DCCC poll: Schneider up by 5
Wednesday, Sep 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Despite spending by outside interests approaching $1.6 million in the 10th CD, freshman Democrat Brad Schneider is still apparently leading former Congressman Bob Dold. Lynn Sweet shares details…
An automated poll by the Democratic House political operation shows Rep. Brad Schneider D-Ill., ahead of former Rep. Bob Dold Ill., by five points.The survey of the north suburban 10th congressional district in Illinois was conducted in-house by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and found 11 percent undecided. […]
In the head-to-head, Schneider was outpacing Dold by 47 percent to 42 per cent.
From a DCCC polling memo…
“Schneider performs especially well among women voters, where he leads by 7 points (47% to 40%) and maintains especially strong personal favorabilities (+20 net positive, 38% favorable, 18% unfavorable). By comparison, women voters’ opinions of Dold are almost evenly divided (36% favorable, 31% unfavorable, 33% unsure).”
The DCCC is doing in-house automated polls, eh? Interesting.
- Edwardsburg - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 4:03 pm:
Rich, are you going to be polling the hot Congressional races again anytime soon? I trust We Ask America more than a DCCC or NRCC poll.
- bored now - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 4:06 pm:
it’s cheap, and you can export the data into your voter file…
- walker - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 4:07 pm:
Too early. The cannons have hardly begun to fire. This will be closer than 5% for sure.
The only ads I have actually seen (not including those posted on CapFax) have been positive intro ads from Schneider aimed at his base.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 4:29 pm:
I don’t understand why the DCCC would leak this. It’s pretty meaningless at this point and can’t help with fundraising.
Why give money to a campaign that’s bragging it’s up by five, when there are other vulnerable incumbents out there?
Do they think it will hurt Dold’s fundraising? I doubt that very much.
- Empty Chair - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 4:41 pm:
I don’t think “in-house” means that the DCCC operated the system that conducted the poll, I think they just had their retained pollster (PPP) do it. I trust PPP more than WAA.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 4:42 pm:
DCCC poll?
Ok - thanks.
But only 5?
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 4:48 pm:
Also relevant == The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percent. ==
Plus, @walker nails it. We have yet to hear the cannons roar.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 4:55 pm:
Dold’s attacks are not playing well with women on the district.
Basically, Schneider is under fire because his wife brings home the bacon.
There are a crapload of professional women in that district, those that no longer work used to, and they all talk to each other.
I would just pull up stake now. Close, maybe, but no cigar.
- The Wonderboy - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 5:02 pm:
Almost the Weekend…you’re sure? Like…really, really sure?
It’s an early poll and the data is likely only useful for tracking and message development.
The level of certainty and the amount of experts in the room this cycle may actually drive me to early retirement.
- ChinaTown - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 5:14 pm:
Almost - not sure why WAA is somehow the gold standard now just b/c they’ve done a lot of stuff in IL recently.
And to the point about in-house polling, it’s something committees and larger interest groups have been doing now for a couple years and it’s generally accurate. The tech makes it easy. You just don’t see the numbers that come back with a really bad result.
- mytwocents - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 5:45 pm:
Adam Smith is wrong - the tenth district has changed significantly and Dold can no longer count on the Kenilworth/Winnetka conservatives to give him the edge. Dold also has lived two suburbs outside of the district for four years now. And it’s hypocritical for him to criticize or question the way Schneider makes his money when Dold was named to his position with his family business during his first run, to counter his image as a ne’er do well.
- ZC - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 6:21 pm:
Right, 2010 is kind of meaningless now. Dold would win this district pre-redistricting. But it’s not Kirk’s district anymore.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 6:38 pm:
Commenters: “Don’t pay attention to poll results, pay attention to me!”
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 7:28 pm:
I try to stay as open minded as I can regarding polls, but I do have to take exception for DCCC and any GOP counterparts.
It is those polls job to make their candidates look good. If 5 percentage is the best the DCCC can do for this incumbent Democrat, then this race is at a minimum a toss-up, which is what other polls are saying.
Having a DCCC poll showing you up by five, and you are the Democratic incumbent is like hearing a parent tell their 30 year old spinster daughter that she has a “great personality”, when asked if she is pretty.
LOL
- Watchdog - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 10:17 pm:
This is a D+8 district and the DCCC is polling that Brad Schneider is up 5 points. Something tells me this is a little off here with President Obama winning the district 57% in 2012, and Brad 51-49. An unpopular Quinn is likely to lower turnout and many low propensity voters are not aware of the upcoming election. Schneider’s is targeting these low propensity voters as they presume they are Democrats, but will their efforts be in vain for a public at large that is so disinterested in politics. I think this poll overstates dem turnount because of these reasons, even though there is an attempt to increase absentee ballots again this cycle. This race will be within 3 point this time, and to be honest, I can only see Dold pulling away by 3.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 12:03 am:
===This is a D+8 district ===
In a presidential year. Wake up. It’s 2014.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 8:04 am:
Quinn won this district 47-46 in 2010.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 8:31 am:
Vanillaman -
Campaigns and national umbrellas make internal strategic decisions involving the allocation of massive resources based on these same polls. The idea they are intentionally skewed is absurd.