Will LMadigan’s withdrawal lead to a GOP win?
Thursday, Jul 18, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From an unsigned analysis on the WTVO/WQRF Eyewitness News website…
1. The Democrats just lost their strongest candidate: This is the most obvious reason. Say what you will about Pat Quinn and Bill Daley, recent polls showed Madigan to be the clear favorite for Democrats. Yes, her father remaining as Speaker of the House would have been an issue for her opponents and many voters. Even with that, however, Madigan was still the frontrunner before she decided not to run at all.
2. Madigan’s exit leaves the Republicans with the stronger group of candidates: When State Senator Bill Brady lost last time, it was by a razor-thin margin, and Gov. Quinn has done little to elevate his numbers since. Brady faces an even tougher fight this time around to just get his party’s nomination, facing off not only against Dillard, who he defeated by a couple of hundred votes in the 2010 primary, but also popular State Treasurer Dan Rutherford. Even businessman Bruce Rauner adds more gravitas to this race because he is going to spend significant money to win it. Whoever of the four emerges will be a legitimate battle-tested contender.
3. Madigan’s exit also makes the Republican race more high profile: Brady-Dillard-Rutherford-Rauner will generate more buzz, not only because there are more candidates spending more money to get the attention of voters, but also because it’s a race which will be fought statewide. Quinn-Daley doesn’t quite have the same appeal, and will be centered mainly around Chicago voters up to the primary. There is a long gap between the March primary and November election, but don’t underestimate the political momentum from winning a hard fought primary in a high visibility race. That’s partly how Barack Obama became President in 2008.
4. Pension reform is a Democratic Party problem: It is the #1 issue in Illinois, and only Democrats can solve it. Even if the Democratic legislature passes a bill and the Governor signs it, questions revolving around what’s in it and what took them so long will dog Quinn and put Daley in the uncomfortable position of having to constantly criticize those in his own party. Madigan’s exit puts less pressure on her father to keep pushing for real reform. Any way you slice it, it’s an issue that helps Republicans.
5. Democrats are perceived as having shown poor stewardship: This campaign will be run against a backdrop of a Democratic Governor and a veto-proof Democratic legislative majority in both houses. Hey Illinois voters, how’s that working for you? The commonly held belief by residents that this state is poorly run gives independent voters tremendous incentive to seek change through a divided government by electing a Republican Governor.
“Madigan’s exit puts less pressure on her father to keep pushing for real reform.” Um, wasn’t he tubing pension reform to help Lisa? I’m confused.
Anyway, not everything was off base. I agree with at least some of it, depending, of course, how the GOP primary plays out. Either way, though, counting on Pat Quinn to lose is a dangerous and foolish game.
Discuss.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:39 pm:
I suppose it’s a nice analysis, but all of those negatives they highlight about the Democratic Party in Illinois existed before the last election. And yet the Democrats picked up seats. Seems their analysis has a few holes in it.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:41 pm:
Oops. Forgot an important point. They also won the Governorship. The last election was a golden opportunity for the Republicans to win back the Governor’s mansion and they blew it. I don’t see how anything has changed this time around that would make it any easier for them.
- Mason born - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:44 pm:
– Even businessman Bruce Rauner adds more gravitas to this race–
Wow i wonder what his definition of Gravitas is?? I think sooner or later Rauner is going to get exposed as all hat no cattle. Real question is will it happen in the primary or will Quinn or Daley get to burst that bubble?
As for Quinn he is great at politics just can’t lead. I think anyone but Rauner has a chance. Brady less so but the other two names are better than even.
- Steve - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:46 pm:
You can’t beat something with nothing. Rich is right “counting on Pat Quinn to lose is a dangerous and foolish game. ” The Republican candidates will have to articulate a message. If they can’t argue they Pat Quinn raised income taxes and tolls and it hurt all Illinois residents: they will not win. But, it Illinois residents want one party rule vote for Pat Quinn or Bill Daley. Bill Daley is going to have to explain why his two brothers Rich and John: have added to Illinois pension woes. It’s fair game to blame the sins of his brothers on him: because he certainly helped them in their careers.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/watchdogs/20534387-452/secret-deal-from-daley-boosted-fire-chiefs-pension-by-27000-a-year.html
- Empty Chair - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:48 pm:
The most ridiculous points in this piece revolve around the Republican primary and having a strong field. What the 2010 cycle proved is that conservatives are the most dominant force in GOP primaries. That’s a large part of how Brady won the primary in 2010.
