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Watch the bouncing ball
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* State Sen. Kirk Dillard was on a Quincy radio station this morning. A quote…
“Pat Quinn didn’t lift a finger to pass pension reform.”
…Said the guy who voted “No” on pension reform yesterday.
Dillard, by the way, talked about another reason for voting against the bill yesterday. He’s concerned about how all those savings were going to be spent.
* Dillard appeared on the show with his running mate, Rep. Jil Tracy, who voted for the pension reform bill yesterday. Go to the six-minute mark to watch her try to explain her difference of opinion with Dillard…
* Rep. Tracy said she thought the bill was a “fair and reasonable solution.” More…
“I felt like this was a very decent product to put out there and it did pass very narrowly, but I came at it from a different point of reference and as a conference committee member I did support it.”
* The night before, Dillard spoke to a Quincy tea party meeting…
He said he voted against in-state tuition for illegal immigrants noting that State Sen. Bill Brady [voted for it].
More…
“I am the one candidate that I believe will receive substantial African American support… I believe that if I’m the nominee, Rev. James Meeks, the largest black Baptist pastor in the City of Chicago, a congregation of 20,000 people, will endorse me for governor.”
Video…
* Dillard also spoke on today’s radio program about the Barack Obama campaign TV ad he appeared in…
“He used a clip of mine and I never thought it would get on TV.”
Um, OK.
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Davis poll confirms huge lead
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Roll Call…
Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., holds a large lead over his GOP primary opponent, former Miss America Erika Harold, according to a poll obtained exclusively by CQ Roll Call.
Davis leads Harold by a massive 48 points in the poll of likely GOP primary voters commissioned by his campaign and conducted by the GOP survey firm Public Opinion Strategies. Twenty percent of respondents in the poll said they were undecided.
The survey showed Davis with 63 percent and Harold with 15 percent.
The results underscore Harold has a monumental challenge ahead to defeat Davis in the primary — which is just over three months away on March 18. Ninety-three percent of respondents said they had heard of Davis, while 45 percent said they have heard of Harold.
The poll interviewed 400 likely Republican primary voters via live telephone surveys between Nov. 19 and Nov. 21. It had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
Harold also has a severe cash disadvantage, reporting just $99,000 in cash on hand at the end of the last quarter. Davis reported $882,000 in the bank at the time.
* Those numbers are almost exactly the same as an October 10th We Ask America poll…
The poll of 859 Republicans, taken Oct. 10, showed that Davis was the choice of 63 percent of the likely Republican voters, to 16 percent for Harold. About 21 percent of those polled were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percent.
A poll taken exactly four months earlier, on June 10, by the same Springfield polling firm, We Ask America, found that Republicans favored Davis, 53.55 percent to 16.38 percent.
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Today’s numbers
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The AP published some pension reform bill impact numbers from the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability…
Employee 1
Retired teacher, 30 years of service
Initial annual benefit: $67,000
Annual pension benefit after 20 years of retirement: $121,009 a year under the current pension system; $91,183 under the proposed changes
Cumulative 20-year decrease: $284,030
Employee 2
Retired Department of Children and Family Services caseworker, 25 years of service
Initial annual benefit: $30,000
Annual pension benefit after 20 years of retirement: $54,183 under current system; $46,122 under proposed changes
Cumulative 20-year decrease: $76,765
Employee 3
Retired teacher, age 75, with 30 years of service
Initial annual benefit: $25,000
Retiree’s COLA increase would remain unchanged until benefit reaches $30,000, which is years of service multiplied by $1,000. After that, the annual benefit would drop below what it would be under the current system.
