44 Comments - Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:21 am: I wonder in this poll if the Speaker was just a proxy for the General Assembly/Springfield as a whole. I highly doubt 71 percent of Illinoisans actually know who the Speaker is. They just don’t like Illinois government. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:24 am: I’d like to see the cross tabs on this question, specifically how the Speaker’s numbers look in the 22nd Legislative District. - Tom - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:28 am: why isn’t Daley leaking his poll results? I assume because he can’t win. His strategy must be he has to remain negative in order to move from third place. - biased observer - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:29 am: ultimately….only things which really matter are how the voters in Madigan’s own district perceive him and how his fellow democratic legislators feel about him. - TJ - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:30 am: 3/4 of the electorate may hate Madigan and the Democratic leadership of the General Assembly, but how many of those folks also hate their own representative? It’s like the old adage of Washington…. 90% of the people may disapprove of Congress, but their guy is almost always the exception, so nothing ever changes. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:35 am: Once Chuck Goudie has chased you down the street, it’s all over. Not a big sample, but I don’t doubt the results. I don’t think there are too many popular politicians or institutions in the country right now. The economic collapse was severe, and the crawl back has been slow and dreary. - Empty Chair - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:37 am: There’s an important point to be made about messaging with these poll numbers. Many insiders have said that tying Lisa to her father won’t hurt her that badly in an election, and point to the failure of IL GOP’s “Fire Madigan” campaign as evidence. This is a poor comparison for two reasons: 1) The IL GOP ran a crappy campaign with “Fire Madigan,” despite having a fairly good message. There wasn’t enough money behind their push, and they didn’t target well. Furthermore, the message was tailored to statehouse reporters and the donor class, rather than key demographics of races. Voters at the end of the day never made the connection that a vote for a Dem State Rep was a vote for Madigan. 2) There was no opportunity for the campaign to succeed in 2012. This argument can be made by pointing to Skip Saviano’s unsuccessful defense against Kathleen Willis, more so than the “Fire Madigan” campaign. Saviano drew a straight line from Willis to Madigan, and even drew some free media from creative ads. But, at the end of the day, it was a down-ballot race in a Presidential year. And that’s why a message like “Fire Madigan” never had the chance to succeed. The elections weren’t about Madigan, they were about Obama and turning out Democratic votes. Republicans still struggle with the ground game, and very few of their State Rep candidates were funded well enough to have a strong organizing operation. It was the combination of Obama being at the top of the ticket and strong field programs that led to Madigan’s success, and the “Fire Madigan” campaign’s failure. The 2014 election, on the other hand, may be ripe for testing how damaging a connection to Mike Madigan may be. First, there will be no noise to drown out the Gov primary. It is the top of the ticket, and the strong challenges to an incumbent are already seeing lots of coverage. Second, rather than trying to connect several down-ballot candidates to the controversial Speaker, there will just be one candidate to stick to him. And finally, the relationship couldn’t be any more clear - father-daughter, mentor-protégé, and more damming claims that I won’t detail. I’m one that thinks that this is the rationale that will keep Lisa out of the race. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:37 am: Good point, Tom….I am always suspicious when a candidate releases numbers but don’t include their own. It’s not like he spent all that money for a poll and didn’t test himself. Perhaps the Suntimes could ask for the rest of the numbers. - Darienite - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:41 am: 1. Who is planning to challenge Madigan in the Democratic primary? 2. Can a Republican have a realistic chance of beating him the general election? 3. Once re-elected, what fellow Democrat would challenge him for the Speaker’s seat? If your answers are “No one”, “No”, and “No one”, should he care? - truthteller - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:42 am: Maybe Madigan is out of step with Illinois which is, after all, a blue state. He won’t close corporate tax loopholes or push hard for gay marriage. He insists on budget cuts that cripple important education and health programs. He attacks teachers and other public sector unionists, and leads the charge on cutting pensions. Exactly what makes him a Democrat? - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:46 am: “(600 2014 potential general election voters)” What the heck is a potential voter? - Kay - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:49 am: Downstate is ripe for the right candidate. Even Bill Daley. With all of the candidates in the primary competing for the Chicago votes… The pension proposed bills, along with healthcare will result in 10-20% cut in purchasing power of thousand of retired workers living downstate. If these families….and small business who will be affected, organize… it would powerful. The Madigan and Quinn name would be political poison. My suggestion for Daley… The Poshard proposal; COLA would be based on the rate of inflation. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:49 am: Interesting that his negative job performance rating (51%) is worse than his unfavorable rating (46%). - Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:50 am: No offencse, but will the next poll tell us water is wet and chicago is windy? - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:50 am: ===The Madigan and Quinn name would be political poison.=== She’s stomping them both Downstate in the latest poll. