Question of the day
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mark Brown went through a whole slew of potential gubernatorial candidates this week…
It’s definitely late to be launching a campaign, but it’s not too late for the right candidate — someone who would start with good name recognition, have the resources to make up for it or best of all, have a built-in constituency that would give them a plausible path to victory.
Former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010, is one possibility.
Hoffman just announced last week that he would not be a candidate for attorney general, attributing his decision to wanting to spend more time with his young children.
It would be difficult to backtrack on that reasoning so soon, but Madigan’s decision to seek re-election has changed the political landscape enough that all contenders are going to be reconsidering their options.
I left a phone message Tuesday asking Hoffman if he was interested in running. He deflected with a tongue-in-cheek email asking if I wanted to be his campaign manager. I responded by warning that I was going to put his name in the mix unless he shut me down. Never heard back after that.
I’m not sure that a losing Democratic primary has provided him with lots of built-in name ID, but whatever. On and on he went, listing one person after another who won’t be running for governor any time soon. Also, note that this question is not about whether you want it to happen, it’s about whether it actually could happen.
* The Question: Do you think it’s too late for a credible Democratic gubernatorial candidate to run? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please, including who you think it would be if you answer “No.”
survey service
- John Boch - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:28 pm:
Against Daley and Quinn? It would be exceedingly difficult to say the least.
- Cassiopeia - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:31 pm:
There is widespread and deep dissatisfaction with Quinn that the situation just screams opportunity.
The one who would really shake up the race would be Kwame Raoul.
- Mason born - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:38 pm:
It seems to me that Quinn and Daley both have some significant negatives to deal with. Someone “clean” such as Raoul would seem to have an opening if he/she started soon.
- ElectionLawyerAbe - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:39 pm:
Not that it will happen, but imagine if Rep. Luis Gutierrez jumped in. He’s got some built in votes, name recognition, donors, etc.
He would have a fair shot at it.
- Labor diva - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:39 pm:
If only Toni Preckwinkle would consider it.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:42 pm:
Yes, it’s too late. There would be no money to be had. Quinn’s raising a boatload and so is Daley. And Lisa hoovered up a ton, too.
David Hoffman, name recognition? Oh yeah — loved him in “Rain Man.”
“Uh oh, two minutes to Zagel.”
Woof. He ran one of the worst campaigns in memory.
- Been There - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:51 pm:
This is kind of an open ended question. Could Rahm get in and be a factor? Yes but of course that’s not going to happen. Somebody with deep pockets like JB Pritzker? Again he would be a factor but not happening. Dick Durbin? Personally would love to see it but no. I think it would be possible but not probable that there is going to be a credible candidate coming out of the woods.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:01 pm:
As I recall, Bobby Kennedy was late into the 1968 presidential primaries, but gained a lot of traction pretty quickly. I do not know of a similar type person in the Illinois gubernatorial race. But he or she is out there, it probably is not too late.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:02 pm:
But IF he or she is out there…
- Snucka - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:04 pm:
Raoul is the only person I can think of who could be a serious threat.
Luis Guttierez couldn’t even get his candidate elected president of Cicero. He is a non-factor in Illinois politics outside of his own safe congressional seat.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:08 pm:
===Bobby Kennedy was late into the 1968 presidential primaries, but gained a lot of traction pretty quickly===
Yeah, but he was way behind heading into the convention. Doubtful he would’ve won the nomination.
I’ve watched some fascinating archive videos online of the news coverage on the night he was shot. Before the assassination, the network TV guys were explaining how Kennedy wasn’t close enough to win. I’d always thought he was the likely winner until I watched the contemporary coverage.
- lonely in colorado - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:20 pm:
If i win my appeal i’m in!
- ZC - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:23 pm:
I thought the idea of Raoul running was fascinating in theory but unlikely as heck to happen; he strikes me sort of like Lisa, in public service for the right reasons but fundamentally somewhat risk-averse and not really possessing the “fire in the belly” for what would be an uphill race.
