With the Tribune poll included, Rauner is “Up”, but it still feels beyond all that’s out there that Rauner is up ahead of the MOE, with a 3-7 point lead.
Quinn is rising, I can see and feel that, but Rauner is still ahead, but not surging ahead at all.
Rauner is a rich guy who spends millions that he’s a regular guy when he could be using the money to explain his plan for Illinois.
Quinn is Quinn.
Partisan voters come home to their guy.
Low turnout could sink Quinn. But if the Dems do a reasonable job on GOTV Rauner and Griffin will have lit their money on fire to show the world they have money to burn.
My expectation is still on Rauner. Undecided usually break for the challenger and I expect that this year especially…unless they come up with something to scare voters against Rauner. Haven’t yet.
HuffPo is calling the Trib poll a likely voter poll. If it wasn’t, someone should disabuse HuffPo of that notion. They might be weighting it too heavily.
Tribune poll was a likely voter poll. They screened out folks who were not planning on voting.
This race has reached an inversion point, I think.
Rauner attacks are not sticking to Quinn.
Rauner is becoming defined in Independent voters minds in a way that is not good.
At the same time, Rauner has big problems with his base that most of us have ignored because we have been focusing on Quinn’s problems with his base.
Quinn’s base seems to be coming around, although downstate labor is a question mark.
The Tribune poll is also consistent with the most recent Reboot Illinois poll which showed Tom Cross slipping in Chicago metro.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:01 pm:
It’s still early but it’s probably safe to say it’s a close race. A few more weeks of polling might give us clarity…or confusion.
The most important info I get is that Quinn appears to be in this race. With Quinn’s low popularity, in other scenarios he could be a goner this early.
I thought that Rich had said the Trib poll was a registered-voter poll. I can’t read it because I’m not a subscriber, so what I have are HuffPo saying it was LV and Rich saying it was RV.
With Quinn, I always think back to what Archie Bunker said about President Ford: “Hey, you leave Jerry Ford alone! He’s doing a h*** of a job, for a guy nobody voted for!”
Tribune poll or not the fact of the matter is that things are tightening. What regular reader of this blog did not think the race would tighten up after Labor Day?
This news really reaffirms what most people already predicted.
===Tribune poll was a likely voter poll. They screened out folks who were not planning on voting.===
I’m pretty sure YDD is right. I recall hearing Rick Pearson say that the Tribune only used the responses of those people who said that they were at least likely, if not sure, to vote.
Trib is ambiguous in the three articles I read on the poll. The referendum article said registered voters. The Senate article and Goober article both had the same ambiguity that leaves it unclear:
The poll, conducted Sept. 3 through Friday by APC Research Inc., featured interviews on landlines and cellphones with 800 registered voters. It has an error margin of 3.5 percentage points and a confidence level of 95 percent. That means if it were possible to contact every likely voter registered in Illinois, it could be said with 95 percent certainty that the results would differ by no greater or less than 3.5 percent.
I suppose that ambiguity could be their way of saying likely voter, but I would’ve thought if that were the case, they would’ve said, “…with 800 registered voters who indicated they were likely to vote.”
The Trib poll may say they screened to pick up likely voters, but their quoted MoE at 3.5% is mathematically what you would get for a sample of 800 voters. That’s the number of registered voters in their sample. If they had a likely voter screen it should show up as a smaller sample than 800 and hence a larger MoE.
Since neither candidate has a proposal that will improve the fiscal situation in Illinois, it really doesn’t seem to matter who the Governor ends up being. Election after election we allow the candidates and political parties to get away with sidestepping the real problems with proposals that may appeal to a certain base, but have no basis in reality. Most people do not have a clue when going to the voting booth. They vote for an ideology rather than taking the time to to really find out the facts. The solutions to our fiscal problems exist but are not popular. So let’s all continue to pretend that we are discussing viable solutions to this very serious problem and then complain after the election about the one who is elected not keeping their promises. Peace.
I believe Quinn is actually ahead at this point. He has defined Rauner as an elitist and still manages to come off as a common though somewhat bumbling man. Not over, but IMHO trending toward Quinn.