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:52 am: obviously the result of no groovey website or cellphone! Woe is him BTW did anyone notice that Billboards did an interview this a.m. with a radio station doing a live remote from golf course? Of course not, but the funny part was he ran out to his car to do the interview so all you Cross golf haters wouldn’t bug him - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:52 am: ===What the heck is a potential voter? === Rookie reporter, I think. - Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:52 am: Empty Chair, Other than your last point about her not running, I agree completely. Just not sure about the last point. - dupage dan - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:53 am: 47th Ward is asking the right question, at least in the short term. Poll numbers re MJM are meaningless regarding any re-election plans. His district is all that counts. He has historically enjoyed deep and strong support in his district. Could MJM be hurt enough by the pension debate, and other issues, that his speakership could be threatened? I don’t see a shift in the house that results in a GOP majority so that means those currently under MJM’s thumb would have to rise up and overthrow the big cheese. I don’t see that happening any time soon. MJM may decide to resign his speaker post or leave the house altogether - I don’t see that either. These polls, then, are of little value other than as talking points for talking heads. - Steve - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:56 am: Of course much of this is meaningless. Illinois voters don’t vote for Speaker. Mike Madigan has enough of his district to get elected, that’s all that counts. Bill Daley should remember the sage words of advice from his father Richard J. Daley “Those who don’t vote don’t count.” Because the general public can’t vote for Mike Madigan : they don’t count. For a scholarly look at how Mike Madigan operates check on this link to a Harvard University Press book. http://www.amazon.com/Money-Nothing-Politicians-Extraction-Political/dp/0674583302/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1371660941&sr=8-1&keywords=money+for+nothing+fred+mcchesney - Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 12:01 pm: Giangreco just poked MJM in the eye with a stick with this leak. He is not serving his client’s long-term interests. - eastsider - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 12:07 pm: In spite of the execution limitations defined by Empty Chair…it appears “Fire Madigan” did leave a mark. Nice work Frmr Chair Brady - horse w/ no name - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 12:25 pm: Daley’s camp is clearly doing everything they can to convince Lisa Madigan to take a pass. I doubt it will affect her decision. I imagine those same polls they ran about MJM also show that even with the baggage associated with the name, Lisa is far ahead in every head-to-head and every key demo. The conflict of interest and too much power in one family’s hand narrative has the potential to be damaging. But time and again she has shown she has her own political skills and time and again attempts to tie her to her father’s hip have either failed or totally backfired. - Distant Viewer - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 12:45 pm: I think this partially validates some of my recent comments. Madigan is perceived as an obstacle to progress. He did nothing to promote the marriage bill, failed on pension reform, and generally seems like someone who prefers gridlock to leadership. Sure, he’ll keep winning his district. But, why would Democrats want to keep him as their leader if he keeps turning out negative numbers? - ILPundit - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 1:01 pm: I think its remarkable that we appear to be on the verge of a major Democratic Intra-Party fight over the Madigan’s place in both the party and the state government. 10 years ago, something like this was unthinkable. - Mason born - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 1:04 pm: Let’s not forget that the people in Madigans district benefit greatly by his power as speaker and king maker. Why would you throw out your rep if he can single handedly channel whatever you want into your district?? IF your rep can control the whole house he isn’t one vote but the Majority add to that his sway over Senate D’s. I suspect his district is as happy as pie with MJM. The only way he loses Speakership is if the R’s sweep house, he resigns, or passes. My bet is on the latter. - horse w/ no name - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 1:32 pm: -why would Democrats want to keep him as their leader if he keeps turning out negative numbers?- you’re looking at the wrong numbers. To answer your question look at his organizations record in elections and his campaign cash. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 1:33 pm: - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:52 am: ===What the heck is a potential voter? === Rookie reporter, I think. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ HA! Needs a quick lesson at the Rich Miller School for Polling Data Reading. Another service offered by CapFax? - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 1:45 pm: I’m with word. POTUS’ numbers just dropped ten points. (Of course he has a couple clinkers in the coalbin to clean up) Or look at Congress-they have been about as popular as pre-impeach Blago for years. The release tells me more about Daley than Madigan, and it’s disappointing. - siriusly - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 2:10 pm: So what if Lisa doesn’t run. Does this sort of poll help get the speaker’s help for Daley’s campaign? For Daley’s administration? What if we had a Governor who bashed the speaker all the time - how would that end up . . . I somewhat agree with Wordslinger even if he/she was being satirical, I actually think the ABC7 Goudie thing was very damaging imagery. - Skeptic - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 3:22 pm: I also wonder how much of this is aimed a Mr. Madigan and how much is frustration over his strangle-hold on the process. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 3:33 pm: -why would Democrats want to keep him as their leader if he keeps turning out negative numbers?