* The campaign sniping has already begun. Cue Pete Giangreco of the Bill Daley show…
Mr. Giangreco shoots back that while Ms. Madigan may lead in some polls, she could have “a very difficult time” defeating the GOP nominee if her father stays on as speaker. “Mike Madigan’s not going anywhere,” he said, and voters justifiably will be leery at having “the same family” possess two of the top state power positions.
He’s probably right that the Speaker ain’t going anywhere. “Feet first” is what I’ve always been told.
* But two can play that game…
As for Daley’s announcement that he formed a committee to explore his own gubernatorial run, [Lisa Madigan’s] aide called it “an interesting move given that polls have shown Mr. Daley does not fare well either in a two- or three-way race.”
Those polls are here.
* Speaking of Daley, I posted this Bruce Rauner statement earlier today…
I respect Bill Daley and welcome him to the governor’s race. Unfortunately, one more candidate from the entrenched Illinois political power structure doesn’t hold much promise for fixing our serious problems. The same old political dynasties have literally had decades to address our economic decline, our pension disaster, and our failing schools.
Yeah, he really hates those dynasties…
* Kent Redfield e-mails about a story I posted earlier today…
Hi Rich,
Re caps on contributions, also note that when the caps come off for the general election for Governor (and they will come off, either for self-funding or independent expenditures over $250,000) they are off for the entire general election cycle which last until January 1. So anyone who wants to establish a warm, personal relationship with the Governor-elect (particularly those who backed the wrong horse) will be able to make unlimited contributions to his or her campaign fund between election day in November and January 1. Always worked well when Blago was Gov. so it must be a tradition worth keeping.
Take care, Kent
* Back to Daley…
Mr. Daley appears to have assembled the kind of team behind him that would help him stay in the race until the end, one with lots of ties to Mr. Obama.
Included, according to information I just received, are campaign chairman Sam S. Scott III, an African-American businessman who once headed Corn Products International and is active on immigration matters at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs; finance consultant Roz Skozen, former Midwest finance director for Obama for America; media meister Larry Grisolano of AKPD Message and Media; and pollster John Anzalone of Anzalone Liszt Research, which worked for Mr. Obama and on the president’s health care program, and claims to have taken more congressional seats from Republicans in recent years than any other firm.
* Meanwhile, according to the media, if Speaker Madigan passes pension reform, he did it to help his daughter. If he doesn’t pass it, it’s to help his daughter. Predictable…
However, [Attorney General Lisa Madigan] did dismiss suggestions that her father was not fully engaged in finding a way to overhaul the state’s public employee pension system as a way to make Quinn look bad and boost her possible candidacy. She called such speculation “absurd,” noting the House has passed a pension reform bill.
“It’s June of 2013,” Madigan said. “The next governor won’t be sworn in until January 2015. If we haven’t cleaned up and reformed the pension system by then, we have much greater problems. It is to nobody’s benefit whatsoever for the pension crisis to continue in the state of Illinois.”
The attorney general has not backed a specific plan to reform the retirement systems, but said her office is prepared to defend whatever measure lawmakers send to Quinn once the inevitable court challenge arises.
* The Speaker was asked the same question yesterday…
The Speaker dismissed claims that he is trying kill pension reform this year to benefit his daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, and her still-possible campaign for Governor.
“If I didn’t want pension reform, then I would not have worked to pass the House pension bill as I did,” said Madigan.
C’mon.
If he kills it, he looks bad and harms the Madigan brand because of goofy questions like these. Also, he’d basically kill any chance that the tax hike could be allowed to expire, which hurts his daughter in both the election and if she actually wins. If he passes it, the attorney general has to defend the law in court throughout the entire campaign, which puts her at constant odds with the unions. Either way, this issue does not “help” Lisa Madigan.
Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar.
* Related…
* Rahm says Bill Daley is ‘a friend,’ but it’s too early to jump on board the Daley bandwagon: “It’s way premature between now and the primary for me to even be talking about what I’m gonna do, what I’m not gonna do. They have to decide what they’re gonna do. They have to explain themselves to the public–how they’re gonna fix some of the challenges….I’m not gonna take my eye off the ball….The voters [will] listen to what the candidates have to say and they’ll be making their decision.”
- OneMan - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 2:56 pm:
So does this start to force Lisa’s hand?
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 2:57 pm:
Bill Daley wins here, no matter what happens.
If Madigan runs?
- Daley may win outright or
- Daley helps split the Cook County vote and white male vote with Quinn. Plus, Daley can do some of the “dirty work” attacking Quinn while Madigan remains above the fray and doesn’t go negative.
Even if Daley loses, the Madigans partially owe their primary victory to him.
If Madigan doesn’t run? Daley gets a direct shot to take on one of the most unpopular guvs in America 1-on-1. Likely with the tacit support of the Illinois Democratic Party Chairman and Speaker of the House.