Annual pension benefit after 10 years: $33,598 under current system; $33,529 under proposed changes
Cumulative 10-year decrease: $137
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Here are our 2012 Golden Horseshoe Award winners, with runners up in parentheses…
* The Wordslinger Golden Horseshoe Award for Best CapitolFax.com Commenter: Oswego Willy (Michelle Flaherty)
* The Mike McClain Golden Horseshoe Award for Best Statehouse Insider: Mike McClain
* Best Statewide Officeholder: Auditor General Bill Holland (Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka)
* Best “Do-Gooder” Lobbyist: Bruce Simon (Kathy Drea)
* Best Contract Lobbyist: Tom Cullen (Ed Peck)
* Best In-House Lobbyist: Rob Karr (Mark Denzler)
* Best Legislative Liaison: Bresha Brewer (Cameron Schilling)
* Best Illinois Congresscritter: US Sen. Dick Durbin (Congressman Bob Dold)
* Best State Agency Director: Malcom Weems (Amy Martin)
* The Mark Beaubien Lifetime Service award for the Illinois House: Rep. Skip Saviano, Rep. Joe Lyons (tie)
* The John Millner Lifetime Service award for the Illinois Senate: Sen. Susan Garrett (Sen. Tom Johnson)
* Best Illinois State Senator - Republican: Sen. Matt Murphy (Sen. Pam Althoff)
* Best Illinois State Senator - Democrat: Sen. Don Harmon (Sen. Dan Kotowski)
* Best Illinois State Representative - Republican: Rep. Jim Durkin (Rep. David Harris)
* Best Illinois State Representative - Democrat: Rep. Elaine Nekritz (Rep. Greg Harris)
* The Steve Brown Golden Horseshoe Award for Best Government Spokesperson: Joe Tybor (John Patterson)
* Best legislative campaign staff director: Will Cousineau (Brendan O’Sullivan)
* Best campaign staffer - Illinois House Democrats: Shaw Decremer, Kristen Bauer (tie)
* Best campaign staffer - Illinois House Republicans: Bob Stefanski (Nick Bellini)
* Best campaign staffer - Senate Democrats: Jill Dykhoff (Sam Strain)
* Best campaign staffer - Senate Republicans: Helen Albert (Rachel Bold)
* Best State Senate Staffer - Non Political: Giovanni Randazzo (Kim Schultz)
* Best State House Staffer - Non Political: Samantha Olds (Tyler Hunt)
* The Beth Hamilton Golden Horseshoe Award for Best House Secretary/Admin. Assistant: Carol Shehorn, Sally McDaniel-Smith (tie)
* Best Senate Secretary/Admin. Assistant: Robin Gragg (Melissa Earle)
* Best political bar in Springfield: DH Brown’s (JP Kelly’s)
* Best political restaurant in Springfield: Sebastian’s (Saputo’s)
* Best bartender: Mike at DH Brown’s (Jamie at Boone’s)
* Best waiter/waitress: Annie at Sunrise (Jess at Brown’s)
* The Question: Any suggestions for additions and/or subtractions? It may be getting too long.
We kick off the awards again tomorrow, so start thinking about your faves.
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Raters, markets like reforms, but…
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Fitch Ratings…
Fitch views the passage of pension reform legislation in Illinois yesterday as a positive indication of the state’s willingness to take action on this complicated issue after many failed attempts. Fitch has stated that pension reform that enhances the funding levels of the pension systems and controls the growing impact of pension payments on the budget is necessary to stabilize the credit, and will analyze the reform to determine the extent to which it does so. Supporters have stated that the reforms will save $160 billion over the next 30 years; however, the actual impact of the reform will not be entirely known until an actuarial study has been completed. Further, legal protection of pension benefits is particularly strong in Illinois and Fitch believes legal challenge to the reform is likely.
Fitch’s rating on Illinois, at ‘A-’, with a Negative Rating Outlook, is the lowest for a U.S. state. This reflects a record of the state’s unwillingness to address its numerous fiscal challenges, including but not limited to the large and growing unfunded pension liability. In addition to action on pensions, maintenance of the rating will require timely action on a more permanent budget solution to the structural mismatch between spending and revenues in advance of the expiration of temporary tax increases. Temporary increases in both the personal and corporate income taxes that have been supporting the budget since 2011 are scheduled to begin to phase out in fiscal 2015, which begins on July 1. [Emphasis added.]
* Crain’s talked to Moody’s…
For Moody’s, breaking the gridlock over pension reform was almost as important as the agreement itself — but any decisions on the state’s credit rating won’t be made until analysts review the actuarial data underlying savings claims.
“Interestingly, the legislature’s action does appear to end a long period of political paralysis,” said Ted Hampton, a vice president and senior Illinois analyst for the Wall Street credit rating agency. “We’ve lowered the rating repeatedly because of the legislature’s failure to deal with this problem. The legislature has taken some action to alter that history of being unable to reach any agreement. I think that’s significant.”