The Tribune poll clearly rattled the Rauner crew, but it was probably a blessing for them this far out. They need to give their media strategy a serious re-think.
The Regular Guy stuff is a waste of money. Always has been. You can’t sell it, because there’s always a counter-punch to the gut: wine clubs, million-dollar homes, clout, Cayman Islands, etc.
It reached the absurd level with the shaggin-wagon spot. Seriously, dude, that’s what you think of regular people? That they drive around in filthy wheels filled with garbage?
What’s the message? “I’m a slob, just like you?”
Geez, no one thought that was a bad idea?
Rauner’s top priority now is to answer the coming barrage of business practice negative spots. They’re an attack on his whole reason for being in the campaign: the hands-on CEO who’s a corruption buster.
The Sgt. Schultz act won’t cut it anymore. I don’t know if he has a good response, but that ain’t it.
===It reached the absurd level with the shaggin-wagon spot.===
I missed this one. LOL. That concept may have really shook up Springfield. Coulda broke the watch, put the Carhart to really practical use, and had a high end glass of wine. Sling- you are a thinker, man.
The fact is republicans picked the only candidate Quinn could beat. The telling sign for me is the number of long time local republicans that are part of the party machine and had or have state jobs. They may not vote for Quinn but they certainly won’t vote for rauner, so that tells me it was over before it started. The only enthusiasm locally is from the upper class, might as well say rich people for rauner on those signs.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:42 am:
With the Tribune poll included, Rauner is “Up”, but it still feels beyond all that’s out there that Rauner is up ahead of the MOE, with a 3-7 point lead.
Quinn is rising, I can see and feel that, but Rauner is still ahead, but not surging ahead at all.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:42 am:
Interesting. This might be the closest to accurate there is. Watching the trend lines with the cursor is very interesting.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:46 am:
Rauner is a rich guy who spends millions that he’s a regular guy when he could be using the money to explain his plan for Illinois.
Quinn is Quinn.
Partisan voters come home to their guy.
Low turnout could sink Quinn. But if the Dems do a reasonable job on GOTV Rauner and Griffin will have lit their money on fire to show the world they have money to burn.
- Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:47 am:
My expectation is still on Rauner. Undecided usually break for the challenger and I expect that this year especially…unless they come up with something to scare voters against Rauner. Haven’t yet.
- Tequila Mockingbird - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:51 am:
There should be a line for those of us who are sick of both.
- Levi - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:51 am:
HuffPo is calling the Trib poll a likely voter poll. If it wasn’t, someone should disabuse HuffPo of that notion. They might be weighting it too heavily.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:55 am:
If you’re sick of Rauner and Quinn, feel free to write-in “Cyclops” for Governor.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:01 pm:
Tribune poll was a likely voter poll. They screened out folks who were not planning on voting.
This race has reached an inversion point, I think.
Rauner attacks are not sticking to Quinn.
Rauner is becoming defined in Independent voters minds in a way that is not good.
At the same time, Rauner has big problems with his base that most of us have ignored because we have been focusing on Quinn’s problems with his base.
Quinn’s base seems to be coming around, although downstate labor is a question mark.
The Tribune poll is also consistent with the most recent Reboot Illinois poll which showed Tom Cross slipping in Chicago metro.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:01 pm:
It’s still early but it’s probably safe to say it’s a close race. A few more weeks of polling might give us clarity…or confusion.
The most important info I get is that Quinn appears to be in this race. With Quinn’s low popularity, in other scenarios he could be a goner this early.
- Levi - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:09 pm:
I thought that Rich had said the Trib poll was a registered-voter poll. I can’t read it because I’m not a subscriber, so what I have are HuffPo saying it was LV and Rich saying it was RV.
With Quinn, I always think back to what Archie Bunker said about President Ford: “Hey, you leave Jerry Ford alone! He’s doing a h*** of a job, for a guy nobody voted for!”
- Modest proposal - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:24 pm:
Tribune poll or not the fact of the matter is that things are tightening. What regular reader of this blog did not think the race would tighten up after Labor Day?
This news really reaffirms what most people already predicted.