Daley wins, even if he loses.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 2:59 pm:
===Bill Daley wins here, no matter what happens===
LOL
- Downstate - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:04 pm:
Rauner and Rutherford announce on the same day, and yet little is heard about Dan. Given all the attention given to Rauner, it would appear he has the Democrats more than a little scared.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:06 pm:
In re: pensions helping or hurting Speaker Madigan’s daughter:
It may help facilitate the June 19th special session if the Attorney General were to weigh in on the constitutionality of the two proposals, just as she did when on the legislation concerning Senator Burris and a special election, among other examples.
How long until someone askes our chief legal officer her professional opinion on the pending bills?
It would be appropriate, fitting and in line with the precedent she has set.
If that’s not appropriate, ask her which bill she favors as a potential candidate.
If that’s not appropriate, ask her as an active political figure and direct relation of the author of one of the bills.
Or, she could just issue a press release on her own as she did in the Burris case and save the media some time and trouble.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:07 pm:
LOL. OK, maybe I jumped the gun a little bit on that one Rich.
He certainly seems to have a few paths to personal benefit, however. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.
- Empty Chair - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:20 pm:
Anzalone and AKPD. Man, those guys did a bang up job on Quinn’s campaign in 2010. Such a good job that they quit because they thought he couldn’t win. Oh, and then he did.
Real rock solid team he’s got there.
- Walter - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:22 pm:
Kent Redfield is a state treasure. His analysis and insight into campaign funding and politics are superb. Keep it up Kent.
- grand old partisan - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:30 pm:
Is Bill Daley’s campaign really going to start make an issue over a single family having too much political power? Really?
REALLY???
- Mayor - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:35 pm:
Review- Lisa tells Barack and Rahm at WH she won’t run for Senate (Kirk wins). Rahm gives interview says he would leave WH to be Mayor of Chicago. Rich Daley announces he is not running. Bill Daley takes Rahm’s job at WH. Rahm becomes Mayor.
Hey, remember when Lisa turned down Barack and Rahm about ruinning for U.S. Senate? Perhaps the deal for Rahm’s and Barack’s support for Bill’s governor bid was made around that same time.
- Will Caskey - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:43 pm:
Bit early for the summer doldrums isn’t it?
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:46 pm:
$200,000 bucks to Richie, but his campaign has the audacity to attack the brother? Huh? Is that the Audacity of Mopes? Geez.
And on Lisa, I agree with you that the media will continue to spin anything done by the Speaker as being done for her benefit. But I think you’re missing the bigger point.
It’s the relentless asking by media and opponents and the inevitable tying together of Father/Daughter in the narrative that presents the real problem. It’s a Catch 22, she’s either portrayed as a feckless stooge controlled by Dad or as someone without enough clout to move Dad to her point of view (such as on, say, equal marriage). Either way, the narrative is the same and the narrative is problematic which is why I really hope the everyone is wrong about the Speaker’s plans to stay. Last week should have made clear - her running and his staying is untenable and will be a problem sooner than even I expected.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:51 pm:
=== Perhaps the deal for Rahm’s and Barack’s support for Bill’s governor bid was made around that same time.===
LOL
Some of y’all really need to stop overthinking things.
- hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:52 pm:
@Downstate - Rutherford has not got any attention good or bad since his announcement because he hasn’t done anything for Dems (or supporters of other gop candidates) to opine upon since his announcement.
Bruce is serving up a new fix for us political junkies daily. Thus he gets attention not out of fear but out of entertainment.
Btw anyone get 2005-06 flashbacks from that giangreco sniping at madigan? *shudders*
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 3:54 pm:
===Rutherford has not got any attention good or bad since his announcement because he hasn’t done anything===
Exactly. But some folks will only ever see just what they want to see and nothing more. It soothes them. Whatever.
- HenryVK - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 4:11 pm:
“Rauner and Rutherford announce on the same day, and yet little is heard about Dan. Given all the attention given to Rauner, it would appear he has the Democrats more than a little scared.”
No, it just means that Rauner is strange and therefore interesting while Dan has been around for a while and is, as a result, boring.
I don’t of anybody “scared” of Rauner. Of course, I also don’t see how he has any way to win.
Typically, GOP voters don’t like candidates that write huge checks to Rich Daley. Who knows though. This election may be different.
- Keyrock - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 4:21 pm:
I’d love to see the general election ads for the not-going-to-happen Rauner-Daley race:
“Bruce Rauner gave $200,000 to Rich Daley. He’s not a real Republican. And he knows the Daleys are the best for governing Illinois.
Hi, I’m Bill Daley, and I want to be your governor. I approve this message. Just know that I had nothing to do with the parking deal. Or Hired Truck. Or anything else my brother did.”
- Downstate - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 4:23 pm:
Henry VK -
The election may be different here downstate, in that the problems of Springfield are hitting communities full in face. Our papers are filled with the tough budget cuts that local school districts are having to make.