The contention that the “closeness” of Brady’s loss and Quinn’s stagnation since then helps the GOP is ridiculous. 2010 was the biggest GOP year in a decade and a half. They’re not going to come close to the turnout they had in the general, when they couldn’t beat Quinn whose numbers were relatively where they are now.
And finally, a large and lengthy primary campaign does NOT help a party. It hurts it. Obama’s primary win may have helped him because it was a 1-on-1 contrast with Clinton, but it was not a major factor in his general victory at all. On the contrary, you could argue that Romney’s loss in the 2012 general was largely due to his need to climb out of the mosh pit that was the GOP’s 2012 presidential primary. Long, crowded primaries drain money from the field, force candidates to the periphery of their ideology, and often bring out the worst in a party.
Good luck, Republicans. Keep thinking y’all have this one in the bag. Worked out well for you last year.
- Nosmo King - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:48 pm:
I often wondered why Speaker Madigan wouldn’t step down as Speaker and assume a “kitchen cabinet” position in his daughter’s administration. It now dawns on me why this wouldn’t be the case. It’s apparent she wouldn’t use him in such a capacity. He would have been effectively put on ice had he left.
- The Captain - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:49 pm:
You could make a fair case that this is the second most favorable election for the Republican chances for Governor since 1994, possibly even better than when Ryan won in 1998. But it’s still pretty clear that the most favorable was 2010 and look how that turned out.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:55 pm:
One bright spot for the ILGOP is no Obama at the top of the ticket. Yes, I know that was the same in 2010..which was a GOP year nationwide…and the ILGOP lost.
What was the African-American turnout in 2010? I think Quinn/Daley winner really needs an African-American Lite Gov partner to GOTV.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 1:57 pm:
I wonder why the Speaker would want a strong and popular Democratic Governor? Such a person could undermine his leadership in the House, IMHO.
- Mason born - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:02 pm:
I wonder if the difference between now and 2010 has to do with why Quinn’s disapproval is so high. Personally i think Quinn’s 2010 numbers were partial blowback from Blago. Quinn seemed likable as a nice guy trying to clean up the Hair Piece’s mess. He was in office for less than a year before he started campaigning again.
This time around he owns it. The last four years Quinn has no one to blame for the “mess”. I think that is why he is trying so hard to make it look like the GA is the one thing that is stopping him from saving all of us. Nevermind that it is his party with a majority in the GA.
- PublicServant - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:02 pm:
Nothing will save the republicans from the blood-bath of their primary. Empty Chair has it right.
- Responsa - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:08 pm:
It is easy at this early stage to be condescending and less than impressed with the announced GOP gov. candidates and their performances so far. I am underwhelmed. But it is early. And Quinn has shown us–proven to us– that he can’t do the job. He is an absolute laughingstock to many people even and especially within his own party. Almost everybody I talk to wants him to be replaced–by somebody–anybody–Dem or R. Being a bumbling but “decent guy” ain’t going to win for Quinn him this time. Have all the potential solid primary challengers to PQ come forward?
- titan - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:13 pm:
Is Gravitas the new credit line from American Express?
- Cassiopeia - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:14 pm:
I think its too early to write the GOP off for 2014. I think a lot will depend upon how Obamacare rolls out in Illinois. It has the potential to effect the race, especially if it doesn’t go well since Quinn administration will be on the hook for implementation.
- Empty Chair - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:15 pm:
@Responsa: You say Quinn “can’t do the job,” but you don’t say anything about his inability to win elections. While I don’t concede the former point, ignoring Quinn’s electoral strength is where people get into trouble.
- anon - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:20 pm:
this looks like downstate media propaganda.
- VonKlutzenplatz - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:22 pm:
Does Lisa not being in the race help the GOP? Of course it does. She’s got a proven ability to win statewide. Anytime you take somebody like that out of the picture, it helps.
Heck, if Rutherford dropped out, the Dems would consider it a victory. Win state-wide and you are a threat. The other side would be better off without you.
I’m not buying how her exit will help the GOP field. It sure looks a lot like 2010 at this point. A few conservatives, a guy with a lot of money, and DLARD. Whether or not the Dems are fighting will not change that field.
Have the Dems screwed up? Sure they have. Just as they have for the prior 10 years. The GOP didn’t have the political ability to make that stick though, and it probably depends on the candidate to know if it will stick this time.
Two points the article did not raise — to a lot of us, Lisa looked inevitable. There was no reason to write a check to another candidate when it was clear she was going to win. And why take the risk of backing a loser?
