulb, but the 10% of the time that they’re writing about their pet conspiracy theory, the government has PHD level intelligence and the timing of a Swiss watch?
- phocion - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 12:58 pm:
This isn’t the first time he refers to the Speaker as “Daddy” when writing about Lisa Madigan’s father.
Why is Greg Hinz such a misogynist? Oh wait, never mind…
- Frenchie Mendoza - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:02 pm:
Me, I think this is it. This passes, Madigan retires.
This is the big wave he rides out on.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:05 pm:
–How come the ‘pundits’ 90% of the time label the government as being too inept to screw in a lightbulb, but the 10% of the time that they’re writing about their pet conspiracy theory, the government has PHD level intelligence and the timing of a Swiss watch? –
That is a fascinating phenomenon. The cognitive dissonance must be excruciating.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:10 pm:
===. This passes, Madigan retires.===
This issue has truly become a touchstone for everyone’s pet theory.
- ProblemChild21 - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:10 pm:
train111 - because 90% of the government tends to ineptness, but 10% of them are evil geniuses?
- not a lawyer - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:10 pm:
Wouldn’t Lisa also have to defend the pension lawsuit in court? Either way, I don’t think this gives her cover for the campaign.
- Abe the Babe - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:12 pm:
I think more plausible than the “MJM is trying to benefit Lisa” theory is the one where Mike Madigan has finally realized that he will not be speaker forever and should focus on what his legacy will be.
I dont believe he wants to leave the speakership with this huge problem left on the table that will strangle future legislators/governors. Without a fix, the history books will lay the blame on the one constant in Illinois government since the last constitutional convention.
If it helps his daughter in the meantime, so be it.
- Dirt diver - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:15 pm:
The state is not in a fiscal crisis. The state cannot manage the budget because it doesn’t have the courage to cut spending or raise significant and appropriate revenues to fund its spending appetite. A court will toss out SB1 as amended or another cuts on pension benefits. Until the state has tapped every source, any cut to pensions will be overruled by the courts, unless the Judicial branch is on the take which is possible.
- Mouthy - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:17 pm:
Unions are in the tank on this one. Come up with a plan that benefits legislator types and not the rank and file. They should be ashamed.
- Cassiopeia - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:21 pm:
The best cover is for Madigan to see the light and agree to Cullerton”s senate version.
1. Unions are then not unhappy with speaker or AG
2. It will take care of a good part of the state’s fiscal problem for her initial years as Governor
3. Only republicans feel they were strung out
4. Quinn is odd man out and has no choice but to sign it
5. Retirees are not unhappy with AG
6. Madigan dampens possible conflict in his caucus
7. Cullerton wears the shirt for the “reform”
8. Insiders will think Madigan engineered the whole thing to force the unions to cooperate
Win. Win. Win.
- east central - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 1:22 pm:
Is it too farfetched to assume that MJM is trying to do what is best for the Democratic Party on both counts?
No pension legislation would result in heaps of blame on the Party in the next election. Something has to be passed now.
If PQ polls as unelectable after the session dust settles, the Party needs LM available as a strong candidate to take his place.
- Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 2:04 pm:
Am I too into one of these conspiracy theories to believe that MJM does at least think of the implications on his daughter’s campaign when he acts publicly on a big issue?
This doesn’t mean she needs his help (she has accomplished, and will accomplish, enough on her own). And it doesn’t mean MJM in the end took his stance on pension reform, or anything else, because of her expected candidacy.
- John A Logan - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 2:56 pm:
It all goes back to the grassy Knoll….or was it the free masons? I can never remember….
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 3:07 pm:
Madigan passes pension reform which then frees up enough money to launch an Illinois mission to Mars. Pat Quinn has already agreed to be the first passenger on that ship when it launches, but only if he steps down before the primary. So with PQ in space and the office of LG having been eliminated, Lisa becomes Governor by default, thus allowing her to become the first woman governor to preside over a state bankruptcy.
No? Makes about as much sense as most of the other conspiracy theories.
- unbiased observer - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 3:12 pm:
just wanted to check in and say hello to all my friends here on this forum. I’m watching all of this with great interest.
my prediction: Madigan will win and the supreme court will support.