- Mighty M. Mouse - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:25 pm:
===Tribune poll was a likely voter poll. They screened out folks who were not planning on voting.===
I’m pretty sure YDD is right. I recall hearing Rick Pearson say that the Tribune only used the responses of those people who said that they were at least likely, if not sure, to vote.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:28 pm:
Trib is ambiguous in the three articles I read on the poll. The referendum article said registered voters. The Senate article and Goober article both had the same ambiguity that leaves it unclear:
The poll, conducted Sept. 3 through Friday by APC Research Inc., featured interviews on landlines and cellphones with 800 registered voters. It has an error margin of 3.5 percentage points and a confidence level of 95 percent. That means if it were possible to contact every likely voter registered in Illinois, it could be said with 95 percent certainty that the results would differ by no greater or less than 3.5 percent.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:29 pm:
I suppose that ambiguity could be their way of saying likely voter, but I would’ve thought if that were the case, they would’ve said, “…with 800 registered voters who indicated they were likely to vote.”
- muon - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 1:06 pm:
The Trib poll may say they screened to pick up likely voters, but their quoted MoE at 3.5% is mathematically what you would get for a sample of 800 voters. That’s the number of registered voters in their sample. If they had a likely voter screen it should show up as a smaller sample than 800 and hence a larger MoE.
- Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 1:14 pm:
I know this was a question yesterday, but to me it would be an “upset” if this election is won by either Quinn or Rauner by more than 1% or 2%.
- Mokenavince - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 1:46 pm:
This will be a very close race. 4 more years of Quinn and Madigan. That swooshing sound is business leaving the state.
- Quiet Sage - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 1:51 pm:
Despite their many failings and blunders, what you have here are two basically strong and talented campaigners, in completely different ways.
Illinois is a strongly blue state.
2014 will be a huge Republican year.
This will be very, very close.
- nobody - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 2:20 pm:
Since neither candidate has a proposal that will improve the fiscal situation in Illinois, it really doesn’t seem to matter who the Governor ends up being. Election after election we allow the candidates and political parties to get away with sidestepping the real problems with proposals that may appeal to a certain base, but have no basis in reality. Most people do not have a clue when going to the voting booth. They vote for an ideology rather than taking the time to to really find out the facts. The solutions to our fiscal problems exist but are not popular. So let’s all continue to pretend that we are discussing viable solutions to this very serious problem and then complain after the election about the one who is elected not keeping their promises. Peace.
- downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 2:37 pm:
I believe Quinn is actually ahead at this point. He has defined Rauner as an elitist and still manages to come off as a common though somewhat bumbling man. Not over, but IMHO trending toward Quinn.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 2:40 pm:
The Tribune poll clearly rattled the Rauner crew, but it was probably a blessing for them this far out. They need to give their media strategy a serious re-think.
The Regular Guy stuff is a waste of money. Always has been. You can’t sell it, because there’s always a counter-punch to the gut: wine clubs, million-dollar homes, clout, Cayman Islands, etc.
It reached the absurd level with the shaggin-wagon spot. Seriously, dude, that’s what you think of regular people? That they drive around in filthy wheels filled with garbage?
What’s the message? “I’m a slob, just like you?”
Geez, no one thought that was a bad idea?
Rauner’s top priority now is to answer the coming barrage of business practice negative spots. They’re an attack on his whole reason for being in the campaign: the hands-on CEO who’s a corruption buster.
The Sgt. Schultz act won’t cut it anymore. I don’t know if he has a good response, but that ain’t it.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 3:10 pm:
===It reached the absurd level with the shaggin-wagon spot.===
I missed this one. LOL. That concept may have really shook up Springfield. Coulda broke the watch, put the Carhart to really practical use, and had a high end glass of wine. Sling- you are a thinker, man.
- 618662dem - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 5:24 pm:
The fact is republicans picked the only candidate Quinn could beat. The telling sign for me is the number of long time local republicans that are part of the party machine and had or have state jobs. They may not vote for Quinn but they certainly won’t vote for rauner, so that tells me it was over before it started. The only enthusiasm locally is from the upper class, might as well say rich people for rauner on those signs.