* Departures from US Sen. Mark Kirk’s staff (either to Bruce Rauner’s staff or to the private sector) have prompted yet another round of speculation that Kirk isn’t running for reelection in 2016. Not so, says Kirk…
“No frickin’ way am I retiring,” he told CQ Roll Call in an exclusive interview Thursday from his Capitol Hill office, following some speculation in local press over the senator’s future and shifting political operation. ”With all this rehab, for me just to walk was a huge effort. I had to re-learn how to walk again after the stroke. And all the rehab and all the effort shows the mental determination times 10 to keep serving.”
In an extended interview, Kirk sought to dispel any notion this means he’s ready to leave — or that he lacks the stamina to seek re-election after suffering an ischemic stroke in January 2012. Kirk said he feels great, and any opponents who question his fitness to do so will regret it.
“That would not be taken well by the people of Illinois who would not like that kind of attack,” Kirk said. “That would be an advantage to me if they did that.” […]
“It’s the only way that Democrats can win in Illinois, is to say, ‘Ohhhh Kirk has health problems, he’s going to retire,’” Kirk said. “For Democrats looking at a minority life and seeing that they cannot win in Illinois is so frustrating that they will just assume away any issue. They’ll just say to willing reporters, ‘I think Kirk is going to retire.’” […]
“The other day, one of our CBS 2 reporters said, ‘Hey Kirk, every day I see you out there you have a calendar like a candidate,’” Kirk said. “I said, ‘That’s cause I is one.’”
*** UPDATE *** Oops. I didn’t see Lynn Sweet’s story…
Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., is interested in a 2016 Senate run against Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., but for now is focused on the impending birth of her daughter, who is due any day.
A member of Duckworth’s team — who is familiar with how Duckworth is approaching the possibility of a 2016 run — confirmed that Duckworth is “interested, open and curious” about a Senate bid and is receptive to having conversations about the race. […]
Duckworth is putting off looking at the race more seriously until she has her baby and knows everyone is healthy. Duckworth announced she was pregnant on Labor Day. […]
Besides Duckworth, Democrats mentioned are Rep. Bill Foster, Rep. Mike Quigley, Attorney General Lisa Madigan and state senators Andy Manar and Kwame Raoul. Foster is very, very interested. Madigan may be content to stay put and keep an eye on Rauner. Kirk could squish the relatively unknown state senators.
If AG Madigan runs and wins, Gov. Rauner would appoint her replacement. Wouldn’t that be a sight to behold?
- Precinct Captain - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 9:41 am:
The Kirk arrogance is astounding.
- Nieva - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 9:47 am:
He will be reelected by a landslide or at least a mud slide!
- Roadiepig - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 9:51 am:
That’s cause I is one”
I guess speaking in poor English makes him seem more folksy, just like our new governor? I just don’t get why politicians do this, unless they think is bonds them with the unwashed masses?
- SO. ILL - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 9:52 am:
Maybe he was just being playful. For crying out loud it’s Friday - maybe don’t take yourself (or everything) so seriously Roadie
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 9:53 am:
===makes him seem more folksy===
I agree with So. ILL. Take a breath. I chuckled at it.
- lake county democrat - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 9:54 am:
If the GOP has brains, they’re going to back Kirk to the hilt: this should be a 2 Dem senator state (and would have been but-for Lisa Madigan’s - well, some Madigan’s - decision to spurn President Obama’s request to run for his old spot), now Democrats have an uphill climb. Kirk is almost a picture-perfect candidate for them in a deep blue state. Tammy Duckworth may be a good prospect, but it took a gerrymandered district and Joe Walsh fatigue to get her into office.
- Rick - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 9:55 am:
I’ll be interested to see if Kirk has problems in the GOP primary. Maybe Rauner’s cash and muscle will help him fend off any challenge from the right. If he does get a conservative opponent, he should be rooting for a close GOP prez primary that’s still alive in March to bring out a lot of voters. That’s pretty unlikely. A low turn-out, right-wing dominated electorate might spell doom for Kirk.
- A. Nonymous - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:07 am:
Why do people (press) keep listing L-Mad for Senate?
She already passed when it was an open seat. Why would she take on a relatively pipular and politically strong incumbent for it in 16?
She wants to be governor. Period.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:09 am:
I don’t think Kirk is worried so much about Democrats as he is about the national right-wing money going after him in a primary.
In those circles, Thad Cochran is a RINO.. Kirk probably looks like Lenin to them,
Mayve Kirk will catch a break and Obie will challenge him.The ROI for the right-wing money was oogats in the primaries. But I’d watch out for Truax. He put up some good numbers without spending a dime.
