|
He’s good at what he does, but he can’t do everything
Wednesday, Nov 19, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * Yep…
* More…
I’m gonna push back on this just a bit because it’s become almost a Biblical truism that Madigan can override every Rauner veto. * Unlike the Senate, Madigan has the bare minimum needed to override. He doesn’t have Cullerton’s cushion. And he has more conservative Democratic members than the Senate does. Rep. Jack Franks isn’t exactly a team player on revenue and budget issues. And neither is Rep. Carol Sente. Rauner did really well in suburban Cook County and in Lake County, which puts legislators like Reps. Michelle Mussman, Fred Crespo, Sam Yingling, Scott Drury and others on the bubble. Despite the folklore, Madigan can’t just order his members to vote a certain way. And he rarely if ever asks a member to take a vote that could harm a member’s district or harm a member’s reelection chances. * This furious House campaign season wasn’t about overriding Rauner next year. It was about fighting off Rauner’s attempt to take seats away from Madigan. The Speaker is one of the most competitive people I’ve ever met. Madigan didn’t actually try to win a super majority two years ago, but once he obtained it, he wasn’t gonna let some guy like Rauner (or anybody else) take it away from him. He could’ve just let Cloonen’s seat go and focused on more winnable races, but he dumped a ton of resources into that district, including 50 or so of his best 13th Ward captains. * Rep. Cloonen, by the way, earns mad props for her own door to door efforts. She’s one of the hardest workers Madigan has in the House, and that’s why he rewarded her with such an intense push. Signs don’t vote, but they can be an indication of a strong organization, and as I told subscribers before the election, I was astonished during a cruise through my grandma’s old Kankakee neighborhood at how many Cloonen signs I saw.
|
 |
|
|
- Bourbonrich - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:01 am:
I think it’s interesting that while the State race was competitive in Kankakee County, the County Board has 23 GOPers out of 28. I often hear complaints about gerrymandering but for an area that is very evenly divided, the County Board districts are a clear example of gerrymandering.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:09 am:
===for an area that is very evenly divided===
It’s not. That district lost a lot of Dem turf in the remap, mainly to bolster south suburban incumbents. The county itself is pretty darned GOP and Cloonen’s baseline vote is maybe 40 percent. If the K3 Dems had MJM’s captains and candidates of Cloonen’s calibre, then, yeah, they could be competitive. But don’t hold your breath.
- Bourbonrich - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:13 am:
I agree that the Dems lost turf in the remap but Cloonen has won twice. I think the County Board drew the maps much the way the State Dems drew the State. Cloonen’s District is one of the only ones that has had competitive races. I think the local GOP is stunned for the second election in a row.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:20 am:
===Madigan didn’t actually try to win a super majority two years ago, but once he obtained it, he wasn’t gonna let some guy like Rauner (or anybody else) take it away from him.===
Great line.
That’s why keeping the 71 was more important in the big picture than looking at the statewide Governor’s Race as more pivotal.
No way was MJM going to be outworked in the precincts for House seats. No way.
- train111 - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:21 am:
I don’t think 79 lost alot of Democratic turf in the remap.
The gerrymander does put the reddest part of Kankakee County in District 34, so Cloonen’s portion is a wee bit less red. Also those 4 townships in Southeastern Grundy County that were attached onto the 79th are pretty strongly Democratic-so some pretty Democratic turf was added on.
- Big Joe - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:23 am:
Michelle Mussman is my rep, and I was very impressed with her walking through my neighborhood, door to door. When our conversation on issues got lengthy, she came into my house and discussed things with me for over 20 minutes. She always answers my emails promptly, and has even called my house to discuss my concerns. She actually seems to listen to her constituents. Her opponent, Moynihan, never saw or heard from him beyond the seemingly millions of pieces of propaganda mail sent almost daily. IMO, the best candidate won the 56th.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:29 am:
The GOP needs to kick itself for losing this one, or losing another one when so many huge assets were dispatched here to win it for the Dem side. If MJM sent all those blue berets into this district, it means Conroy, Moylan, Yingling and Sente didn’t have them. There are only so many of that caliber available. Something should have given somewhere. Good strategy lesson for the next match. Figure out where the blue berets are, attack somewhere else.