Right now, I see no clear favorite. There is nothing to keep the money on the sidelines. If there is a candidate with some appeal, you can write the check.
The GOP has the potential to turn the way Lisa got out into a strong point against Dems. Her comments about the speaker simply did not make him look good. Given her comments, people might question a party that would have the speaker and the AG from the same family. As part of an across the board attack on Dems, that might carry some weight.
On a somewhat related note, I’m disappointed Cross backed out of the run against Lisa. I think she came out of this looking weak. An aggressive campaign (and yes, I know, there is no reason to believe that Cross was capable of waging one) could take that office.
- Responsa - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:24 pm:
==ignoring Quinn’s electoral strength is where people get into trouble.==
Empty–I may indeed be underestimating Quinn’s “electoral strength”. Of course others may be over-estimating it based on his (slim) victories last go round in both e D primary and the general. My point here is that realistically Quinn is not the same candidate that ran last time.
- VonKlutzenplatz - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:26 pm:
Responsa,
That’s hard to imagine.
Quinn was a pretty terrible candidate last time.
It just happened to be that Brady was even worse.
- LincolnLounger - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:28 pm:
–The most ridiculous points in this piece revolve around the Republican primary and having a strong field. What the 2010 cycle proved is that conservatives are the most dominant force in GOP primaries. That’s a large part of how Brady won the primary in 2010.
With all due respect, sorry, I think this is dead wrong. What about all the conservatives that voted for Jim Ryan because they knew his name? Plenty of conservatives did. What about the 10,000 Schillerstrom votes? Seems to me that a fairly united downstate vote for Brady and a divided DuPage had more to do with it than “conservatives” voting lock-step.
- jeffing in Chicago - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:29 pm:
Quinn won last time because of abortion against a candidate who didn’t win 50% of the R primary voters. If the R candidate is moderate there, Quinn is vulnerable.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:32 pm:
===Quinn won last time because of abortion===
And guns.
Also, downstate unions. Compare Brady’s downstate numbers to Mark Kirk’s. You may be surprised at how the “liberal” Kirk outdid Brady.
- Cassandra - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:37 pm:
The Republicans may be acting a little less self-destructive these days, but they haven’t improved enough. Even if they can tone down the extremists in the runup to the primary, none of their candidates looks remotely promising. In the post-Obama era, affluent white guys well into middle age just don’t get voters very excited.
Which means they won’t be that excited about Pat Quinn either, but he has the enormous advantages
of incumbency and broad name recognition, plus plenty of money and the ability to beef up state programs where the dollars do him the most good.
All Quinn has to do is beat Daley,and I doubt it’ll be that hard.
- Illinoisan - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:39 pm:
The perils facing the ILGOP are not unique to our state. The Republican Party’s national “brand” simply doesn’t appeal to the majority of women and minority voters (and anyone under 25). Demographic shifts in many of the collar counties will reflect this by 2018 - latest. An independent candidate for Gov. would fair better at this point.
- Illinoisan - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:40 pm:
*fare
- Ahoy! - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:43 pm:
The Democrats lost their strongest candidate. Meanwhile the Republicans don’t/didn’t even have a strong candidate.
The Republicans/Brady lost to a bad candidate in an election where a lot of Republicans won. Republicans have a better chance with Madigan out, but I still wouldn’t bet on them. They have way too many issues with women, young people, non-white people and they still don’t seem to have ground game or adequate infrastructure.
- too obvious - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:50 pm:
Surprised anyone at this point would still underestimate the ineptitude of the IL GOP.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 2:57 pm:
Whether Quinn or Daley is the Dem nominee, the GOP still has a brand problem in the state regardless of who their nominee is. The Dixie GOP model doesn’t work here statewide and never has.
How do you get back the Independents who used to call themselves Republicans? It’s the same question, time and again.
- low level - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:09 pm:
While I certainly agree that the Repubs have a brand issue, esp in Illinois, it definitely has not been a good summer so far for the Democratic Party. Whether the damage is lasting remains to be seen.
- walkinfool - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:13 pm:
Interesting points. It is clear that Lisa out does help the GOP.
However, a long and contentious GOP Primary is the route to destruction in the General. We’ve seen that show before.