- low level - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:10 am:
Mark Kirk’s Senate voting record is hardly as moderate as the image he tries to portray. From just a cursory overview: NO on the ACA (meaning he preferred it when people with pre-existing conditions couldn’t get insurance and died going broke trying to pay for coverage); and YES on shutting down the government last year.
Theres plenty more as well.
- ZC - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:10 am:
It all depends on the next two years and the perception of the new GOP congress after then. Kirk is going to have to take some votes now that will be fodder back home. But the GOP primary ing him is madness, in this democrat’s opinion. He’s the best shot they have holding this seat.
- Apocalypse Now - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:11 am:
Lisa Madigan is off the table, as a candidate. No way would the Dems risk having a Republican appointed Attorney General for 2 years. Especially, going into Rauner’s re-election year.
- walker - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:12 am:
Too early for Tammy, though stranger things have happened. If Lisa isn’t interested, then Kirk’s only real challengers will come from his right in the primary.
This will indeed be a test for a “Raunerized” ILGOP.
- low level - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:13 am:
LCD - how about specifying portions of his record (aka votes) that back up your claim rather than generalities?
- Anonymous - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:13 am:
Kirk will win big unless Lisa Madigan is willing. Then all bets are off.
- William j Kelly - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:17 am:
A Pro life, pro gun (basically pro Republican Party platform) libertarian candidate in the general would be a real problem for sen. Mark ‘I is one’ Kirk.
- The Captain - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:18 am:
Unless the Democrats are very, very stupid they will have two women at the top of the ballot. Kirk will probably have to change his gender if he wants to hold this blue state seat. It’s going to look a lot like 1992.
- Tom Joad - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:20 am:
Why didn’t Kirk address why so many of his staff are leaving with two years left in his term? That would do more to stop the rumors than this false bravado.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:20 am:
The mouth breathers at IL Review were just discussing their feelings for Senator Kirk the other day. Some of them are pining for Chad Koppie to take on Kirk. That should give you an indication of where those folks stand on Kirk’s prospects for 2016. Of course, these people are mostly complainers not campaigners, so consider the source and all. But it’s interesting to see how Kirk makes some of these self-professed “conservatives” foam at the mouth.
And please please please don’t let Tammy Duckworth run. She’s got her hands full hanging on to her current seat and there are several other first-tier Democrats who can give Kirk a better run for his money than she can.
- 1776 - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:27 am:
Speaking of a war on women, I was shocked that Nancy Pelosi refused to allow Tammy Duckworth to cast a proxy vote for leadership because she’s pregnant and can’t fly to DC.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/dems-won-t-lift-ban-on-proxy-voting-for-duckworth-20141113
- Walter Mitty - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:28 am:
With all due respect, Tammy served our Country with honor and distinction. Please tell me what she has done in her position? She did well at the Vet hearings. She has stayed WAY below the radar. I would think Kirk would welcome that challenge.
- Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:28 am:
Bill Foster or Pat Quinn (as mentioned by Hinz) would certainly continue Kirk’s time honored tradition of getting to run against weaker candidates. (Seals, Seals, Giannoulias…)
- Oneman - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:29 am:
Speaking of Duckworth I saw an item that the dems will not let her vote for leadership since she can’t make the meeting.
Foster running for senate, that’s interesting
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:30 am:
The problem that Democrats have is that their strongest candidates would be giving up a seat in Congress that the Dems would not be guaranteed to keep with a new candidate.
Duckworth, Bustos, or Foster would start as strong candidates. I actually think Bustos may be the best of those three. Duckworth has not run great campaigns. She’s great on paper but it has not translated to the campaign trail as well as would be expected.
One person who has never been mentioned but who make a strong candidate would be Brendan Reilly. He’s got strong GOP support in his ward but he also has not burned any bridges with Democrats. He’s stood up the Mayor on some fiscal issues and has done so while not being one of those reflexively anti-Rahm people. Whoever wins the primary is going to need strong Chicago support in the general.
Will Burns would be another very effective candidate, although I’m not aware of any GOP support for him. He’s usually the smartest guy in the room, but does so without coming off as arrogant.
I don’t view Lisa Madigan as a serious alternative. She just has not shown any real desire for a job other than A.G. The same goes for Kwame Raoul. He keeps getting mentioned, but he hasn’t shown any real interest in moving up.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:34 am:
===If AG Madigan runs and wins, Gov. Rauner would appoint her replacement. Wouldn’t that be a sight to behold?===
That is the best part of any speculation.