However, then I heard Senate President John Cullerton’s interview on WBEZ’s “Morning Shift” today, link here is at http://www.wbez.org/programs/morning-shift-tony-sarabia/2013-07-18/morning-shift-black-black-crime-108098 . If you fast -forward to about 10 min into the “strange political bedfellows” section, Cullerton is prompted (important point to note, he didn’t volunteer this) to talk about Kwame Raoul.
Cullerton appears to my ears to be saying, “Of course I’m not encouraging him to run, but if he did … wow, wouldn’t he be such a great candidate…”
I’m curious, other people’s reactions here.
- Been There - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:24 pm:
I think it was for the governors race four years ago that Mike McDermott was almost drafted to run by the CapFax bloggers. If he were to accept this groundswell of support I know there would still be time for a credible campaign.
- Frank - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:35 pm:
I voted no, mostly because Quinn and Daley are both deeply flawed candidates. It’s not too late yet as long as the candidate has one of two thing: 1) the ability to self-fund or raise cash quickly; or 2) a natural base of voters.
Can’t think of anyone who fits in the number 1 category. But a credible African American candidate, like Kwame or Preckwinke, could throw their name on the ballot and get 25 percent of the vote just for showing up. That’s something they can build on in a short time without a lot of $. Sheila Simon could be a factor despite a lack of funds because of the natural base she would have as the only woman and downstater.
Hoffman must have leaked a lot of great stories during his time as Chicago IG cuz there are always plenty of reporters (like Brown) floating his name for office. He lost a Dem primary to Alexi, one of the most flawed candidates of recent vintage! He’s got no chance, but he does have great hair.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:35 pm:
–I’ve watched some fascinating archive videos online of the news coverage on the night he was shot. Before the assassination, the network TV guys were explaining how Kennedy wasn’t close enough to win. I’d always thought he was the likely winner until I watched the contemporary coverage.–
All true. Strange times. LBJ would have pulled out the stops to block RFK. There was genuine mutual hatred between the two.
Release of LBJ phone tapes have shown he was still holding out for a convention stalemate so he could come riding into Chicago to save the day and run again.
And Arthur Schleisinger in his published diaries has Richard J. learning hard on Ted Kennedy to challenge Humphrey on the convention floor, with Ted Kennedy giving it serious consideration.
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:36 pm:
Kwame Raoul could get it done. It’s not too late, but he’d have to hurry up. He would absolutely torpedo Quinn.
- Montrose - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:40 pm:
Kwame Raoul could make an interesting run at Gov., but might have better success at winning as Daley’s Lt. Gov. running mate.
- Hedley Lamarr - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:50 pm:
I voted yes.
Since Lisa is not running, there is still time for Mike to throw his hat in the ring!
- Chavez-respecting Obamist - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:52 pm:
Tom Dart,anyone?
- Mason born - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:58 pm:
This to me is Raoul’s strength. I followed the CCW debate closely thanks to Rich. I disagreed with a lot of what Raoul said (i won’t butcher his first name) however i never got the impression from him that he was doing anything other than what he believed. Add to that he seemed to respect the people he disagreed with as reasonable people with a disagreement. Whereas with Quinn every time he talks anyone not in lockstep with him is insulted and belittled. Raoul has the ability to disagree with you while not being disagreeable. That is one heck of a skill.
- walkinfool - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:07 pm:
Mason born: “he’s got the ability to disagree with you while not being disagreeable. That’s one heck of a skill.”
Yes it is, and I’ve noted it in you and others on this blog.
- A guy... - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:24 pm:
Voted yes. Being credible means already being in. Or at the very least, publicly and popularly considering it in a manner that people are very curious to know your decision. No one fits that bill. There’s an incumbent in this primary. If you’re going after one of those, being out early is among the few things that makes you credible. The big 3; Quinn, Daley, Lisa Madigan set the ante, no one else was rich enough or good enough to sit at that table. Bets are closed, keep your hands off the felt until the ball stops.