“Based on what we’ve heard, these reforms do appear substantial,” he added, if the actuarial analysis backs them up. “The other big asterisk is that we have to see how this reform package fares in the courts.”
* And…
Municipal bonds from Illinois rallied to a one-month high after lawmakers broke through decades of political gridlock to pass a measure addressing the nation’s worst-funded state pension system.
About $4.4 million of taxable Illinois general-obligation bonds maturing in March 2016 traded today at an average yield of 1.8 percent, the lowest since Nov. 8, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Yields move inversely to prices. The volume that changed hands was the highest since July.
The “good” news, as far was Wall St. goes, is that the General Assembly was finally able to come to a bipartisan agreement.
The bad news is the aggressive push-back against this agreement between Democrats and Republicans from GOP Sen. Mark Kirk, Bruce Rauner, the richest man in Illinois Ken Griffin as well as tea partier types like Sen. Jim Oberweis’ US Senate primary opponent will make it difficult to forge more such agreements on other issues down the road.
* What the Rauner/Illinois Policy Institute/Etc. cabal wants is for the Republicans to withdraw from negotiations and make the Democrats take all the hard votes by themselves. Dan Proft sent this out Monday…
According to [the Republican legislative leaders’] conduct, being the wheelman for Chicago Democrats’ latest heist of Illinois taxpayers (and public sector pensioneers) is morally superior and politically preferable to not participating in the crime. […]
Sen. Radogno appeared on the WLS radio show I co-host in Chicago this morning defending her support for the Madigan pension deformation legislation wherein she said, “I didn’t come (to Springfield) to play partisan games.”
Clearly. And that post-partisan patter is precisely why Republicans are in the super-minority.
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Today’s funny
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Fox 32 has a pretty funny story about Speaker Michael Madigan’s “Republican” opponent Terrence Goggin, who is running “against” Madigan for the fourth time since 1998, even though local Republican Party officials have never met the man. He’s an obvious plant…
Angela Reyes, a circulator for Goggin, said she would be happy to discuss the petitions she passed for him until she was questioned further.
Reyes father said that she had no comment and that the only thing he knew about her political affiliations was that she would go with the precinct captain to interpret for the Spanish people in that district, seemingly making her a Madigan supporter.
* But check this out…
Another odd twist to the question of Goggin’s running stance is the Republican Party’s plans to challenge the petitions filed by him to try and knock him off the ballot.
According to [Chris Cleveland, Vice Chair of the Chicago Republican Party], “We’re tired of the Democrats mucking around in our internal process. We’re tired of Mike Madigan’s sleazy tricks. We have raised money all year for this. We are ready to take him on.”
Cleveland says the idea is to find enough bad signature’s on Goggin’s petitions that he’s disqualified; then, slate a real Republican to run in the general election.
OK, first of all, if the Chicago Republican Party has truly “raised money all year for this,” then why didn’t they try to put a candidate on the ballot in the first place? No guts, no glory.
And secondly, do they really think that MJM’s organization is careless enough to muck up Groggins’ petitions?
I’ll believe it when I see it.
* Watch the video. It’s even better…
Chicago News and Weather | FOX 32 News
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Subsidy bills left undone
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP…
Illinois lawmakers have adjourned without approving bills proposing tax incentives for Archer Daniels Midland Company, chemical distributor Univar and newly-merged OfficeMax and Office Depot.
The Senate OK’d two bills Tuesday. One would give ADM up to $30 million in tax breaks. The other calls for roughly $58 million in incentives for Univar and OfficeMax.
However, the House adjourned after a pension vote.
* Speaker Madigan was asked yesterday to respond to ADM’s declaration that it needed a decision by the end of the year…
Q: On the ADM bill – you didn’t call that bill.
Madigan: “It’s still under consideration.”
Q: They’re saying they want an answer by the end of the year.
Madigan: “OK, well that’s nice.”
Heh.
* Meanwhile…
Also Tuesday, State lawmakers have adjourned without approving legislation supporters say would give the horse racing industry a needed boost.
Arlington International Racecourse officials said in a Tuesday statement that they’re disappointed.
