* Public Policy Polling has a new poll of 557 Illinois voters conducted November 22-25. Let’s start with gubernatorial job approval/favorables…
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat Quinn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Brady?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kirk Dillard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bruce Rauner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dan Rutherford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Those “not sures” indicate that a strong majority of voters don’t know enough about three of the four Republican candidates to make a judgement.
* Head to heads are basically neck and neck across the board…
If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Bill Brady, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 41%
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Kirk Dillard, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 39%
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Bruce Rauner, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 41%
Bruce Rauner………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Dan Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 39%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Rutherford ahead by two and Rauner down by three may be significant, but it’s so early that it probably doesn’t matter much.
*** UPDATE *** I missed it in my first reading, but PPP also did a primary head to head. It’s only 375 GOP respondents, so take it for what it is…
The biggest share of Republican primary voters - 36% - is undecided about who they want as their candidate for Governor next year.
Bruce Rauner leads with 24% to 17% for Bill Brady, 14% for Dan Rutherford, and 10% for Kirk Dillard.
Brady has the lead 21/18 with the ‘very conservative’ voters who helped him secure the nomination in 2010. But among moderate Republicans- less of an endangered species in Illinois than other places- Rauner leads Brady 33/14, giving him most of his overall lead in the primary. [Emphasis added.]
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* OK, now on to the US Senate…
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Not great, but way, WAY better than generic congressional.
* Head to heads…
If the candidates for Senate next year were Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Jim Oberweis, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 51%
Jim Oberweis ………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
If the candidates for Senate next year were Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Doug Truax, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 51%
Doug Truax …………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
He’s over 50 against both of them. Need I say more?
* Two more results…
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rahm Emanuel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 10:55 am:
I’m glad I can break a story once in a while:
Oberweis just announced that he will be giving all Illinois residents free ice cream, in hopes that he can improve his standing with voters.
- RMW Stanford - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 10:57 am:
I would of thought that Durbin would be a little father over the 50% mark. That being said it says a lot about Oberweis, that he is doing only slightly better than Doug Truax.
- J. Nolan - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:01 am:
This fits nicely with Rutherford’s claim that if nothing else, he is the guy to win in the general.
- Snucka - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:06 am:
Keep in mind that Brady led Quinn in almost every poll from beginning to end four years ago. The difference in GOTV efforts was and remains huge. You can’t buy that.
- hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:07 am:
Interesting how quickly and how thoroughly Rahm’s popularity has been decoupled from Obama’s.
Not surprised about the Quinn vs Rutherford/Rauner head to heads but am surprised by his #s vs Dillard and Brady.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:08 am:
@FakeRutherfodDan - A “PPP” poll had me leading against Pat Quinn. Of course everyone is within 3 points either way, so I will just Pretend polls matter, as I watch “Forrest Gump”
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:16 am:
To the Post,
=== so take it for what it is. ===
That is best for all in the GOP Primary and in the Head to Head. If you give it “weight”, then figure in the “weight” of the samples, for example. The total of 375 “is what is is” - good or bad, but “solid”?
- Downstate - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:19 am:
Biggest surprise out of the poll was Rauner’s lead over primary opponents. Many were predicting he would never show up better than 3rd place in that field.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:27 am:
What will happen if Quinn enacts pension reform? Will that take away the Republicans’ main talking point, that Democrats aren’t qualified to fix the fiscal mess? Will enough public union members bail on Quinn and vote for the Greens, a third party candidate or just sit this one out?
If Quinn passes pension reform, he will argue that he passed pension reform twice, legalized gay marriage, medical marijuana, etc.
- Rod - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:35 am:
All good news for Quinn because Rauner leads the GOP pack and polls weaker heads up against Quinn. As more and more Rauner Carhartt advertisements run the better he will do with the Illinois Republican electorate. Governor Quinn is a lucky man - its all good for Democrats.
- AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:39 am:
Grandson
This is the pickle he’s in. He’s viewed as weak and lacking in leadership. So he first courts the unions to get re-elected, then turns on them after the election’s over. He won against Brady largely because of public union support. If he passes pension reform, that resembles anything like the rumors we’ve heard, he further distances himself from the voters that were his supporters in 10. I voted for Dillard in the GOP primary, and would have voted for him in the general. When Brady was the nominee I was not going to vote for a candidate that was blaming me & the rest of my co-workers for Illinois’ problems. I held my nose & voted for Quinn. I did not want to vote for Quinn, but Brady put my career in jeopardy. The GOP leadership has a real chance to win the Governorship in 10. But backing Rauner because he’s got lots of money isn’t going to beat Quinn. Rutherford has been moderate in his approach to both the pension issue and the temporary tax increase. He also, at the moment, has the best shot at beating Quinn. He’s already won a statewide race in a blue state. I am looking at Rutherford as a serious alternative to Quinn, and I have been encouraging AFSCME leaders in my local to do likewise.
“What will happen if Quinn enacts pension reform? Will that take away the Republicans’ main talking point, that Democrats aren’t qualified to fix the fiscal mess? Will enough public union members bail on Quinn and vote for the Greens, a third party candidate or just sit this one out?
If Quinn passes pension reform, he will argue that he passed pension reform twice, legalized gay marriage, medical marijuana, etc.”
- AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:40 am:
That should read: The GOP leadership has a real chance to win the Governorship in 14.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:50 am:
You all can disregard the Gov polls. Our stealth write-in campaign for Oswego Willy will overwhelm the two buffoons running in the General.
*** Oswego Willy for Governor - He doesn’t own NINE homes ***
- Formerly Know As... - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:52 am:
The poll doesn’t seem to indicate whether those “voters” are registered voters or likely voters.
That factor may bear an impact, especially on those primary numbers.
- Will Caskey - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:56 am:
Emanuel only has a net -10 statewide? That’s pretty impressive!
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:56 am:
Basically, this poll should be read as, despite Illinois being a strongly blue state, Republicans and Democrats each start out with 40% of the vote going into the election. The net of these results is that this race is completely up in the air, both for the primary and the general. That said, it’s very interesting that Rauner finally leads a poll.
Rich, did you run a generic question in your poll? Who would you prefer? A Democrat to be our next gov or a Republican. It would be really interesting to compare that to these results.
The other things stuck out at me were that Rahm is amazingly unpopular - polling even below Quinn and that Durbin isn’t polling higher than 51 against those two.
- J. Nolan - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 11:58 am:
In the face of two other recent polls saying the exact opposite I would reaaalllyyy caution the 375 folks number. And who those voters are and their voting pattern.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:07 pm:
- Norseman -,
I leave the strategy in your very … Very capable hands. I have no doubt you have the campaign where it needs to be.
To the Post,
The takeaway for me is that while it seems fun to ask questions, even Durbin should not read too good or too bad in these numbers.
Truax and Oberweis have nothing gained or lost.
Fun for discussion I guess.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:09 pm:
Quinn’s approval rating in October 2009 - https://capitolfax.com/2009/10/26/facing-up-to-reality/
45% approve
53% disapprove
Quinn’s approval rating now:
34% approve
60% disapprove
The more the public sees someone and is exposed to them, the more the public should like them. Not less.
If Pat Quinn were dating Illinois voters, the relationship would no longer be “rocky” or “struggling”.
This is “breakup” territory.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:13 pm:
In the guvs race, there’s a reasonable path to victory for all five candidates.
But only one of them is sure to get out of the primaries.
Given the slow and weak recovery, incessant bad publicity and Quinn’s own negative ratings, if I were him, I’d be happy with the one-on-one numbers at this point.
- The Obvious - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:19 pm:
60% disapproval of Quinn during the same week everyone was celebrating the historic marriage bill signing. Which means his numbers will never be better than they are now. There will most certainly be a Green on the ballot to take away votes of Democrats angry about the attack on pensions and his pro-fracking bill.
I hope Democrats remember the decision not to primary Quinn when Rutherford becomes Governor.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:21 pm:
===This is “breakup” territory===
Actually, it ain’t. He was polling much the same right before 2010’s election day.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:32 pm:
“The more the public sees someone and is exposed to them, the more the public should like them. Not less.”
