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Poll: Cross down to single digits
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * It looks like suburban Cook and Chicago are reverting to form. As we saw earlier this week, Gov. Pat Quinn is now slightly ahead in suburban Cook in a We Ask America poll, the first time that’s happened all year. And a new We Ask America poll also shows significant tightening in the state treasurer’s race. Rep. Tom Cross’ lead has slipped from The sample was more Democratic than the firm’s recent Quinn poll, which could account for some of the slippage. Cross did around as well in the new poll as in the July poll with Downstate and collar county voters. The real changes are in Chicago and Cook…
Most of those Chicago undecideds will break toward Frerichs, and so will a substantial amount of the suburban Cook vote. So, Frerichs is likely in the hunt, and that million dollars he’s planning to spend on TV won’t hurt at all. * Meanwhile, Tom Kacich had a fascinating angle on the endorsement of Cross by the Illinois Chamber this week…
Emphasis added for obvious reasons. No way could Cross back up Rauner’s numbers without losing all credibility.
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- Anon - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 9:57 am:
If Cross and Rauner both win, then it will be up to Cross to put up or shut up. I predict that the self-described watchdog would become a lapdog if Rauner, instead of Quinn, is proposing the budgets.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:05 am:
Can someone please check to make sure Oswego Willy is okay? Choking? Heart attack?
- Easy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:12 am:
frerichs is running behind his own party registration on this poll. still mired in the 30’s and it’s September. awful.
There will be no environmental boost for Frerichs which means he will have to vastly (3:1) outspend Cross in an already over crowded Chicago media market. Plus, Frerichs is getting crushed downstate.
Cross is still on track to get his 20% out of Chicago. that’s the key.
- A guy... - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:12 am:
A van is on the way.
- Bogey Golfer - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:18 am:
I think I answered this poll on Tuesday. Was ‘undecided’ for U.S. Senator or Governor, but voted for Cross for Treasurer. Clearly, the intent is will Quinn and/or Durbin pull Frerichs up with them. Cross has a 57 to 24 lead in the collar counties and a 50 to 30 lead downstate.
Look for commercials to start in the Chicago market for both candidates.
- wordslinger - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:18 am:
Good news for Quinn and Frerichs that suburban Cook is flipping so early.
- Lance - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:19 am:
So if the conventional wisdom is that the GOP has to win 20% of the Chicago vote to win, that would mean Cross has to win only 15% of the Chicago undecideds in order to get to 20%??
- Big Debbie - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:19 am:
So Frerichs, who has had little statewide name recognition, has continuously moved up in the polls through this race, and Cross, who has significant statewide name recognition, has continuously lost support. Frerichs has double the campaign cash on hand than Cross. Even in off-year elections, this is a blue state. But the Frerichs campaign has been seen as in a free-fall by Springfield insiders?
Sometimes it’s good to step outside the bubble and just look at the numbers. This will be a close race, but if I were picking a position to be in, it would be Frerich’s.
- Rack it Ralph - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:20 am:
Rich,
Any idea why they think the amount of Dem voters will be higher in the Treasurer
race than the Governor? Just seems really strange to me that they would use different sample sizes for the same election.
- Big Debbie - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:26 am:
^^^ When polling you pick random people and ask them their party affiliation. You don’t pick “sample sizes” of political affiliations to poll. That wouldn’t make any sense or give you a statistical analysis.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:48 am:
Willy? Willy?!
- low level - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 10:54 am:
This despite a really bad start and some inept staff. Good. Glad to see.
I was surprised by the Chamber endorsement. They endorse the guy (Cross) that went from co sponsor of pension reform to not only dropping off being a sponsor but voting No.
And they reject the guy (Frerichs) who voted yes despite having a ton of state workers - University Employees - in his district.
Glad to see they like courageous politicians.
- walker - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 11:01 am:
Too early and singular, to call Cook Co suburbs “flipping” yet. We’ll see with the next couple of polls.
That is a key market for Bruce.
- low level - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 11:07 am:
YDD -
OW will turn up I’m sure.
Walker - Bruce who? In the Treasurer’s race, there is a Mike and a Tom. Bruce is in the Gov’s race, just so you know.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 11:23 am:
Hey!