Period.
- Amalia - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:35 am:
Quigley?!?
- A guy... - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:40 am:
Kirk helped Rauner immensely. Rauner can help neutralize any financial largesse coming from the right or the left.
Tammy would be nuts to run. As a GOPer, it would open up a seat that she has because of some crossover appeal, but the GOP is definitely in the game there.
Lisa is smart and very calculated on the risk management side. She wouldn’t run for any office she’s not the odds on favorite to win. No polling will ever show that. Her last name, despite what I think is a good performance in office, is becoming increasingly an albatross.
The rest of them; Foster (you’ve gotta be kidding me, but another seat the GOP can grab), Quigley (rising star with too much risk to give up a safe seat- and not a pickup opportunity)the State Senators (dream on!)
Kirk’s in if he wants it.
- Angry Chicagoan - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:42 am:
Also, how many of those Kirk people have left for Rauner? That’s an attractive opportunity for a Republican wonk.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:45 am:
A Guy,
I get that you don’t seem to like Foster, but voters sure seem to like him.
- orzo - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:51 am:
Duckworth has won twice in a district that was Republican. If she runs a statewide race, she adds all the Chicago and other Democratic votes (including Cook suburbs). I agree that her House seat could switch back if she ran for Senate, but I think she would be a strong candidate.
One point on Raoul: he was all but ready to run for AG until Lisa decided to stay in that office. He does not intend to be a State Senator forever (and Congressman Rush’s seat will involve a pack of challengers when it opens up).
- Southwest Cook - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:52 am:
I don’t think Lisa will run either. The race will definitely be close, but I think Kirk would beat everyone else mentioned in the article. The best option for Democrats may be Tom Dart.
- Calvin - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:54 am:
Foster is not a bad candidate, but he is a one time loser in 2010 to Randy Hultgren. He is a self funder though. Has the Science teacher look with no charisma, and only won due to a gerrymandered district.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:54 am:
I think Bill Daley will run. Then drop out. That’s what he does.
- sss - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:59 am:
Funny, the Romans thought I is one, too.
- Calvin - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:01 am:
Chris Kennedy would be better than Dart.
Good catch on Rauner replacing Madigan as AG if she beat Kirk. No way the Machine gives up that post, Lisa is not running. What other appointments does Rauner get to make when he takes office? McPier? State Police??
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:05 am:
=== Kirk could squish the relatively unknown state senators. ===
LOL.
Unless Mark Kirk is planning on voting with President Obama and against Mitch McConnell at every turn, the advantage goes to the Democrat in this race, no matter who it is.
Beware City Hall reporters, Statehouse Reporters, and DC reporters who spend all of their time in City Hall, at the rail or in the rotunda.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:06 am:
I’m not buying the “Democrats fear a GOP appointed AG.”
The post has historically been sort of toothless. It has never been something used to root out corruption and it is simply not set up that way.
Democrats would much rather have a U.S. Senate seat than the IL AG.
Still, I just don’t see Lisa Madigan as making the move.
- sss - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:07 am:
Also, the things I think I know:
1) nobody waits for Lisa this time.
2) Kwame is running.
3) Tammy is running.
4) Kurt Summers??? What’s the line of succession again if Rahm becomes VP? (I say with a smirk)
5) Kirk gets a weak primary and loads of PAC money from new IL GOP operation.
6) House and Senate GOP get fortten. But at least they get pension bumps by joining administration.
7) 2 cycles ago at this time, nobody new Barack, Rod was the first democratic governor in 35 years, and was riding a den wave that would snowball in 2004 and 2008.
- Almost the Weekend - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:13 am:
Some thoughts from the only intriguing race in 2016. I can’t imagine any close congressional races with Rodney Davis working his district so hard the past two years.
I would love to see Kwame run he has put in his time and done a great job. However, seems more like a gubernatorial candidate in 2018 in my opinion. Bill Foster I would be very very interested too if I knew I was going to be in the minority for the next 6 years. Has no name ID outside his district and/or accomplishments, good luck with that.
I think Andy Manar is the wild card: the 2014 election showed he worked his tail off around the district and with Pat Quinn running several stories above him on the same ticket. A pro-life Democrat running statewide for a US Senate seat in a crowded Chicago primary. Could get very interesting. Then if he survives the primary, he could win downstate easily with Kirk’s stances on social issues. Manar would receive enough coat tails in Chicago with Hillary to beat Kirk. I think Bustos waits for Durbin’s seat in 2020.