Legislation allowing online betting on horse racing expires at January’s end. Race dates would be severely cut if legislators don’t renew the betting law and give Illinois’ racing board access to money wagering generates.
The plan renews the betting law for three years, calls for a surcharge on wagers and provides off-track betting licenses at parks.
A House committee approved legislation Monday. But it didn’t come up on the floor Tuesday as lawmakers approved major pension overhaul.
* More…
The legislature will have just one day to prove that it does because the current legislation allowing advanced deposit wagering is scheduled to elapse at midnight on Jan. 31, 2014, and the legislature is not scheduled to reconvene again until a one-day session on Jan. 29.
In the past, however, the legislature has set aside that day solely for the annual state of the State address and not convened to pass legislation.
If there is no action taken on the 29th, a doomsday scenario outlined by the Illinois Racing Board could kick in, one that would cut Arlington’s 2014 meet nearly in half and decimate the schedules of other thoroughbred and harness tracks around the state.
While it promises to be a nail-biting finish, Petrillo said Arlington and the racing industry as a whole will spend the next two months doing everything it can to improve the odds of getting the legislation passed.
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Thankfully, a false alarm
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
A Springfield fire official today said tests revealed baby powder was the suspicious white substance that fell out of an envelope in a building across from the Capitol.
Springfield Fire Chief Ken Fustin said officials will continue to investigate the matter because a letter also in the envelope indicated criminal intent, though he declined to reveal what the letter said.
The tests were done after an employee in the mail room of the governor’s constituent services office opened an envelope containing a letter and white powder fell out, Fustin said. The employees contacted emergency officials and a hazardous materials team was sent in, Fustin said.
* SJ-R…
The office that received the letter was the Governor’s Office of Citizen Assistance. That office receives the phone calls, e-mails and mail that the governor receives from the public.
The citizen assistance office is just one office in the building at 222 S. College St.
After the workers discovered the powder and called the fire department about 10:30 a.m., the ventilation system was turned off and workers in other offices were told to remain where they were.
About four or five workers that had contact with the letter were isolated.
Fustin declined to elaborate on what the letter said.
From what I was told, the powder was taken seriously, but much more so after the letter was read.
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Maybe this can wait
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The very same columnist who broke the story about the expensive Statehouse copper doors wrote this without irony today…
For 30 years, I have seen the same old, same old in Springfield. At this time of year, workers climb onto the roof of the Capitol and string those multi-colored holiday lights.
It’s nice and everything, and it’s better than doing nothing, but those lights have gotten very, very old and tired. I am guessing that after so many years of this, people on the streets of Springfield glance at those lights, shrug because they have seen them so many times and then go on their way. That’s if they notice them at all anymore. […]
I suggest the state take a page from the Empire State Building. Put spotlights on the lower level of the Statehouse roof, point them at the Capitol dome and light it up. […]
The Illinois Capitol being a state government building, it’s not going to be used to promote private events, as is the Empire State Building. Everybody has their own cause to push and that can’t be accommodated. […]
Light up our Capitol dome for some national holidays and on 9/11 and on Lincoln’s birthday and other occasions deemed appropriate and non-controversial. I like the idea of lighting the Capitol dome in red, white and blue for July 4, Lincoln’s birthday, on the 200th anniversary of Illinois’ statehood in 2018 or for the annual Police Officers Memorial Day procession through Springfield.
But let’s take this idea a step further. The technology exists to project images onto objects even as huge as the Capitol dome. Why not project Lincoln’s image up there on his birthday and for other Lincoln events, such as the commemoration of the 150th anniversary of his burial in Springfield, taking place in 2015?
I actually like the idea.
But after the copper doors flap can you imagine the uproar if the state paid for all that?
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Quinn’s big win, Dillard’s big gamble
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
[The pension reform vote win] comes on the heels of Illinois in November becoming the 16th state to sign a bill legalizing same-sex marriage after just months earlier the Illinois House didn’t have the votes to even call the matter for a vote.
There’s no doubt the “ineffective governor” label once slapped on Quinn is starting to peel off.
A victory on pensions — aimed at boosting the state’s dismal fiscal shape — robs Republican rivals of their most powerful ammunition against the Democrat.
Already Tuesday, Madigan, D-Chicago, took a shot at Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Rauner, who has repeatedly called the pension compromise a bad deal for taxpayers.