I see Republican primary voters (traditionally social conservatives) focused much more on economic and state spending issues than ever before.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 4:23 pm:
I don’t think that’s it Henry. Rauner is talked about because he’s the guy with $$,$$$,$$$.$$ so people want to see if he’s for real, and want to figure out what to make of him.
Is he Ron Gidwitz, Blair Hull, Andy McKenna? Or is he something we haven’t seen in this state - a viable rich guy candidate. The rest of the field is soooooo weak (Rutherford can’t match $$ and the other thing, Brady retread puppy killer who couldn’t even beat Quinn, Dillard - no money and selling his soul for the nomination), people want to know if this guy has a chance.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 4:48 pm:
Downstate, do you actually believe Rauner would support sending more money to downstate school districts?
- Bill White - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 4:49 pm:
PS — I know this is true:
“Our papers are filled with the tough budget cuts that local school districts are having to make.”
Perhaps raising taxes on millionaires and billionaires would help your local schools not face those tough budget cut decisions.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 5:26 pm:
Can’t do it Bill - see Illinois constitution.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 5:37 pm:
Financial services tax?
Anyway, the underlying political question is whether a hedge fund guy from Winnetka will be able to connect with downstate voters better than Dan Rutherford.
Right now Rutherford may be going unnoticed on the intra-webs, however he has put in thousands of personal appearances at countless locations south of I-80 and west of Route 47.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 5:46 pm:
=== Perhaps raising taxes on millionaires and billionaires would help your local schools ===
Not too many millionaires and billionaires in ounties like Jackson (33.7% poverty) or Alexander (31.3% poverty).
Unless we’re talking about both raising taxes on the wealthy and also changing the school funding formula.
Those are 2 difficult fights, and both would have to be won separately.
Plus, you’d have to make sure politicians didn’t dip into those increased revenues to fund other things.
Don’t forget, increased revenue from a state lottery was supposed to address this issue when it was first approved many, many years ago. And we’re still in the same boat.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 6:09 pm:
=== Not too many millionaires and billionaires in ounties like Jackson (33.7% poverty) or Alexander (31.3% poverty). Unless we’re talking about both raising taxes on the wealthy and also changing the school funding formula. ===
Indeed. Very difficult.
But returning to Downstate’s comment at 4:23pm, is there anything in Bruce Rauner’s messaging that could appeal to the voters living in Jackson or Alexander counties?
- Amalia - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 6:20 pm:
time to hunker down, take no calls or emails, and grab the popcorn and read the papers.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 6:46 pm:
I’m still surprised by the Bill Daley move. Maybe he figures now or never, and what does he have to lose at his age?
It’s not like he hasn’t backed down before.
I think the Rauner/Emanuel/Bill Daley big-money relationship will become a hammer for an enterprising GOP primary candidate before it’s all over.
My guess is that it will be Rutherford. He’s not holding out for contributions from the Crowns and the Koldykes of the state. He can pound Rauner and his pay-to-play contributions to Dems all day long.
I’m sure Dillard wants those contributions, but the train has left. They’re going with Rauner.
Where is Dillard going to raise money, anyway? He still owes Gidwitz a ton from the last time out.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 7:35 pm:
I just don’t see Rauner beating Rutherford.
Rutherford touting his fondness for staying at the Red Roof Inn will be superb jujitsu against Rauner’s wealth, especially with struggling downstate Republicans facing insolvent schools.
That said, Rauner’s presence does pretty much close the door on Kirk Dillard or anyone else who might be interested in the GOP nomination.
===
Question: As a practical matter, when should we expect Rauner and Rutherford to make their Lt Gov selections?
Presumably petitions need to be circulated with BOTH names typed at the top (Gov & Lt Gov) or am I wrong about that?
- Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 7:49 pm:
Not passing something reasonable WILL certainly make him–and any Madigan connected publicly to the pension reform goal, LISA publicly included–look not only “bad” but incompetent and self-serving, most definitely diminishing his daughter’s already uphill battle against the sitting Governor, one of the best and underrated Campaigners and Closers around…!
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 7:50 pm:
@Bill White - those are excellent questions regarding Rauner’s message and for example, Alexander County.
At the moment, I would tend to think “no”.
And the Red Roof Inn stories make for a perfect contrast.
- steve schnorf - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 9:01 pm:
how Alexander County goes ain’t gonna matter much in the primary or the general, I predict
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 11, 13 @ 10:12 pm:
Schnorf, as you know, as Alexander goes, so goes Pulaski and Massac.
How did we get a Pulaski and Massac down there, anyway? Very ethnic for the Ohio River valley.
- Bill White - Wednesday, Jun 12, 13 @ 7:10 am:
After looking at the Election Code, it seems to me that the Gov candidates need a confirmed Lt Gov choice before they can start collecting signatures. That means everyone has about 90 days remaining to woo and sign up their LG running mate.