- Because he keeps electing big Democratic majorities, piling up big money for campaigns and passing their parochial bills. Like he has for 30 years. I don’t know what to make of Bill Daley. Right now, I think if Lisa announces for governor he folds like a Woolworth’s tent. Bill Daley’s clout has always been derivative; first from his father, then his brother. His Roloxdex is worth gold for making money, but it doesn’t mean he can mix it up in the daily (not Daley) street fight of elective politics. He’s like Rahm, a money and backroom guy. Rahm got lucky in that there was a vacuum when Rich left (Chico and Carol; give me a break). He filled it with favorable press and a ton of money. Burke didn’t have the cash to make Chico competitive and Carol was unbelievably bad (the former Senator and ambassador did not win one precinct in the city). Bill’s not going to get a pass from Lisa, and I don’t think he can go mano-a-mano with Quinn. Where does he beat Quinn in the city? Where is the base for Bill Daley voters, anywhere? Just make the calls and cash the checks, Bill. You’re not a politician. - Fred's Mustache - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 4:09 pm: === Bill Daley’s clout has always been derivative; first from his father, then his brother. His Roloxdex is worth gold for making money, but it doesn’t mean he can mix it up in the daily (not Daley) street fight of elective politics. === Word, you have summed up the Daley candidacy in a nutshell. Where would his army come from? Where is his ground game? Outside of some support in the 11th Ward from those reminicing of the good old days, who would vote for this guy? - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 4:27 pm: –Outside of some support in the 11th Ward from those reminicing of the good old days, who would vote for this guy?– I doubt if there’s much in the once Mighty 11th either (certainly nothing that could compete with the 23rd). Chinatown has been expanding into Bridgeport for years, and even after the housing collapse some pretty sweet residential has been going up there. Bill Daley’s the new Pump Room, not Schaller’s Pump. - Earl Shumaker - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 4:28 pm: Has there been any discussion on this list about the possibility of an Illinois Constitutional amendment limiting the terms for the Speaker? The House, of course could change its rules to put term limits on the Speaker’s job. Apparently though the votes are not there - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 4:35 pm: Wow–I knew people don’t like Madigan in Illinois, but I didn’t think his Negatives were THAT high! If it wasn’t for his Il. Rep. District in Chicago–where THEY obviously know how much clout he has so that they re-elect him time and again, and, hence, how the residents there ADDITionally understand how TOtally OVERrepresented they are by him AS their Rep., as such–the little fella would’ve been Toast YEARS ago, and Illinois would’ve been SO much better off…! Yet, it is what it is. Let’s only hope that SOMEhow he doesn’t mess this PENsion mess up any more than it is now and can work out something amenable to a Majority–howEVer it gets done (i.e. and what are the Odds on it being done, IF it gets done, harmOniously this time in the Legislature instead of via his usual strong-arm tactics)…?! - kimocat - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 6:04 pm: Madigan has been in the Legislature so long that he has had time to do a personal favor for everyone in his district — and probably has. Because of his out-size power, he is able to get special, preferential treatment for projects in his district and help for his friends. He also knows how to deal with people who cross him. I can’t see him losing his position unless he steps out in front of a CTA bus. - John - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 6:52 pm: I would be interested in seeing what Madigan’s favorability is for primary voters. That is the one that matters, and I bet it is not much better. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 7:37 pm: Having talked personally to thousands of voters in the past five years, I found a small minority of voters who actually know top-of-mind, who Madigan is or what he does. That likely is changing, but I doubt it is yet a significant factor. With aided recall, after a set up describing him, they can react negatively to a question, mostly driven by their feelings about the performance of Illinois state government overall. There has clearly been some rising awareness among teachers and their friends and families, due to his pension efforts. But how much in the overall scheme of things? Might this change with massive advertising, and consistent messaging? Of course. Might that even impact other races — maybe. IMHO this focused attack on a person not in the race, would again be a waste of money, chosen by political insiders with little understanding of average voters. A more general message of change needed in Springfield would sell better. - Jack - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 8:18 pm: I would have thought the union haters would be going ga-ga over Madigan and his SB1, pushing his popularity into the stratosphere. But perhaps they are only a tiny minority after all. Albeit, a very vocal minority. - AG for Life - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 8:39 pm: The little lady is going to run for reelection and like it, - votecounter - Wednesday, Jun 19, 13 @ 11:37 pm: There will be another candidate on the GOP side who has not announced or even speculated for Governor and they will win. - low level - Thursday, Jun 20, 13 @ 5:52 am: Agreed about Giangreco. What is he thinking? Axelrod the same thing. Go ahead and talk all you want, gentlemen, but I think the man’s record of winning majorities even when the map was unfavorable is the proof of his effectiveness. And, of course, everyone seems to forget 1996 and the hard work he, staff, and candidates did to bring the party back from having absolutely nothing. - cod - Thursday, Jun 20, 13 @ 10:15 am: Madigan has been in power for so long that he has inevitably aggravated too many people. I think his impressive career is nearing the end, but it is too bad his legacy will be remembered for reneging on pension contracts for retired teachers. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.