- Del Clinkton - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:16 am:
Gee, only won due to a gerrymandered district. Want real term limits? Amend the Constitution of the United States of America to end that practice. Force candidates to run for office with the actual people in their district. Gosh I wonder how we wound up this mess in Illinois and Nationally?
- Champaign Lover - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:17 am:
Mike. Frerichs.
- William j Kelly - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:18 am:
Gooner, you should wait till after the filing date for aldermanic candidates has passed before floating your name… Or a ….. Brendan Riley’s name for higher office.
- Calvin - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:19 am:
After Rauner’s huge vote totals downstate, you cannot assume they will abandon Kirk in 2016. After all they are both very Moderate.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:20 am:
Some people have curious thoughts as to the power of the Illinois AG office.
Check the statutes and budget for that gig.
- Calvin - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:21 am:
Right, Frerichs should consult Governor Rutherford first.
- Calvin - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:23 am:
AG does not have Grand Jury power, but still a very high profile elected post. Do the Democrats want to allow a Republican to use that position as a future stepping stone?
- Almost the Weekend - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:23 am:
=After Rauner’s huge vote totals downstate, you cannot assume they will abandon Kirk in 2016. After all they are both very Moderate.=
I do like the idea of Mark Kirk running a campaign, “anybody, but Pat Quinn.” Probably work well in St. Clair and Madison County.
- Southwest Cook - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:24 am:
Manar wouldn’t make it out of the primary, and if he did Downstate will still vote for Kirk based on national party label. Manar may flip Macoupin and a couple other heavy union counties, but not enough for Kirk’s suburban strength.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:27 am:
Hey Bill, great news –
I’m not hearing of any challengers to Brendan Reilly.
If you somehow manage to get on the ballot, you can finish second! That’s a huge step up for you!
But you won’t make the ballot. Not your shtick. You have not shown any strength in the “figure out basics of elections” thing.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:32 am:
But in any case, I have heard nothing indicating that either Reilly or Will Burns will make the race. Both seem pretty happy where they are, at least for now.
I just tossed their names out their because I think both would make very effective candidates.
I actually suspect if Burns ran, the field may clear. Other than Duckworth, I’m not sure who would want to take him on. It would be expensive, and Burns would win.
- Put the Fun in unfunded - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:35 am:
Strong words from Kirk who barely beat a very weak candidate (Alexi) with 48% in a non-presidential, GOP wave year nationally. He has to say he’s running to keep relevance within the caucus for now, but I still think a deal gets cut for Rauner to appoint whomever Kirk wants to succeed him.
- R.S. - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:40 am:
Someone in DC floated Dart’s name in the Politico story below. Don’t see him or anyone else who passed up a shot at this seat when it was open 4 years ago suddenly jumping in now…that includes Lisa. It will be interesting to see if Reid/Schumer/Durbin and the DSCC get involved in recruiting a candidate, or if they just let a primary take its course.
The DC crew would probably like Duckworth the most. But I agree with the earlier post that her electoral performances have been underwhelming. Kwame would be tough to beat in a multi-candidate field if he was the only African-American candidate.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2016-elections-key-states-112801.html
- Anonymous - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:41 am:
Gooner please I and many others beg you please don’t bait you know who into any worthless dialogue.
And yes William I am referencing you
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:42 am:
Will Burns is some statewide juggernaut? I had to give it a think as to who he was, and I’m pretty informed.
Historically, the Chicago City Council is usually the end of the line for politicians. Very few go on to bigger things.
I can’t think of any Chicago alderman who has won a statewide race.
- Almost the Weekend - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:53 am:
=Manar wouldn’t make it out of the primary, and if he did Downstate will still vote for Kirk based on national party label. Manar may flip Macoupin and a couple other heavy union counties, but not enough for Kirk’s suburban strength.=
If there are 3+ candidates from Cook County running for US Senate and one downstate candidate. It would get very interesting. Look at Blago in 2002. Although he is from Chicago he won only 28% in Cook County, but cruised downstate. I agree the general election would be more difficult, but with a crowded Dem Primary, Manar could pull it out.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:54 am:
Just because people are jumping ship from Kirk ahead of 2016 doesn’t mean he won’t run. Could just mean they think hell lose, in a blue state in a presidential year, as a tier 1 target of the national Dems.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 11:55 am:
Burns, Reilly…yikes.
Alderman run for Congress if they are bored (Roman Pucinski), they don’t run for US Senate after sitting in the Council.
To the Post.