- democrat Grrrl - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:14 pm:
==Even businessman Bruce Rauner adds more gravitas to this race because he is going to spend significant money to win it. ==
That worked so well for Mitt Romney, surely it has to work for Rauner! I hope no one paid money for this “analysis.” This is the dummest thing I have read in a long time. Anyone who has listened to or read Rauner’s tortured remarks devoid of ANY substance should understand by now that he speaks no substance because he HAS no substance. He has a checkbook, but a fat checkbook does not a governor make.
- VonKlutzenplatz - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:16 pm:
democrat Grrrl,
Lack of substance seems to have done pretty well for the incumbent.
- zatoichi - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:32 pm:
It seems the master assumption was LMadigan for Governor was in the bag. The woulda, shoulda, coulda plans and excuses now all get changed because she says ‘No go’. So what is different now compared to 6 months ago? It still comes back to who is a credible candidate that offers real bi-partisan efforts. Not the ‘fire in the belly’, bland talking points about changing everything that any candidate can fire out in their sleep regardless of party. Not the ‘I can outspend you’ threats. Who is really working both sides of the street? Who is making a concerted effort to understand Centralia and Chicago? Who is putting out reasonable proposals that are getting real support, not just mushrooms doing what they are told. Who is getting positive news coverage? So far none of the major names in the news seem like keepers regardless of their personal ego.
- D P Gumby - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:36 pm:
Not sure that solving pensions will be of benefit to anyone. To solve it will mean hurting people–especially state employees and retirees. Those are people who will, as a result, go out and work against those who done them wrong.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:39 pm:
Lisa’s withdrawl does nothing to help the GOP win the Mansion back.
Why?
In case anyone wasn’t paying attention, or looked closely and the HGOP and SGOP Caucuses, we are monolithic, and the voters seem to think that is who we are.
We in the ILGOP are losing the Moderates and the Independents constantly, and here we are, looking, and hoping that with Lisa out of the way, the sun shines and the clouds part.
The Primary race is going to be a fight so knock-down and drag-out, and Rauner needs to muddy everyone, Democrats and Republicans, so if Rauner loses to any of the other three, he will have wounded My Party’s nominee.
There is no ground swell to BE Republican. No one is going out of there way from being an Independent, to voting Republican in Illinois.
There is nothing, today, that makes a voter say, “yes, I am going to give them another look.”
What needs to be done is to get a Nominee, and that Nominee, working with a braod group, try and change the narrative of what it means to be a Republican in Illinois. we are not monsters, we don’t hate, we are not extreme….
I don’t know yet, I am still digesting Lisa not running, but if I look at the numbers of those ID’d, and see what we in My Party have done since November 2012 to today to improve that … I see …
A party torn by Litmus Tests and Blood Oaths and Politcal Ice Cream served at numerous meeting to try and oust a Chairman on SSM, until everyone was paying attention, then it wasn’t …
That… is the 1st image I have of what My Party is doing to grow…when in fact, others were trying to make us shrink.
Long way to go, possible Lisa leaving helps, but … can we try to help ourselves, first?
- downstate lib - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:41 pm:
1) Is certainly true.
2) Is…unproven. You’ve got a first time candidate, a two-time loser, a previous loser who just lost his money man…Rutherford would be pretty strong, but you gotta wonder how he’ll survive the primary while leaving permanent tax increases on the table.
3) The problem with that one is that more voters live in Chicagoland.
4) This is a problem if they’re still working on it after the primaries. If it’s done by then, while it won’t be “forgotten” per se, it’s such a wonkish issue that most voters won’t take it saliently.
5)is true, but it’s been true since about 2004. It’s been pretty well documented that the Republicans can’t count on victory just because everyone complains about the weather.
I dunno. Republicans can win this one, but these aren’t really the most cogent arguments.
- VonKlutzenplatz - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:41 pm:
Great to learn from Oswego that only Rauner will be muddying people up.
I expected them all to do it, but apparently it will just be Rauner.
What a relief.
- Bill White - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:42 pm:
. . . [T]ry and change the narrative of what it means to be a Republican in Illinois . . .
Okay OW, can you offer a succinct summary of what you believe it should mean to be a Republican in Illinois?
- regular democrat - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:43 pm:
Don’t forget the president can make a huge difference for whoever the candidate may be. He may be a lame duck but he the favorite son on Illinois and still is very popular.
- Loop Lady - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:45 pm:
Quinn will prevail. Too bad that the IL GOP has been taken over by millionaires and right wingers…I dont think Lisa Madigan was a shoe in anyway. The power of the incumbency is huge.
