* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

There’s more than enough blame to go around regarding the failure of the gay marriage bill during the final days of the General Assembly’s spring session, which ended May 31st.

Gov. Pat Quinn knew that African-American House members were reluctant to support the bill, mainly because of pressure from their churches. So, why did he pick a nasty fight with the Black Caucus over Medicaid? Quinn was offering projects to Republican legislators to entice them to flip, but Quinn couldn’t find a few million Medicaid dollars to help poor people get wheelchairs and preventative dental care? That late session fight over Medicaid spending was counterproductive. Instead of using the disagreement to his advantage, Quinn dug in his heels and so did the Black Caucus, which also initially refused to support a gay rights measure several years ago after being cut out of a gaming expansion bill.

Senate President John Cullerton said he didn’t regret passing the gay marriage bill out of his chamber in mid-February, before the House votes were lined up. Back then, the House roll call was reportedly in the 40s (60 votes needed to pass). Usually, proponents try to wire these things so they pass both chambers quickly. Cullerton said he feared opponents would begin gearing up and believed the bill needed to be passed as quickly as possible. But passing that bill without first making sure the House was ready to deal with it energized opponents and gave them time to organize.

Proponents say the House roll call moved into the 50s by March. But instead of working it hard at that point, House Speaker Michael Madigan appeared to put off a vote. Madigan did the same with several other bills this spring, including the fracking proposal. The idea was to wait on stuff that looked like it could pass easily and get the truly hard stuff done first, like the budget, pension reform and concealed carry. Those bills absolutely had to be passed, so giving out goodies to his various factions early in the game would, the theory went, reduce the willingness of proponent legislators to work on the tough stuff. But, the opposition geared up and by the time Madigan revisited the issue in late May, the roll call was already sliding backwards. By May 29th, when a majority of the Black Caucus decided it wanted to wait until November to vote on the bill, the roll call reportedly fell to just 52 “Yes” votes. It couldn’t be salvaged. Madigan’s strategy failed.

The proponents themselves need to reexamine their entire, failed strategy. They pushed for an early Senate vote, then didn’t adequately respond to the growing opposition from black churches. The response playbook was written almost a quarter century ago. During the 1990 gubernatorial race, Republican Jim Edgar targeted black church leaders, believing he could hold down the black Democratic vote that way. It worked. Big companies like ComEd and Illinois Bell saw how effective Edgar was and began using black churches to make their legislative cases. Their Statehouse influence took off like a rocket.

ComEd and Illinois Bell also began hiring black lobbyists at about the same time. There weren’t many back then, so hiring those folks gave them a huge advantage with African-American legislators. The gay marriage proponents had just one black lobbyist on their payroll, and he’s affiliated with the Senate. They didn’t bother to hire any House-affiliated black lobbyists until the afternoon of May 30th, when it was way too late. An inexcusable blunder.

Some proponents have slammed the bill’s House sponsor for not calling a floor vote. But that’s simply ludicrous. Big bills like this tend to fail badly if they don’t zoom up to 60 on the tally board. The final total would’ve almost surely been in the low 40s, meaning it would’ve died in its tracks. It also could’ve exposed a few “hidden” votes. Either that, or those secret proponents would’ve had to vote against the bill, making it that much harder to turn them around the next time.

As mentioned above, the House Black Caucus wants to wait until November for a vote, but November is near the end of House candidate filing season. A November vote means many already nervous legislators might guarantee themselves primary opposition. So, if it doesn’t pass this summer in a special session, it’ll probably have to wait until after the 2014 primary.

* Meanwhile, Think Progress has a piece that puts the issue into a bit of perspective…

Like Illinois, legislative efforts to pass marriage equality stumbled in Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York — either failing to obtain a majority or by through postponed consideration. Future attempts to enact legislation later succeeded in three of those states, while the New Jersey legislature’s passage of a bill was met with a Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) veto. As Illinois supporters work to win passage of the bill later this year, ThinkProgress reached out to key players in each of those states and asked them about their experiences.

Three common themes emerged in their responses. Several said Illinois supporters need to make sure they have an accurate target list and focus on the lawmakers who need persuading. Constituents, they suggested, must respectfully tell their personal stories to their legislators and make their representatives understand why this issue matters to their families. Finally, the openly LGBT caucus within the legislature must appeal personally and emotionally to their colleagues, especially those who may not be as attuned to the topic.

Maryland

Perhaps the most analogous case was Maryland’s unsuccessful 2011 attempt to pass a civil marriage bill through the state House of Delegates. Though advocates believed they had the needed votes to pass the bill, they were forced to postpone the vote after some pledged supporters wavered. Unlike Illinois, supporters went through with the debate — hoping their compelling personal stories might sway the handful of votes needed for a majority — before sending the bill back to committee after it became apparent the votes would not be there. Advocates, including Gov. Martin O’Malley (D), the state’s seven openly LGBT Delegates, and LGBT groups, organized a new campaign and successfully pushed the bill through less than a year later. When opponents forced the question onto the November ballot, a majority voted for marriage equality.

Openly lesbian Maryland Del. Heather Mizeur (D) noted that about 10 supporters were willing to be a part of a 71-vote majority but would have voted against the bill if it appeared likely to lose. “It would not have been okay to lose by 12 votes and try to come back the next year to win those back. We wanted to hold onto their willingness to be yes on a winning vote, instead of locking them into a no vote because they saw it was going down,” she recalled. [Emphasis added.]

Notice the emphasized text. Gov. Quinn’s oft-stated demand that a vote should be held regardless was just plain silly.

* Related…

* Lisa Madigan predicts gay marriage “one day” will be legal in Illinois: “As you know it passed out of the Senate, but they never had enough votes to call it for a vote in the House. I’ve spent a lot of time lobbying a lot of members of the Legislature on that bill in addition to writing an op-ed and speaking out in favor of gay marriage as well as intervening in the two court challenges that are happening both at the federal level and here at the state level,” she said following commencement ceremonies at Knox College Saturday.

* Traditional marriage rally brings out hundreds in Chicago

* Chicago activist voices frustration with pastors’ efforts against gay marriage