“I find Bruce Rauner to be particularly disingenuous in his approach to this. My view is he would like to blow it up so he could maintain a campaign issue,” Madigan said from the Statehouse Tuesday. “So the passage of the bill, the anticipated signature by the governor — Rauner has lost one of his campaign issues.”
* The Trib included a different take in its coverage…
Though Quinn is expected to take the credit for the pension measure, lawmakers acknowledged that it was the leaders of the General Assembly who drove the process. Cullerton, the Senate president, said the governor “did just barely enough” to help get the pension bill passed, but thanked Quinn for his support.
Quinn did more than just “barely enough.” He was crucial to the bill’s passage.
Cullerton doesn’t care for Quinn, didn’t want to pass the bill and wasn’t exactly elated with its passage…
“There’s some provisions in the bill that were added by the Republicans that make it less constitutional, there’s no question about that,” said Sen. John Cullerton, Illinois Senate President.
But, credit where credit is due, he worked the bill very hard.
* The pension problem is most certainly a major issue and it’s now off the table. But Illinois still has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation, an unpopular tax increase set to expire in a little over a year, enormous remaining budget pressures, a continuing problem with past due bills and what looks to regular folks like calcified Democratic leadership.
In other words, Quinn ain’t outta the woods yet, campers.
* And neither is Sen. Kirk Dillard, who voted “No” even though he had voted for every other pension bill opposed by the unions…
Dillard said he locked himself in his law office to read the 300-plus paged bill and believes the vote on the matter was rushed.
“Sometimes it takes a couple of extra laps around the track before the race to begin,” Dillard said.
“I have never, never shied away from a difficult vote in the legislature. I can tell you that I’ve voted for tough pension reform before, I’m ready to do it again,” he said. “I’m ready to make that vote. I reluctantly, reluctantly rise against this.”
The decision comes after weeks of speculation that Dillard planned to vote against pension reform in hopes of maintaining a healthy relationship with organized labor. Dillard denied as much to the Sun-Times in the past.
* Mark Brown…
[Dillard’s] reasoning came across like a guy trying to justify a strategic political decision instead of as the bipartisan statesman he has long held himself out to be. It was especially inexplicable considering that his lieutenant governor running mate, Jill Tracy, supported the measure.
This was a day where you could see who was interested in standing up and being counted as a truly serious legislator.
* And it may not help. You’ll recall this poll I commissioned…
“Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a Republican candidate for governor who received hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from public employee unions?” 1,614 likely Republican primary voters were asked Aug. 21 in a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll.
An overwhelming 80 percent said they’d be less likely to back such a candidate, while a mere 8 percent said they’d be more likely to do so.
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* From a We Are One Illinois press release…
“This is no victory for Illinois, but a dark day for its citizens and public servants.
“Teachers, caregivers, police, and others stand to lose huge portions of their life savings because politicians chose to threaten their retirement security, rather than pass a much fairer, legal, negotiated solution in Senate Bill 2404.
“It’s bitterly ironic that, on the same day legislators used the state’s troubled finances to justify stealing the retirement savings of public servants, they approved millions of dollars in new tax giveaways for big corporations.
“A majority of legislators ignored and defied their oaths of office today—but Governor Pat Quinn doesn’t have to. He can stay true to his oath and the legal promise made to public employees and retirees by vetoing this unfair, unconstitutional bill. If he doesn’t, our union coalition will have no choice but to seek to uphold the Illinois Constitution and protect workers’ life savings through legal action.”
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Rauner doubles down, pivots to economy
Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a Bruce Rauner press release…
“Springfield politicians [yesterday] voted to slap a small bandage on an open wound. While it may help them temporarily feel better, it does little to fix the real problems facing Illinois. The pension system remains broken and badly underfunded. State spending has never been higher, or less productive. Another tax hike is looming around the corner. State government is in desperate need of reform. Our economy continues to suffer, and far too many Illinoisans remain out of work. The fact is after decades of career politicians running things in Springfield, expectations of what Illinois can accomplish are far too low. We can and must do better. I’ll shake things up in Springfield and deliver results that will truly bring back Illinois.”
Notice that he’s now pivoting to things that aren’t easily solved by passing a single bill, like it was with pension reform.
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