I commented a while back that Lisa might be best suited to rub for Senate;
Get out of the Guv discussion, family can hold Illinois base for her, Hillary/Lisa, seemed like a nice fit…
Duckworth is clearing the field, announcing very early, “I’m in” and closing the door for many, not Lisa, but many others who aren’t Lisa, but are pretenders to the next level in 2 short years.
Kirk’s very immediate, like Monday morning immediate, is the primary challenge he will face. Rauner’s money network will aid the funding in defeating the primary foe(s).
That is the only worry, today, Kirk has; getting out of the primary.
Kirk doesn’t get out of the primary, Tammy, Lisa, Will Burns…ok, Tammy and Lisa…they aren’t a worry for Kirk.
Being in the majority, Kirk will get more exposure too, and anytime Kirk is on, it’s only helping him.
For Kirk, this is all about the primary, for Duckworth, it’s all about trying to clear the field for her OWN primary.
Any discussion about the General, is ridiculously misguided to what is actually going on here.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:02 pm:
Willie, Pucinski actually went from Congress to the City Council. Lipinski went from the City Council to Congress.
Pucinski ran for Senate once and got clobbered by Percy.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:06 pm:
- Wordslinger -.
Yikes. My bad. Right idea, wrong street.
I am a Dope.
Thanks for correcting.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:10 pm:
Oswego, I don’t think any of the old time Chicago aldermen could ever run a real race for Senate. People like Burke or Mell (if they were young enough) would get crushed either in a primary or a general.
But there are a few around now that have shown independence to win.
Anybody who has spent time with Will Burns knows that he’s on his way up. The guy can write his own ticket. Mayor, Gov., Senate — one day he will hold one of those positions if he wants it. He’s extremely effective both in government and running a campaign.
Reilly, on the other hand, can be a bit more harsh than Burns. He’s more likely to get into a battle, including some that he can’t win. But keep in mind that he won relatively easily over Natarus, and in ward that may be the most Republican in the City, he had no opponent last time and I haven’t heard of a challenger (yes, I live in the old 42nd/new 2nd general area). Republicans like the guy, and Democrats consider him part of the team. He would make a good candidate.
Still, I doubt Reilly does it. Burns? Not sure, but if he does, I will write him a check.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:16 pm:
Wordslinger,
Right now, the Democrats have no state-wide juggernauts. They thought they did with Alexi, and that turned out laughably wrong.
They’ve got some very good people in AAA who could make it though. Bustos, Foster, and the two aldermen I mentioned would be on that list.
What they have to do now is look at the bench and see who has the appeal to win big in Chicago and also put up margins in Cook County and then not terribly alienate people elsewhere. The people I mentioned could do that.
- Southwest Cook - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:21 pm:
The last Chicago alderman (although not sitting at the time) to be elected statewide may be Paul Douglas to the US Senate in 1948, but that was when the city had over 40% of the statewide vote instead of 20% today.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:27 pm:
===Anybody who has spent time with Will Burns knows that he’s on his way up. The guy can write his own ticket. Mayor, Gov., Senate — one day he will hold one of those positions if he wants it. He’s extremely effective both in government and running a campaign.===
Well, I hope he doesn’t hold them all at once…
Before you canonize Mr. Will Burns keep this in mind;
The path to move up and out is the GA, and then theyvtrybti BE aldermen, (lol), or go to Congress, Countywide, but not statewide from the City Council.
Many more punches of tickets before Governor, United States Senator…and as for Mayor, it looks like that is 4 years away. That’s an eternity.
Will Burns is in a long line, that is the wrong line, today, for those lofty goals you set.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:29 pm:
“The path to move up and out is the GA, and then the next step is to BE aldermen, (lol), or go to Congress, Countywide, but not statewide from the City Council.”
- Tom Joad - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:29 pm:
Chicago aldermen for U. S. Senator? Dream on.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:35 pm:
Kirk is running for reelection.
He has to tell us what he has done to earn it.
I’m coming up with nothing.
And if he keeps bringing up his health, then it is fine for his political opponents to do the same. Right now, it seems that’s all he has got.
C’mon Senator, tell us what you’ve done for us over the past four years. You have two years to show us. That is what reelections are about. YOU.
The Democrats should look outside their political circle for someone new. Find a businesswoman, not another government political hack.
- Anonymoiis - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:35 pm:
==A Pro life, pro gun (basically pro Republican Party platform) libertarian candidate in the general would be a real problem for sen. Mark ‘I is one’ Kirk.==
No more than one was in 2010, with funding help from the Dems, or did you forget Mike Labno? Most people have too.