- Mason born - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:57 pm:
Willy
To give you some small hope. I am one of those Independents who votes for whatever side seems to agree most with my views. There is no way i can pull lever for Quinn because now that he has a record IMO it’d be better to elect Oscar.
As for Daley he stinks of the Chicago machine patronage. Add to that “private sector” experience he touts comes from companies with their hands out to the gov. Add in a rich guy thinking he is entitled to a free shot and he’s done.
For Republicans if Rauner wins primary i may actually stay home. The man has no real ideas he just buys massive media and blasts everyone else. As for the other three i’ll vote for them even if i may not be thrilled but compared to Rauner, Daley, or Guinn they are all better.
Of course i voted against quinn last time mainly because of Rod.
- Downstater - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 3:58 pm:
There is well over a year and a half prior until the General Election. I suspect the Republican primary will prove the more interesting of the two just because that race will give more to voters outside the Chicago area to talk about. The Democrats have possessed unchecked power over state policy for over a decade and have few positive accomplishments to show for their stay in power. A Republican candidate that can unite their party’s loyalists Downstate by supporting the party’s platform while offering unique personal elements about themselves to at least get disaffected Quinn supporters from 2010 to consider switching sides would certainly have a better than average chance of winning.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:10 pm:
- VK -,
Rauner is ruinning a race based on the system being broke and it being bad. That is the strategy, because, even you, say he doens’t have to come up with ideas, right? No ideas, then use blame.
Dope.
- Bill White -,
This sounds like an essay part of an exam!
I am not running for office, so I am going to give you this, and if you have specifics, address them.
Republicans in Illinois should embrace the Reagan Rule of 80%, and work together on what we can agree on to move the agenda forward.
“How does that answer MY question to you OW, sounds like a dodge!”
Here is what I do know; I look across the aisle in the House and the Senate, and I see diverse opinions, yet no one is saying to the other “You are not a Democrat!”.
When we go out in the precincts, or go on the Web, or talk to others and we seem to disagree on 2 issues, one seems to say to the other, “Well, then how do YOU call yourself a Republican believing ‘x’ …”
Sandack and Sullivan are not embraced, they are ridiculed. Ridiculed because of one vote, they didn’t even get to take yet? How can we say we want growth, when we ridicule those … already ‘in’?
My Party has boxed itself into this ideal GOP person, and these cookie-cutter candidates lose in swing districts because its way too easy to paint those in my party as extreme …because the actions of those thinking they are helping, are giving voters a true example to that cry.
“Did you see, only ONE Republican state Senator voted for SSM! Illinois Republicans are just too extreme and unwelcoming”
My party beleives in rigidness like a religion,… when a political party is formed on “like” ideals, but bound to work toward common goals. That is the secret. We don’t need to agree on everything, but we need to agree that not everything has to be agreed to!
===…can you offer a succinct summary of what you believe it should mean to be a Republican in Illinois?===
What is should mean, is in districts where 80% of what we Republicans believe in works to get a Republican to win, we should be winning that district. We lose those districts becuase it is too important to have a “real” Republican on the ballot, instead of having a Republican, uncompromised, that models that district, but only agrees with all of us Republicans 80% of the time … and we embrace that, not ridicule the “RINO”.
- VonKlutzenplatz - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:16 pm:
I have to admit that I’m always amused when the alleged Republican who spends all his time here bashing Republicans and praising Dems calls me a dope.
Sure Willy. Go with that strategy. And then wonder why you get your butt kicked every two years.
Do you like losing, son? Are you just too stupid to know that bashing your side and praising the other side is a bad way to get voters to back your side? Which is, it Willy?
Here’s some free advice, son — if you want people to vote for your candidates, make the voters like them. Say nice things about them.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:20 pm:
- VK -,
Calling me ’son’ … that sounds familiar …
- Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:39 pm:
The author seems to forget that we area talking about Illinois Republicans on the other end of this race…
- Independent - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:41 pm:
I’m surprised at the degree to which people underestimate Quinn’s ability to connect with voters. His populistic stuff is often corny and ham-handed but it resonates with many IL voters. In campaign mode he will be at his best bashing Daley the banker and I think it will work.
If the Republican nominee emerges with under 25 or 30% of the primary vote he will not have much momentum for the general. Quinn has his difficulties governing but don’t underestimate his campaigning.
- low level - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 4:53 pm:
As for Bruce, I find it ironic that Republicons always call Dems “elitist” or run by “elites”.