I had therapy to attend, I found time to hit some golf balls this Friday! lol
Ok, let’s look at this through the awful for Cross first…
===Good news for Quinn and Frerichs that suburban Cook is flipping so early.===
Yep. If the tide is rolling out to sea on ya, it’s hard to dock your rowboat in harbor. Of everything, that should scare the Cross Crew the most.
Positives?
===frerichs is running behind his own party registration on this poll. still mired in the 30’s and it’s September. awful.===
This is the same problem Oberweis has, and further, just numbers-wise, it’s like the Oberweis/Frerichs are the looking glass situations.
The party faithful, that may or even may not know them, aren’t choosing them.
…
- Lance - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 11:27 am:
Debbie is spinning she would rather be down by 6 points than up by 6 points?? ummm ok…
- Precinct Captain - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 11:34 am:
==frerichs is running behind his own party registration on this poll==
There is no party registration in Illinois.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 11:44 am:
- Precinct Captain -,
My absolute bad & fault, I rushed on the cut and paste.
You are correct, apologies.
“Identified Democrats”, however they are looking at that, via 2 of 3 primary ballots requested, etc.
Thank you for that correction to my obvious oversight and quick response, not fully reading my grab. Sorry.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 11:47 am:
Cross is also up 20 points in Identified Independents.
That’s “2″ “0″… 20.
Spin all you want, ahead 20 with Indies, I would choose that seat…today.
- A guy... - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 11:53 am:
Focus Willie. This one matters to you. It’s the only worthy GOPer in the state besides JBT. Stay on it.
- Almost the Weekend - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:03 pm:
We Ask America stated in the article Tom Cross has higher name recognition, that $1.1 million will move those numbers, and more independents and Dems will start going towards Frerichs way. Cross needs to raise at least $600K this quarter to have any chance of matching that media buy before October. I can’t see any down-ballot statewide candidate raising that much money with Quinn and Rauner grabbing every dollar. If Cross can match that then it is a whole different ball game. It is only nickels compared to Rauner and Quinn’s media buy, but it still gets his name out, which Cross is unable to do.
Frerichs better hope he wins this cycle because his campaign is doing him no favors for his State Senate seat in 2016.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:05 pm:
- A Guy… -, Rauner is a Raunerite, who win the GOP Primary. Please learn.
Cross’ Crew would probably want me as far away as possible.
- A guy... - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:09 pm:
And there you go putting hope where there was none.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:11 pm:
Willy:
I am glad you are alright.
YDD
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:16 pm:
- YDD -,
I had to sneak in a session. You made me defend Cross, on purpose, yesterday. I was in a Bizzaro World funk.
I look foward to Comptroller Topinka and Tom Cross, the Durkin Crew making moves, and the SGOP doing some damage, so I feel pretty comfortable…
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 12:48 pm:
Dear Mr. Willy:
“Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”
Sincerely,
Bill Gates
- wordslinger - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 1:25 pm:
Was the “historic” state chamber endorsement of Cross in lieu of business ponying up money for him?
I’d much rather have the money. Why can’t he raise money? Can’t Rauner hook him up with some of his network?
- low level - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 2:14 pm:
Wordslinger - after the last week, Rauner might need all that cash for himself.
I guess the Chamber no longer supports pension reform as they endorsed a guy that voted no and ran for the exits vs. the guy that took a big hit when he votes yes.
- A guy... - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 2:48 pm:
A Friday funny; if this article were about Rahm, could we be talking about half digits?
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 3:06 pm:
- YDD -,
I’m still on my Wooden quotes, but I like yours.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 3:31 pm:
Thanks Willy. Have a great weekend, and be sure to get your meds refilled.
It is going to be an interesting August, I think.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 3:32 pm:
LOL.
September…guess I need to cut BACK on meds.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 3:34 pm:
No worries - YDD -, I am trying to golf more to stay off the Plummer meds.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 3:38 pm:
And indeed, have a good weekend too…Maybe over the weekend, I’ll talk to Cross about this poll(?)
- The Dude Abides - Friday, Sep 5, 14 @ 4:58 pm:
So Cross is now saying that he is going to be a watchdog and make sure things are done right. Is this the same Tom Cross who violated his oath of office when he voted for a pension bill that he knew was unconstitutional? Call me old fashioned but I don’t think anyone who knowingly violates his oath of office belongs in a cabinet position.