A lot of Kirk’s staff has been in and out and back since 2010, people are reading way too much into that.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:35 pm:
Oswego,
I think what you are saying has been historically true. There was a progression.
And I strongly agree with you that a seat in Congress would be a more effective platform than an Aldermanic seat. That’s why I think Bustos would probably be the Democrats best chance.
But I also think that a few aldermen could make that leap.
I do disagree with you on county-wide, at least in Chicago. That seems to be no better than many other positions (or total outsiders for that matter). I just don’t see a real future for Dart or Alvarez, despite some talk. I’m just not sure that county-wide electeds have all that much respect from voters.
Basically Oswego we are on the page. Again, I think the two Aldermen I mentioned could be exceptions to the general rule that we both recognize.
- Taller - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:38 pm:
=== I think Bustos waits for Durbin’s seat in 2020. ===
Help…I don’t get the Bustos angle. I thought consensus was a marginal candidate in a blue district. She won, but it was Schilling after all. Statewide possibilities?
- Toure's Latte - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:40 pm:
Staff bails with two years left on a non-runner. No one wants to be last off the boat looking for a new job.
Throw Michelle Obama into the mix.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 12:58 pm:
===Again, I think the two Aldermen I mentioned could be exceptions to the general rule that we both recognize.===
Congressman v. Alderman, statewide?
State Senator v. Alderman, statewide?
Will Burns is in the wrong line. Will Burns needs a ticket with more punches, running on his Aldermanic seat, and not as LG, but for Governor, Senator…as Ald. Will Burns, the candidate?
There is a reason Chicago Aldermen don’t make that jump; too many lilly pads skipped.
- Team Sleep - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:15 pm:
I love speculation on stuff like this.
My personal belief is that Senator Raoul will run for Governor in 2018. I think AG Madigan stays put. Senator Manar is intriguing but I could see him running for the 13th CD. It pains me to say it, but I think Congressman Foster makes a lot of sense. He has some cash and has proven himself to be a pretty decent campaigner. He’s boring. So what?! Not too many U.S. Senators are lighting the world on fire. And the ones who are loud and boisterous are either nuts or calculatedly interesting.
I’m also not sure I follow people’s logic on some of Senator Kirk’s staff “jumping ship” to work for Governor-elect Rauner. Why wouldn’t Mike Z leave to become Rauner’s chief of staff?! That’s a dream job for a lot of political staffers. And it’s not like Mike Z has no connection there; he was on Mr. Rauner’s campaign team in a very high-level capacity. People read too much into this stuff.
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:20 pm:
I agree with some above that it is too early in her career for Duckworth, but that’s just conventional wisdom. Her military service et al. got her into Congress, but it only carries so far. The question then becomes, how have you distinguished yourself in Congress? I don’t think she has yet, nor has Foster. And if Lisa Madigan gets in, either one gets trounced.
- Thunder Fred - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:30 pm:
Valerie Jarrett. With Hillary on top of the ticket and Barry stumping hard in the homeland.
- Anonymous - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:40 pm:
To Gooner,
no Democrat believed in Alexi. The freaking President didn’t want him to run for peet’s sake.
- Anonymous - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:43 pm:
“No way I retire”
What the heck has he been doing? Oh yeah, that’s right. NOT working recovering from a serious health problem.
And Senator Kirk got paid $175,000 recovering while he voted against unemployment benefits to people like my dad making $12,000 a year.
That’s one heck of a guy.
And all you need to know about the “character” of Mark Kirk.
- Roadiepig - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:47 pm:
(sorry` had work to do and just got back here):
So. Ill and Rich- I wasn’t taking his “I is one” reply seriously. I am a fan of Kirk’s and would vote for him again. He is about as far from folksy as any politician I can think of (most “folksy” types don’t have a wardrobe that can compair to Mark’s), but it just irks me when politicians “play down” to the regular folks by droppin’ their g’s, talking in slang, or dumbing down their speech if they think it fits the audience. My apologies if it took his reply out of context.
- Roadiepig - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:51 pm:
One more thing- I don’t think anyone mentioned here today would stand a shot of beating Kirk in 2016. Things can change a lot in two years, but unless something major happens to cause problems for him, he will come out on top again.
Just my “outsider’s” opinion.
- Because I said so..... - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:58 pm:
Dart still has young kids and that was his excuse last time. He is also a notoriously lousy campaigner.
My guess is Lisa is in line for Durbin’s spot at the end of this term.
How about Sheila Simon? That’s my joke for the day.