On what planet is that true? Usually it goes exactly like this. You love someone until they do something you don’t like and then you don’t. Put another way, governing often breeds contempt.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:33 pm:
===On what planet is that true? Usually it goes exactly like this.===
You can say that again, bruddah.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:35 pm:
Everyone is “in-play”, all 5 Guv candidates.
The winner is going to come down to who can get their voters to the polls - best, period.
True in a 4-way Primary, true for whoever faces Quinn, (See ‘Quinn-2010′)
- Rahm'sMiddleFinger - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 12:40 pm:
It’s interesting to me that Rauner’s favorability is already upside down. Even though he’s spent $3 M advertising and has taken no real hits. That’s not a good sign for the general.
- train111 - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 1:02 pm:
To me it look like a redux of the recent Virginia election. Boatloads and boatloads of cash spent for 2 candidates who nobody particlarly liked and a 3rd party candidate getting a larger % (Libertatirans got 6-7%–something like that)
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 1:25 pm:
=== On what planet is that true? ===
=== the more the public should like them ===
Emphasis on “should”, @Chicago Cynic. That is the way things “should” work, not the way they always “do” work.
Jim Edgar is a good example of this. You know, the guy who “left office with the highest approval rating in state history”.
Off the top of my head, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan are others whose approval ratings improved from beginning to end of their administrations.
Locally speaking, Paul Simon, Lisa Madigan, Judy Baar Topinka and a host of others may serve as additional examples of the way things “should” be, for both the politicians we support and individuals we marry or date.
The more you get to know them, the more you should like them. Not less.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 1:32 pm:
If these too early polls “don’t mean much”, why post them?
It’s not that they don’t mean much, it’s that they are almost useless this far out. Other than keeping pollsters happy, a waste
- Tommydanger - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 2:25 pm:
The fact that Quinn is competitive with every Republican speaks to how blue Illinois is. The constant drumbeat of bad news about our state should be enough to sink any governor. And since a candidate’s negatives increase with attacks during the primary and then the general, it seems to me like Quinn has to be ‘happy’ with such numbers. Short of a Weiner-like scandal, I can’t imagine that Quinn’s negatives will go up any further.
- downstate hack - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 2:25 pm:
Surprised Durbin’s approval rating is below 50%. Beatable but not with the Oberweiss.
- Ruby - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 2:35 pm:
Although many of us may not really approve of Quinn’s job performance, he will still get our vote because in comparison to Quinn the competition seems so uninspiring, unappealing, and perhaps even untrustworthy.
- Rahm'sMiddleFinger - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 2:36 pm:
Also interesting in the crosstabs is that about 15% of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 are supporting the Republican candidate… today. Most will eventually come home to Pat Quinn.
Quinn is probably at his floor right now. As bad as his approval numbers are, he’s in a relatively good place.
- Keyser Soze - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 2:41 pm:
Is it theoretically possible for someone with a job disapproval rating, that greatly exceeds a corresponding approval rating, to be elected to anything, save for an election boycott by all but the candidate’s immediate family?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 2:44 pm:
Keyser Soze, check PQ’s October, 2010 approval ratings. Upside down. He won.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 4:27 pm:
Wow. I almost agree with Anonymous 1:32.
Whoever runs against Quinn is still going to have to get through a Republican Primary.
And I do not believe that selling your guy’s “ability to win the general” because of money, his boyish good looks, whatever as an argument to vote for him during the Primary, is going to work this time.
- Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Nov 26, 13 @ 7:24 pm:
Message to Pat Quinn re. the Results of this Poll: Beware…(especially if DR gets in, who he’s apparently MOST concerned about)…THIS one may end up tighter than in 2010!
Message to Dick Durbin: Same ‘ol/same ‘ol–Yes, Sir, Senator: you can begin to start plannin’ your next 6 Years in D.C. once again…! (And feel free to enjoy whatEVer Ice Cream Brand you prefer from time to time, yes–even the one with THAT name–’cuz it’s not really gonna matter)!!
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 27, 13 @ 12:35 am:
Just the Way it is One, if I’ve never told you before, I love your posts.
You and CFC always get me to thinking.