- Quinn T. Sential - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 3:32 pm:
{People will see what they want to see. Especially on this topic. It’s really getting ridiculous}
I nominate this to be the “official Capitol Fax Slogan” for all future posts with open comment sections.
- Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 4:08 pm:
Geez, it IS getting crazier out there, with this scatter-shot, hodge-podge of viewpoints, than I realized! I would say that the Sun-Times probably has the closest overall Perspective, with a good mix between Greg Hinz’s and Jay Levine’s insights as well. And, yet, I can’t at ALL say I altogether dispute Mr. Geocaris’ opinion either, as I DO believe that there is NO way MJM would do ANYthing other than to plot to INcrease his daughter’s chances to try and grab the top spot in Illinois Government with whatever strategy it is, precisely (?), that he is employing at present.
However, I do NOT concur with Eden Martin’s view, nor with Commenter Mighty Quinn’s remark about Daley benefitting in any significant way, other than marginally, and sorry to say to hopeful GOPers, but I just can’t see the Unions turning to and throwing the full weight of their support behind the “R” Nominee for Governor–ain’t happening. They’ll probably either splinter, or actually lean toward Quinn, since after 15 months of tough negotiations, he, at least ,worked out at least a modest $alary Increase for them in their Contract…
- T Cross - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 4:16 pm:
its a double breaker for sure
- Paul Lyin - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 4:24 pm:
Hey Eden Martin,
No one cares what you think anymore. Go enjoy your $300K per year retirement income (which is more than 10x the amount of the average annual IL state worker annual retirement income). Apparently feeding on the blood and tears of children of low-income families isn’t enough to satisfy your urges.
- Steve D - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 5:13 pm:
wow, hard to believe there have been only two noteworthy comments so far: east central’s = “on target” ||| Chicago Cynic’s = “on acid”
- wordslinger - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 7:45 pm:
–This isn’t the first time he refers to the Speaker as “Daddy” when writing about Lisa Madigan’s father. –
Yeah, that “Daddy” stuff is nasty. Even worse is Kass, who refers to her as “Princess Lisa.”
I’m surprised that the editors at Crain’s and the Trib let that stuff go.
- foster brooks - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 8:00 pm:
Don’t forget biased observer lol
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 8:07 pm:
This whole idea of MJM, his “daughter”, and pensions is a bit Tin-foil hat worthy, only because of what Rich Miller pointed out so well.
===People will see what they want to see.===
The Madigan Rules run counter to what Rich says, but here is what people are missing attaching his “daughter” to all this talk about MJM doing this specifically for Lisa and her possible run for governor.
If it’s found to be unconstitutional, the next governor is going to be faced with even a larger problem, given the fact that one option to “solve” the pension problem is not possible constitutionally.
You think MJM wants to saddle Lisa with FEWER options as a new governor that has to “solve” the pension mess? The idea that Lisa can run on “well, we will see how the courts rule” is not the best way to attack a possible campaign issue, and further, Lisa being asddled with litigation that could very well dictate he first term, if elected, is not something any candidate thinks is a “favor” from anyone, including their Father.
There are far too many moving parts for MJM. The Speaker likes “tidy”, “simple” and “complete”. Madigan likes to know the outcome AND control the outcome, be it for his House Caucus, His Majority, or his daughter. This pension fiasco has none of those elements that lead to “tidy”, “simple”, and “complete”.
This is just people wanting to see/read/guess what MJM is doing and his motives. It’s part of the Springfield Game.
But ask yourself this as you say it all about Lisa; With the Bill’s complete future uncertain, be it by passing, or by the Court’s ruling, would MJM put so much uncertainty in a politcal decision, especially when it comes to Lisa? And then ask yourself, Is Mike Madigan … a gambler?
===People will see what they want to see===
Yes. Pensions and Lisa is another one of those.
- Quinn T. Sential - Tuesday, May 7, 13 @ 9:04 pm:
Speaking of biased; how does my comment hit the cutting room floor, while Steve D’s gratuitous “acidic remar” remains standing, and serves to validate mine as a proof of concept?