- Conservative Republican - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:30 am:
= as I told subscribers before the election, I was astonished during a cruise through my grandma’s old Kankakee neighborhood at how many Cloonen signs I saw. ==
You have a grandmother?
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:30 am:
And Mitt further “endeared” himself by vocing radio ads for Nixon — who proved to be a stiff 2 years ago — could this be akin to the Blagoofian “wallflower” slur leveled at Rep. Bradley? It pretty much ended Blagoof before he even started
- walker - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:34 am:
===Despite the folklore, Madigan can’t just order his members to vote a certain way. And he rarely if ever asks a member to take a vote that could harm a member’s district or harm a member’s reelection chances.”===
I wish more people understood this. Madigan doesn’t manage individual members or specific votes, as much as he manages processes.
Add one more — he often faces pushback from the bulk of his caucus on an issue, and meets his obligations as its leader, while still voting personally the other way on the floor. He himself, is one of the more “conservative” Dems on many issues.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:35 am:
It’s any easy dodge to pretend that Madigan is all-powerful. I don’t think Edgar, Pâté or Emil Jones thought he was the king of Sprimgfield.
- Kankakee County Resident - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:37 am:
Rep. Cloonen simply out worked Nixon. She knocked the same doors 4 and 5 time over.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:37 am:
===so some pretty Democratic turf was added on===
Nothing like what was taken away. Dugan won that district by 10 points in 2010, and they didn’t even contest it in 2008.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:38 am:
Also, she won her first race (against a Pangle) by 5 points.
- Not it - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:50 am:
Bourbonrich: I assume from your comment that you are a Democrat, and for a Democrat to complain about gerrymandering is pretty laughable.
I will remind you of the following part of this post: “Madigan didn’t actually try to win a supermajority two years ago…”
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 10:51 am:
I think what I find fascinating every two years is that the HDem Crews in those districts understand the ground gave to maximize returns to win.
Where the H&SGOP “fail” is from the beginning, not the last two weeks;
* Recruitment of mirroring candidates to their districts
* Map understanding
* “The Program” - incumbency protection
* Very specific district polling
* Not “precinct by precinct”. Block. By. Block.
* Focus on the House win, someone else needs to worry about other things…
It’s so ridiculously pure to that seat, while part of “The Program”, you add specific ground troops to an almost 18 month plan leading to the last 6 weeks, you get to 71 seats.
Again;
Turnout is between 45%-59%. That is loads of voters left on the table. Loads. Hard work and smart work wins. Blaming the Jerry Clarke Map doesn’t excuse how all these voters, never got to the polls.
It’s a credit to the HDems here that the voters that DID vote, “happen” to vote “their way”.
The H&SGOP will get better.
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:01 am:
Edgar mentioned that once Madigan trusted him, things went a little more smoothly. While Madigan likely can’t command his super-majority as a block to override a Rauner veto, he does have a lot more influence about what bills get bottled up in committee, and which ones get to the floor for a vote. I’m assuming that’s why Willy emphasized that Rauner’s LLs will be very important. Madigan will want to build that trust, but verify it too. Without assurances from the governor on whether he will sign a bill if it gets to him, without any veto manipulation, I’m thinking the bill will be bottled up in committee until those assurances are obtained.
- Bourbonrich - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:04 am:
I served many years as a GOP election judge. I am one of many who is adrift from parties as a social liberal and fiscal conservative. Gerry mandered districts are in the eye of the beholder.
- k3 - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:08 am:
I’d say Kankakee County isn’t as Republican as it used to be. Democrats just have to work harder to win. 3 countywide electeds are Democrats and Toi Hutchinson won the K3 Co part of her district 55-45% and she’s not exactly a conservative.
The county board districts were redrawn and the Dems went from 10 seats down to 6. Not to get really parochial, but there are 28 districts consisting of 2-3 precincts each. There used to be large multi-member districts and when they were drawn that way, the Dems consistently had between 11-13 members.
Rich-you are right about the 79th dist. If those University Park precincts were left in rather than expanding the district to western Kankakee Co, it would be almost a safe seat. Still, Hutchinson does very well in the current 79th…
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:12 am:
===I’m assuming that’s why Willy emphasized that Rauner’s LLs will be very important. Madigan will want to build that trust, but verify it too. Without assurances from the governor on whether he will sign a bill if it gets to him, without any veto manipulation,===
You are Spot On. That is exactly my intent in commenting as such. Perfect.