- Mason born - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:39 pm:
Walking
Thank you.
- Chicago Cynic - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:52 pm:
Kwame should get into this race. He won’t win but would establish himself as the pre-eminent African American candidate for the future. He’d also cost Quinn the office.
I can state with 100% certainty that neither David Hoffman nor JB Pritzker will be running for governor in 2014. The family thing was quite real for Hoffman (though he wouldn’t have run against Lisa anyway) and Pritzker has other things to do.
- dupage dan - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:23 pm:
Load ‘em up. It would be fun if we saw the same numbers when Cali’s gov was recalled. I bet we’d get alot of interesting folks entering the race. Anything to relieve the inevitable ennui that will come from listening to Daley & Quinn dron on about their accomplishments or the splendor of the Mighty Mississippi River
- jake - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:33 pm:
The only reason it is a possibility is that Quinn and Daley have such enormous negatives, which have been well explored in this blog. But it needs to be somebody who is already well known statewide and does not have big negatives themselves–or else somebody who is wealthy enough to buy quick name recognition, but that brings its own problems. The only person I can think of who has sufficiently low negatives and statewide recognition is Sheila Simon. The question about her is whether she has the stomache for the kind of campaign this would be. I remember her father, when he had to, roughing up Chuck Percy in his first Senate campaign, and how surprised his supporters were that he would do that. Mostly Paul did not have to do that to win, but he could do it when he had to.
- Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:37 pm:
Kwame Raoul would have a legitimate shot.
Luis Guttierrez? Not so much.
- Glass half full - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:39 pm:
There will absolutely be an African American in the Democratic field because 2 70 year old white men can’t really relate to the issues in the community.
Toni Preckwinkle would win this race walking away (Rich, please poll, but it would be an all or nothing endevour and I’m not sur she would take the risk with the Mayoral in 2015 being a freebie
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:41 pm:
===(Rich, please poll,===
No. She’s made it abundantly clear that she has no interest.
- Small Town Liberal - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:55 pm:
Lots of people voting because they hope it’s not too late, but I’d say it is.
With Lisa out the party leaders and unions are jumping off the fence, I don’t see many being pulled to another side at this point.
- horse w/ no name - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 5:04 pm:
Lisa’s decision really set the parameters of the race, so yes it is possible for a name to jump in now and hire some mercenary petition help. It’s just not David Hoffman. Brown seems to overstate the name recognition and fundraising ability of his favorite reformer.
- Jason - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 6:00 pm:
Perhaps I’m out of the loops, but why is Dan Hynes never even mentioned?
- Rolo Tomassi II - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 9:38 pm:
Raoul would be We Are One Illinois guy to the max. Labor has no candidate . He is super sharp.
- Conservative Republican - Friday, Jul 19, 13 @ 9:02 am:
At 450 votes, I voted no and the majority is with me. Here is the reason why a latecomer has a chance.
First, the calendar tells us its not too late. A candidate has to file by the first week of December. So there is plenty of time, Second, a successful latecomer would have to fit the profile of someone who is a palatable alternative to Quinn and Daley. That could be an Obama-type African American candidate, replaying his successful bid for the US Senate in ‘04. I don’t know if Rauol fits that bill or not. Preckwinkle definitely would not because she is too Chicago-bound and wouldn’t be positioned to beat Quinn and Daley downstate. Yet another alternative is a downstate or suburban Democrat. I can’t speak to any of the downstate Democrats because I can’t think of one who has the prestige and resume to be sell-able in suburban Chicago. Several suburban Dems however do fit the bill: Duckworth, Foster, and perhsps Franks. There are infinite reasons why none of them would make such a move, not the least being acceptance of their “place” within the Democratic Party power structure, but on profile alone, they could get in before December and really mix up the race.