- AFSCME Steward - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 1:59 pm:
This race sums up the state of the ILGOP. The Dems have a long list of viable candidates to challenge Kirk. The ILGOP could only find Obie to run against Durbin.
Rauner may have won the governorship, but the ILGOP has a long way to go if it wants to be relevent.
- Anonymoiis - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:00 pm:
==The freaking President didn’t want him to run for peet’s sake.==
For not wanting Alexi to run, the President,First Lady, and the VP were all here a lot in 2010 campaigning hard for him.
- Anonymoiis - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:07 pm:
==The ILGOP could only find Obie to run against Durbin.==
That’s more a matter of being wise enough to pick your battles than a sign of nobody qualified to run. It would’ve taken a miracle for anyone to beat Durbin. There are names that could run Statewide, and will be even better positioned to do so in coking years if they choose, namely a few or three Congressman, but they aren’t foolish enough to make that first Statewide race against a largely popular incumbent in a Blue State.
- AFSCME Steward - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:09 pm:
Anonymoiis
“That’s more a matter of being wise enough to pick your battles than a sign of nobody qualified to run. It would’ve taken a miracle for anyone to beat Durbin. There are names that could run Statewide, and will be even better positioned to do so in coking years if they choose, namely a few or three Congressman, but they aren’t foolish enough to make that first Statewide race against a largely popular incumbent in a Blue State.”
Is Durbin really all that popular. The race with Obie was a lot closer than most expected. I only voted for Durbin because I couldn’t see myself supporting Obie, ever.
- Anonymous - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:18 pm:
High time for Dale Righter to usurp Kirk’s position and claim his rightful throne.
- DuPage Dave - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:19 pm:
I think Lisa Madigan would crush Mark Kirk if she runs in 2016. Kirk was lucky to have the truly awful Alexi Giannoulias as his opponent last time. Kirk’s accomplishments as a Senator are minimal.
As for a Rauner-named replacement AG- so what? What exactly would that person do that would be so interesting?
- Percival - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:20 pm:
I always thought that one of the GOP gubernatorial candidates should have run against Durbin. A better candidate, the Republican wave, and who can now say? But “we hear not the airy footsteps of the strange things that almost happen.” - Hawthorne
- The Muse - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:21 pm:
The Duckworth nod is intriguing especially if you have H. Clinton at the top of the ticket in 2016.
Rumor mill: Lisa Madigan wanted to wait until her daughters finished school before making any serious runs, AND, the big one, for her father to retire… But rumors are what they are and it sure looked like she was interested last time around.
- David Coppafeel - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:25 pm:
Kirk will stomp anyone not named Lisa Madigan or Michelle Obama.
- Reader - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:39 pm:
With Republicans gaining control of the U.S. Senate, will this dynamic affect how a moderate Republican such as Mark Kirk is treated by the more conservative members of the Republican Conference? Moderate Republican senators have sometimes been marginalized and/or bullied around by their more conservative Republican peers when they have had control of the U.S. Senate. Just in the last several years, Jim Jeffords, Arlen Specter, and Lincoln Chafee faced such a difficult time with their more conservative Republican peers that they ended up leaving the Republican Party.
- Rick - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 2:40 pm:
Gooner
As countywide officials, Dart and Alvarez are elected to represent 5 million constituents….and both are on Chicago television at least once a week, giving them regular exposure to more than 70 percent of the statewide electorate.
Reilly and Burns are two of 50 Chicago aldermen, and they represent about 55,000 constituents each. Aldermen usually don’t appear on Chicago TV unless they are being chased by cameras outside the Dirksen Building after posting bail.
From which platform would you prefer to launch a statewide campaign?
- low level - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 3:18 pm:
To borrow the words of Sen. Kirk: you better frickin’ bring your A+++ game, Senator, because you’ve voted with that great moderate Mitch McConnell more than 95% of the time.
I’ll take most any Democrat over you, but its unlikely to be anyone that doesn’t already have a FEC account by the 1st of the year.
Sure, any of the state, county or municipal office holders coukd run but remember they have to start from scratch with a Federal account. None of their state money can be used on a Federal race.
- Johnny Anonymous - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 3:28 pm:
Lisa Madigan would be dems #1 pick.
Burns would be a quality candidate and could skip over the ‘lillipads’ which not too many could do. He would have statewide appeal.
If Manar won a statewide Dem primary I’d be surprised but its not impossible. But if he did, a big IF, he’d be an appealing fresh new face for Democrats which is needed. It would definitely turn the tables we are used to on geography. Its hard to define him in a conservative/liberal framework. He trounces republicans in a conservative downstate district despite their money and the votes he’s taken that very few downstate legislators would even think about.