- Try-4-Truth - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:15 am:
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again here; Mike Madigan is not evil. He’ll work with anyone. He just won’t work against his interests. Why would anyone do that? Why he’s painted as “evil” and “corrupt” is that he’s so much better than everyone else at this politics thing, that no one has figured out a way to beat him. He’s powerful, yes, but he’s earned his power (through democracy by the way, not totalitarianism).
So many people get elected and think they are the greatest thing since crazy bread. They are not as good as Speaker Madigan or his organization. Period.
- the Patriot - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:19 am:
Madigan has three problems, they are past, present, and future.
The fiscal and economic reality of our state proves his past policies have failed. Quinn was the opponent, but he was running on 12 years of policy driven mostly by Madigan.
Present, Rauner has proven he has the finances to give legislators a fighting chance in their next election. Republicans and democrats alike do not want to be the target of the Speaker in the next cycle simply because of Funding. Rauner equals the playing field.
Future-The Speaker is 72, if you are not near your pension you have to ask yourself how much longer loyalty to the Speaker is going to yeild dividend to you and your constituents.
Ironically this is Rauner’s game. Simply due to Madigan’s age a takeover is going to happen. You don’t want to be the first guy to sell out, but you don’t want to be the last guy either.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:27 am:
===Simply due to Madigan’s age a takeover is going to happen===
His dad died early, but his mom lived into her 90s. Keep that in mind.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:34 am:
===Simply due to Madigan’s age a takeover is going to happen===
The road is littered with people waiting on Father Time to catch MJM.
Good luck with that.
If your plan is to indeed wait him out, or “age” him put of relevancy, pack a lunch for that.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 11:57 am:
===You have a grandmother? ===
She passed away earlier this year.
- train111 - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 12:04 pm:
FWIW Nixon gained 11 votes in the Will County area of the district. That leaves Cloonen at +103 with the Grundy County (Democratic leaning) portion still out.
- train111 - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 12:32 pm:
The Grundy County vote is now in as well: Cloonen +19
For a final margin of 122 — up from 91 a couple of years ago
- Archiesmom - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 12:35 pm:
Congratulations to Kate, who worked phenomenally hard to keep that seat. She was constantly out there in the field. And all the local Dems pitched in to help close the deal.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 12:55 pm:
If your plan is to indeed wait him out, or “age” him put of relevancy, pack a lunch for that.
Kinda like the Bears waiting for the Packers to draft an average QB.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 1:19 pm:
===And all the local Dems pitched in to help close the deal.===
They pitched in to help save the seat. This win is definitely not “closing the deal”. If local Dems closed the deal, MJM wouldn’t have had to send in the Blue Berets to “save the deal”. Big dif.
- anon - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 1:53 pm:
The fact is that targets on both sides of the aisle are given recommendations about how to vote on any bills where a bad vote (usually a Yes) could be used against them. Targets generally heed the advice.
- PollVaulter - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 2:06 pm:
Let’s not forget to give props to Shugart who with minimal party support gave Jim Durkin a scare of a lifetime in the neighboring 75th district. . Internal polls showed a huge surge trending in Shugart’s favor. Shugart, better known as the nurse from Morris was seen pounding the pavement day in and day out. In the end she managed to win many traditional r precincts despite being severely underfunded. In the final three weeks Durkin hit the panic button and sent in a slew of house republican staffers to walk the 75th , reportedly pulling them away from neighboring districts, Mautino’s and Cloonen’s to name a few. Durkin’s priority shifted from picking up a few seats to protecting his only African American republican within his caucus. Seems Durkin took his eye off the ball….major fail!
- jim - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 3:06 pm:
Rich, who are you kidding? when madigan really wants to win, he wins — just like with the super-majority.
- Coffee Cup - Wednesday, Nov 19, 14 @ 3:33 pm:
Pollvaulter is correct about Martha Shugart from Morris, Illinois running a very good campaign despite being underfunded and undermanned. I was surprised at how many Grundy County Republicans had erected Shugart signs for her. If Madigan had given her any support at all, she would likely have taken the election. She had John Anthony and Jim Durkin worried. She has much to be proud of and nothing to be ashamed of. She used to be a Republican so I was really surprised to see her run on the Democrat ticket in this election? Especially when I saw that Madigan did absolutely nothing to help her out.