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YouGov poll has Rauner ahead by 3 points
Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * An online poll from YouGov conducted for the New York Times and CBS News has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn 44-41. Without “leaners” it’s a 41-37 Rauner lead. Quinn is getting 77 percent of Democrats compared to Rauner’s 84 percent of Republicans. Independents go Rauner’s way 55-26, which ain’t good at all for the guv. Just 66 percent of African-Americans (who tend to break late) say they’re with Quinn, compared to 14 percent who are with (12 percent) or leaning toward Rauner. That’s good news for Rauner, of course. I dunno about these YouGov polls, but the NYT seems to dig them, so there you go.
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- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 2:47 pm:
Start to put all these polls together, track them all…and it’s pretty doggone close.
GOTV will decide this. Motivated voters will define this. Understanding where hay can be made can swing this.
Way too close for comfort for them both.
- MrJM - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 2:49 pm:
Isn’t there going to be a third name on November’s ballot?
– MrJM
- phocion - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 2:51 pm:
If Rauner picks up 14% of the AA vote, Quinn is going to be hard pressed to find a path to victory.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:02 pm:
Like MrJM, I’d like to see the third name.
I never thought anyone would run away with this. I still don’t, although I think Quinn’s path to victory is narrower.
Quinn hasn’t had a lot of fun decisions to make during his tenure, and the other guy is promising ice cream and ponies for everyone.
- Snucka - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:05 pm:
I participated in this poll. I can report that they do not include the political party of the contenders, even though it will be listed on the ballot. I have to wonder how that affects the results.
- Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:06 pm:
Rauner has 55% of independents. He probably should at this point. The real guts of the campaign have barely started. So… if in a month Rauner has over 50% independents, then I would worry. But, if they include Grimm on the next poll, no way he has more than 50.
- Ando - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:08 pm:
This is where the race is. One poll today has Quinn leading by 3 points. This one has Rauner leading by 3 points. The WeAskAmerica polls showing Rauner leading by 10-12 points were bogus. In a blue state with many more Democratic voters, this is a toss-up. Toss out the old polls on HuffPost showing Rauner up by 10-12. Those were before Quinn started his TV ads showing Rauner’s position on wanting to lower the minimum wage.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:09 pm:
Quinn is facing corruption news next month.
He has to be able to lose voters between now and then and I don’t see him with a surplus.
I see ice cream and pony television ads between now and then, as well. Rauner will present himself as a Good Humor Man, Mr. Fix-It, the Geiko Gecko and offer seniors free catheters.
- DuPage Bard - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:11 pm:
The race is on and it looks like heartaches and the winner losses all.
- Snucka - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:17 pm:
This is a close race. It’s not about who is going to gain or lose voters between now and November. It’s going to be close to the end, and the deciding factor will be who has the better-organized GOTV. Historically, I’d have to say that the Democrats are better in that category and I have a feeling they can make up a 4 or 5 point polling deficit with early voting and Election Day ops.
- Gooner - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:21 pm:
Rauner’s message has been everywhere and yet the polls are showing a very tight race.
He really needs to shake up his staff or this is going to end up with Quinn winning comfortably.
Rauner’s spending a lot of money, but he’s just not connecting with voters. The more they hear, the less they like.
- Put the Fun in unfunded - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:30 pm:
Same day voter registration could play a big role in Chicago and for college students with good GOTV for Quinn, though college students in a non-presidential year is always tough. I don’t see same day registration helping Rauner.
- paddyrollingstone - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:35 pm:
DuPage Bard - Kudos on “the Race is On.” I know it is not Grateful Dead original but their version is fantastic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-4ebkWmuTs
- Dave Fako - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:35 pm:
“I participated in this poll. I can report that they do not include the political party of the contenders,”
If this is true, then the poll is seriously flawed, even though most voters are probably aware of who the Dem and Republican is + now the Libertarian (who they would have no idea about).
If this is true, the pollster and sponsoring media should be called on it and the poll should not be reported.
- Summerwind - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:35 pm:
Rauner is probably capped at 14% of the African-American vote. If Quinn, then, goes from 66% to 86% among African Americans, looks like a dead heat.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 3:37 pm:
– I don’t see same day registration helping Rauner.–
I think Quinn will be a greater beneficiary of a Lewis registration drive.
- QCLib - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 4:31 pm:
Apparently I had a discussion with a republican campaign operative friend and told him some tactics I use for field and GOTV. I talked to him a few days ago and he said he met with Rauner’s people months ago and told them my ideas and they’ve apparently been running with it.
I have no idea if that is true, or if their field strategies actually did come from my suggestions unintended to be used by BR, but if they’re doing things right, Rauner is in a good place I’m afraid to say.
I might be totally talking out of my rear right now though.. it’s just something I was told a few days ago.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 4:34 pm:
Serious Question. Shouldn’t all polls from this far out include the Libertarian candidate? They are bound to take some votes from Rauner. I just think it would make for a more accurate picture.
- Jechislo - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 5:46 pm:
Rauner’s ground game and field strategy is very, very good.
- Old Top - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 10:52 pm:
Way too early….likely v registered blah blah blah….folks just don’t see elected officials helping to make a difference. If late September\October brings any ‘bad news’ voters may just show up and toss everybody out like 1980
- QCLib - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 11:33 pm:
Based on what I’ve heard of BR’s ground game, it’s extremely good.
- mike - Thursday, Sep 11, 14 @ 11:59 pm:
I can’t imagine BR’s ground game will drag him past the finish line. I imagine his base is extremely motive and will come out for him in droves. The effectiveness of Quinn’s ground game will make or break him, though.
- Anonymous - Friday, Sep 12, 14 @ 8:07 am:
5% of the poll is unacounted for?