Brady, Rutherford and Dillard all spend years doing the hard work, in lessor known offices, then out of nowhere super rich guy who very few have heard of decided to run and all the deep pocketed Repubicon donors go with him. I almost feel bad for the 3 of them.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 5:07 pm:
–There is well over a year and a half prior until the General Election.–
I make it a little more than 16 months to the general, exactly eight months to the primary.
And a filing deadline sometime in December, I believe.
- A Casual Observer - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 5:36 pm:
Lisa running for governor was going to be more of a pothole for the GOP gubernatorial candidate than a mountain that the GOP candidate would be forced to climb. Lisa was and is popular. I won’t argue with that political fact of life. But, she has been and still is stained by her Democrat Party’s past decade of political inaction for it’s legacy. When you look at Lisa, you still see the Illinois Democrat Party. Voters were going to tag her with “Guilt by association” because they are at the end of their rope. She did the wise thing by stepping out of the gubernatorial race. I doubt that Tom Cross will run against her for Attorney-General. Tom knows better than to throw himself under an oncoming bus. He knows that he wouldn’t be able to beat her.
- Skirmisher - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 7:37 pm:
I have generally detested the demos all of my life and have almoste always mangaged to hold my nose and voted for the elephants. But when I look at the loonie-toons Illinois Republican field, I think I will have to sit this one out (Again) with a bottle of Buffalo Trace. I have every expectation that Pat Quinn, one of the sorriest, most incompetent, hypocrital excuses for a governor that ever held the office, is very likely to win it again. I can’t work up much enthusiasm to oppose him when I consider what is likely to take his place.
- Samurai - Thursday, Jul 18, 13 @ 8:32 pm:
Pat Quinn won 2010 because he was likeable. All thing equal, voters vote for someone they like. All things unequal, voters may still vote for someone they like.
- VPlena - Friday, Jul 19, 13 @ 1:02 am:
A wise man, many years ago, when I was first getting involved in politics and government taught me “You have to be able to count and do the math”. Illinois went from a bell weather/ purple state to a solid blue state. The author of this article doesn’t have a clue. Why ?? Research the election results over the years. Take 1960 as an example. Kennedy beat Nixon in Chicago by 400,000 votes. Pat Quinn’s margin in Chicago in 2010 was 400,00 votes. Nothing changed there. What has changed over the years are the suburbs. Republicans no longer run up the numbers there that they used to. Until the Republicans can appeal to suburban voters again, they are doomed by the numbers. Compare the numbers from 2010 between Kirk who won and Brady who lost. Lake Co. Kane Co. DuPage Co. Will Co. McHenry Co. Those numbers will tell the story. It wasn’t Chicago or downstate that determined the winners. It was the burbs. Republicans who think that 2014 will be like 2010 are foolish. No two elections are ever alike. # 1 The electorate is always changing, and changes in demographics are favoring the Democrats. # 2 the Republicans in Illinois have no platform or answers to the problems facing Illinois other than say the Democrats are screwing things up. The pension mess is a fine example. Both parties, over the years, share the blame for the situation we are in.
#3 With the internet (social media) etc. money is not a big of factor as it used to be.
#4 The more Republicans ( and their hard right wing allies) try to demonize President Obama the more they will drive up Democratic Turnout.
My final thoughts are about the Democratic race for Governor. I felt all along the if the legislature didn’t have an answer to the pension mess, that Lisa Madigan would not run. She could very well be looking at 2016 and a run for the U.S. Senate with a native Illinoisan and very popular Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket. (The last time a Republican got re-elected to the Senate from Illinois was 1978.) Remember my point, Illinois has changed. As to the Quinn vs. Daley matchup, I think “downstate Democrats” will determine the race. I think Daley has the potential to appeal to these Democrats more than people imagine. Of course he needs to get out of Chicago and do the work necessary downstate. Downstate Democrats are more conservative than other Democrats and Daley with his more centrist rather than populist approach could (if he does the right things) get a lot of support downstate.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 19, 13 @ 7:57 am:
- VPlena -,
Good read, thanks for the knowledge.
I agree downstate Dems in their Primary between Daley and Quinn are going to hold the key in the end, but the question I keep asking myself is;
Quinn may have alienated downstate, to a point of disgust, but will a downstate Democratic voter, really vote for a Daley when it comes time to make that choice?
Even with Quinn being …Quinn … and how Quinn has handled downstate in the past year, how far is/was/will be to far to downstate Democrats when the choice in the Primary is Bill Daley.
Great read, - VPlena -.