- AFSCME Steward - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 3:33 pm:
Reader
“With Republicans gaining control of the U.S. Senate, will this dynamic affect how a moderate Republican such as Mark Kirk is treated by the more conservative members of the Republican Conference? Moderate Republican senators have sometimes been marginalized and/or bullied around by their more conservative Republican peers when they have had control of the U.S. Senate. Just in the last several years, Jim Jeffords, Arlen Specter, and Lincoln Chafee faced such a difficult time with their more conservative Republican peers that they ended up leaving the Republican Party.”
Kirk taking a stand against hardline conservatives would be a plus in Illinois.
If Duckworth is the Dem nominee it would be a good race, two moderates with impressive credentials.
- A guy... - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 4:31 pm:
===Gooner - Friday, Nov 14, 14 @ 10:45 am:
A Guy,
I get that you don’t seem to like Foster, but voters sure seem to like him.===
Like, dislike, no difference G. He’s a boring campaigner. Won, lost, won. The Senate is a statewide campaign and he’s not an ambitious campaigner. Duckworth is good on the trail, but has a hard time doing it. Quigley is the most formidable of the group. He’s got a sure thing and he’s moving up. He’ll move up even faster in his party in the minority. He hustles, he’s a great campaigner, and he’s not a hard line lefty. (none of these 3 really are). Kirk is pretty safe pending his own health. Foster is just a old fogey kind of guy. A snoozer. I’m predicting that in 2016, anyone who looks or acts old will be at a big disadvantage. That includes Hillary.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Sunday, Nov 16, 14 @ 10:06 pm:
Braun was in her first term as Cook County Recorder of Deeds when she won the Democratic Nomination and eventually the US Senate.
No one, no one had heard of Barack Obama before he ran.
Anyone who thinks that Will Burns, Brendan Reilly, Dan Kotowski, Andy Manar or any one else “can’t” win is delusional.
This ain’t your dad’s political party where we promote folks up the political ladder. The person who wins the
Nomination will be the one who runs at Kirk the hardest.
To paraphrase Carville, why would we nominate someone to defend our values that won’t even defend themselves?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 17, 14 @ 8:19 am:
- YDD -,
I think you are a bit delusional;
CMB was at least county-wide.
Barak Obama, state senator.
Alderman?
Nope.
===…Dan Kotowski, Andy Manar or any one else “can’t” win is delusional.===
Kowtowski and Manar coming from the GA have more of a base of colleagues to do what need to be done.
Heck, according to your logic, Frerichs didn’t need to need to be state senator to get his leg up to rub for Treasurer, right?
You know better. Will Burns is on the wrobg road. Run countywide, it get to Congress, then call me…
It doesn’t work that way, Alderman to statewide.
Too many lily pads.
- Gooner - Monday, Nov 17, 14 @ 8:40 am:
Sure Oswego.
Neither Burns nor Reilly have any friends or colleagues in Springfield. Thanks for pointing that out. Nope, they don’t know anybody.
Better to be somebody like SA Alvarez, or Dart, who most would blame for everything from crime numbers to budget busting.
Yeah, countywide is way better.
Now what’s that word that Oswego is also tossing around?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 17, 14 @ 9:16 am:
- Gooner -,
When was the last Chicago Alderman elected United States Senator from Illinois?
(Crickets)
Alderman in Chicago isn’t the platform for statewide runs.
It’s not. Get over it. There are tickets to be punched.
Sorry.
- Gooner - Monday, Nov 17, 14 @ 9:35 am:
Well, it hasn’t happened before?
Then GOOLLLEEEE, Oswego! It can never happen in 2016, because nothing changes over time!
Which is why I look forward to the swearing in of Gov. Dorothy Brown!
In reality, Oswego, you are not from here. You may understand how things work way out west, where county wide is a big deal, but 1) you don’t understand Cook County; and yet 2) you feel compelled to offer an extremely strong opinion on it.
Oswego, times have changed.
Countywide doesn’t mean a thing. People can win without moving your little ladder.
The dinosaurs need to figure that out.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 17, 14 @ 9:52 am:
- Gooner -,
Can you name a Chicago Alderman that has gone from the City Council to the US Senate?
You can’t. It’s not about me, it’s about the path.
The oath isn’t the city council.
I had a discussion like this about countywide and congress and even citywide offices.
Maybe I’ll check out that discussion too, - Gooner -, this one sounds pretty familiar